Fairfax Stock - New All Time High

[Munger_Disciple]

2 minutes ago, Dinar said:

60% below replacement cost, 10% cap rate, 4%+ distribution yield that should grow at around 8-10% per annum. 

Sounds cheap but why is the distribution low? Is it because they are reinvesting in new properties?

[Dinar]

39 minutes ago, Munger_Disciple said:

Sounds cheap but why is the distribution low? Is it because they are reinvesting in new properties?

They also buy back roughly 1% of s/o per annum.  Distributions have grown at 9% per annum over the past 15 years.  They are very financially conservative

[backtothebeach]

16 minutes ago, Dinar said:

They also buy back roughly 1% of s/o per annum.  Distributions have grown at 9% per annum over the past 15 years.  They are very financially conservative

how about opening a separate thread for this company?

[Dinar]

1 hour ago, backtothebeach said:

how about opening a separate thread for this company?

There is one. 

[Munger_Disciple]

2 hours ago, Dinar said:

They also buy back roughly 1% of s/o per annum.  Distributions have grown at 9% per annum over the past 15 years.  They are very financially conservative

 

Ok, thanks

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, TB said:

@Parsad - if you don't mind sharing - do you live off dividends or trading income? Also any insights on when Prem is retiring?

 

I have other income, so I don't need to live off the dividends or trading income presently.  But if I choose to retire tomorrow, I could live off the dividends/interest income.  Any trading income is just icing on the cake! 

 

Prem will not retire.  Like Buffett he will likely work till the day he dies.  He loves what he does, and he can continue to compound it at a high rate.

 

Cheers!

[Thrifty3000]

On 10/3/2024 at 5:44 PM, SafetyinNumbers said:

@mananainvesting asks a great question for the board.
 

How do you decide when to trim or sell all of your Fairfax position. All of the inputs you may consider are interesting to me.

 

My plan is not to sell any until I forecast forward ROE below 10%. I think it will be very hard to do that. 

In simplest “best practice” terms:

 

1) estimate intrinsic value

2) create a trade trigger to buy at a 40% discount to your estimate

3) create a trade trigger to sell at a 40% premium to your estimate

4) regularly update your intrinsic value estimate and your trade triggers (quarterly)

5) sit on your hands

 

^ this takes emotion and impulse transactions out of the equation

Edited October 5, 2024 by Thrifty3000

[dartmonkey]

On 9/30/2024 at 3:52 PM, Xerxes said:

Anyone knows if FFH has ever closed above $1700  ? I know it went above it as shown in the 52-week high but not closed. Correct ?

 

Hard to believe that, 6 weeks later, we are at $1946 CAD and $1394 US, an hour before close, touching all time highs intraday for both of them and heading for all time high closes. Not to mention that the thread was started in December 2 years ago, by viking, who said:

 

"Christmas has come early. Fairfax’s stock price has hit a new all time high today in Canadian dollar terms of $791.93 (markets haven’t closed)."

[Hoodlum]

20 minutes ago, dartmonkey said:

 

Hard to believe that, 6 weeks later, we are at $1946 CAD and $1394 US, an hour before close, touching all time highs intraday for both of them and heading for all time high closes. Not to mention that the thread was started in December 2 years ago, by viking, who said:

 

"Christmas has come early. Fairfax’s stock price has hit a new all time high today in Canadian dollar terms of $791.93 (markets haven’t closed)."

 

Volume buying started picking up this afternoon.

[Luke]

51 minutes ago, dartmonkey said:

 

Hard to believe that, 6 weeks later, we are at $1946 CAD and $1394 US, an hour before close, touching all time highs intraday for both of them and heading for all time high closes. Not to mention that the thread was started in December 2 years ago, by viking, who said:

 

"Christmas has come early. Fairfax’s stock price has hit a new all time high today in Canadian dollar terms of $791.93 (markets haven’t closed)."

When Muddy came in, didn't it fall to 1200 CAD for a short period? I saw many guys here loading up back then...great return on those shares so far...

[dartmonkey]

56 minutes ago, Luke said:

When Muddy came in, didn't it fall to 1200 CAD for a short period? I saw many guys here loading up back then...great return on those shares so far...

Yes - in USD, they got as low as $909, or C$1213. The Muddy Waters  exposé was published on Feb 8 and that's when the USD price dropped form the previous day's close at C$1404 to $1213 intraday Feb 8, before the opportunists among us bought enough shares to stop the drop. Then it recovered all its losses by a week later as the market read this board and realized we weren't at all impressed, with the company itself calmly and effectively refuting all the accusations the week afterwards.

 

Even the Feb 8 low was just rolling back the 5 weeks of gains since the end of 2023 (C$1222.51, or C$1202.96 if you adjust for the US$15 dividend.) 

[dartmonkey]

It's a good sign when an all-time high close on both US and Canadian exchanges ($1414.98 and C$1986.30, respectively) hardly merits mentioning.

 

The previous high for FRFHF, $1414, was a week ago (not mentioned here), and the previous highs for FFH were all three of the last 3 days; today's was the 4th day in a row, and there have been new highs 6 of the last 7 trading days. No doubt helped along by the collapse of the Canadian dollar.

 

Maybe the market is expecting an announcement in a week, about inclusion in the S&P TSX 60?

[KFRCanuk]

5 minutes ago, dartmonkey said:

It's a good sign when an all-time high close on both US and Canadian exchanges ($1414.98 and C$1986.30, respectively) hardly merits mentioning.

