Best Idea(s) for 2025

[valueventures]

In addition to the 2025 Portfolio thread, figured I’d start a thread focused on sharing everyone’s top ideas. What stock or handful of stocks do you expect to outperform and why?

 

Looking forward to hearing responses, thanks!

[Longnose]

2 hours ago, valueventures said:

In addition to the 2025 Portfolio thread, figured I’d start a thread focused on sharing everyone’s top ideas. What stock or handful of stocks do you expect to outperform and why?

 

Looking forward to hearing responses, thanks!

BTC and MU 

[Paarslaars]

MSTR/BTC is going to be a big one.

Nintendo as well with the new switch.

 

 

And ow I would expect China to do good too.

Edited December 11 by Paarslaars

[Onefoothurdles]

ACFN and XRP (or a basket of utility coins) 

[Lazarus]

3 hours ago, Paarslaars said:

MSTR/BTC is going to be a big one.

Nintendo as well with the new switch.

 

 

And ow I would expect China to do good too.

No worries about a tariff war hitting China?

[Paarslaars]

Would expect most of that to be already calculated in.

[hardcorevalue]

Ha I love how this forum is slowly drifting into crypto bros...

 

Corner of Berkshire and Fairfax and MicroStrategy 

 

We need a great depression...

[73 Reds]

11 hours ago, valueventures said:

In addition to the 2025 Portfolio thread, figured I’d start a thread focused on sharing everyone’s top ideas. What stock or handful of stocks do you expect to outperform and why?

 

Looking forward to hearing responses, thanks!

Mostly the same investments I've owned for the past 25+ years:  BRK, HD, MSFT, AAPL, WMT, rental properties and business interests.  More recent Fairfax position as well.  If it's not broken why fix it?  Bought a few stocks this year with excess cash I intend to hold indefinitely but not yet materially significant.    

[thowed]

51 minutes ago, hardcorevalue said:

Corner of Berkshire and Fairfax and MicroStrategy 

Amazing!

 

Don't want to be a misery-guts, but am tempted by some Jan 2026 Index Puts for next year.  Feels like a lot of optimism about Trump is baked in, & silly Memecoin stuff going on.  It's been a good run since Oct 22.

 

Will hold on to what I've got which seems reasonable e.g. FFH, TVK, CSU - thinking of that old line about how great companies with great operators can take advantage of a downturn.  Community Banks - some of which seem cheap still and growing.  And a few other small things, like Laurent Perrier (family-controlled illiquid value) and FPT (outstanding tech company in Vietnam - I think one of the highest quality cos in SE Asia).

[Blake Hampton]

1 hour ago, hardcorevalue said:

Ha I love how this forum is slowly drifting into crypto bros...

 

Corner of Berkshire and Fairfax and MicroStrategy 

 

We need a great depression...

A great depression would almost certainly involve problems at banks, and that's a future that I really don't enjoy thinking about. I would argue though that there are lots of people that deserve to lose their shirts.

 

During the last few years, Buffett and Munger have stated repeatedly how they think gambling and speculation are currently dominating the markets. If we have any sort of crisis, anything involving interest rates, treasury markets, a flight to cash, or just fear in general, there are going to be a TON of individuals who aren't prepared. Suffice to say, there can be an immense amount of pain as people have to quickly come to terms with reality.

Some applicable quotes:

 

Quote

 

"Speculators may do no harm as bubbles on a steady stream of enterprise. But the position is serious when enterprise becomes the bubble on a whirlpool of speculation. When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done."

 

John Maynard Keynes

Chapter 12 of The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money

 

 

Quote

"When a person with money meets a person with experience, the one with experience ends up with the money and the one with money leaves with experience."

Warren Buffett
Berkshire Hathaway's 2016 Letter to Shareholders

 

I'm only 22 years old so I can't attest to having any experience, but I will say that the people that do, the ones that I study religiously, the ones that have acquired proven track records and have been around for 40 to 60+ years, are all sounding alarm bells. It's interesting to me that very few people have actually experienced an economic environment outside of extremely loose money.

 

At its base, money is essentially the medium for being able to live. It is the instrument in which we have created that buys food, shelter, and the necessary means for survival. It's all fun and games when it's abundant and seemingly infinite, but that notion can quickly change once people realize that it's not.

