Beginning of the End of Car Ownership as We Know It

[Parsad]

GM and Google have been given approval to run their driver-less ride-sharing/taxi services in San Francisco.  I can see the day when most people won't own cars.  Just fleets of driver-less ride-sharing/taxis running 24/7 picking you up wherever you are and dropping you off wherever you want to go.  No gas, no insurance, no repairs, no driver's license and probably fairly economical rates.  Cheers!

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/2-robotaxi-services-seeking-bypass-000718403.html

[cwericb]

This is a projection made by people living in large urban centres who seem to have little understanding of the realities of life in the real world where millions live in rural areas.

 

Areas serviced by narrow, unmarked two lane highways and dirt roads are going to prove a challenge for automated vehicles. Then there are also those of us who regularly commute in winter conditions where whiteouts and snow covered roads are frequent and winter driving is an art not understood by many.

 

My present vehicle is quite impressive when I allow it to drive itself, but it is still a long way from being able to navigate anything but clearly marked highways - and even then it can easily get confused.

[james22]

This is a projection made by scolds living in large urban centers who seem to have little understanding of driving for pleasure.

 

One in Three Americans Enjoy Driving a Great Deal (2018)

 

https://news.gallup.com/poll/236813/adults-drive-frequently-fewer-enjoy-lot.aspx#:~:text=Although most Americans are spending,and 8% not at all.

 

https://www.automoblog.net/people-still-love-driving/

[jks327]

Haven't owned a car for two years, and I live on a farm about 7 miles from the nearest town.

[Spekulatius]

1 minute ago, jks327 said:

Haven't owned a car for two years, and I live on a farm about 7 miles from the nearest town.

So you use a tractor instead?

[cwericb]

14 minutes ago, james22 said:

This is a projection made by scolds living in large urban centers who seem to have little understanding of driving for pleasure.

 

One in Three Americans Enjoy Driving a Great Deal (2018)

 

https://news.gallup.com/poll/236813/adults-drive-frequently-fewer-enjoy-lot.aspx#:~:text=Although most Americans are spending,and 8% not at all.

 

https://www.automoblog.net/people-still-love-driving/

 

Agree 100% Good driving is an art to be enjoyed by many.

[cwericb]

17 minutes ago, jks327 said:

Haven't owned a car for two years, and I live on a farm about 7 miles from the nearest town.

 

That's too bad. But if you are waiting for an autonomous car to pick you up to get the groceries I would suggest you hook Bessie up to the wagon.

[Xerxes]

If you live in the suburbs living without car is nearly impossible, specially with companies forcing folks back to office 

[rkbabang]

1 hour ago, cwericb said:

This is a projection made by people living in large urban centres who seem to have little understanding of the realities of life in the real world where millions live in rural areas.

 

Areas serviced by narrow, unmarked two lane highways and dirt roads are going to prove a challenge for automated vehicles. Then there are also those of us who regularly commute in winter conditions where whiteouts and snow covered roads are frequent and winter driving is an art not understood by many.

 

My present vehicle is quite impressive when I allow it to drive itself, but it is still a long way from being able to navigate anything but clearly marked highways - and even then it can easily get confused.

 

Yes, obviously carless living will happen in the mega-cities (starting with the ones with nice weather and no snow to deal with) way before it happens in the smaller cities, not to mention suburban and rural areas.   There are already a large number of carless people in major cities, so this is really just AI replacing Uber or taxis service.  AI has a long way to go before it can drive in a whiteout snow storm on a twisty mountain road.   

[cwericb]

2 hours ago, rkbabang said:

AI has a long way to go before it can drive in a whiteout snow storm on a twisty mountain road. 

 

BINGO! People in the major centres that think self driving cars are just around the corner are WAY off the mark. It is like the situation with electric vehicles. I find it strange that people are pushing for prompt electrification of all vehicles at a time when power grids in many areas are already stretched to, or beyond capacity.

