Is The Bottom Almost Here?

[mattee2264]

The way I am seeing it we are still at 20x 2021 earnings of around $200 which most likely are peak earnings for this cycle and more artificial than peak earnings of other cycles because of the unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus and the outsized benefits of the pandemic to tech companies that dominate the S&P 500. Also these earnings were boosted by the ability of companies initially to pass on price increases while maintaining peak margins and buybacks have also been very supportive of earnings this cycle helped by low interest rates. 

 

20x multiple has been pretty typical this century but in large part that is because bond yields have been very low and there is a real prospect that bond yields will have to normalize around 5% to keep inflation in check. That would seem to justify a multiple of more like 17-18x and even lower if bond yields need to go even higher. So you can question the multiple implicit in the current SPY valuation.

 

And then you need to ask what normal earnings are likely to be.

Market seems to be happy to look through any 2023 recession expecting a V shaped recovery similar to what transpired after the COVID shock. And assuming that once all this passes we will be on track for the $220-$230 EPS that was expected at the start of this year. That gives you a forward multiple of 17-18x which still seems quite rich for a moderate rather than a low interest rate environment. 

 

But what if earnings fall below $200 (which seems likely) and then do not fully recover so remain below $200 for a few years? And what if interest rates remain around 4-5% or so as central banks are wary about pivoting until inflation is below target? 

 

 

[changegonnacome]

9 hours ago, mattee2264 said:

But what if earnings fall below $200 (which seems likely) and then do not fully recover so remain below $200 for a few years? And what if interest rates remain around 4-5% or so as central banks are wary about pivoting until inflation is below target? 

 

This is all true and something i expect.

 

The real shocker for 'the market' thats coming...& the moment of peak fear & the one I'm preparing for as buying opportunity of epic proportions.......will be the point where Fed pivot dream collapses..............this will be when the unemployment is rising towards 5% and US is printing recession numbers.......yet the Fed doesnt stimulate, it doesnt cut rates as it has for 40 years...............it simply does NOTHING............ and holds the line at 5% Fed funds and waits and watches for inflation to moderate to 2.x%

 

The 40-year Fed 'put' still characterizes this market & its multiple.....the Pavlovian response is deeply in-grained in participants......Economy weakening/SPY down 30% = Fed stimulus = market rally....when that doesn't happen it will be quite shocking to people who have only known this world. Panic and 'get me out' at any price will kick in.

 

Let me be clear however - I'm giving Jay-P & Co credit for something they are yet to do......which is to show true grit & courage....which is to hold steadfast against a weakening economy/higher unemployment.....& to become so deeply unpopular that they will actually become hated by the right, the left, the centre...the president and the congress.....but do it anyway....because they know its the right thing to do........in the pursuit of the greater good which will be returning price stability.

 

Bridgewater is less optimistic.......their base case is the Fed chickens out and starts cutting rates too early to fix inflation.......and we get the worst of all worlds which is stagflation. Lets see.

[Gregmal]

Eh true grit and courage? Thats not what Id call continuing to chase stuff that no longer exists at the expense of peoples livelihoods...

 

The dedication is admirable...but theres little to nothing left. The whole thesis basically hangs on crystal balling future events that hinge almost entirely on the idea that people having jobs and getting raises(even though they've always gotten 3% raises..so again, is an extra 2% gonna do it?) will create this massive inflation problem.

 

Neither of those things were the cause of the original inflation. And theres little to prove it will going forward, outside of relying 100% on the notion that..."well there was this one time in the 70s"...and thats it. Even the example earlier about asking small business owners is flawed. They can talk about hiking prices all they want, but we already saw it with Black Friday...people just walk because goods are cheaper elsewhere and there goes that whole theory. 

 

I mean to get this past wave of inflation we had:

 

covid lockdowns

supply chain chaos

wars causing temporary flareups

stimulus checks in the amount of thousands monthly going to everyone

more lockdowns

more stimulus

low rates

china 

 

 

going forward the war is old news. China is being forced to deal with covid, rates higher, stimulus gone, covid a nothing burger....so the thesis is....

 

jobs?

