Is The Bottom Almost Here?

[changegonnacome]

13 minutes ago, dealraker said:

change I added to BAC at $32-and-something --- and Wells when it was lower than now- but can't remember the price.  

 

I also added to two banks I've owned since their IPO's: Cathay (CATY since about 1990 or so) and East West (EWBC since 1999).  EWBC has gone up a lot since a few weeks ago, Cathay a tad.

 

I had intended to buy HOPE, but just literally forgot about it.  My family business wanted to buy something Asian, not much of this "something", and had bought HOPE.  But almost immediately they decided to change to an index - chosing EEM.

 

The feeling was the anti-Asian thing was maxing out giving things related to Asia low prices.  It was a small endeavor, almost a speculation.  

 

Nice - yep looked at HOPE before (you've reminded me to look again, thanks).......those customers pay back their loans more than most!........and all things being equal HOPE participates in the success of that demographic.......and at the risk of sounding anti-Caucasian (which I feel I can be as I am one!)......those Asian folks play hard & work harder......and wherever they plant their flag they do well over time.

 

On the banks - in general.........I'd really like to buy them in size if/when the next recession comes.......everybody will have GFC 2.0 disease......when you and I know these things are now built like the Rock of Gibraltar!!!

Edited February 14, 2023 by changegonnacome

[Spekulatius]

38 minutes ago, dealraker said:

change I added to BAC at $32-and-something --- and Wells when it was lower than now- but can't remember the price.  

 

I also added to two banks I've owned since their IPO's: Cathay (CATY since about 1990 or so) and East West (EWBC since 1999).  EWBC has gone up a lot since a few weeks ago, Cathay a tad.

 

I had intended to buy HOPE, but just literally forgot about it.  My family business wanted to buy something Asian, not much of this "something", and had bought HOPE.  But almost immediately they decided to change to an index - chosing EEM.

 

The feeling was the anti-Asian thing was maxing out giving things related to Asia low prices.  It was a small endeavor, almost a speculation.  

$EEM is for rookies because the fees are too high. $VWO from Vanguard is roughly equivalent and much cheaper (0.08% vs 0.68% fees). This 0.6% fee differential does add up:

Edited February 14, 2023 by Spekulatius

[dealraker]

20 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Nice - yep looked at HOPE before (you've reminded me to look again, thanks).......those customers pay back their loans more than most!........and all things being equal HOPE participates in the success of that demographic.......and at the risk of sounding anti-Caucasian (which I feel I can be as I am one!)......those Asian folks play hard & work harder......and wherever they plant their flag they do well over time.

 

On the banks - in general.........I'd really like to buy them in size if/when the next recession comes.......everybody will have GFC 2.0 disease......when you and I know these things are now built like the Rock of Gibraltar!!!

As to predictions of trouble while I was certain most banks were going to collapse by 2005 I was as wrong as the next guy in the end.  Completely missed the overall senerio.  I was astonished at what happened to Cathay and East West.

[dealraker]

6 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

$EEM is for rookies because the fees are too high. $VWO from Vanguard is roughly equivalent and much cheaper (0.08% vs 0.68% fees)

Agreed, but not my decision.  The older guys run the show.  However, they have done an incredible job over the last 50 years so...

 

I wasn't even aware of either until this was brought up 3 months ago.  While it is a small position I'll relay the VWO .08 to them.  They'll likely swap.  

Edited February 14, 2023 by dealraker

[changegonnacome]

To go from macro musing to actionable insights $VWO is exactly the type of vehicle I have my eye on if/when the Fed gets the economy roll over........the US gets to fix its inflation first....that is its right as the worlds reserve currency.....via dollar strength etc.......exporting some of its inflation to rest of the world in the process......hurting EM worst........if we are close to 'being done' with inflation and cuts are just around the corner.......VWO will rip with the dual tailwind of currency appreciation against the dollar and underlying company earnings power growth against what likely to be trough earnings..........EM if you can get the timing right (not easy!) is like a coiled spring!

[Gregmal]

Well, with respect to kind of what I perceived John’s gist to be….the bottom is clearly past us. We don’t need to keep a thread about the bottom going because people want to regurgitate the same “stocks are expensive” stuff we’ve heard for a decade or argue over 3.5 or 4% inflation. Maybe it’s time for another thread that more aptly fits those topics. For one, I thought the Kuppy on Inflation thread was good, but apparently he doesn’t like the vaccines and doing double or triple digits green every year is poor risk management.