 

Kinda like putting the cart before the horse.

[mjm]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/man-forced-ditch-115k-ford-234104336.html     

[cubsfan]

6 hours ago, cwericb said:

This is a projection made by people living in large urban centres who seem to have little understanding of the realities of life in the real world where millions live in rural areas.

 

 

Couldn't agree more. 10 years ago, on this very board I got this lengthy lecture from one of the members how in 5 years, autonomous driving would be fairly mainstream. It got very heated.

I brought up some of these things, also insurance issues, which I felt the kinks needed to be worked out, etc.

 

The guy is long gone - but here we are 10 years later - and still treading water..

[Parsad]

6 hours ago, jks327 said:

Haven't owned a car for two years, and I live on a farm about 7 miles from the nearest town.

 

+1!  So much for the scolds of urban dwellers who don't understand driving for pleasure or on dirt roads...since they make up about 25% of drivers.  Cheers!

[Parsad]

5 hours ago, Xerxes said:

If you live in the suburbs living without car is nearly impossible, specially with companies forcing folks back to office 

 

More and more people will work from home or satellite cities within 15 minutes of where they live.  Cheers!

[Saluki]

I haven't looked at the numbers in a while, but I would bet that based on miles driven a self-driving car is safer than most passenger driven cars.

 

For highway driving, or roads without a lot of cars (rural, but not dirt) it's a much easier lift than trying to get it to work in San Franscisco (pedestrians, hills, obstacles, buses, more cars).  It's interesting how different companies approached the problem.  Waymo started in Phoenix (sunny all the time, few pedestrians, flat terrain, long distances), and another intentionally chose Pittsburgh because the amount of iron bridges made it harder to communicate with the vehicle.  And snow, potholes and people added to the difficulty. The theory was that if we can get it to work here, it will work anywhere. 

 

Self-driving cars could reduce the cost of ownership. If your car is in the driveway, why not let it pick up fares and pay for itself?  I don't see why paying for a driverless car, which surely would cost less than a car with a driver, for the occasional trip wouldn't work for rural people.  Especially if the car comes to your door. Most construction companies don't have their own cranes or other specialty equipment because it's cheaper to rent it you don't use it a lot.  It's not going to happen overnight because no one is working on retrofitting existing cars to be driverless.  For a time riderless cars will share the roads with drunk drivers, distracted teens and Maryland drivers, just like cars shared the road with horses for a while.  Eventually the lower cost of maintaining a car vs a horse made it hard to justify the joy of riding in the saddle.  I'm sure your grandkids will chuckle one day when you tell them about how you had to learn to work a clutch.  

[Parsad]

37 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

Couldn't agree more. 10 years ago, on this very board I got this lengthy lecture from one of the members how in 5 years, autonomous driving would be fairly mainstream. It got very heated.

I brought up some of these things, also insurance issues, which I felt the kinks needed to be worked out, etc.

 

The guy is long gone - but here we are 10 years later - and still treading water..

 

I would imagine that in major cities, the number of car owners will drop dramatically over the next 20-30 years on a per capita basis.  I also can see taxi medallions dropping further in value or being non-existent.  

 

Regarding someone posting about an autonomous vehicle being able to drive in whiteouts...that will happen and those vehicles will be able to handle whiteouts better than the average driver as they will be able to adjust faster to slippage or loss of traction.  Have they even seen people and how they drive in just a few inches of snow...forget a whiteout?!

 

And driving for pleasure...sure that will exist to a certain degree...but you can see changes in driving habits between generations.  Younger generations aren't driving as much for pleasure, but for utility.  If they could get a car arriving at their door, loading up and then heading over wherever they want with low cost, efficient, easy access, they will.  It's why so many people use cabs in NY, etc.  And it will only get more efficient and cheaper with autonomous vehicles.

 

Cheers!

[Parsad]

11 minutes ago, Saluki said:

I haven't looked at the numbers in a while, but I would bet that based on miles driven a self-driving car is safer than most passenger driven cars.