 

[Gregmal]

And “the genie is out of the bottle” is not a real supporting argument for jobs. This isn’t Aladdin. In order to replicate what’s already occurred we need massive future supply chain issues, meteoric rises in energy and commodity prices from existing levels, with significant increases in available liquidity, for everyone, not just a fraction of the workforce….there’s almost no chance this happens solely and just cuz for a year or two people get an extra 2-3% raise. 

[changegonnacome]

5 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

going forward the war is old news. China is being forced to deal with covid, rates higher, stimulus gone, covid a nothing burger....so the thesis is....

 

jobs?

 

In some ways it doesnt matter how we got here (COVID, china, supply chains, war). What matters is where we are & where we are is two full years dominated by persistently higher inflation that informs & permeates the conversation of most get togethers I go too. 

 

The thesis therefore is inflation once it flares up and remains high for a descent period (say like TWO full years like the anniversary we are about to hit in April 2023) has horrible habit of replicating & self-reinforcing as past inflation gets built into future wage agreements. See various wage agreements struck in the last number of months and anecdotally everyone i speak too around their 2023 salary.

 

So whats the problem with pay increases I hear you say? Its not a problem in an economy with slack that can grow its productive capacity. But thats not we have in the USA.

 

The problem is exactly what you and I @Gregmal do agree on fully & absolutely....... that this is a super strong economy with lots of employment opportunity & jobs...too many in fact......but you see this is the problem.........an economy operating at FULL tilt (max productive capacity) with low productivity growth like we have.....cannot give itself nominal pay increases & hope to end up better off........what actually happens is you end up with inflation & societal instability....cause you cant eat nominal pay increases, you only get to eat what you produce......& USA Inc. is producing (domestically) everything it possibly can.....USA Inc. is running three shifts, 365 days a year.....its enticed every lay-about it can off the couch (with disastrous results for incremental marginal productivity).....but its unable to supply anymore incremental goods or services above and beyond what can be delivered by innovation/technological advancements & productivity gains......the issue then is the increase in nominal income/spending (achieved through pay increases) is exceeding domestic productive capacity....the difference between those two numbers shows up as inflation......as I said many pages back.....the inflation story if you havent noticed has morphed from things that were put on international shipping containers & oil tankers to things that aren't....like services/domestic food etc.....this is the inflation problem now.....homegrown and Made in the USA......domestic productive capacity of domestic goods and services is maxed out.....that productive ceiling limit is being met by nominal income/spending increases delivered via wage increases......but this is just paper money....people dont consume paper.....they consume goods and services using paper money.....more paper doesnt create more goods and services.....it simply increases the nominal price of those goods and services.

[changegonnacome]

49 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

occurred we need massive future supply chain issues, meteoric rises in energy and commodity prices from existing levels, with significant increases in available liquidity, for everyone, not just a fraction of the workforce….there’s almost no chance this happens solely and just cuz for a year or two people get an extra 2-3% raise. 

 

Again your focused on what caused inflation to start and using it as the benchmark by which it wont continue.....your completely misdiagnosing the problem......but to get specific to your point about the benign-ness or harmlessness of an economy systematically giving itself unusually large pay increases across all sectors and industries for a year or two (in response to historical inflation flare) .....this is where your completely wrong and I don't think have fully got the point I've explained a couple of times in this thread........you only get to consume what you produce as a nation......nominal pay increases do NOT produce MORE goods and services......and in an economy operating at its full productive capacity which I thnk we both agree on, but correct if I'm wrong?.....those nominal pay increases dont show up as incremental goods and services, those nominal pay increases show up as inflation. (Important Aside & important point - nominal pay increases may allow to consume more Korean flat screen TV's & imports if the currency plays ball at the same time)

 

Put simply tell me that the US domestically will in 2023 produce 10% more goods and services than it did in 2022.......and that nominal spending in 2023 will increase 12% over 2022........and I'll tell you that inflation will be about 2%. Great result. Good result.

 

The problem is the USA will not produce 10% more goods and services next year......its operating at full employment, its has horrible productivity growth, its at full employment or beyond......increases in goods and services next year will only come from productivity gains....which have been lousy lets call them 2%.....but what certainly seems to be happening for next year is the following just based on my own scuttlebut research - blue collar workers are getting 6-8% increases, grey collars are getting 7-10% & white collars are getting 10%+.........lets average it all out at 8%. No big deal, right?