 

Markets are almost like an extension of human emotion, changes in them can cause both extreme joy and sorrow as people question their capability to survive. I guess the inherent problem is that the VAST majority (at least 90-95%) don't understand them.

Edited December 11 by Blake Hampton

[Blake Hampton]

I like oil btw

[Spooky]

21 minutes ago, thowed said:

Don't want to be a misery-guts, but am tempted by some Jan 2026 Index Puts for next year.

 

Not a bad idea as a hedge. US on track for two consecutive years of 20%+ equity returns, something which has only happened four times since 1871. Only
during the 1990’s bull market did the good fortune continue. Lots of optimism today. Lately I've been buying some JOE and putting some funds into my spouse's Wealth Simple account which has more international equity ETF exposure. Not going to touch my core equity positions CSU & BRK. Also have some S&P 500, S&P 600 and Fairfax.

 

[lnofeisone]

8 hours ago, Onefoothurdles said:

ACFN and XRP (or a basket of utility coins) 

I own some XRP for no good reason really. But what is a basket of utility coins?

[KPO]

As we sit here sub-$9’s, probably exacerbated by tax loss selling, I could see STNE doing okay. 

[MMM20]

If you want a contrarian value idea on a real business (not a crypto thing that looks like an all-timer of a scam), please let me humbly suggest US cannabis. Sentiment is the worst I've ever seen. The best operators like trading at all-time low valuations, like Green Thumb ~5x EBITDA (ex-AGFY stake) with a legit operator/ capital allocator CEO and cash flows inflecting upward, and Trulieve now at ~3-4x EBITDA in the wake of Florida failing to pass recreational weed last month (and with insiders buying some more recently). We're in the middle of tax loss season and these are essentially illiquid private stubs that still mostly trade on lower Canadian exchanges, and I think that explains most of why they've gotten crushed. We're on the cusp of rescheduling to Schedule III (hearings started this month) which if confirmed would tax the US operators as normal businesses rather than at 280E's ~70% effective tax rates. This may also open up the sector to more sources of capital and listing on US exchanges (depending who you ask), which should be a major catalyst because right now most institutional investors cannot own these things because they cannot custody the shares. If confirmed, the tax change would probably start next year (and possibly with a 3 year lookback). Also, Marc Andreessen recently highlighted the banking issues on the Joe Rogan podcast. Banking reform might actually get over the finish line near/mid-term, and yet most investors have completely given up and dismissed that possibility. I think investors are wrong to assume the Trump/RFK admin will be bad for cannabis businesses - see for example https://www.forbes.com/sites/willyakowicz/2024/11/29/why-donald-trump-will-be-good-for-weed/. And if that proves correct, the MSOS ETF could ~2x from these levels and still trade at a discount to the market. So while there are real risks and some poor operators with lots of leverage, I think there's a major disconnect between sentiment/valuations and reality. And sure, it doesn't hurt that these things have Microstrategy-ish meme potential - look at NASDAQ-listed AGFY running from ~$3 to ~80 over a few weeks. I think it adds up to a good trade for a ~50% bounce at least. I'm planning to buy over the next few weeks.

 

Edited December 11 by MMM20

[Spekulatius]

Health insurers look very juicy to me . I just added a bit more ELV today.

[dwy000]

3 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Health insurers look very juicy to me . I just added a bit more ELV today.

I just added some more CI

[Malmqky]

2 hours ago, MMM20 said:

