Is The Bottom Almost Here?

[dealraker]

Don't get me wrong, I love Parsad's topic and the discussions!  

[Gregmal]

23 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

Maybe I misunderstood your argument.

 

I'm just thinking plain vanilla 3rd grade division and multiplication > Ivy League geniuses.

The Ivys are special. But they’ve all been selling expertise that works great in theory and then fails in the real world for decades because folks buy it. I’ve never seen someone consistently forecast anything for something as useless and ambiguous as a 500 company collection of stocks repping “the market”.
 

It’s like folks who buy lottery tickets. “You ever win those scratch offs?” Lol I mean not to pick on Kyle Bass but he got popular in June and July and came nowhere close to being right about his forecasts; has done dismally with anything publicly traceable all decade, and nevertheless marches on unabated and unashamed still touting the same crap. In fact, Cathy Wood in 2018 or whatever was more correct/precise with her Tesla price target(hitting it like 3-4 different times although continuing to up it the whole way)…that should say something to folks about the stupidity of the guessing game.
 

Bizarrely, the only guy I’ve seen who changed his stripes recently was Prem  Watsa. Finally just shut his mouth and stopped pretending to be a macro expert, sure he covered his shorts at the top, but otherwise just basically packed it in and decided to invest in his circle of competency and the results the last few years have been very good.

 

So IDK, I’m just perplexed when I see folks continuously trying to play this game. You don’t beat the house. Definitely not over the long run, if you’re playing their games. Successful investing isn’t “guess” the collection of 500 stock weighted average earnings, “guess” the multiple, wait aimlessly until it goes way below that, buy, then “guess” next years 500 stock weighted average earnings, “guess” next years weighted average earnings multiple, and then wait endlessly til it reaches that to sell. Like what’s even the point in trying to do that?

[Gregmal]

34 minutes ago, Dinar said:

I generally agree with you, except David Tepper who is a phenomenal trader went on CNBC a couple of weeks ago and said that he thinks S&P should go to 3000-3200

And I generally agree with David Tepper and he might be right. But 1) he’s also David Tepper and 2) he’s also fully invested and levered.

[dealraker]

 

 

Gotta watch macro forcasting...'casue if you get one right you'll spend the rest of your life trying to repeat that experience.  

Edited December 31, 2022 by dealraker

[Jaygo]

22 hours ago, Gregmal said:

I love reading. Always have. However I’ve never been able to finish books easily. Once I get through enough of the story to which things lose their mystique and become predictable my mind checks out and it’s on to the next one. Last few chapters are just there for others to stay preoccupied with while I get a head start on the next story. 

That’s hilarious. Try reading “lonesome dove” or “for whom the bell tolls”. I guarantee you stick it out until the end. 
 

I drop half finished books all the time, I look at them like tv shows, I don’t want to waste my life. I have migrated to some classics and historical fiction and am much more inclined to finish them. I tend to learn a bit as well

[John Hjorth]

15 hours ago, Gregmal said:

... Bizarrely, the only guy I’ve seen who changed his stripes recently was Prem  Watsa. Finally just shut his mouth and stopped pretending to be a macro expert, sure he covered his shorts at the top, but otherwise just basically packed it in and decided to invest in his circle of competency and the results the last few years have been very good. ...

 

@Gregmal,

 

The above actually stroke me like a cub over my head while reading it. It's actually true. I also now hear the resounding silence of the former preferred/favorite activity by some CoBF members on here: Prem Watsa-bashing [, which has actually stopped] - for a good reason, but after I-don't-know-how-many lean years! -Good! -and about time!

[DooDiligence]

The title of this thread sounds like an impatient grinder post.

[ValueArb]

Sounds reasonable.

[backtothebeach]

3 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

Sounds reasonable.

Don't know who this guy is, but what a waste of energy trying to predict this stuff.

 

[Spekulatius]

22 minutes ago, backtothebeach said:

Don't know who this guy is, but what a waste of energy trying to predict this stuff.

 

Not only that, I think there has been a lot of tax loss selling too. At least it feel that way watch in the “tape”. So his prediction is likely based on a false hypothesis as well.

[Luca]

https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/home.htm

 

[Luca]

3890 fair Value for S P 500 according to professor damodaran  

 

Doesnt look like he expects a recession, estimates would have to be lower then

Edited January 2, 2023 by Luca

[Gregmal]

So even Burry can see CPI probably going negative. And he s got one eye.

[Aurel]

In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king!

[Gregmal]

I still continue to be amazed at how many sleezeball fund guys get airtime with no pushback to basically claim you need a recession to get back to growth…. That’s like saying you need a stock to lose 20% so we can do 6% a year for the next 3 years…..the only ones this benefits are the ones shorting that stock and then waiting to cover and go long. Everyone else would be better off just hanging with the status quo. 

 

 

Any young or newbie investor really needs to soak the last 3 years in and internalize how rigged the entire system is because it’s fundamental to longer term outperformance. 

[Luca]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

I still continue to be amazed at how many sleezeball fund guys get airtime with no pushback to basically claim you need a recession to get back to growth…. That’s like saying you need a stock to lose 20% so we can do 6% a year for the next 3 years…..the only ones this benefits are the ones shorting that stock and then waiting to cover and go long. Everyone else would be better off just hanging with the status quo. 