[Castanza]

12 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Well, with respect to kind of what I perceived John’s gist to be….the bottom is clearly past us. We don’t need to keep a thread about the bottom going because people want to regurgitate the same “stocks are expensive” stuff we’ve heard for a decade or argue over 3.5 or 4% inflation. Maybe it’s time for another thread that more aptly fits those topics. For one, I thought the Kuppy on Inflation thread was good, but apparently he doesn’t like the vaccines and doing double or triple digits green every year is poor risk management.

Thats fair, and I deleted my comment so as to not ruffle feathers. When the markets are down people discuss it. Likewise when it’s up. It’s the nature of the beast. Nothing is certain and the market can change. I think most on here know that it’s a fools errand to invest solely based on macro predictions. But I still enjoy the commentary and time people put into their posts. The comment came across as “I’m entitled to specific types of posts.” Having a wide range of topics to discuss is beneficial overall to the forum. And I welcome anyone who takes a good amount of time to share their thoughts on mostly any particular topic. I’ve learned a lot from you, thePupil and BG regarding real estate. Dealbreaker has been interesting as of late discussing his investment career. Bill has been great with his Fed/treasury insights. 
 

How’d that fishing trip go? 

[Gregmal]

25 minutes ago, Castanza said:

How’d that fishing trip go? 

African pompano which is a gorgeous fish, mackerel, and some yellowtail. Shark fishing tonight in honor of CPI.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

53 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Well, with respect to kind of what I perceived John’s gist to be….the bottom is clearly past us. We don’t need to keep a thread about the bottom going because people want to regurgitate the same “stocks are expensive” stuff we’ve heard for a decade or argue over 3.5 or 4% inflation. Maybe it’s time for another thread that more aptly fits those topics. For one, I thought the Kuppy on Inflation thread was good, but apparently he doesn’t like the vaccines and doing double or triple digits green every year is poor risk management.

 

Respectfully, I disagree. Traditionally markets don't bottom BEFORE the recession. And traditionally they don't bottom without a capitulation event. We've seen neither and we find ourselves in an economic environment that has many leading and coincident indicators suggesting it's gonna get rough. 

 

Maybe this time it IS different - but I think we're still in the 3-4th inning. This will be a 2-year event like 2007/2008 and 2000/2001.

 

IMO, all we've seen is the most egregious speculative excess come out of the market, not an actual correction for interest rates/inflation/declining earnings/etc. 

[Gregmal]

15 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

Respectfully, I disagree. Traditionally markets don't bottom BEFORE the recession. And traditionally they don't bottom without a capitulation event. We've seen neither and we find ourselves in an economic environment that has many leading and coincident indicators suggesting it's gonna get rough. 

 

Maybe this time it IS different - but I think we're still in the 3-4th inning. This will be a 2-year event like 2007/2008 and 2000/2001.

 

IMO, all we've seen is the most egregious speculative excess come out of the market, not an actual correction for interest rates/inflation/declining earnings/etc. 

I would think this sort of thesis or whatever would fall into a different category. Finance is wayyyy too full of these open ended, never ending, types of predictions. It’s how folks spent the past decade shorting FANG or Tesla because “it’s a bubble”…after a certain period of time, even just purely from a risk management perspective, you need to settle up.
 

Index or not(which is another subject we ve discussed) the bottom for now is very clearly in. It seems we are right back into good old fashioned valuation short territory, which is basically what the case is when a thesis hinges on “everyone’s gonna miss earnings” or “analysts are all gonna get together and revise estimates down” or something. Possible, but not realistic. If we never draw the line then what’s the point of any of this? Can I just openly keep arguing that the top isn’t in because sometime down the line we will make an all time high again? Can I still argue that 2008s bottom isn’t in? 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

13 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

I would think this sort of thesis or whatever would fall into a different category. Finance is wayyyy too full of these open ended, never ending, types of predictions. It’s how folks spent the past decade shorting FANG or Tesla because “it’s a bubble”…after a certain period of time, even just purely from a risk management perspective, you need to settle up.
 