 

Well it is a big deal.....I just told you that the US will produce only 2% more goods and services next year over 2022........and I also just told you that nominal income & its flip-side spending is going to increase by 8%.......sounds like Milton Friedmen's defintion of inflation.....too much money money chasing too few goods and services = inflation. Thats why pay increases are a problem......they arent a problem when those pay increases are being met by equally large increases in the productive capacity of your economy such that your supplying incrementally more goods and service to meet these increases in nominal income/spending. Thats called an economic boom and an economy on the march.....but that isn't whats happening here.....the labor force isn't growing (if anything its shrinking), a large capital cycle of modernizing industries isn't happening such that great productivity gains are being achieved by American manufactures as they upgrade their P&E to modern manufacturing methods....the USA isn't Kazakhstan.....we've had 15 years of ZIRP any easy productivity enhancing gains via P&E investments have been made years ago. There is no incremental leap coming in the aggregate productive capacity of the USA.....its a slow grind upwards.....2% a year......you can give yourself pay increases of 8% all you want.....it dont mean jack.....cause your wife cant serve nominal pay increases for dinner.....she wants meat and potatoes from the store 

 

 

Edited November 30, 2022 by changegonnacome

[Gregmal]

That is way too academic and across the board applied. You’re telling me a factory that produces goods doesn’t have scale? Or if their wages rise 5%, but energy costs, commodity inputs, used vehicle and equipment pricing all come down….

 

Plastic spoons…you’re telling me they can leave the machines on longer to simply produce more without much or any incremental cost?

 

Or an airline. Fuel is the largest cost. That comes down, so do parts and derivatives of commodities. Load factors can also fluctuate and be maximized. But employees get wage increases….

 

Price increases occur to the degree they can be supported. As the country normalizes capitalism sets in and one dumb store owner who thinks hiking his prices is the “duh” solution to everything gets a dose of reality when his neighbor sells the same thing cheaper. Didn’t we just see this to a fairly large degree with many of the commodity companies? Dur doh we re gonna hold the line on pricing…many even outright boasted of colluding on prices since many industries have consolidated..:.and then…there’s a little pricing pressure and it’s back to good old competition because one guy ain’t gonna hold out hoping his competitor turns down a dollar just cuz they all like the idea of higher prices better than they like cold hard cash.

 

It’s wayyyy too one dimension, or academic, and hinges on one toothpick(jobs) holding up an elephant. 

[changegonnacome]

22 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

It’s wayyyy too one dimension, or academic, and hinges on one toothpick(jobs) holding up an elephant. 

 

Maybe I'm too macro.....but your way too micro  But also enjoy the chats.

 

But seriously you do need to think about a nation, in a fiat currency system, and aggregate upwards to think of it like a single conglomerate that produces goods and services.........and then consumes them......with money intermediating all those micro transactions.......my point is a simple one and not academic at all....its about as common sense as it comes......you only get to consume what you produce.....increasing the bits of paper moving around your economy doesn't change what you consume....it just changes the quoted prices of those goods and services.

 

22 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Plastic spoons…you’re telling me they can leave the machines on longer to simply produce more without much or any incremental cost?

 

Or an airline. Fuel is the largest cost. That comes down, so do parts and derivatives of commodities. Load factors can also fluctuate and be maximized. But employees get wage increases….

 

 

This remind of me of Spinal Tap....."your at 10, like where do you go........well you just go to 11......." 

 

I'm saying the machine have been left on as long as they can be.......as Mr.Plastic Spoon baron cant get anymore more workers to staff a third shift to watch the machines. He's operating at 10.

 

Airlines.......well you walked into this one........you see all the disruptions at the airports this summer?......not enough ground crew.......not enough air crew.........not enough pilots.....just not ENOUGH people to deliver the extra flights or even the flights they had scheduled. 

