HWWProject

Cash/TBills 49% TIPS 23% Stocks 17% BRKB ALSN AMNF BKNG CACI CCF EBAY EEFT FISV NVEC PETS RGR Other Long Bond-TLT 5% Gold-GLD 3% Commodity-GSG 3% Low on Stocks based on overall market valuation measures.

Thank you for the help, I was stuck in the note on Fair Value. Appreciate this discussion and input from others. Can better see how banks operate.

Could someone point out where the 'unrealized losses' show up for USB in their 2022 10k? I was able to find them for FRC and WAL, not seeing them for USB.

Buying A shares? Baller... Ha! No but I wish. Just using A shares as a proxy. My buy price is actually based on Buffett's '2-Column' valuation method. Was pleased that it correlates well with 1.2 x BV

Patiently waiting as well. My current buy price is $178,500 at A shares.

Hi Vinod - do you know in what year Buffett made this quote? I ask as I'm interested in tracking Buffett's public comments on discount rates, to see how they compare to prevailing inflation/US bond rates of the time period. Hoping to calibrate the equation somewhat to see what there is to learn.

Bad reason to lower it. ;) ... ... (BTW, there are obviously stocks which appear to be (somewhat?) cheap at 15% discount rate even now. They are the stocks of companies in doghouse. E.g. AGCO/DE/CF in agri, Buffett's IBM, some oil stocks - HAL maybe. Of course, the issue is that these companies are encountering headwinds, so it's tough to give them a growth rate that would make them cheap at 15% discount. But if you have some insight that crowd misses, then perhaps some of these might be worth it. Alternatively, there might be international and small/micro-cap stocks that are cheap at 15% discount rate ;). Good luck! ) Thanks for reminder - not to lower my standards but rather have patience and let the market come to me. This market requires a lot of patience. I do want to have a discount rate that responds to inflation and prevailing bond yields so that I'm not missing opportunities and the equation will help me there. I've read a Buffett quote (couldn't find the reference) that he'll move his hurdle rate up as inflation/yields move up, but the opposite is not true - he has a minimum floor he won't go below. I'd especially like to know that floor rate. (been shareholder of CF for past few years it's been a great company)

I'm in the 15% club too, it's been my standard. Except recently been feeling I should lower it as all my calculated Intrinsic Values are so far below current prices. That got me googling on what most value investors use. Found several references to Buffett saying 13% (early 2000's), 15% (mid-90's), and Wally Weitz at 12% (2014).

For those who use DCF models to determine a stock's intrinsic value, what discount rate do you use? This "hurdle rate" should respond to changes in US bond rates, inflation, and the capital gains tax as well. In reading Buffetts' LTS from the late '70s early '80s (era of rampant inflation) inspired me to come up with a simple equation based on his descriptions Minimum Hurdle Rate on taxable investments = (Inflation rate) + (Yield on long-term tax-free muni bonds)/(1-Cap. gains tax rate) + (Equity Risk Premium) Article: http://healthywealthywiseproject.com/2015/02/warren-buffetts-hurdle-rate/ With inflation and interest rates so low it almost seems odd to think about a 'hurdle rate', but intrinsic value changes dramatically from a 10% to 15% discount rate, so the concept is important.