Index or not(which is another subject we ve discussed) the bottom for now is very clearly in. It seems we are right back into good old fashioned valuation short territory, which is basically what the case is when a thesis hinges on “everyone’s gonna miss earnings” or “analysts are all gonna get together and revise estimates down” or something. Possible, but not realistic. If we never draw the line then what’s the point of any of this? Can I just openly keep arguing that the top isn’t in because sometime down the line we will make an all time high again? Can I still argue that 2008s bottom isn’t in? 

 

It's literally been ~2 months of an upswing and 4 months since the absolute lows. During that time we've barely made a new local high before pulling back with no real definitive buy in to the recent "breakout". More of a sideways grind then anything definitive in either direction. 

 

And over that 4 month period?  Fundamentals have continued to deteriorate while alternatives to equity have only gotten more attractive. The earnings/margin contraction that members like me have been warning about for nearly a year is here. Global liquidity is still be drained and expectations for future earnings are coming down with each subsequent miss. 

 

It's not uncommon to get multi-month bear market rallies. I've seen nothing to suggest this one is different. If we climb from here for another 2-3 months, I'd consider that I'm wrong. But as of right now, there is nothing atypical about this rally compared to prior bear market rallies. 

[Castanza]

1 hour ago, SHDL said:

 

Typo I'm sure but I had to laugh.

 

Came for investment ideas, staying for @dealraker's stories...

Well some of investing it temperament and emotion. Dealraker has shown how remaining agnostic towards your positions can be beneficial in the long run. 

[Castanza]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

African pompano which is a gorgeous fish, mackerel, and some yellowtail. Shark fishing tonight in honor of CPI.

Very nice always wanted to do some big game fishing 

[Sweet]

1 hour ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

Respectfully, I disagree. Traditionally markets don't bottom BEFORE the recession. And traditionally they don't bottom without a capitulation event. We've seen neither and we find ourselves in an economic environment that has many leading and coincident indicators suggesting it's gonna get rough. 

 

Maybe this time it IS different - but I think we're still in the 3-4th inning. This will be a 2-year event like 2007/2008 and 2000/2001.

 

IMO, all we've seen is the most egregious speculative excess come out of the market, not an actual correction for interest rates/inflation/declining earnings/etc. 

 

Didn't we have a recession?

 

Or do believe that two negative quarters is no longer a recession anymore?

[TwoCitiesCapital]

9 minutes ago, Sweet said:

 

Didn't we have a recession?

 

Or do believe that two negative quarters is no longer a recession anymore?

 

They never counted the two quarters in 2015 as one even though it was accompanied by one of the longest earnings recessions in US equities too. They're not counting the 2 quarters in 2022 as one either. Both would have been extraordinary mild recessions if counted (if we're suggesting 2022 is already over). 

 

The two quarters rule has always been a rule of thumb. There are a number of indicators the NBER looks at with employment being dominant among them. I generally agree with their approach in determining what constitutes a recession. 

 

The rising unemployment from it's current levels to 4+% will likely mark the start of any NBER declared recession - but like always they'll announce it with a 6 month lag. 

Edited February 15, 2023 by TwoCitiesCapital

[Sweet]

20 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

They never counted the two quarters in 2015 as one even though it was accompanied by one of the longest earnings recessions in US equities too. They're not counting the 2 quarters in 2022 as one either. Both would have been extraordinary mild recessions if counted (if we're suggesting 2022 is already over). 

 

The two quarters rule has always been a rule of thumb. There are a number of indicators the NBER looks at with employment being dominant among them. I generally agree with their approach in determining what constitutes a recession. 

 

The rising unemployment from it's current levels to 4+% will likely mark the start of any NBER declared recession - but like always they'll announce it with a 6 month lag. 

2015 did not have two consecutive quarters of negative growth:

 

Q4 '15:  +0.6%

Q3 '15:  +1.3%

Q2 '15:  +2.3%

Q1 '15:  +3.3%

 

The working definition of what is considered a recession was always two negative quarter until last year.  

The economy did contract for two quarters - it wasn’t a quarterly anomaly.  There is a chance that we have had the recession and the bottom is in.

 

And remember, the covid induced recession was enormous, and it wiped out a lot of businesses and a lot of wealth.

