Share your Portfolio 2023!

[Luke]

I still think Pabrai hit it on the nail, Amazons Valuation is not egregious, they have a spawning engine of which we dont know what it will create and have in 10 years, we dont know the return on invested capital and their statements dont reveal exactly whats going on, the parts they have right now are valuable, have competitive advantages, they will be here probably in 10 years and i do think amazon by then will be a more valuable, better, stronger business. Will it 3x in 10 years? Will it only 2x? Its an amazing business and a buy and hold for me

[crs223]

9 hours ago, Luca said:

…which we dont know what it will create … we dont know the return on invested capital … statements dont reveal exactly whats going on …

 

Sorry but this just made me smile… 

[Luke]

2 hours ago, crs223 said:

 

Sorry but this just made me smile… 

Wdym?

[crs223]

2 hours ago, Luca said:

Wdym?

 

I thought you were describing a fraud — but then I realized you were bullish.

 

I read it as “I have no idea what they do, and they don’t tell us anything in their financials. But they are going to the moon!”.

[Luke]

10 minutes ago, crs223 said:

 

I thought you were describing a fraud — but then I realized you were bullish.

 

I read it as “I have no idea what they do, and they don’t tell us anything in their financials. But they are going to the moon!”.

Well, you read what you want to read. I never said i have no idea what they do, the current businesses are quite clear and understandable. The spawning engine on the other hand is kicking but we dont know what it will pop out, past performance showed that they have a good hand for it. Amazons financials are difficult to understand, they dont tell us how many millions were put in projects that didnt end up giving returns and how many millions lead to significant returns. AWS is an example of that spawning engine working very well. I also never said they are going to the ,,moon,, (again thats what you probably want to read). Amazon could very well be a 2x-3x over a decade. Its an incredible business...thats not the moon. Perhaps you have any other input than unnecessary noise. Your reply made me smile.

[copelandlewis]

BOC

BRKB

CNSWF

FRFHF

GOOGL

LH

MKL

PFE

[dealraker]

3 hours ago, Luca said:

Well, you read what you want to read. I never said i have no idea what they do, the current businesses are quite clear and understandable. The spawning engine on the other hand is kicking but we dont know what it will pop out, past performance showed that they have a good hand for it. Amazons financials are difficult to understand, they dont tell us how many millions were put in projects that didnt end up giving returns and how many millions lead to significant returns. AWS is an example of that spawning engine working very well. I also never said they are going to the ,,moon,, (again thats what you probably want to read). Amazon could very well be a 2x-3x over a decade. Its an incredible business...thats not the moon. Perhaps you have any other input than unnecessary noise. Your reply made me smile.

The unanimous view on Amazon and AWS as evidenced by the current stock price.  We will see!  

[Whensthepaintdry?]

1 hour ago, copelandlewis said:

BOC

BRKB

CNSWF

FRFHF

GOOGL

LH

MKL

PFE

Happy to see another BOC holder. Excited to see how this one plays out. 

[crs223]

3 hours ago, Luca said:

Well, you read what you want to read. I never said i have no idea what they do, the current businesses are quite clear and understandable. The spawning engine on the other hand is kicking but we dont know what it will pop out, past performance showed that they have a good hand for it. Amazons financials are difficult to understand, they dont tell us how many millions were put in projects that didnt end up giving returns and how many millions lead to significant returns. AWS is an example of that spawning engine working very well. I also never said they are going to the ,,moon,, (again thats what you probably want to read). Amazon could very well be a 2x-3x over a decade. Its an incredible business...thats not the moon. Perhaps you have any other input than unnecessary noise. Your reply made me smile.

 

Im not saying anything about amazon or your investing prowess.  Furthermore, I don’t have anything useful whatsoever to add on the subject.

 

I just thought it was amusing the way the sentences were structured.  That’s all I meant.

[Luke]

11 minutes ago, crs223 said:

 

Im not saying anything about amazon or your investing prowess.  Furthermore, I don’t have anything useful whatsoever to add on the subject.

 

I just thought it was amusing the way the sentences were structured.  That’s all I meant.

Nowhere did i say ,,to the moon,, or that i have no idea what they are doing...the reality is that amazon developed like it is due to their spawning and investing engine. Nick Sleep identified that early and its a different business now than it was 10 years ago. I wouldnt be surprised if we see a lot of new things and changes in perspective in amazon in another 10 years.

[crs223]

2 hours ago, Luca said:

Nowhere did i say ,,to the moon,, or that i have no idea what they are doing...the reality is that amazon developed like it is due to their spawning and investing engine. Nick Sleep identified that early and its a different business now than it was 10 years ago. I wouldnt be surprised if we see a lot of new things and changes in perspective in amazon in another 10 years.

