China

[formthirteen]

https://archive.is/3yQcM

 

Quote

Yellen Warns China's Industry Ramp-Up Is Distorting World Economy

Treasury secretary calls out China for excess capacity buildup
China overcapacity ‘distorts global prices and production’

 

https://archive.is/ieSMZ

 

Quote

While many western manufacturers including Tesla, BMW and Renault make electric cars in China that they import to Europe, Chinese-branded EVs alone are set to account for 11 per cent of the EU’s electric car market this year, rising to 20 per cent by 2027. Chinese brands such as BYD have already risen from 0.4 per cent of the European EV market in 2019 to 8 per cent of sales last year.
The findings come as Brussels finalises a probe into whether local subsidies have helped electric cars made in China undercut European-made models — an investigation widely expected to lead to an increase in tariffs on EVs coming in from China.

 

 

[Hektor]

https://www.wsj.com/world/china/chinas-recovery-picks-up-as-stimulus-measures-sink-in-8e0d4678

 

Quote

China’s Recovery Picks Up as Stimulus Measures Sink In. Signs of improvement in manufacturing sector follow other evidence of ‘green shoots’.

 

China’s sprawling manufacturing sector returned to expansion in March after five months of decline, adding to signs of a stabilizing economy as a recent string of stimulus measures starts to kick in.

 

An official gauge of China’s factory activity edged up to 50.8 from February’s 49.1, the country’s National Bureau of Statistics said Sunday, beating a forecast of 50 by economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. The 50 level separates expansion from contraction.

 

Sunday’s upbeat reading comes after a bundle of indicators for the January-February period showing the world’s second-largest economy started off the year on a solid footing, led by the manufacturing sector, with exports topping expectations and industrial profits returning to growth.

 

[Hektor]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-31/china-s-industrial-upswing-is-latest-sign-of-economic-recovery

 

Quote

China Industrial Upswing Is Latest Sign of Economic Recovery. Better-than-expected economic data points to signs of momentum. Property market and deflationary pressure remain challenges.

 

China’s factory activity beat expectations in March, boosting optimism about the country’s ability to achieve its ambitious growth goal of around 5% this year. The Caixin manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose to 51.1 on Monday — above the 50 mark that indicates expansion for a fifth month, the longest streak in more than two years.

Government data published on Sunday showed manufacturing PMI in March snapped a five-month contraction to rise to the highest in a year. Both numbers beat market expectations, adding to evidence that the country’s industrial sector is building momentum for an economic recovery.

 

[Hektor]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-01/iron-ore-sinks-to-10-month-low-on-gloom-over-china-construction

 

Iron Ore Sinks to 10-Month Low on Gloom Over China Construction

 

‘A return to basics and fundamentals,’ says Navigate’s Widnell

Weak demand and rising supply send prices below $100 a ton

 

Iron ore dropped to the lowest level in 10 months as the steelmaking material faced a double whammy of limp Chinese construction activity and a renewed surge in supply. Futures in Singapore slumped through $100 a ton early Monday, tumbling almost 4%. China’s years-long property crisis is still wreaking havoc on demand, while rising availability is compounding the pressure on prices. “The move in iron ore this morning represents a return to basics and fundamentals,” Atilla Widnell, managing director at Navigate Commodities Pte, said by email. A rebound in shipments of the raw material from Australia is likely to make port-side inventories in China even more bloated, he said.

[Hektor]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-01/investors-are-unwinding-the-buy-india-sell-china-stocks-trade

 

Investors Are Unwinding the ‘Buy India, Sell China’ Stocks Trade. Nascent recovery shows improving risk-reward of Chinese stocks.

 

The nascent swing highlights how funds are starting to buy into the narrative that China’s policy support will be enough to revive growth.

 

More than 90% of emerging market funds are adding back their positions in mainland Chinese shares, which were underweight, while also dialing back exposure to India, according to HSBC Holdings Plc. Global investors were net buyers of onshore shares via a link with Hong Kong for a second straight month in March, a feat last seen in June and July. 

[james22]

 

[formthirteen]

Quote

President Joe Biden raised concerns with Xi Jinping during their call this week about China’s support for the Russian defense industrial base, including machine tools, optics, nitrocellulose, microelectronics, and turbojet engines, White House National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson said.

https://archive.is/PE0qx#selection-1668.0-1677.305

 

[formthirteen]

 

https://twitter.com/zhao_dashuai/status/1776973331851608113

 

[Gregmal]

14 hours ago, formthirteen said:

 

https://archive.is/PE0qx#selection-1668.0-1677.305

 

On the other side of the same coin, would love to see the headline “Xi raises concerns to Biden over continued support of Ukraine”….more us good, them bad, yay tribalism. 

[Luca]

53 minutes ago, formthirteen said:

 

https://twitter.com/zhao_dashuai/status/1776973331851608113

 

 

This picture pretty well describes the industrial stagnation/deindustrialization within the US. 

 

How will the US be ever able to compete in manufacturing again with their degree of financialization? Considering also that so much of the infrastructure is privatized, concentrated, and inefficient. Rents too high for labor having low wages, to compete internationally, infrastructure investment for industry is not existent, energy transition depends on foreign supply chains of the Chinese enemy. 

 

It will turn out to be the biggest mistake, short term profit thinking, outsourcing labor to asia to save money and now the industry is gone, asia can produce themselves and the US with very concentrated wealth but little fundamentals left. 

Edited April 7 by Luca

[Luca]

Interesting comments by Hayden Capital: 

 

Edited April 7 by Luca

[Luca]

[Luca]

[Luca]

Russia has to be a gas station for the West with weak subservient leadership, China has to provide the exploited labor pool but can not develop beyond that because they will then take away market share and profits from US firms, leadership ideally also weak and subservient. Europe is already deindustrializing and lost Russia, great. 