 

I guess what your saying is that US business just needs to buy amps that go up to 11.....which is one more than 10  

 

 

Edited November 30, 2022 by changegonnacome

[changegonnacome]

Enough Spinal Tap - how about Prince....Dalio & Bob Prince that is:

 

https://www.bridgewater.com/research-and-insights/how-conditions-today-compare-to-past-equity-market-bottoms

 

Cliff notes....is bottom here? - very little chance it is

[Viking]

Well 70 million Americans will be getting an 8.7% increase. Starting in Jan 2023. Nice to see that inflation thing is in the rear view mirror. 
—————

“With the payment increase in 2023, Forbes said 8.7% more will equate to an average added monthly benefit of $144 for individuals and $240 extra for couples filing jointly.”
- https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/social-security-cola-2023-benefits-160922091.html

—————

Where will the government be getting the money from to fund the increase? Someone will be paying higher taxes next year. The tax payers will then need higher income (consumer) or higher prices (businesses) to pay the higher taxes. That will lead to higher inflation and so the COLA for 2024 will be elevated again… and we get to do it all over again. Kind of like a wage and price spiral…. But i thought this inflation thing was transitory? (Some people also believe in Santa Clause, the Easter Bunny and the Tooth Fairy…).
—————

Latest COLA
The latest COLA is 8.7 percent for Social Security benefits and SSI payments. Social Security benefits will increase by 8.7 percent beginning with the December 2022 benefits, which are payable in January 2023. Federal SSI payment levels will also increase by 8.7 percent effective for payments made for January 2023. Because the normal SSI payment date is the first of the month and January 1 is a holiday, the SSI payments for January are always made at the end of the previous December.

Edited November 30, 2022 by Viking

[changegonnacome]

4 hours ago, Viking said:

Well 70 million Americans will be getting an 8.7% increase. Starting in Jan 2023. Nice to see that inflation thing is in the rear view mirror. 

 

Right.......and this is not an issue in an economy growing domestic goods and services output by 8.7% per year or even 6.7%.....8.7%-6.7% = 2% inflation....fine thats what we want.............the issue is that this an economy with NO workers on the sidelines ready to be hired off the couch, no obvious productivity enhancing P&E investments that haven't already been made in the last decade...........increases in domestic goods and services output can only come from grinding out modest productivity gains lets call optimistically 2% a year.........but your dumping ~8% nominal pay increases into this economy.......as I've said nominal pay increases by themselves do NOT produce MORE domestic goods and services, they simply increase the quoted price of those domestic goods and services i.e. inflation.

[Gregmal]

So labor report even into a strong holiday season…slowing. So idk. Dogs need cars to chase. There’s always a flavor of the year story. Last year hardly anyone was talking about inflation. I remember even posting Kuppys take on it and everyone pretty much sided with the Fed on transitory. Now the Fed went to full entrenched and not unsurprising, everyone follows. This time last year folks were still preoccupied with COVID. Now it’s the same things, remove COVID, add INFLATION. There’s a reason markets are forward looking.

 

Yea @changegonnacomeyou do get some credit. You and I and @musclemanwere some of the few trying to educate people on The Top Is Coming thread; mainly about how the top already came…but folks still wanted to focus on COVID and then buy the dip on FANG in Q1/2….but we diverged there and it’s gonna be fun to watch it play out. 
 

The pushback and sometimes circular arguments if nothing else keep the pencils sharp. 

[SharperDingaan]

Keep in mind that unions are just the collective worker reaction to sh1te management and governance; both of which have been truly sh1te for a very long time. The reality is that a business/government either pays up, or the labor walks. Attitudes, ideology, etc. mean squat.

 

Ontario recently had its Bill 124 struck down as a violation of charter rights; the bill capped public sector wage increases at 1%/yr for 3 years, and materially contributed to staffing shortages in Ontario public health care. Burnt out staff left, and rational replacements worked everywhere else, BUT public health care - for higher pay. Ontario has announced that it is going to appeal the ruling; amidst threats to alternatively use Canada's constitutional 'non-withstanding' clause if it doesn't get its way. Not just sh1te governance, but also blackmail and incompetence! https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-bill-124-ontario-public-sector-wage-increase/

 

Like it or not, all around Canada there will be material wage increases - and all else equal, they will be inflationary. Yet almost everywhere you look there are 'help wanted' signs everywhere, and business owners complaining they can't get the staff. Given that more than 50% of floating rate mortgages have hit their trigger rates, and evidence that the economy is now sputtering, the obvious monetary solution is to simply sit tight ... and let existing stimulus run out. Simply let supply/demand do its thing, and CPI sink to target level. NOT WHAT THE MARKET WANTS TO HEAR.

 

By definition, value investors are anti-market (buy when there is blood on the streets).