If you want a contrarian value idea on a real business (not a crypto thing that looks like an all-timer of a scam), please let me humbly suggest US cannabis. Sentiment is the worst I've ever seen. The best operators like trading at all-time low valuations, like Green Thumb ~5x EBITDA (ex-AGFY stake) with a legit operator/ capital allocator CEO and cash flows inflecting upward, and Trulieve now at ~3-4x EBITDA in the wake of Florida failing to pass recreational weed last month (and with insiders buying some more recently). We're in the middle of tax loss season and these are essentially illiquid private stubs that still mostly trade on lower Canadian exchanges, and I think that explains most of why they've gotten crushed. We're on the cusp of rescheduling to Schedule III (hearings started this month) which if confirmed would tax the US operators as normal businesses rather than at 280E's ~70% effective tax rates. This may also open up the sector to more sources of capital and listing on US exchanges (depending who you ask), which should be a major catalyst because right now most institutional investors cannot own these things because they cannot custody the shares. If confirmed, the tax change would probably start next year (and possibly with a 3 year lookback). Also, Marc Andreessen recently highlighted the banking issues on the Joe Rogan podcast. Banking reform might actually get over the finish line near/mid-term, and yet most investors have completely given up and dismissed that possibility. I think investors are wrong to assume the Trump/RFK admin will be bad for cannabis businesses - see for example https://www.forbes.com/sites/willyakowicz/2024/11/29/why-donald-trump-will-be-good-for-weed/. And if that proves correct, the MSOS ETF could ~2x from these levels and still trade at a discount to the market. So while there are real risks and some poor operators with lots of leverage, I think there's a major disconnect between sentiment/valuations and reality. And sure, it doesn't hurt that these things have Microstrategy-ish meme potential - look at NASDAQ-listed AGFY running from ~$3 to ~80 over a few weeks. I think it adds up to a good trade for a ~50% bounce at least. I'm planning to buy over the next few weeks.

 

 

True contrarian idea.

 

I want to throw-up even considering investing in the sector.

 

Probably the best idea in the thread because I hate it

[Onefoothurdles]

13 hours ago, lnofeisone said:

I own some XRP for no good reason really. But what is a basket of utility coins?

such as XRP, XLM, XDC, Hbar, Chainlink, ADA, vechain, Casper, Flare to name a few - 

 

No expert on crypto. Its a speculative play. If my basket goes to zero, I wont lose sleep.

Gaining some exposure to this space because I've been intrigued by how the previous administration has generally carried on with 'regulating' crypto. Particularly, Ripple's lawsuit with the SEC which landed in Ripple's favor and didnt do any favors to SEC's reputation and credibility. The new administration and pro-crypto appointees and the ousting of SEC chairmen Gary Gensler. 

 

 

 

 

[villainx]

22 hours ago, MMM20 said:

I'm planning to buy over the next few weeks.

 

Green Thumb or Trulieve or something else?  I got burned with FL's decision with a small position in AYR, seeing where is best company for reschedule possibility.

[hardcorevalue]

22 hours ago, MMM20 said:

If you want a contrarian value idea on a real business (not a crypto thing that looks like an all-timer of a scam), please let me humbly suggest US cannabis. Sentiment is the worst I've ever seen. The best operators like trading at all-time low valuations, like Green Thumb ~5x EBITDA (ex-AGFY stake) with a legit operator/ capital allocator CEO and cash flows inflecting upward, and Trulieve now at ~3-4x EBITDA in the wake of Florida failing to pass recreational weed last month (and with insiders buying some more recently). We're in the middle of tax loss season and these are essentially illiquid private stubs that still mostly trade on lower Canadian exchanges, and I think that explains most of why they've gotten crushed. We're on the cusp of rescheduling to Schedule III (hearings started this month) which if confirmed would tax the US operators as normal businesses rather than at 280E's ~70% effective tax rates. This may also open up the sector to more sources of capital and listing on US exchanges (depending who you ask), which should be a major catalyst because right now most institutional investors cannot own these things because they cannot custody the shares. If confirmed, the tax change would probably start next year (and possibly with a 3 year lookback). Also, Marc Andreessen recently highlighted the banking issues on the Joe Rogan podcast. Banking reform might actually get over the finish line near/mid-term, and yet most investors have completely given up and dismissed that possibility. I think investors are wrong to assume the Trump/RFK admin will be bad for cannabis businesses - see for example https://www.forbes.com/sites/willyakowicz/2024/11/29/why-donald-trump-will-be-good-for-weed/. And if that proves correct, the MSOS ETF could ~2x from these levels and still trade at a discount to the market. So while there are real risks and some poor operators with lots of leverage, I think there's a major disconnect between sentiment/valuations and reality. And sure, it doesn't hurt that these things have Microstrategy-ish meme potential - look at NASDAQ-listed AGFY running from ~$3 to ~80 over a few weeks. I think it adds up to a good trade for a ~50% bounce at least. I'm planning to buy over the next few weeks.

