Luca Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 20 minutes ago, John Hjorth said: You guys posting here lately appear to be derailed or confused -, directionally, thematically and / or geographically. - This topic is about China, investment related. Point taken. Russia is a good ally to China and basically fully dependent on them now, which is good for China and Chinese investments. More natural resources for cheap and independent from the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cod Liver Oil Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 (edited) @John Hjorth you seem like a pretty chill Dane. Do you own any Chinese companies or are you not entertained? I am not interested in the political stuff, only the returns. Edited April 8 by Cod Liver Oil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luca Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 (edited) Edited April 8 by Luca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 12 minutes ago, Luca said: Dont worry, rather than acknowledge and address the issue, people will just make derogatory comments about Musk and Bezos being China apologists! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Hjorth Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 3 hours ago, Luca said: Point taken. Russia is a good ally to China and basically fully dependent on them now, which is good for China and Chinese investments. More natural resources for cheap and independent from the west. 3 hours ago, Cod Liver Oil said: @John Hjorth you seem like a pretty chill Dane. Do you own any Chinese companies or are you not entertained? I am not interested in the political stuff, only the returns. Thank you for the kind way to respond on my words, @Luca & @Cod Liver Oil, I may here on CoBF appear sober or chill most days I post, but what's going on inside my head can't be really be described by representing my mental state most days as I'm sober or chill most of the time. Simply because I'm not, while I'm forcing myself to stay about fully invested all time long term. However I think I'm gradually getting better at it. It's about a large position in that Danish pharma every media is writing about, here now at above 20 per cent of total portfolio, which for me personally not is easy to sit on. So I already really have my mouth, hands and mind full with risk, that I try to relate to on a continuing basis. Also, It has become clear to me, that I likely possess a personal propensity to underestimate political risk related to foreign investments, based on my experiences in 2020 with Russian stock investments [Gazprom, Lukoil & Sberbank], however losses not cribling, but not forgotten. - And as always I may change my mind any day. ... - - - o 0 o - - - So, good luck with China! [sincerely meant!] 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luca Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 2 minutes ago, John Hjorth said: Thank you for the kind way to respond on my words, @Luca & @Cod Liver Oil, I may here on CoBF appear sober or chill most days I post, but what's going on inside my head can't be really be described by representing my mental state most days as I'm sober or chill most of the time. Simply because I'm not, while I'm forcing myself to stay about fully invested all time long term. However I think I'm gradually getting better at it. It's about a large position in that Danish pharma every media is writing about, here now at above 20 per cent of total portfolio, which for me personally not is easy to sit on. So I already really have my mouth, hands and mind full with risk, that I try to relate to on a continuing basis. Also, It has become clear to me, that I likely possess a personal propensity to underestimate political risk related to foreign investments, based on my experiences in 2020 with Russian stock investments [Gazprom, Lukoil & Sberbank], however losses not cribling, but not forgotten. - And as always I may change my mind any day. ... - - - o 0 o - - - So, good luck with China! [sincerely meant!] Thank you for the kind words John and all the best to you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luca Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 So funny seeing Yellen ranting about "excess capacity" https://www.reuters.com/world/yellen-meets-with-chinas-central-bank-chief-presses-case-excess-capacity-2024-04-08/ I thought we were in a "free market"? Why don't they just remove the tariffs and US consumers buy it all....;-)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luca Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 (edited) "you cant produce more because consumers are not allowed good prices and business cant have too much competition because the wealthy will loose money of which they have too little and consumers have to much goods and excess wealth" Edited April 9 by Luca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hillfronter83 Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 how often do we see billion$ market cap wiped out in 10 minutes? https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/1252.HK?.tsrc=fin-srch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backtothebeach Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 20 minutes ago, hillfronter83 said: how often do we see billion$ market cap wiped out in 10 minutes? https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/1252.HK?.tsrc=fin-srch What happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hillfronter83 Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 19 minutes ago, backtothebeach said: What happened? No idea. Can't find any news or disclosure. Someone dumped 280m shares (about 1000 times average daily volume or 10% of shares outstanding) in about 10 minutes yesterday before closing bell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intelligent_Investor Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 3 hours ago, hillfronter83 said: how often do we see billion$ market cap wiped out in 10 minutes? https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/1252.HK?.tsrc=fin-srch I'd assume quite frequently...big tech can move tens of billions in market cap in a single tick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