 

I’m not claiming to know if the bottom is in, because I can’t know, but I do feel there is an elephant in the room.

 

 

Edited February 15, 2023 by Sweet

[Gregmal]

GS, UBER, MKL, CLF, HIW, FFH, CVX, NFLX

 

Bunch of totally random and rather diverse group of stocks. “The market” thing is a lazy crock of crap. Which of these haven’t bottomed or are at risk of new lows because the analysts lower their excel targets or unemployment ticks up to 4%? I have trouble seeing how for most stocks, you didn’t already have your chance. Of course there’s exceptions like with Google or Vornado, but by and large the “everywhere” opportunity already occurred.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

14 minutes ago, Sweet said:

2015 did not have two consecutive quarters of negative growth:

 

Q4 '15:  +0.6%

Q3 '15:  +1.3%

Q2 '15:  +2.3%

Q1 '15:  +3.3%

 

The working definition of what is considered a recession was always two negative quarter until last year.  

The economy did contract for two quarters - it wasn’t a quarterly anomaly.  There is a chance that we have had the recession and the bottom is in.

 

And remember, the covid induced recession was enormous, and it wiped out a lot of businesses and a lot of wealth.

 

I’m not claiming to know if the bottom is in, because I can’t know, but I do feel there is an elephant in the room.

 

 

 

My apologies. I thought I had recalled the oil bust having two quarters of negative GDP growth. I might be recalling incorrectly, thinking of a different period, or maybe the numbers were revised higher after the initial releases.

 

It HAS happened before though. 

 

The 2020 recession DID have two quarters of negative GDP, but was officially announced before the second quarter data was known. 2008 recession was also called prior to two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth were confirmed.

The 2001 recession NEVER had two consecutive quarters negative and 1947 had two consecutive quarters without ever being declared a recession.  

 

The two quarters rule has been a shorthand for decades, but has never been the official rule. It's always been based on widespread economic impact. Two quarters of -0.1% might not be sufficient. A single quarter of -10% would be. 

 

 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

29 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

GS, UBER, MKL, CLF, HIW, FFH, CVX, NFLX

 

Bunch of totally random and rather diverse group of stocks. “The market” thing is a lazy crock of crap. Which of these haven’t bottomed or are at risk of new lows because the analysts lower their excel targets or unemployment ticks up to 4%? I have trouble seeing how for most stocks, you didn’t already have your chance. Of course there’s exceptions like with Google or Vornado, but by and large the “everywhere” opportunity already occurred.

 

The indices are made up of totally diverse stocks too and tell the same story. This is exactly why I use them to gauge sentiment and overall direction. I fail to see your point.

 

Bear markets are riddled with  periods where the average stock does 15-25% multi-month rallies on the way to new lows. We've seen two prior to this one. 

 

There are always examples of stocks that do better or do worse. There's examples of a few stocks that buck the trend and kill the recession. But on average, stocks aren't where you want to be when earnings are contracting, PMIs are negative, or yield curves inverted. We've got all 3. 

 

 

[Gregmal]

Because the above approach involves living in a vacuum. Just saying indicator a, indicator b, and indicator c….nope, steer clear of stocks! Looking at those companies, admittedly just examples, forces you to envision these gargantuan sell offs and ask yourself 1) what really changes based on the assumptions, 2) why wouldn’t those just be layup opportunities, and 3) what if the really terrible things just never happen…are those bad things to own anyway? I mean does nobody believe in just finding good companies and investing through the cycle? Because the benefit there….is that 3 of the 123 predicted recessions actually end up happening. Bailing on good investments on the other 120 false alarms is guaranteed to produce poor long term results.

Edited February 15, 2023 by Gregmal

[TwoCitiesCapital]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

Because the above approach involves living in a vacuum. Just saying indicator a, indicator b, and indicator c….nope, steer clear of stocks! Looking at those companies, admittedly just examples, forces you to envision these gargantuan sell offs and ask yourself 1) what really changes based on the assumptions, 2) why wouldn’t those just be layup opportunities, and 3) what if the really terrible things just never happen…are those bad things to own anyway? I mean does nobody believe in just finding good companies and investing through the cycle? Because the benefit there….is that 3 of the 123 predicted recessions actually end up happening. Bailing on good investments on the other 120 false alarms is guaranteed to produce poor long term results.