 

For highway driving, or roads without a lot of cars (rural, but not dirt) it's a much easier lift than trying to get it to work in San Franscisco (pedestrians, hills, obstacles, buses, more cars).  It's interesting how different companies approached the problem.  Waymo started in Phoenix (sunny all the time, few pedestrians, flat terrain, long distances), and another intentionally chose Pittsburgh because the amount of iron bridges made it harder to communicate with the vehicle.  And snow, potholes and people added to the difficulty. The theory was that if we can get it to work here, it will work anywhere. 

 

Self-driving cars could reduce the cost of ownership. If your car is in the driveway, why not let it pick up fares and pay for itself?  I don't see why paying for a driverless car, which surely would cost less than a car with a driver, for the occasional trip wouldn't work for rural people.  Especially if the car comes to your door. Most construction companies don't have their own cranes or other specialty equipment because it's cheaper to rent it you don't use it a lot.  It's not going to happen overnight because no one is working on retrofitting existing cars to be driverless.  For a time riderless cars will share the roads with drunk drivers, distracted teens and Maryland drivers, just like cars shared the road with horses for a while.  Eventually the lower cost of maintaining a car vs a horse made it hard to justify the joy of riding in the saddle.  I'm sure your grandkids will chuckle one day when you tell them about how you had to learn to work a clutch.  

 

+1!  LOL!  They already do regarding a stick shift and clutch.  Hell my niece and nephew laugh when I say "hang up the phone" or "dial the number!"  They have no clue what I mean by "tape" the show either...I have to say "record" the show.  They also get a kick out of the desktop computer mouse, since everything they use (iPhone; iPad) is all touch.  Cheers!

[rkbabang]

3 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

I would imagine that in major cities, the number of car owners will drop dramatically over the next 20-30 years on a per capita basis.  I also can see taxi medallions dropping further in value or being non-existent.  

 

Regarding someone posting about an autonomous vehicle being able to drive in whiteouts...that will happen and those vehicles will be able to handle whiteouts better than the average driver as they will be able to adjust faster to slippage or loss of traction.  Have they even seen people and how they drive in just a few inches of snow...forget a whiteout?!

 

And driving for pleasure...sure that will exist to a certain degree...but you can see changes in driving habits between generations.  Younger generations aren't driving as much for pleasure, but for utility.  If they could get a car arriving at their door, loading up and then heading over wherever they want with low cost, efficient, easy access, they will.  It's why so many people use cabs in NY, etc.  And it will only get more efficient and cheaper with autonomous vehicles.

 

Cheers!

 

 

Yes, like I said.   Major cities first the rest later as the tech improves.  There will always be people who own their own cars, just as there are still people who own their own horses.   I doubt I'll ever give up owning my own vehicle.  But the next generation that comes after driverless cars have been perfected will never even learn to drive.   The only question is how long until this happens?     I'm thinking driverless cars being the majority on the road in big cities in 15 years, in rural areas in 30.   Those are just wild guesses based on nothing though.

 

[Spekulatius]

The issue with any ride service that they are likely booked out during the busiest hours (like commute hours) and then you are going to be waiting for a car a long time potentially. The fact that they are not fully utilized across the whole day doesn't matter if you have to waste 30 min to obtain car when you and everyone else needs it.

 

 

[Longnose]

1 hour ago, Parsad said:

 

+1!  So much for the scolds of urban dwellers who don't understand driving for pleasure or on dirt roads...since they make up about 25% of drivers.  Cheers!

 

While Im all for autonomous cars. I have a family ranch and love driving the 45 mins of dirt roads into the mountains. No autonomous car will take me where I want to go off road.

[CorpRaider]

I'ma intellectually fade this outcome.  I do think it will be big time in dense urban environments and maybe up the ridership of public transport, but in most of America...nah.  I don't even really want my kids riding in my car.  Think private rail cars.  Will be nice to let it drive you home drunk or drive grandma around.  Googl, comes with the best call option on the transportation OS (yet another duopoly).

