Tax loss selling

[gfp]

Looking at the S&P equal weight or S&P "Value" index, they are red every day for 10 days in a row or something like that while the S&P500 is generally flat.  Seems like tax loss selling has produced a predictable opportunity for some of these beach balls being held underwater to bounce upwards starting around now. 

 

Here is a thread for folks to list their current favorite opportunities that appear to be pushed lower by this dynamic.

 

JOE ?

TDW / VAL ?

OXY ?

 

I have some that are too small to list.

 

What have you all noticed?  List some names, the time for these types of trades is this week

 

edit - I should add that unprofitable short capitulations also count - TSLA would be an example I suppose

Edited December 16 by gfp

[Luke]

EVO.AB?

 

IPCO?

 

 

[Dinar]

CP, JOE, MSGE

[backtothebeach]

CELH

[Gregmal]

NKE

[Longnose]

BABA

[Saluki]

My basket of shipping is in the toilet. More people pumping crude hurts oil prices but should be good for VLCCs and product tankers, yet rates suck now. STNG, TEN, FRO, DHT INSW all down big in just a few months.

[zzzyx]

BWEL

[lnofeisone]

VET

[wisowis]

On the Canadian side, Bell, as @Jaygo pointed out here:

 

This is a beloved stock for the dividend-craving retired Canadians, and probably will snap back in the new year (even though their management is awful).

 

[cubsfan]

FMC

[Munger_Disciple]

CHTR, LBRDK

[gfp]

55 minutes ago, Munger_Disciple said:

CHTR, LBRDK

 

Are these even down for the year?  I guess these would be multi-year losses for people but I was thinking along the lines of companies near their 52 week lows this week for a quick bounce into early January.

[Munger_Disciple]

28 minutes ago, gfp said:

 

Are these even down for the year?  I guess these would be multi-year losses for people but I was thinking along the lines of companies near their 52 week lows this week for a quick bounce into early January.

 

No, but LBRDK is down almost 20% in the last few weeks and Charter is down is a lot too. Plus both are down > 50% from their all time highs in August 2021. They are good tax loss selling candidates for longer term holders who have gains elsewhere in their portfolio like the big tech names. 

Edited Monday at 09:57 PM by Munger_Disciple

[Spekulatius]

Pretty much everything is down except few tech and momentum stocks. Even NVDA has started to go down.

 

Edited Monday at 09:54 PM by Spekulatius

[DooDiligence]

 

[gfp]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

Pretty much everything is down except few tech and momentum stocks. Even NVDA has started to go down.

 

 

I noticed NVDA and CB both put in head and shoulders tops.  Not huge ones but pretty blatant.  Only Biglari and Tesla go up every day

[Masterofnone]

I think LEA fits the bill.

[Red Lion]

Apparently not CLPR.

[yesman182]

MPC it’s trading near a 14% owners yield with what they are projecting in buybacks and dividends. The stock has fallen much harder than oil prices. 
 

@gfp are you speculating that non indexers  are doing tax loss selling and that downward pressure will cause the indexes to buy these beaten down stocks in the coming weeks? 

[gfp]

1 hour ago, yesman182 said:

MPC it’s trading near a 14% owners yield with what they are projecting in buybacks and dividends. The stock has fallen much harder than oil prices. 
 

@gfp are you speculating that non indexers  are doing tax loss selling and that downward pressure will cause the indexes to buy these beaten down stocks in the coming weeks? 

 

No I'm not speculating on index-ers or index-es.  Just the usual annual dynamics where I end up with a lot of cash at the end of the year and these short term trades usually work out fairly well.  The selling is relentless and then all of a sudden it disappears.  Or at least that's the idea.  I'm not looking for keepers, just some shorter term things

[gfp]

TDW getting some insider activity today 

https://www.dataroma.com/m/ins/ins.php?t=d&am=0&sym=TDW&o=fd&d=d

[73 Reds]

13 hours ago, gfp said:

 

I noticed NVDA and CB both put in head and shoulders tops.  Not huge ones but pretty blatant.  Only Biglari and Tesla go up every day

I thought a head and shoulders top was a dandruff shampoo.  Do these companies have flakes?

[shhughes1116]

CMCT.  Combination of tax loss selling and people puking the common after a preferred conversion, which begets more tax loss selling.  

[SharperDingaan]

OBE, plus most of the CDN oil/gas patch. Combination of tax selling, fed/provincial/tariff threat response, and industry hate. The reality of course is that net of lower differentials, cost reduction via higher throughput, and a lower FX rate ... many of the despised are actually doing very well 

 

SD

Edited Tuesday at 03:34 PM by SharperDingaan