 

The previous high for FRFHF, $1414, was a week ago (not mentioned here), and the previous highs for FFH were all three of the last 3 days; today's was the 4th day in a row, and there have been new highs 6 of the last 7 trading days. No doubt helped along by the collapse of the Canadian dollar.

 

Maybe the market is expecting an announcement in a week, about inclusion in the S&P TSX 60?

 

$1986 you say? It's fun to read the 1986 Letter to Shareholders https://www.fairfax.ca/wp-content/uploads/1986-Letter.pdf

[Hoodlum]

I just noticed that 263k shares traded at the close on Friday.  I don’t believe that Indexers can add yet, so I wonder who is buying/selling while we wait for the TSX-60 add.  
 

We may see more of this next week, leading up to the possible announcement late on Friday. 
 

Edited December 1, 2024 by Hoodlum

[Masterofnone]

It is logical that traders might buy looking to sell into demand should there be an add. I would guess that much of the volume for the past several weeks involves jockeying around the calculated odds long and short. I would expect this happens any time indices  are scheduled to add or remove components. When Berkshire, with its low trading float got added to the S&P there was speculation and calculation that there would be a significant price jump. The actual rise was a few percent, tempered by these sort of arbitrage trades. The actual required fulfillment of demand of indexers has been taking place by proxy, resulting in the rise in price over the past weeks.

Edited December 1, 2024 by Masterofnone

[MMM20]

2 hours ago, Masterofnone said:

The actual required fulfillment of demand of indexers has been taking place by proxy, resulting in the rise in price over the past weeks.

Isn’t the normal volume in Fairfax nowadays much lower than Berkshire’s was at that time? I wonder if you’re mostly right but there’s still a bigger move coming closer to the date, similar to TPL ahead of its addition to the S&P 500 recently. But I won’t be surprised either way. 
 

Edited December 2, 2024 by MMM20

[Masterofnone]

1 hour ago, MMM20 said:

Isn’t the normal volume in Fairfax nowadays much lower than Berkshire’s was at that time? I wonder if you’re mostly right but there’s still a bigger move coming closer to the date, similar to TPL ahead of its addition to the S&P 500 recently. But I won’t be surprised either way. 
 

Smaller company and smaller index.

[SafetyinNumbers]

10 hours ago, Hoodlum said:

I just noticed that 263k shares traded at the close on Friday.  I don’t believe that Indexers can add yet, so I wonder who is buying/selling while we wait for the TSX-60 add.  
 

We may see more of this next week, leading up to the possible announcement late on Friday. 
 

As a long term holder that wants to see maximum multiple expansion, l’m hoping it’s long term Canadian funds that don’t own Fairfax but are buying it because it’s about to go in their benchmark and it’s too risky to be underweight.

[UK]

33 minutes ago, Haryana said:

Had a new all time high today, are more to come till year end?

 

3000:)

 

 

[SafetyinNumbers]

3 minutes ago, Haryana said:

@SafetyinNumbers?

If you’re asking if we break $3000 by year end, I would say no. By June 30, seems very possible.

[SafetyinNumbers]

2 minutes ago, Haryana said:

Thanks, that is exactly what I was asking but what about CAD2700 by year end or any prospect of jump next week, because this long awaited index inclusion is here without much of a dramatic move yet. 

 

What is more important, the indexed ETFs themselves or their hugging-in-closet funds? 

Any buyers that take up space in shareholder register and are more likely to add than sell have the same impact. In theory, it should be exponential impact as holders with large taxable gains act the same way. There are more of those every day too. 
 

The stock is up 9% so far since the announcement. The high end of the 5-10% range I think that most people expected. What will be interesting is how much multiple expansion it gets once in the index which will take place over years. 

[ValueNation]

Nice round closing number today!

Looking forward to 2026

[Viking]

2 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

Any buyers that take up space in shareholder register and are more likely to add than sell have the same impact. In theory, it should be exponential impact as holders with large taxable gains act the same way. There are more of those every day too. 
 

The stock is up 9% so far since the announcement. The high end of the 5-10% range I think that most people expected. What will be interesting is how much multiple expansion it gets once in the index which will take place over years. 

 

@SafetyinNumbers, you call on the bump due to index inclusion is looking pretty good. Well done! And thanks (my Fairfax swing trade has done very well - with index inclusion being the cherry on top). 

 

And yes, it will be super interesting to see if index inclusion pushes the multiple up. A tailwind for sure... we just don't know how powerful it will be. Your analysis of flows is a helpful way to think about it. 

Edited December 19, 2025 by Viking

[SafetyinNumbers]

3 hours ago, Viking said:

 

@SafetyinNumbers, you call on the bump due to index inclusion is looking pretty good. Well done! And thanks (my Fairfax swing trade has done very well - with index inclusion being the cherry on top). 

 

And yes, it will be super interesting to see if index inclusion pushes the multiple up. A tailwind for sure... we just don't know how powerful it will be. Your analysis of flows is a helpful way to think about it. 

Thanks Viking. Ultimately, it comes back to us as shareholders and what multiples we decide to sell. So far, Fairfax has been buying up the weak hands so worst case, that continues!

[Haryana]

On 12/19/2025 at 9:24 AM, UK said:

 

3000:)

 

 

 

Brokethru the quadruple header wall:

 

Edited December 27, 2025 by Haryana