Fairfax Stock - New All Time High

[maplevalue]

41 minutes ago, Daphne said:

We did it!  800+!!!

 

And it had to happen on a day where SPY -2.5% 

[Parsad]

21 minutes ago, maplevalue said:

 

And it had to happen on a day where SPY -2.5% 

 

It will hit $900 during the 1st Q of 2023 and $1,000 by the end of 2023...a year ahead of schedule.  Prem's $150M investment will be $300M pretty soon! 

 

And those total return swaps are going to look pretty damn good too!

 

Cheers!

[Xerxes]

1 hour ago, Daphne said:

We did it!  800+!!!

 

Damn !!!

I keep losing money on my "oppertunity cost" tab of not having more

 

[maxthetrade]

1 hour ago, Parsad said:

It will hit $900 during the 1st Q of 2023 and $1,000 by the end of 2023...a year ahead of schedule.  Prem's $150M investment will be $300M pretty soon! 

 

And those total return swaps are going to look pretty damn good too!

 

 

Most likely! The stars really seem to be aligned...

[Haryana]

Fairfax Stock - New All Time High

Last updated: Sep 22, 2023, 5:21 PM ET

 

Source: QuoteMedia

 

Open

1,146.54

Day High/Low

1,160.31/1,146.54

52 Week High/Low

1,160.00/612.00

 

[Xerxes]

For the first time I heard FFH being mentioned on Motley Fool podcast. FFH got a 2 min mention, 30 sec of which was calling Mr Watsa, the Buffett of Canada 
 

They been reading up Viking’ posts. 

[Viking]

@Haryana to be clear, i did not move from zero to 30% cash. I always have a cash balance that i flex up and down depending on the opportunity set. My ‘way overweight’ position in Fairfax has not changed the past couple of months - I continue to think the stock is still wicked cheap (despite hitting all times highs). 

—————

Posted on Tuesday: “Cash. It has been a great year. Time to get more defensive. Lock in gains. Back up to 30% cash. Get paid close to 5% risk free to sit in the weeds and wait and see what Mr Market pukes up next. The move higher in bond yields is what i am watching right now. How high can they go?”
 

“i am not turning bearish. Or bullish.”

Edited September 23, 2023 by Viking

[MMM20]

16 hours ago, Xerxes said:

calling Mr Watsa, the Buffett of Canada 

The time to sell some shares is probably when the stock is trading at 2-3x book and most people accept this characterization without a second thought. 

[Haryana]

On 7/11/2023 at 9:12 PM, Viking said:

@Madpawn my holding as of today is 100% Fairfax. I just added to Fairfax when it went under C$960. I prefer to primarily hold Fairfax today given how cheap i think it is (and i am way overweight). I have held Fairfax India in the past (i recently sold my small remaining position at just just under $14), and sometimes large stakes. But i use it more as a trading vehicle. That works when a stock moves in a sideways band (like Fairfax India has been the past couple of years). But if/when it pops higher then i am toast. I often get too cute with situations like Fairfax India.
 

Fairfax India is unambiguously cheap. And the potential catalysts are there (big undervaluation, holdings are performing well, BIAL is a jewel/trophy asset, management buying back stock, Anchorage IPO, general interest in India). It has a very good management team. The stock is bumping up against $14, so someone is buying… If it sold off I likely would add back. But it would not surprise me to see the stock just keep powering higher.

 

20 hours ago, Viking said:

@Haryana to be clear, i did not move from zero to 30% cash. I always have a cash balance that i flex up and down depending on the opportunity set. My ‘way overweight’ position in Fairfax has not changed the past couple of months - I continue to think the stock is still wicked cheap (despite hitting all times highs). 

—————

Posted on Tuesday: “Cash. It has been a great year. Time to get more defensive. Lock in gains. Back up to 30% cash. Get paid close to 5% risk free to sit in the weeds and wait and see what Mr Market pukes up next. The move higher in bond yields is what i am watching right now. How high can they go?”
 

“i am not turning bearish. Or bullish.”