 

You did not say “to the moon”.  You said you weren’t sure if it would double or triple.

 

You didn’t say “don’t know what they are doing”, you said that “we don’t know what they will create”.

 

I’m very sorry and I apologize.  I am completely in the wrong and i will be more careful not to make such flippant comments in the future.

Edited April 17, 2023 by crs223

[DooDiligence]

The recent thread on concentration vs long term holding was very provocative and led me to some rebalancing.

Thanks to @Viking for starting it and to all the contributors for fleshing it out.

 

Presenting, the No Position Bigger than Berkshire Portfolio

 

Here it is in all it's glory

Warts exposed to air

Views expressed are a priori

Warning, there will be hair

 

(Expected Holding Periods => 2-5 years => 5-10 years => 10 years or more)

percentages based on present market values

 

 

2-5 year bucket:

 

DPZ 5.9% (still love the business but would trim on strength and keep a tracker)

(edit : increased to 7.8% may 1st)

 

SFTBY 2.2% (will Masa get back to his roots & will ARM & BABA be helpful? I had no business buying this and had already trimmed and reallocated 50%)

 

STLJF 1.8% (sells wood products to both infrastructure and consumer markets. shows pricing power. results aren't getting recognized)

 

CMCSA 1.3% (kind of pairs with Disney. a gift from my Mom)

CLB 1.2% (an unsightly weed that will eventually be removed)

 

 

5-10 year bucket:

 

Nintendo 6.9% (trusted gaming content for all ages. don't see how Donkey Kong could ever get accused of grooming kids. why isn't this a meme stonk?) (adding and hope to trim opportunistically while keeping a nice sized position that may get moved to the 10 year + lockbox).

 

ADSK 3.6% (sticky virtual infrastructure play. low capex. duopoly with SolidWorks [Dassault] in mechanical and electrical design for builders big and small) (transition from perpetual licensing to SaaS is still rippling through revenues. opportunity to onboard pirated users. hodling.

 

INTC 3.2% (all semis and semicaps have seen their futures in jeopardy at some point) (falling knives hurt) (hodling)

 

BBH 3.2% (spreading out the risk in biotech & pharma)

 

SMH (VanEck Semis) 3% (I like the composition and pair it with Intel) (already trimmed and left a biggish tracker that will get re-trimmed and tiny-tracked if it works out)

 

CITI 1.7% (hopeful that the assets are at least half as solid as the liabilities) (drop it if it gets hot)

 

TYL 1.8% (more sticky virtual infrastructure with low capex requirements. NIC digestion ongoing. would like to see cash flow smooth out)

 

Altria 1.1% (last gasp, or bull in a vape shop crashes into a fortune?) (sell out opportunistically and buy a new pair of pants with the proceeds)

 

 

10 year + lockbox:

 

BRK 15% (there can be only one)

NVO 14% (in a more prosperous world, people are going to eat)

 

EW 11.9% (everbody's got a heart. I sold too many shares early on. CEO Mussalem is stepping down after leading the company since the Baxter spin) ($468m patent infringement judgement for Abbott (mitral / tricuspid), against EW last year. Still dominating TAVR with Medtronic. Abbott got FDA approval for their 1st TAVR device Navitor.)

 

DIS 7.9% (entertain us)

GOOGL 5.6% (there's more money to be made)

 

ABBV 4.6% (lot's of people are uncomfortable in their skin. the commercials are relentless + my Mom left this to me and her Mom left it to her. i'll keep it)

 

ABT 2.4% (competes with Edwards on left ventricular assist devices and now TAVR. won a recent judgement against EW over mitral : they make other essential stuff and occasionally get chided for it : another Grandma to Mom to me stonk. think i'll keep it)

 

HTLZF 1.8% [slow roll up? babies are the best people and grow up to be gamers. pairs well with Nintendo]

 

 

 

 

and about 2% investible cash

 

[Anything that get's bigger than BRK gets a trim]

 

I recently, reluctantly, trimmed NVO and am trying to put 1/3 of the proceeds into Nintendo.

 

I am the Bullgod
I am free
and I feed on all that is forsaken
I'm gonna get you
I see through you
I'm gonna get you

 

More like a Bullfraud who got lucky with a few concentrated purchases [BRK/EW/NVO]

Edited May 2, 2023 by DooDiligence

[Gregmal]

2 hours ago, dealraker said:

The unanimous view on Amazon and AWS as evidenced by the current stock price.  We will see!  

Now imagine what it was when the stock was at $3000 and all the value bros were buying it? 

