Is Europe becoming uninvestable?

[Spekulatius]

Europe may not be investable, but at least it can automate ports without politics interfering:

 http://www.hafen-hamburg.de/de/presse/news/neue-containerbruecken-fuer-den-container-terminal-burchardkai/

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://www.ft.com/content/f0b621a1-54f2-49fc-acc1-a660e9131740

 

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A lack of wind in Germany and the North Sea will push electricity prices in southern Norway to NKr13.16 ($1.18) per kilowatt hour on Thursday afternoon, their highest level since 2009 and almost 20 times their level just last week. “It’s an absolutely shit situation,” said Norway’s energy minister Terje Aasland.

 

If only if environmentalist lobby that has taken control of Germany could have foreseen the obvious consequences of eliminating base-load nuclear power. Now Europe will have to learn the hard way.

 

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The ruling centre-left Labour party now says it wants to campaign in next year’s parliamentary election, set for September, to turn off electricity interconnectors to Denmark when they come up for renewal in 2026. Its junior coalition partner, the Centre party, has long demanded an end to the Danish connection and also wants to renegotiate existing interconnectors with the UK and Germany.

 

Unlike the EU, Norway has been very smart in its development of energy sources...

 

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The issue is also causing deep alarm among EU countries keen to use Norway’s abundant hydroelectric power to help balance energy prices on the continent.

 

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Norway is also western Europe’s largest petroleum producer and has replaced Russia for many EU countries as their biggest supplier of gas.

 

Edited Saturday at 06:17 PM by Dalal.Holdings

[Spekulatius]

$JOST a stock I like from uninvestible Europe. They are the #1 for 5th wheels. (A real thing)  and other truck accessories .

$JOST. Roughly €6 in earnings (a bit less this year) and a goal to have €10 Euro in earnings for 2030. ~20% ROE due to asset light business model.  Sounds pretty cheap to me for €43 Euro stock.

 

https://www.jost-world.com/fileadmin/documents/pdfs/investor-relations/IR-presentations/2024/20241119_JOST_Werke_Investors_presentation_2024_-_November_2024_update_final.pdf

[Tenerife]

9 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

$JOST a stock I like from uninvestible Europe. They are the #1 for 5th wheels. (A real thing)  and other truck accessories .

$JOST. Roughly €6 in earnings (a bit less this year) and a goal to have €10 Euro in earnings for 2030. ~20% ROE due to asset light business model.  Sounds pretty cheap to me for €43 Euro stock.

 

https://www.jost-world.com/fileadmin/documents/pdfs/investor-relations/IR-presentations/2024/20241119_JOST_Werke_Investors_presentation_2024_-_November_2024_update_final.pdf

Their Hyva acquisition should give a nice fillip and can reach the €10 Euro in earnings in couple of years. Also their Asia margin (local production with cheap labour/material) is double that of rest of the world , should grow nicely with Hyva.

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://www.ft.com/content/39d8e496-ddd2-486d-9306-da699687ee9a

 

Quote

“You’re leaving the country in one of its biggest economic crises in postwar history,” said Friedrich Merz, the CDU party chief leading in the polls, in comments targeting Scholz ahead of Monday’s vote. “And you’re standing here and saying . . . let’s increase debt at the expense of the younger generation.”

 

Merz sounds like a fiscal hawk pro-austerity guy (not Keynesian). The German constitution also limits annual structural deficits to 0.35%. Not reassuring for Deutschland.

 

Why is Germany so stingy with fiscal spending?

[Dalal.Holdings]

 

Who wants to take bets on whether this will ever come close to being a viable alternative to Starlink vs just a waste of $11B?

 

Europe is focused on the wrong priorities

[economonoc]

6 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

Merz sounds like a fiscal hawk pro-austerity guy (not Keynesian). The German constitution also limits annual structural deficits to 0.35%. Not reassuring for Deutschland.

 

Why is Germany so stingy with fiscal spending?

I would guess because devastating hyperinflation in Germany led to the rise of Hitler.

Edited yesterday at 07:22 AM by economonoc

[Milu]

6 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

 

Who wants to take bets on whether this will ever come close to being a viable alternative to Starlink vs just a waste of $11B?

 

Europe is focused on the wrong priorities

Northvolt round 2

[Dalal.Holdings]

 

Bahahahahaha…

 

God help Europe if this is how its leaders think…

 

[dwy000]

The timeline is cherry picked but I wouldn't have guessed this to be the case

https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/1868070212190216492

Edited 18 hours ago by dwy000

[TwoCitiesCapital]

37 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

The timeline is cherry picked but I wouldn't have guessed this to be the case

https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/1868070212190216492

 

I've seen similar metrics - but was like 1-2 years ago and didn't exclude NVDA but rather than Mag-7 (or was it FAANGM at the time?). 

 

Basically, similar to those handful of stocks driving the entire index while the equal weight index has been shit - it's a relatively similar story compared to int'l stocks. 

 

Doesn't mean much IMO. If you missed the mag-7, you missed the returns. It really doesn't matter what you bought instead - categorically everything else has been mediocre-ish - especially post-2021. I still like int'l because it's hated, it's cheap, and the currency may eventually be a tailwind. But it hasn't been working for years - but not because intl was bad. Because they weren't the nag-7 just like the rest of S&P 500 wasn't. 

 

Edited 17 hours ago by TwoCitiesCapital

[Spekulatius]

2 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

I've seen similar metrics - but was like 1-2 years ago and didn't exclude NVDA but rather than Mag-7 (or was it FAANGM at the time?). 

 

Basically, similar to those handful of stocks driving the entire index while the equal weight index has been shit - it's a relatively similar story compared to int'l stocks. 

 

Doesn't mean much IMO. If you missed the mag-7, you missed the returns. It really doesn't matter what you bought instead - categorically everything else has been mediocre-ish - especially post-2021. I still like int'l because it's hated, it's cheap, and the currency may eventually be a tailwind. But it hasn't been working for years - but not because intl was bad. Because they weren't the nag-7 just like the rest of S&P 500 wasn't. 

 

Yep, and these rocks are a highly correlated  with a lot of interdependency (AI trade etc), When you buy SPY you don’t really buy a highly  diversified index , you really make a tech trades that is based on just a few themes. The same was true in 2000.

[John Hjorth]

8 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Yep, and these rocks are a highly correlated  with a lot of interdependency (AI trade etc), When you buy SPY you don’t really buy a highly  diversified index , you really make a tech trades that is based on just a few themes. The same was true in 2000.

 

Certainly food for thoughts, - nowadays.

 

Please, take care.

[Spooky]

Interesting article by Martin Wolf in the FT about Europe: https://on.ft.com/4gDLw3D

 

Shows that the expansion of the EU to poorer countries has lead to increasing GDP per capita in those countries. Contrasts it with Mexico and Nafta where GDP per capita has gone backwards despite the opportunities supposedly afforded by its free trade agreements.

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/17/opinion/germany-scholz-government-election.html