 

My apologies as I may have misunderstood when you said you were 100% Fairfax on 7/11. I guess you meant that your stock position was 100% Fairfax but you still had cash.

 

[Santayana]

I think he meant he was 100% Fairfax vs. also holding some Fairfax India.

[Viking]

4 hours ago, Haryana said:

 

 

My apologies as I may have misunderstood when you said you were 100% Fairfax on 7/11. I guess you meant that your stock position was 100% Fairfax but you still had cash.

 

@Haryana yes, my July 11 comments was discussing my holdings of Fairfax and Fairfax India. At the time i was 100% Fairfax and 0% Fairfax India. And yes, at the time, i had other investments. Sorry for the confusion. 

[Haryana]

Fairfax Stock - New All Time High

Last updated: Oct 6, 2023, 11:58 PM ET

 

Source: QuoteMedia

 

Open

1,159.98

Day High/Low

1,170.12/1,153.99

52 Week High/Low

1,170.12/612.00

 

[UK]

2 hours ago, Haryana said:

Fairfax Stock - New All Time High

Last updated: Oct 6, 2023, 11:58 PM ET

 

Source: QuoteMedia

 

Open

1,159.98

Day High/Low

1,170.12/1,153.99

52 Week High/Low

1,170.12/612.00

 

 

I would expect the next 52 Week High to be no less than 1,710.12:)

 

Edited October 7, 2023 by UK

[Haryana]

 

I like to applaud every $10 higher just like US congress applauds every other statement of the President.

 

 

[SafetyinNumbers]

7 hours ago, Haryana said:

 

I like to applaud every $10 higher just like US congress applauds every other statement of the President.

 

 

I’m more focused on the weight in the S&P/TSX Composite. While it’s counterintuitive to most value investors, the higher a stock in a major benchmark goes, the higher it will go as long as returns are consistent. For Fairfax, that seems highly probable given the proportion of income coming from investment and associates income. 
 

Fairfax has almost doubled its weight in the index since YE2020 to 95bps. My understanding is that active institutional managers benchmarked to the Composite will likely reconsider Fairfax again when it crosses 100bps. That seems likely to happen in the next month as Fairfax reports Q323. My guess is that book value is closer to $875 which will drag the shares higher as our fellow shareholders will hopefully not want to sell below book. If we go through 100bps, that I think can lead to multiple expansion finally which along with strong earnings will encourage analysts to raise their estimates and target multiples.

 

The next step will be getting bigger than Intact Financial which is heavily owned by those benchmarked to the Composite. It sits at ~125bps. A lot of managers arbitrarily decide they only want exposure to one P&C and there is no reason to sell IFC except it has really underperformed Fairfax recently.

 

 

[gary17]

7 hours ago, Haryana said:

 

I like to applaud every $10 higher just like US congress applauds every other statement of the President.

 

 

HA HA HA

[Xerxes]

4 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

I’m more focused on the weight in the S&P/TSX Composite. While it’s counterintuitive to most value investors, the higher a stock in a major benchmark goes, the higher it will go as long as returns are consistent. For Fairfax, that seems highly probable given the proportion of income coming from investment and associates income. 
 

Fairfax has almost doubled its weight in the index since YE2020 to 95bps. My understanding is that active institutional managers benchmarked to the Composite will likely reconsider Fairfax again when it crosses 100bps. That seems likely to happen in the next month as Fairfax reports Q323. My guess is that book value is closer to $875 which will drag the shares higher as our fellow shareholders will hopefully not want to sell below book. If we go through 100bps, that I think can lead to multiple expansion finally which along with strong earnings will encourage analysts to raise their estimates and target multiples.

 

The next step will be getting bigger than Intact Financial which is heavily owned by those benchmarked to the Composite. It sits at ~125bps. A lot of managers arbitrarily decide they only want exposure to one P&C and there is no reason to sell IFC except it has really underperformed Fairfax recently.