[John Hjorth]

Jeff, [ @DooDiligence ],

 

Why are you imposing these "Berkshire" restrictions with regard to [[postion size] and [thereby return?!?!]] to yourself? - To me, it makes no sense.

Edited April 17, 2023 by John Hjorth

[DooDiligence]

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

Jeff, [ @DooDiligence ],

 

Why are you imposing these "Berkshire" restrictions with regard to [[postion size] and [thereby return?!?!]] to yourself? - To me, it makes no sense.

 

I thought I wrote a disclaimer about this idea?

[HWWProject]

 

 

Cash/TBills     49%

TIPS                23%

 

Stocks            17%

BRKB

ALSN

AMNF

BKNG

CACI

CCF

EBAY

EEFT

FISV

NVEC

PETS

RGR

 

Other

Long Bond-TLT     5%

Gold-GLD              3%

Commodity-GSG  3%

 

Low on Stocks based on overall market valuation measures.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 18, 2023 by HWWProject
forgot, own AMNF in an old Vanguard acct

[Spooky]

Rate my setup

[WayWardCloud]

I like it. Original enough to vastly differ from average market returns and give you FU money if you are right and or lucky, anchored enough to live to fight another day if you are not.

 

How much of your net worth is this portfolio?

Did the CSU concentration happen from the position growing naturally or was it a deliberate choice to buy that much?

 

Thanks for sharing!

Edited April 22, 2023 by WayWardCloud

[Spooky]

3 hours ago, WayWardCloud said:

I like it. Original enough to vastly differ from average market returns and give you FU money if you are right and or lucky, anchored enough to live to fight another day if you are not.

 

How much of your net worth is this portfolio?

Did the CSU concentration happen from the position growing naturally or was it a deliberate choice to buy that much?

 

Thanks for sharing!

Thanks for the feedback! I made a conscious decision to try and keep close to 50% in CSU starting a couple years ago to try and concentrate in my best ideas and it has been working well. My goal is to move to a portfolio described by Hagstrom in the Warren Buffett portfolio (focus investing) or similar to Nick Sleep (just a three stock portfolio, Amazon, Costco, BRK) and Charlie Munger (BRK, Costco, Li Lu). 
 

I know CSU very well since I work there and generally 50% of my bonus needs to be in shares of the company. Also, given the nature of the company (basically no debt, extremely well diversified, excellent balance sheet) I’m comfortable that this can’t go to zero. Given the growth of the company my allocation was actually getting over 50% but I was able to take my bonus in cash this year to allocate to some other ideas (which is why I have more cash than normal). This portfolio is 100% of my net worth but I’m 37 and have no debt.

Edited April 23, 2023 by Spooky

[dpetrescu]

On 4/17/2023 at 9:30 AM, DooDiligence said:

The recent thread on concentration vs long term holding was very provocative and led me to some rebalancing.

Thanks to @Viking for starting it and to all the contributors for fleshing it out.

 

Presenting, the No Position Bigger than Berkshire Portfolio

 

Here it is in all it's glory

Warts exposed to air

Views expressed are a priori

Warning, there will be hair

 

(Expected Holding Periods => 2-5 years => 5-10 years => 10 years or more)

percentages based on present market values

 

 

2-5 year bucket:

 

DPZ 5.9% (still love the business but would trim on strength and keep a tracker)

 

SFTBY 2.2% (will Masa get back to his roots & will ARM & BABA be helpful? I had no business buying this and had already trimmed and reallocated 50%)

 

STLJF 1.8% (sells wood products to both infrastructure and consumer markets. shows pricing power. results aren't getting recognized)

 

CMCSA 1.3% (kind of pairs with Disney. a gift from my Mom)

CLB 1.2% (an unsightly weed that will eventually be removed)

 

 

5-10 year bucket:

 

Nintendo 6.9% (trusted gaming content for all ages. don't see how Donkey Kong could ever get accused of grooming kids. why isn't this a meme stonk?) (adding and hope to trim opportunistically while keeping a nice sized position that may get moved to the 10 year + lockbox).

 

ADSK 3.6% (sticky virtual infrastructure play. low capex. duopoly with SolidWorks [Dassault] in mechanical and electrical design for builders big and small) (transition from perpetual licensing to SaaS is still rippling through revenues. opportunity to onboard pirated users. hodling.

