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Fairfax Stock - New All Time High


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5 hours ago, MMM20 said:

I'm just trying to understand what point @Spooky @Jaygo were making

 

A lot of this is macro speculation so take it with a grain of salt but Canada seems to be in a tough spot right now. Fairfax has been doing quite well vs the TSX recently and I would guess it is a better place to be in the short to medium term. Purchasing power parity has been eroding. Housing investment has been a higher percentage of Canadian GDP (~9% vs OECD average of ~5%) and Canadians have the highest household debt in the G7. The rise in interest rates is starting to bite, causing people to spend less since more disposable income is eaten by higher interest payments (At least this is what I am seeing with people in Toronto).

 

Financial stocks account for ~34% of the TSX 60 and the Canadian banks had been shifting a lot of their loan books to mortgages rather than typical commercial loans. I understand that roughly 20% of mortgages on the big banks books are now in negative amortization. A lot of the banks have been announcing layoffs. Also, our economy is still pretty resource dependent and with China and the world economy slowing down there is less demand for resources. Oil prices have also been softening and the Canadian economy is overweight energy. Canada also has a persistent productivity gap with the US of about 20%.

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Fairfax trades at 990 Euro at Tradegate in Germany for a record in Euro. That‘s 1.436 cad and would be a new alltime high too. Up around 2.5%. Tradegate Germany is thin trading with stocks from Canada and it doesn‘t always tell you the opening price at TSX; but still - it‘s a record.IMG_3206.thumb.png.58a09be6c109d08241afd6a6b25fc071.png

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