 

You act like I'm sitting in cash and afraid. I'm roughly 50-60% stocks. I've been buying every dip - I've just been selling every rip. 

 

I still believe in buying quality companies. I just also believe in trying to maximize my returns and quality companies gotten taken out back and shot in 3/2020, in Q4 2018, in 2008/2009, etc etc etc

 

A rising tide means you can buy just about anything because it lifts all boats. A receding tide means just about everything will fall - some less than others - but most will fall. Why put your cash to work in such an environment where that outcome highly likely? 

 

It's not guaranteed - that's why I still own equities. But it's likely based on historical recessions which is why my risk is dialed way, way back. 

Edited February 15, 2023 by TwoCitiesCapital

[Gregmal]

My point is that this sort of guessing game and fear watching strategy is a losing strategy. The odds are unquestionably against those that play it. Even here, we ve heard whining about expensive stocks, stories of the E falling off, run of the mill recessions, depressions, stagflation, 8% treasuries, you name it. And we re at 4000 SPY. Those mega bears with 3200-2800 targets sit around peddling the datapoints, but from here, what was the right move? Sitting around like a pig for an extra 10-15% in October cuz big bad JPow said “there will be pain”??!? Now at 4,000 those people are what? Gonna hang around hoping to get a quote they had in October? Maybe a few points lower? It’s a dumb game.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

My point is that this sort of guessing game and fear watching strategy is a losing strategy. The odds are unquestionably against those that play it. Even here, we ve heard whining about expensive stocks, stories of the E falling off, run of the mill recessions, depressions, stagflation, 8% treasuries, you name it. And we re at 4000 SPY. Those mega bears with 3200-2800 targets sit around peddling the datapoints, but from here, what was the right move? Sitting around like a pig for an extra 10-15% in October cuz big bad JPow said “there will be pain”??!? Now at 4,000 those people are what? Gonna hang around hoping to get a quote they had in October? Maybe a few points lower? It’s a dumb game.

 

1) everyone who predicted falling earnings was right (I was one of them)

 

2) everyone who predicted inflation being sticky and rates going higher for longer was right (I wasn't one of them)

 

3) we're at 4,000 S&P - significantly off the prior highs AND in an environment less supportive of forward looking returns in equities than before the 19% drop. People like me have been directionally right for the last year. What did being concerned about valuations and increasing economic fragility get me? Dramatically outperforming on equities AND fixed income. My average equity was flat to up last year. My fixed income skewed short term and dramatically outperforming equities and fixed income benchmarks. It was primarily crypto that drug down my absolute returns last year. Largely because I DONT engage in trading it because I don't trust my emotions with swings of 20-30% in a single month so I just held and slowly DCA'd the whole way down. Still outperformed crypto benchmarks by being predominantly in BTC. 

 

4) those mega bears, myself included, are peddling 3,200 targets can still invest. I was buying SI calls when the stock was near $11. I was buying Coinbase in the 30-40s. I bought BABA near it's lows. I was buying GBTC at near 50% discounts to NAV post FTX at $8-9. I've been buying more WCP.TO on every dip below $9. 

 

But I've also sold some of that COIN in the 70s and 80s, I sold some of that GBTC when it hit $11+, I sold some SI calls OTM against my position when it was $19+, I've let go of portions of WCP everytime it's popped above $10-11.

 

The proceeds go into money market, or short term bond funds yielding 4-6% YTM, or intermediate Treasury funds for duration. They sit there until the next opportunity presents itself. Buy the dip. Sell the rip.

 

This isn't a market that has paid you to buy and hold for the last 15 months. Why we suddenly think that has changed is beyond me. Inflation is still here. Stocks are still expensive. The Fed is still removing liquidity and hiking rates. Earnings have become more fragile. Economic indicators are suggesting more pain is to come. The yield curve is screaming economic slowdown. 

 

Rent the rallies. Lower your risk. It worked for me in 2019/2020 where I sidestepped much of the pain that March. It worked for me in 2022 where I sidestepped much of the pain in equity and debt markets. And I believe it will work again in 2023. 