 

 

Any young or newbie investor really needs to soak the last 3 years in and internalize how rigged the entire system is because it’s fundamental to longer term outperformance. 

Have a look at bill ackman posting on twitter about coke being so dangerous for US citizens due to health problems while holding dominos etc. Maybe he is short again?

[UK]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-04/piper-sandler-bear-kantrowitz-sees-another-big-down-year-for-s-p-500

 

Equity investors hoping for a reprieve in the new year after a brutal 2022 are likely to be disappointed, according to Michael Kantrowitz at Piper Sandler & Co. The strategist, ranked No. 3 in the last year’s Institutional Investor survey, predicts that the S&P 500 will fall 16% to 3,225. The price target is the lowest among Wall Street prognosticators tracked by Bloomberg. Should that call come true, it’d be the first time since 2002 — and only the fifth time in almost a century — that the benchmark index suffered at least two consecutive years of double-digit declines.  

[ValueArb]

On 1/3/2023 at 2:26 PM, Luca said:

Have a look at bill ackman posting on twitter about coke being so dangerous for US citizens due to health problems while holding dominos etc. Maybe he is short again?

 

Why would a multibillion-dollar hedge fund manager buy fast food? For major profits. 

“We’ve been a big investor in the space,” Bill Ackman, founder and CEO of Pershing Square said of fast-food chains on Thursday.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/id/46667568

Edited January 5, 2023 by ValueArb

[CorpRaider]

On 1/3/2023 at 4:26 PM, Luca said:

Have a look at bill ackman posting on twitter about coke being so dangerous for US citizens due to health problems while holding dominos etc. Maybe he is short again?

He's the spicy chicken worst...

Edited January 5, 2023 by CorpRaider

[mattee2264]

I think two years of falling stock and bond markets seems pretty appropriate within the context of the preceding bubbles in both asset classes. I am also expecting markets to bottom out around 3200. That would be a 35% decline from the peak which is pretty much par the course for a recessionary bear market. 

 

I find all this talk about 2022 being an annus horribilis with the implication 2023 will be a much better year to be a bit overdone. The S&P 500 is only down 20% from the peak which was the product of speculative excesses and rose-tinted optimism and central banks have made it clear we still have some way to go with interest rate increases. 

[Gregmal]

1 hour ago, ValueArb said:

 

Why would a multibillion-dollar hedge fund manager buy fast food? For major profits. 

“We’ve been a big investor in the space,” Bill Ackman, founder and CEO of Pershing Square said of fast-food chains on Thursday.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/id/46667568

I love Bills investment style but he s really outed himself as a real hypocrite and pos the last few years. He whines about COVID killing people to pump his positions and then a couple years later is one of the largest advocates of actions that he knows will result in economic hardship and job loss which is linked to killing people as well. What was that stat? Like 1% increase in unemployment leads to like 50k deaths? But that’s ok. Whereas I’m sure the hedge fund guys egging this on would object to someone stating we should kill or throw in jail 1,000 hedge fund guys for every 1% increase in employment. 
 

There hasn’t been real inflation since the summer and we re really just waiting to lap the war spike so if nothing else you’re really starting to see the cream rise to the top here in terms of guys outing themselves with what they’re advocating for. And what their motives are. What kind of person, who’s already well off, advocates like this for hardship for normal people? 

[fareastwarriors]

Inflation busting

 

 

[Sweet]

8 hours ago, Gregmal said:

I love Bills investment style but he s really outed himself as a real hypocrite and pos the last few years. He whines about COVID killing people to pump his positions and then a couple years later is one of the largest advocates of actions that he knows will result in economic hardship and job loss which is linked to killing people as well. What was that stat? Like 1% increase in unemployment leads to like 50k deaths? But that’s ok. Whereas I’m sure the hedge fund guys egging this on would object to someone stating we should kill or throw in jail 1,000 hedge fund guys for every 1% increase in employment. 
 

There hasn’t been real inflation since the summer and we re really just waiting to lap the war spike so if nothing else you’re really starting to see the cream rise to the top here in terms of guys outing themselves with what they’re advocating for. And what their motives are. What kind of person, who’s already well off, advocates like this for hardship for normal people? 

This week on Twitter he has been complaining about Pepsi and Coke, saying they are major causes of bad health…. But he owned McDonalds and Wendy’s as per the article.

[Gregmal]

42 minutes ago, Sweet said:

This week on Twitter he has been complaining about Pepsi and Coke, saying they are major causes of bad health…. But he owned McDonalds and Wendy’s as per the article.

Don’t forget dominos. His crusade against wellness company Herbalife, and his love of Valeant which was robbing people dependent on drugs. 
 

He s probably the greatest long term fundamental investor I’ve seen first hand(aka not someone like Buffett who did his thing decades ago), but also 100% the embodiment of why Wall Street people and hedge funders are universally thought of as scumbags.

[Dinar]

38 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Don’t forget dominos. His crusade against wellness company Herbalife, and his love of Valeant which was robbing people dependent on drugs. 
 

He s probably the greatest long term fundamental investor I’ve seen first hand(aka not someone like Buffett who did his thing decades ago), but also 100% the embodiment of why Wall Street people and hedge funders are universally thought of as scumbags.

Greg, you should take a look at Chris Hohn at TCI - I think he is as good as Ackman, also Nick Sleep - his letters are floating around the web, and he did his thing 20 years ago.