 

INTC 3.2% (all semis and semicaps have seen their futures in jeopardy at some point) (falling knives hurt) (hodling)

 

BBH 3.2% (spreading out the risk in biotech & pharma)

 

SMH (VanEck Semis) 3% (I like the composition and pair it with Intel) (already trimmed and left a biggish tracker that will get re-trimmed and tiny-tracked if it works out)

 

CITI 1.7% (hopeful that the assets are at least half as solid as the liabilities) (drop it if it gets hot)

 

TYL 1.8% (more sticky virtual infrastructure with low capex requirements. NIC digestion ongoing. would like to see cash flow smooth out)

 

Altria 1.1% (last gasp, or bull in a vape shop crashes into a fortune?) (sell out opportunistically and buy a new pair of pants with the proceeds)

 

 

10 year + lockbox:

 

BRK 15% (there can be only one)

NVO 14% (in a more prosperous world, people are going to eat)

 

EW 11.9% (everbody's got a heart. I sold too many shares early on. CEO Mussalem is stepping down after leading the company since the Baxter spin) ($468m patent infringement judgement for Abbott (mitral / tricuspid), against EW last year. Still dominating TAVR with Medtronic. Abbott got FDA approval for their 1st TAVR device Navitor.)

 

DIS 7.9% (entertain us)

GOOGL 5.6% (there's more money to be made)

 

ABBV 4.6% (lot's of people are uncomfortable in their skin. the commercials are relentless + my Mom left this to me and her Mom left it to her. i'll keep it)

 

ABT 2.4% (competes with Edwards on left ventricular assist devices and now TAVR. won a recent judgement against EW over mitral : they make other essential stuff and occasionally get chided for it : another Grandma to Mom to me stonk. think i'll keep it)

 

HTLZF 1.8% [slow roll up? babies are the best people and grow up to be gamers. pairs well with Nintendo]

 

 

 

 

and about 2% investible cash

 

[Anything that get's bigger than BRK gets a trim]

 

I recently, reluctantly, trimmed NVO and am trying to put 1/3 of the proceeds into Nintendo.

 

I am the Bullgod
I am free
and I feed on all that is forsaken
I'm gonna get you
I see through you
I'm gonna get you

 

More like a Bullfraud who got lucky with a few concentrated purchases [BRK/EW/NVO]

 

looks like we have a couple conviction names in common. 
 

only exception is I have Autodesk in my lockbox, and Tyler Tech in my 10 year+.

 

after a decade of searching for an investment approach - I now realize these companies with an amazing and unusual and unknown competitive advantage are gold.

[Spekulatius]

9 hours ago, dpetrescu said:

 

looks like we have a couple conviction names in common. 
 

only exception is I have Autodesk in my lockbox, and Tyler Tech in my 10 year+.

 

after a decade of searching for an investment approach - I now realize these companies with an amazing and unusual and unknown competitive advantage are gold.

ADSK and TYL competitive advantage is very well known. For once Morningstar and other wide known services like Motley Fool write about them.

Especially with TYL and their relatively slow growth, I would be concerned about getting no return for a decade while the company continues to grow but gets a much lower valuation multiple.

[DooDiligence]

2 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

ADSK and TYL competitive advantage is very well known. For once Morningstar and other wide known services like Motley Fool write about them.

Especially with TYL and their relatively slow growth, I would be concerned about getting no return for a decade while the company continues to grow but gets a much lower valuation multiple.

 

I see the possibility of multiple contraction with Edwards and Novo too but they seem to be growing fast enough to maybe offset a rerating.

 

I like the durability of most of these businesses.

My entry points were wonky on a few of them.

If I wasn't so stupid I'd just go full on index funds.

Not doing too bad thanks to a couple of issues.

[John Hjorth]

1 minute ago, DooDiligence said:

 

I see the possibility of multiple contraction with Edwards and Novo too but they seem to be growing fast enough to maybe offset a rerating.

 

I like the durability of most of these businesses.

My entry points were wonky on a few of them.

If I wasn't so stupid I'd just go full on index funds.

Not doing too bad thanks to a couple of issues.

 

Jeff, [ @DooDiligence ],

 

Please admit it - If you weren't stock picking, you would be bored to the hell.

 

[Spekulatius]

A multiple expansion from 2x EV/revenues to 8x EV/revenues in a decade does wonders for returns, the reverse not so much. I could easily see both EW and TYL trading for 4x revenues rather than 8x.

In the medical space, it happened to MDT for example.

 

[DooDiligence]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

A multiple expansion from 2x EV/revenues to 8x EV/revenues in a decade does wonders for returns, the reverse not so much. I could easily see both EW and TYL trading for 4x revenues rather than 8x.

In the medical space, it happened to MDT for example.

 

 

If I start worrying I trim. If it gets bigger than Berkshire I trim.

Edwards is growing fast enough to keep up with sentiment.

Recently trimmed Novo as it got out over its ski's.