 

 

perhaps your view of quants will also help me on my BBD

 

i had shares lots of which were bought in 2020 and some before. With massive rally from the bottom surely BBD is now more palatable for PMs

[Jaygo]

21 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

I’m more focused on the weight in the S&P/TSX Composite. While it’s counterintuitive to most value investors, the higher a stock in a major benchmark goes, the higher it will go as long as returns are consistent. For Fairfax, that seems highly probable given the proportion of income coming from investment and associates income. 
 

Fairfax has almost doubled its weight in the index since YE2020 to 95bps. My understanding is that active institutional managers benchmarked to the Composite will likely reconsider Fairfax again when it crosses 100bps. That seems likely to happen in the next month as Fairfax reports Q323. My guess is that book value is closer to $875 which will drag the shares higher as our fellow shareholders will hopefully not want to sell below book. If we go through 100bps, that I think can lead to multiple expansion finally which along with strong earnings will encourage analysts to raise their estimates and target multiples.

 

The next step will be getting bigger than Intact Financial which is heavily owned by those benchmarked to the Composite. It sits at ~125bps. A lot of managers arbitrarily decide they only want exposure to one P&C and there is no reason to sell IFC except it has really underperformed Fairfax recently.

 

 

It certainly makes it easier when the Canadian index has been really bad lately. The financials and utes that make up the top ten are getting sold daily.  I guess the expectation is a major recession or depression in Canada that brings down the banks?
 

even CNR is at low multiples to the last 20 years. 

[Spooky]

2 hours ago, Jaygo said:

It certainly makes it easier when the Canadian index has been really bad lately. The financials and utes that make up the top ten are getting sold daily.  I guess the expectation is a major recession or depression in Canada that brings down the banks?
 

even CNR is at low multiples to the last 20 years. 

 

Certainly feels like a reckoning is coming in the Canadian economy given the sea change in interest rates. A higher percentage of our GDP is reliant on real estate and we have the highest household debt in the G7.

[Jaygo]

I guess so. Rates could tip us into a financial depression but there is also a lot of positives as far a resources and pretty decent demographics.  House prices here are nuts but that’s just a currency game really. If the Canuck buck was down 20 points then house prices wouldn’t be so bad compared to other western democracies. 
 

I could see a major economic boom with the right kind of leadership in place. 
 

someone once said during a resource cycle don’t buy Chilean miners buy Chilean  banks and consumer stocks. I personally feel Canada could have a spectacular century if we can get back to the basics of work hard, build families, don’t shoot each other. Crazy I know. 

[Jaygo]

Also we may have a lot of household dept but as far as I know we have very low public dept compared to the other g7’s. We also have a major advantage over the others in our geographic and resource advantage. 
 

to me if the citizens own what’s here we are per capita richer than everyone else along with the Guyanese, Norwegians and Qataris. But Canada has incredible quantities of every resource not just energy so we are diversified over the cycle. 

[MMM20]

Is the concern here that foreign flows out of Canadian equities would put technical pressure on FFH stock in the coming years? Sounds like it would be a buying opportunity given that Fairfax is a global business but maybe I'm missing the point. Thx.

[UK]

42 minutes ago, MMM20 said:

Is the concern here that foreign flows out of Canadian equities would put technical pressure on FFH stock in the coming years? Sounds like it would be a buying opportunity given that Fairfax is a global business but maybe I'm missing the point. Thx.

 

Why do you think funds will flow out of Canadian equities? And where would they flow, Eastern Europe, Middle East or China:)?

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-08/how-china-s-rich-are-using-underground-networks-to-move-their-money-abroad?srnd=premium-europe&leadSource=uverify wall

 

 

[MMM20]

1 hour ago, UK said:

 

Why do you think funds will flow out of Canadian equities? And where would they flow, Eastern Europe, Middle East or China:)?

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-08/how-china-s-rich-are-using-underground-networks-to-move-their-money-abroad?srnd=premium-europe&leadSource=uverify wall

 

 

 

I'm just trying to understand what point @Spooky @Jaygo were making

[UK]

16 minutes ago, MMM20 said:

 

I'm just trying to understand what point @Spooky @Jaygo were making

 

Oh, sorry, I misunderstood your question as a new topic:)