Vish_ram Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 It is amazing to watch the technology guys slowly challenge inefficient systems and vested interests. They blew up traditional media, disintermediated several industries, leveled the playing field for knowledge acquisition, search etc. And finally threaten the power of Fed/Banks to inflate at will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 5 minutes ago, james22 said: I've no problem swinging at a fat pitch. How did you size your Bitcoin position in 2012? You must be up many millions, yeah? Have you held since then? Added? What percent of your portfolio is Bitcoin now? Nothing wrong with a fat pitch! The Satoshi Nakamoto paper came out in late 2008/early 2009; if you had a lot of BTC in 2012 it was because you were mining (& therefore knew a lot about BTC). Quite a few others (who read the paper) also saw value in BTC, and bought in their BTC at ridiculous prices (vs today). A lot of folks on this thread. BTC isn't a buy/hold, it's a trading sardine. Same as most everyone else we swing-traded and did very well, often making more on the down leg than on the up leg; but unlike most others (we're survivors from o/g), we also kept taking $ off the table, and repatriating. Simply 'cause once you have your first millions, the rest aren't particularly useful - so why incur the risk to get them. Very anti-capitalist!. By market value, we hold a lot more BTC than we would prefer; and if the price rise keeps up - will have to sell it down again to further repatriate capital this year. Ideally, the same as a market maker; we get to slowly accumulate by selling 4 of every 5 BTC we buy, and are funded entirely with house money. Point here is that there are many roads to Rome; the fun is in the journey getting there, not the destination. SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted March 25 Author Share Posted March 25 Mining gold to purchase Bitcoin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jfan Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 Chainalysis has a plethora of information on its website. This is their latest report. I like this little snippet, unfortunately, I couldn't find a publicly traded company in this industry. The 2024 Crypto Crime Report.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jfan Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 (edited) Some interesting tidbits from "Tracers in the Dark" 1) 2021, as per Chainalysis - $14 billion of criminal transactions - 0.15% of crypto transactions are illicit - 400 employees - 600 customers (law enforcement, tax agencies, financial institutions, exchange companies) - Chainalysis' valuation $8.6 billion - Their competitor - Elliptic 2) During the takedown of Welcome to Video, a South Korean run child abuse darkweb site, it was discovered that a US homeland security border agent was an active participant on this site. He was abusing his girlfriend's daughter and posing as a moderator for the site to steal login/passwords of other users to obtain videos. He plead not guilty because he argued that his BTC transactions were surveilled without his consent and violated his privacy. Courts turned down that argument because all transactions on the blockchain are public and therefore not subject to privacy laws. 3) Ransomware gangs are trending to the use of Monero and Z-cash where "privacy" is much harder to break using more traditional blockchain cluster analysis techniques. This got me thinking about Jason Lowery's Softwar book and how BTC given its transparency and proof-of-work protocol, could help impose a real-world cost to ransomware gangs to access centralized database system. Edited March 28 by jfan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 SBF sentenced to 25 years oof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jfan Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 The Silk Road admin sentenced to 2 life sentences. The Alpha-bay admin committed suicide in a Thai detention center. The Welcome to Video admin got 18 months in a South Korean jail. The BTC-e admin sentenced to 25 years. Don't do illicit things on the blockchain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 3 minutes ago, jfan said: Don't do illicit things on the blockchain. Instead do them at a too big to fail bank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jfan Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 Just now, Castanza said: Instead do them at a too big to fail bank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sleepydragon Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 For the experts here, has anyone looked at the stock of Core Scientific , ticker CORZ it seems interesting because: 1. Just got out of bankruptcy and stock is trading at only $3ish 2. insiders have been buying 3. They own their infrastructure and claim to have lower cost mining bitcoins they also have some warrants which are also interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 10 hours ago, sleepydragon said: For the experts here, has anyone looked at the stock of Core Scientific , ticker CORZ it seems interesting because: 1. Just got out of bankruptcy and stock is trading at only $3ish 2. insiders have been buying 3. They own their infrastructure and claim to have lower cost mining bitcoins they also have some warrants which are also interesting. I am not an expert, sleepydragon, but I will ask you this question - does Core Scientific sell all of the Bitcoin they mine for cash or do they accumulate Bitcoin holdings on their balance sheet? My understanding is that for the most part the miners sell their Bitcoin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sleepydragon Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 40 minutes ago, gfp said: I am not an expert, sleepydragon, but I