Let the good times roll ! 

 

SD

[Dinar]

@Viking, actually that is not correct.  You are assuming that Social Security = 100% of those people's incomes.  That is just not right.  Once you take into account pensions, may often are not indexed to inflation - my father's isn't for instance, portfolio income, et cetera, the increase is not 8.7%.

 

 

[Gregmal]

There are a lot of false and first level assumptions made to support some fo these notions. Where was everyone last year when it was obvious? Now all signs point south but people love a good story. 

[Gregmal]

 

 

[changegonnacome]

53 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

The pushback and sometimes circular arguments if nothing else keep the pencils sharp. 

 

Yeah i appreciate your pushback..always......being bullish is the correct posture like 80% of the times....which means probabilistically one should just be bullish by default always..........& I want to get aggressive.....i want to be greedy.....but we aint done with this yet......as Bridgewater report i linked too points out.....equity markets in an inflation/raising rates cycle dont really bottom until at least unemployment starts to crack and we just haven't really had anything close to a crack.....which makes sense rates act with a lag....9-12 months....we are only now starting to feel the raising rates earlier this year about now....H1 2023 is gonna be a doozy.......folks will be running for the exits then.....I'll be rushing past them

[Viking]

2 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Kuppy’s most recent post? Oil could go to $300 in the next couple of months. Good thing higher oil prices don’t impact inflation at all…

 

Those who see much lower inflation in the coming months had better hope Kuppy didn’t nail it this time.

—————

I like oil/gas as an investment. I think we could see $150 oil… likely when the next expansion gets started (12-18 months out). $300 oil over the next few months? I am not so sure. 

—————

- https://adventuresincapitalism.com/2022/11/04/the-fed-is-fuct-part-5/

“I know that I touched upon this in Part 2 of this “Fed is Fuct” series, but I just cannot let go of this topic. It is simply too important of a question—in fact, it seems to be the only question in my mind as we find an event-path for “Project Zimbabwe” to re-accelerate.

 

Let’s try a thought experiment. Imagine that OPEC pulled back on their production and sent oil to $300. Given how tight the oil market currently is, it wouldn’t even be that hard for them to achieve this. Given how annoyed they are with Biden and Powell, it’s easy to see how they’d want to do this and prove a point. Meanwhile, the rapid spike in oil prices would dramatically increase OPEC’s revenue, even with fewer barrels sold—making you wonder why they haven’t already done this.

 

At $300 oil, the US economy would collapse. Sure, inflation prints would go parabolic, but with the rest of the economy in freefall, the Fed would be forced to stop chasing the CPI higher. In fact, I’d wager a healthy sum that in such a scenario, the Fed would dramatically reduce interest rates and flood the market with liquidity. The Fed would effectively ignore their inflation mandate in order to save the global economy from OPEC’s oil price spike—much like when they were fighting germs during March of 2020. In this scenario, the Fed would be responding to an exogenous event that threatened to take down the economy.

 

Now, what if oil didn’t go to $300 due to OPEC?? What if oil went there because our President has joined an end-of-days economic suicide cult, with a bizarre carbon obsession?? The oil price spike would be the same, yet the cause would be different. In this self-inflicted scenario, would the Fed chase oil higher and continue raising interest rates to fight inflation?? Or would the Fed bail out the economy?? Every investor needs to answer this question and answer it correctly as the range of outcomes is too extreme if you get it wrong. If the causes of the oil spikes are different, will the responses be different??

 

I think we’re about to play out this experiment in real time over the next few months as the SPR releases end, right as China re-opens. The investment choices in front of you are quite different in terms of how you answer this key question. Sure, you’re going to ride oil into the supernova, but when you switch investment horses, which one do you choose??

 

What will JPOW do when oil hits $300??

 

If you aren’t fixating on this conundrum, you’re going to be paralyzed when it happens.”

Edited November 30, 2022 by Viking

[TwoCitiesCapital]

PMIs just came in massively negative in the US (47 nationwide). Chicago area PMIs came in @ 37 onon expectations of 47! 

 

Home prices have been in MoM decline for 3 months now and has largely been a nationwide trend. 

 

Earnings are going to get rocked - especially if the Fed maintains rates where they're at until inflation actually prints below 2% because they're watch trailing indicators as leading indicators are rapidly deteriorating. 