Edited February 15, 2023 by TwoCitiesCapital

[Gregmal]

27 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

1) everyone who predicted falling earnings was right (I was one of them)

Except they said falling earning would warrant SPY 3000 or whatever…that’s the problem with this little “let’s be cute” game. Unless you’re playing the pump and dump or smash and grab, short term, trade meaningless fluctuations game, you’re losing big time.  
 

You see it all over. And I guess it’s just the game people play. But if predicting a short lived selloff and then having 3-5 weeks to cover is your alpha, that’s a hard way to make a living. Last year REITs of certain types were the best example of this. You had the Chanos types making all sorts of grand fundamental predictions. Few actually happened. Private markets were resilient. Public markets sold off and “see I knew it!” And “see, REITs are bad inflation hedges”, subscription seller Rob hedgeye “called the INVH decline” and really, you step back, and view things from 50,000 ft, and it’s like…dude you did all this for a short term trading window? Unless you’re in marketing or bought FANG stocks at 40x non gaap eps, you were better off just going to sleep. And that before even factoring in taxes. 

[thepupil]

a lot of this is repetitive from what I’ve already said, but I have a salt/alcohol induced hangover after a lovely Valentine’s Day dinner and am dehydrated and can’t sleep.
 

I think we’re way too early in all this to declare any kind of “winner” and who was “right”. It’s been a very short time period.
 

I think “bears” would be proven right if we see a “lost decade” type environment where stocks fail to provide  much compensation above that of alternatives, specifically bonds, so that’s a 6+ year type of thing and even then will be sensitive as to which point one measures from. “bulls” would be proven right in the opposite case. We’re trying to declare a winner in 6 months vs 6 years. Like if stocks are up 10%/yr for next 7 years and bonds make 4.5%, bulls win. If stocks up 5% yr and bonds make 4.5%
 

but that’s kind of artificial because we don’t have to be bulls or bears and I think the most bearish people on are are 60-80% long stocks and acknowledge that stocks generally provide better LONG term returns. 

 

I’d frame it all as an opportunity to not be a one dimensional bear/bull and use the far more competitive yields offered by fixed income to take incrementally less risk and make similar overall portfolio returns.  For my whole investment career carrying cash/bonds/etc has been a hugely losing proposition and one was kind of consciously forced to take all equity risk.   
 

I’m not hugely bearish or bullish, but do think the game has changed and FI is not so awfully assymetric/betting on breaking the zero bound like it was the last 10 years. 

 

we have positive real yields, and nominal FI yields are similar if not greater than (in some cases) the earnings yield on the stock market. Rising rates are scary if you own rate sensitive things (like say highly levered real estate), but ultimately  this is a wonderful thing for those with capital who don’t want to be entirely in equities.

 

I’ve never felt more wealthy and secure because I no longer have the Fed competing with me for safe assets/yield. Inflation may be 3% 5% or 10%, but the interest income on my (and my retired parents)  slugof safe assets is up 100-300%. A greater balance between the levered equity/asset holders (real estate / PE /etc) and lenders is being achieved.
 

What a time to be a well capitalized rentier!*

 

I think it’s “too good” and want to own some duration because I don’t think it will last. I don’t think I should be able to make 1.6% real in a government guaranteed instrument for 30 years, that’s just a risk free handout to capital. Like why the hell is the US government paying me 7.5% effective interest? It will come down, but it’s still stupid.
 

 

*now I think if you’re gregmal or dealraker, you’d counter that the rise in yields is a trap and that one will compound at a higher rate just saying in stocks/business for the long run. My response is “yea probably” so but I’m only 70-80% sure if that rather than 100%, and I don’t think owning a little FI is gonna kill me. 
 

maybe this is veering on the “bearish” but it does feel to me that outside of the very speculative stuff we are at a point where we’re kind of having our cake and eating it too. Real estate and stocks haven’t really come down too much (in some cases not at all) despite the increase in cost of capital. Sort of a strange, but also a nice opportunity to reevaluate one’s asset allocation without the emotional baggage of a huge drawdown. 
 

I realize this thread is about predicting a short term bottom and I keep trying to make it really boring and proselytizing a 20% bond allocation and I shoukd go over to bogleheads and go buy a Buick or something. 

Edited February 15, 2023 by thepupil