 

 

“If that proves correct, the MSOS ETF could ~2x from these levels and still trade at a discount to the market."

 

How are you getting that??

 

Greenthumb is 35% of the ETF and has a 29x pe ratio.

Trulieve is 18% of the ETF and loses money

Curaleaf is 17% of the ETF and also loses money.

 

 

[MMM20]

On 12/12/2024 at 9:09 AM, hardcorevalue said:

 

“If that proves correct, the MSOS ETF could ~2x from these levels and still trade at a discount to the market."

 

How are you getting that??

 

Greenthumb is 35% of the ETF and has a 29x pe ratio.

Trulieve is 18% of the ETF and loses money

Curaleaf is 17% of the ETF and also loses money.

 

 

 

I tend to think about it on EV / (EBITDA - maintenance capex). Most of the capex has been for growth, and I think they've learned some hard lessons on that front over the past few years (though I'm not claiming every operator has found religion - some of their hands are forced by levered balance sheets and lack of access to reasonably priced capital). When I think about the bottom line, I am assuming 280E excess taxes go away in '25 or '26 at the latest. No one cares now, but that can change quickly. The obvious counterpoint is that any tax savings will be passed through to consumers. That is probably true to a certain point, but should be offset by volumes flowing to legal channels as prices get more competitive with the black market. Next, keep in mind that some of these companies are levered and interest rates are ~1.5-2x those of other businesses with similar credit profiles (aside from weed's federal status). You probably need to believe that changes with some federal reform like SAFER banking or better under the Trump admin to own the whole group longer term. But my point is to think about taxes and interest rates probabilistically along those lines and whether ~6x EBITDA-maint capex will translate to ~10-12x P/E shortly... or not. And I am mainly pointing out how oversold these are - and how much of that dynamic seems to come down to "Trump=bad", market plumbing issues, tax loss season, and multiple funds shutting down. I’m guessing we are a week away from full capitulation.

 

 

Edited Friday at 05:50 PM by MMM20

[MMM20]

On 12/12/2024 at 8:45 AM, villainx said:

 

Green Thumb or Trulieve or something else?  I got burned with FL's decision with a small position in AYR, seeing where is best company for reschedule possibility.

 

I am buying MSOS for a bounce. I am also planning to buy and hold more TOKE longer term b/c I really like the portfolio (see below) and the manager has fully waived fees until they hit $50mm in AUM. I have my own favorites (I've owned GLASF common and series B pref/warrants for ~2.5 years and averaged up a bit in the common at ~$7 this year) but I think the group as a whole is priced to high returns right now. I also own Couche-Tard and Philip Morris on their own merits as cheap/fair compounders with misunderstood tailwinds but partly b/c I think they'll also benefit from US cannabis reform at some point.

 

My bullishness is dampened by the fact that I know I can be contrarian to a fault - and that I'm not personally comfortable with a big position in this sector for more than a month or so given the clear and obvious left tail risks like a DOJ crackdown. I figured I'd share anyway. Now watch MSTR blow me (and old man Buffett) away.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited Friday at 05:56 PM by MMM20

[ICUMD]

Looking at Canadian markets, I believe the following are undervalued:

 

1. Rails: CNR > CP rail

 

2. Banks: BNS + TD

 

Currently building on a TD position to complement my BNS holdings.

 

Will add to CNR and CP positions.

 

 

[Red Lion]

On 12/11/2024 at 6:13 AM, Blake Hampton said:

It's interesting to me that very few people have actually experienced an economic environment outside of extremely loose money.

 

I agree with that, at least post 2007, although quite a number of people have experienced an economic environment pre 2007 GFC easy money era.

 

It seems to me that easy money is almost certain to continue, because it's the path of lease resistance to continue funding entitlement spending. I think the rising interest rates and QT of the last couple years are nothing but a hiccup in the long run QE/low interest rates trend. 

 

If you think the FED/treasury are going to allow us to go back to a super tight monetary policy system for a long period of time, I just don't see how the math works with some much debt compared to the size of the economy. IT's much easier to sustain low interest rate / QE / financial engineering to manipulate interest rates. 

 

Combined with the strongest economy in the world, I think the USA can probably keep chugging along quite a long time on this manipulated loose money high debt formula.