Edited August 11, 2023 by CorpRaider

[Castanza]

13 hours ago, cwericb said:

This is a projection made by people living in large urban centres who seem to have little understanding of the realities of life in the real world where millions live in rural areas.

 

Areas serviced by narrow, unmarked two lane highways and dirt roads are going to prove a challenge for automated vehicles. Then there are also those of us who regularly commute in winter conditions where whiteouts and snow covered roads are frequent and winter driving is an art not understood by many.

 

My present vehicle is quite impressive when I allow it to drive itself, but it is still a long way from being able to navigate anything but clearly marked highways - and even then it can easily get confused.

Not only that but it completely ignores simple things like:

 

- Random emergency

- Popping over to a friends/parents

- Kids sporting events/practice

- Random schedule changes

- Forgot the avocado on taco Tuesday

- Joy ride on a lazy afternoon evening

- Helping a buddy move something 

 

The amount of random “I need a vehicle now” moments there are in life makes the planning and waiting aspect of this ride hailing dubious at best. 
 

Also zero chance I want to send my car out while I’m not using it to taxi random people around. People have no respect for others things. Have enough friend who did Uber that have enough stories of people kissing, throwing trash, smoking, getting to third base etc. all in their car. That only goes up with a driverless vehicle imo. No way I want that stuff in my “family car”. 

 

If there ever is a world where we don’t own vehicles (or other things as World Economic Forum/UN has said) I hope I and my children’s children are long dead by that time. 
 

People who come up with predictions like this seem to think the world is binary like a SIMS game. Ignores the nuance that makes life beautiful and human imo. 

Edited August 12, 2023 by Castanza

[Gregmal]

Think you guys are missing something else super obvious. Especially from a credit analysis perspective. That’s the number of people who are locked into their car ownership, regardless of what cars they buy going forward, simply by the negative equity aspect. 
 

Whether it’s leasing or financing, so many people would be prohibited from just walking simply because of the degree to which they are more or less forced to roll into new leases or financing due to having to cut checks to be free of it. 

[Parsad]

11 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

The issue with any ride service that they are likely booked out during the busiest hours (like commute hours) and then you are going to be waiting for a car a long time potentially. The fact that they are not fully utilized across the whole day doesn't matter if you have to waste 30 min to obtain car when you and everyone else needs it.

 

 

 

You won't be waiting 30 minutes for a car in the future.  It will be completely autonomous and everything mapped algorithmically based on demand.  More cars will be added as needed...similar to how driverless subway systems operate.  Busy times, more trains added and more frequent train stops. 

 

If you can get more cars off the road owned by individuals, as 70% of vehicles driven during rush hours in urban centers are single-person occupied, you actually increase the space for vehicles to travel, park and greater efficiencies in traffic times. 

 

You also wouldn't have huge suburban populations with 2-3-4 cars.  Or areas in cities with significant authorized/unauthorized suites eating up tons of street parking.  Imagine if traffic flowed seamlessly, your travel times were shorter than they are today, you have no ownership expense and accidents occur far less frequently!  That's where we are headed!

 

Cheers!  

[Parsad]

11 hours ago, Longnose said:

 

While Im all for autonomous cars. I have a family ranch and love driving the 45 mins of dirt roads into the mountains. No autonomous car will take me where I want to go off road.

 

No, that won't change for pleasure owners.  But you might drive your car less frequently and take the driverless car for other chores.  The greatest impact will be in urban centers and suburbs of large urban centers.  You'll also get rid of a lot of vehicles on freeways, which will make driving and times more efficient.

 

Wait till you start to see driverless 18 wheelers!  Moving goods 24/7!  Autonomous ports/cranes.  Autonomous trains.  Autonomous shipping (already there).  And lastly, autonomous aircraft flying in and out of major airports with seamless precision.  Cheers!