formthirteen Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 How can I invest in China? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luca Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 31 minutes ago, formthirteen said: How can I invest in China? https://letmegooglethat.com/?q=How+to+invest+into+chinese+stocks%3F+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malmqky Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 (edited) 3 hours ago, formthirteen said: How can I invest in China? Though the NYSE if listed there, through Hong Kong, or OTC. If you mean directly and not via ADR…I don’t think you can. Edited April 9 by Malmqky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 7 hours ago, hillfronter83 said: No idea. Can't find any news or disclosure. Someone dumped 280m shares (about 1000 times average daily volume or 10% of shares outstanding) in about 10 minutes yesterday before closing bell. The infamous HK dump. This happened a few time with Hk stonks which often have issues that the public later learns about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
formthirteen Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 7 hours ago, Malmqky said: I don’t think you can. Thanks. That was the answer I was looking for. I don't think you can invest in China. My data seems to verify this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luca Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 3 hours ago, formthirteen said: Thanks. That was the answer I was looking for. I don't think you can invest in China. My data seems to verify this: So let me get this straight. As a Value Investor, you are looking at the fundamentals (which are good and growing) but then see that the share price has not grown with the fundamentals (dislocation of valuation) and then proceed to not buy it because there can not be dislocation in order for you to buy? In fact, quite the opposite of what a value investor would do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luca Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 Just look at Alibaba/Tencent. Huge buyback programs and 3x the buyback size of MAG 7 while shareprice flat for 10 years. I think its pretty obvious which stock will perform better from here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-cement-maker-halts-trading-041141586.html Domino effect of a real estate downturn. How many other Chinese companies are vulnerable? Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweet Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 1 hour ago, Luca said: Just look at Alibaba/Tencent. Huge buyback programs and 3x the buyback size of MAG 7 while shareprice flat for 10 years. I think its pretty obvious which stock will perform better from here... I don’t think it’s obvious. An investment in China is to invest alongside the CCP and whatever way the political wind is blowing. Although it’s unlikely you also cannot rule out measures like being unable to get your money out of China. Not to mention the huge amounts of innovation from the top US tech companies that nobody can compare to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luca Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 (edited) 44 minutes ago, Sweet said: I don’t think it’s obvious. An investment in China is to invest alongside the CCP and whatever way the political wind is blowing. An investment in China is an investment alongside the people of China and their Government. An investment in the US is an investment alongside the people of the US and their Government. Both are the same thing so whats important is to understand how do the people and the government see your business? If you study CCP releases, Xis speeches, what public officials say, all lights are on green. Nobody wants to take your business away, nobody wants communism and a Stalinist economy, China will remain a partly private partly public economy just like other economies in the west. What is different is that china can regulate the bad parts in their markets and will do so, same should be true for the US but I don't know whats going on inside congress and their plans against mag 7. Alibaba will remain a private business for the coming decades and nothing will change in that regard with a 98% probability. 44 minutes ago, Sweet said: Although it’s unlikely you also cannot rule out measures like being unable to get your money out of China. Not to mention the huge amounts of innovation from the top US tech companies that nobody can compare to. 30% of the worlds manufacturing and industry is in China, ALL incentives are there to cooperate with China and not increase confrontations. If there is war, its over and I will probably be sent to fight in WW3 too so my portfolio will become irrelevant. If you think its thinkable that the same happens with China what happened with Russia then you are wrong, those are two completely different economies, the effect of China cut off would be 20x worse and lead to a hard depression for 5-10 years and global growth will probably stagnate for way way longer, I can afford to lose 25% of my PF in that case. Innovation in China is not to be underestimated, we already see how far they are and Tencent/Alibaba can easily compete with US tech. Edited April 10 by Luca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luca Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 If you think the odds of a china cut off are so high @Sweet, then you need to reposition your portfolio way different than just buying "good companies at reasonable prices", because those will get fucked when China leaves. So if you are so short China and long war, then you cant be long QARP stocks at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luca Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 Owning military stocks is the best play here probably if you think it will escalate in the next 5 years. With that you will outperform everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweet Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 (edited) 1 hour ago, Luca said: An investment in China is an investment alongside the people of China and their Government. An investment in the US is an investment alongside the people of the US and their Government. Both are the same thing so whats important is to understand how do the people and the government see your business? That’s a generalisation, there are differences in the two systems and those matter in practice. The US has separation of powers and a restraining constitution. The US President doesn’t have the power of Xi, can be blocked by courts or Congress, and the balance of power in both houses of Congress can be changed every two years through elections. You note that “china can regulate the bad parts in their markets and will do so”. Yes they are so effective at that because power is concentrated but that cuts both ways. Say a Chinese president decides he doesn’t like a particular company, goes on another anti-corruption drive, sours in capitalism, or prohibits capital from leaving the country. What is there to restrain him? Investing in China comes with that risk and that risk is why I don’t invest in China. Edited April 10 by Sweet Comment vanished Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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