 

Buy bonds.

[Gregmal]

37 minutes ago, Viking said:

Kuppy’s most recent post? Oil could go to $300 in the next couple of months. Good thing higher oil prices don’t impact inflation at all…

 

Those who see much lower inflation in the coming months had better hope Kuppy didn’t nail it this time.

—————

I like oil/gas as an investment. I think we could see $150 oil… likely when the next expansion gets started (12-18 months out). $300 oil over the next few months? I am not so sure. 

—————

- https://adventuresincapitalism.com/2022/11/04/the-fed-is-fuct-part-5/

“I know that I touched upon this in Part 2 of this “Fed is Fuct” series, but I just cannot let go of this topic. It is simply too important of a question—in fact, it seems to be the only question in my mind as we find an event-path for “Project Zimbabwe” to re-accelerate.

 

Let’s try a thought experiment. Imagine that OPEC pulled back on their production and sent oil to $300. Given how tight the oil market currently is, it wouldn’t even be that hard for them to achieve this. Given how annoyed they are with Biden and Powell, it’s easy to see how they’d want to do this and prove a point. Meanwhile, the rapid spike in oil prices would dramatically increase OPEC’s revenue, even with fewer barrels sold—making you wonder why they haven’t already done this.

 

At $300 oil, the US economy would collapse. Sure, inflation prints would go parabolic, but with the rest of the economy in freefall, the Fed would be forced to stop chasing the CPI higher. In fact, I’d wager a healthy sum that in such a scenario, the Fed would dramatically reduce interest rates and flood the market with liquidity. The Fed would effectively ignore their inflation mandate in order to save the global economy from OPEC’s oil price spike—much like when they were fighting germs during March of 2020. In this scenario, the Fed would be responding to an exogenous event that threatened to take down the economy.

 

Now, what if oil didn’t go to $300 due to OPEC?? What if oil went there because our President has joined an end-of-days economic suicide cult, with a bizarre carbon obsession?? The oil price spike would be the same, yet the cause would be different. In this self-inflicted scenario, would the Fed chase oil higher and continue raising interest rates to fight inflation?? Or would the Fed bail out the economy?? Every investor needs to answer this question and answer it correctly as the range of outcomes is too extreme if you get it wrong. If the causes of the oil spikes are different, will the responses be different??

 

I think we’re about to play out this experiment in real time over the next few months as the SPR releases end, right as China re-opens. The investment choices in front of you are quite different in terms of how you answer this key question. Sure, you’re going to ride oil into the supernova, but when you switch investment horses, which one do you choose??

 

What will JPOW do when oil hits $300??

 

If you aren’t fixating on this conundrum, you’re going to be paralyzed when it happens.”

Dont know if I'd concur about $300, but the oil trade has and should continue to be a good one. That hasn't changed since two summers ago. I dont think it'll have much impact on forward inflation. We had massive oil spikes in 08 and 2013 or so and little inflation. Folks are just so conditioned bc of the PTSD of the past year that they've concluded anything going up ====== inflation. Thats just not true. 

[Gregmal]

Headlines everywhere read: INVESTORS AWAIT POWELL SPEECH

 

Who are these investors? The ones who chased theirs tails being covid experts for two years and now do the same doubling as inflation experts. Of course theyre always on the same crowded side of the trades. Selling when they should be buying and buying....eh, scratch buying, some of these people literally never buy....but you get the point. 

 

The rest just enjoy the amusement of people who's investment strategy resembles a drunk rushing to the ATM at 2am in Vegas. 

[Gregmal]

BREAKING: HE SAID WHAT HE SAID HE WAS GOING TO SAY

 

Hope everyone analyzes this closely for clues to the next move....

[changegonnacome]

31 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Hope everyone analyzes this closely for clues to the next move....

 

He's wearing his light blue tie today......everybody knows what that means.......SPY 3000 is now a cert 

[Gregmal]

Underneath it all in fine print?

 

 

 

*sponsored by Interactive Brokers

 

 

Jokes aside it really is crazy when you dig a little how much of this stuff does intersect. Especially the Fed and Treasury guys and their "speeches". Most people probably do not realize they get paid for them...most often by...financial firms!

[Spooky]

Time to close this thread? Lol