will ask you this question - does Core Scientific sell all of the Bitcoin they mine for cash or do they accumulate Bitcoin holdings on their balance sheet? My understanding is that for the most part the miners sell their Bitcoin. Hi gfp, unlike other miners, they sell all their bitcoins. I would think this is a good thing? If bitcoin stay at current price, they are certainly undervalued. If bitcoin goes down, their margin is currently at 20ish% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 1 hour ago, sleepydragon said: Hi gfp, unlike other miners, they sell all their bitcoins. I would think this is a good thing? If bitcoin stay at current price, they are certainly undervalued. If bitcoin goes down, their margin is currently at 20ish% Since the rewards for mining Bitcoin get halved in a couple weeks I would not count on the business staying the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 (edited) 4 hours ago, sleepydragon said: Hi gfp, unlike other miners, they sell all their bitcoins. I would think this is a good thing? If bitcoin stay at current price, they are certainly undervalued. If bitcoin goes down, their margin is currently at 20ish% This is the age old question of commodity producers - hedge or don't. By selling every BTC they produce, they hedge their risk. They lock in profits/cash today and will be less volatile than their peers. They also will benefit a fraction of the amount for any rise in price in BTC relative to their peers who may be holding a portion, or all, of the BTC they mine. If selling BTC today, they lock in prices of ~70k. If BTC continues to rise, as many of us expect, they could be selling the same BTC for 100k in a few months at significantly higher margins and could have simply financed that additional gain at a cost of ~5-10% if issuing debt/equity to pay the daily expenses while they wait. 2 hours ago, gfp said: Since the rewards for mining Bitcoin get halved in a couple weeks I would not count on the business staying the same. +1 There will be a period of consolidation in the mining business immediately after halving when revenues for miners get cut by 50% waiting for the price of BTC to double to make up for it. Edited March 31 by TwoCitiesCapital Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 15 hours ago, sleepydragon said: For the experts here, has anyone looked at the stock of Core Scientific , ticker CORZ it seems interesting because: 1. Just got out of bankruptcy and stock is trading at only $3ish 2. insiders have been buying 3. They own their infrastructure and claim to have lower cost mining bitcoins they also have some warrants which are also interesting. An investor could simply take their money, and buy either a BTC-ETF, or CORZ. It's real hard to see why CORZ would be the better choice, and harder still to forecast if they will still be here a year out. SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 Disclosure: We put a swing trade on BTC today, and are back down to a neutral position. We still believe, but need to reduce our market exposure until after the halving. SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paarslaars Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 Why? If It may ask. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 (edited) 16 hours ago, Paarslaars said: Why? If It may ask. We expect a mining sell-off the closer we get to halving date, and lower prices through the summer. Anticipate buying back cheaper. We've also done very well via the BTC-ETF's; but we're trading stupid quantities of units, and our portfolio distortion is extreme. Needs to end. It also doesn't hurt that MW has also given us another opportunity by which to temporarily park some change in FFH A month out, we could well be up another 4% SD Edited April 9 by SharperDingaan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paarslaars Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 Mmm not so sure about what BTC will do over the next couple of months, not selling but might add if there is a substantial dip (< 50k). Hope you're right about FFH though the market seems to largely ignore the new MW comments, I don't think 1500 CAD is that cheap, if it goes back to 1250$ I'll load up too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave86ch Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james22 Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 (edited) Am torn between 1) BTC will drop immediately after halving as desperate miners sell and 2) We're in a new paradigm with ETF access opening tens of billions of dollars in regular, consistent, slow-trickle secular demand providing a floor Guess I'll just keep DCA'ing and rolling short OTM puts on BITO for fat premiums. Edited April 10 by TwoCitiesCapital Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Longnose Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 48 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said: Am torn between 1) BTC will drop immediately after halving as desperate miners sell and 2) We're in a new paradigm with ETF access opening tens of billions of dollars in regular, consistent, slow-trickle secular demand providing a floor Guess I'll just keep DCA'ing and rolling short OTM puts on BITO for fat premiums. Literally had this conversation with a friend on Monday. I'm totally split on will we keep rolling or will there be a drop at the halving due to miner sell off. Either way I'm still DCAing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fly Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/04/10/hong-kongs-incoming-spot-bitcoin-etfs-could-be-big-deal-heres-what-analysts-say/ Chinese love BTC, will they love the ETF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave86ch Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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