 

 

The best world is a world, where 90% of global profits are funneled to US shareholders, and the SP 500 is the only remaining stock market index with a few mega caps and trillionaires that completely own Congress and the government. 

Edited April 7 by Luca

[Luca]

On 3/25/2024 at 8:35 PM, Gregmal said:

https://www.cato.org/commentary/americas-ukraine-hypocrisy

"This strategy required European trade sanctions against Russia, and similar moves to block trade with China in order to prevent Europe from being swept into the emerging China-centered mutual prosperity sphere. To prepare for its U.S.-China war, U.S. strategists sought to block China’s ability to receive Russian military support. The plan was to drain Russia’s military power by arming Ukraine to draw Russia into a bloody fight that might bring about a regime change. The unrealistic hope was that voters would resent war, just as they had resented the war in Afghanistan that had helped end the Soviet Union. In this case they might replace Putin with oligarchic leaders willing to pursue neoliberal pro-U.S. policies akin to those of the Yeltsin regime. The effect has been just the opposite. Russian voters have done what any population under attack would do: They have rallied around Putin. And the Western sanctions have obliged Russia and China to become more self-sufficient. This U.S. plan for an extended global New Cold War had a problem. The German economy was enjoying prosperity by exporting industrial products to Russia and investing in post-Soviet markets, while importing Russian gas and other raw materials at relatively low international prices. It is axiomatic that under normal conditions international diplomacy follows national self-interest. The problem for U.S. Cold Warriors was how to persuade Germany’s leaders to make an uneconomic choice to abandon its profitable commerce with Russia. The solution was to foment the war with Russia in Ukraine and Russia and incite Russophobia to justify imposing a vast array of sanctions blocking European commerce with Russia."

[Sweet]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

On the other side of the same coin, would love to see the headline “Xi raises concerns to Biden over continued support of Ukraine”….more us good, them bad, yay tribalism. 

Do you not think there is a good vs bad in the Russia ukraine war?

[Gregmal]

1 hour ago, Sweet said:

Do you not think there is a good vs bad in the Russia ukraine war?

Wars are complicated and we have this tabloid tendency through the propaganda arms to create this soccer match style “who do you want to see win” backdrop to them in order to simplify these things and get people to fall in line.

 

Generally I’d prefer no wars. And I also prefer the US stop meddling in all these places and instigating more war.  See what’s currently happening in Taiwan. 

[Sweet]

7 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Wars are complicated and we have this tabloid tendency through the propaganda arms to create this soccer match style “who do you want to see win” backdrop to them in order to simplify these things and get people to fall in line.

 

Generally I’d prefer no wars. And I also prefer the US stop meddling in all these places and instigating more war.  See what’s currently happening in Taiwan. 

We still compete globally in a battle of ideas.  The Ukrainian people want closer alignment with Europe and its parliament voted for it.  The then pro-Russian Ukrainian President vetoed the bill and tried to force closer ties with Russia on Ukraine and he was turfed out in 2014.  Putin’s Russia doesn’t want that for Ukraine.
 

From your postings elsewhere I’d guess that you and I have very similar political views - except on this.  And I don’t understand why many others who broadly share my political views are then agnostic about who wins in Ukraine.  

 

Ukraine: a friendly country, wants to ally with us, wants to be more like us, shares our values and has looked for our leadership.

 

Putins Russia: dictator which is openly hostile to us, that seeks to undermine our countries in many ways, its values are whatever Putin wants.

 

How can we be agnostic about the side?

 

 

[Gregmal]

I’ve never seen a war or pseudo war that wasn’t taken advantage of by government or used to gain political standing at the expense of the average citizen. I was close enough to the direct effects and visuals of 9-11 to see the impacts of these pissing matches. Of course 9-11 wasn’t just “oh well gee these terrorists showed up out of nowhere and did this for no reason”…the reasons(one’s in which both us and the terrorists wholly believed to be on the “right side” of) ultimately stemmed from actions we took for years and even decades prior. You then look at what transpired over the next 2 decades! We re seeing it in Gaza right now. October 7 wasn’t the “starting point”…but now it’s like ok where does this end? 
 

This Russia Ukraine thing started years before the actual “invasion”. Of course, we were at the center of the provocation. You see the complete one sided nature of the reporting. Zelenskyy has turned into a rabid little dictator(assuming he wasn’t already one) and at the end of the day it’s the people of Russia and the people of Ukraine whom are getting fucked. They could have a settlement in a week if they wanted one, but that’s not being allowed to happen. Heck, look at what you see, and then imagine what you don’t see, in terms of the political strategy around OUR politicians when it comes to pushing for Ukraine and Israel aid!! There’s nothing humanitarian about it. Just “what benefits me” from government officials at the higher levels. 
 

So yea idk I differ from a lot of people I know on the subject but I really just dont support war and don’t support enabling one, let alone constantly being the ones who provoke, encourage and fund them. Our country certain does that.

Edited April 8 by Gregmal

[Xerxes]

3 hours ago, Gregmal said:

They could have a settlement in a week if they wanted one, but that’s not being allowed to happen. 

Boris Johnson disagrees with you. Feb 2022 was a once in a life time opportunity to lay low a historical geopolitical foe. Safely from one’ ivory tower across the English Channel at that. 
 

 

Boris Johnson and the establishment bought the dip, during weeks that decades happened. 

[Luca]

11 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

Boris Johnson disagrees with you. Feb 2022 was a once in a life time opportunity to lay low a historical geopolitical foe. Safely from one’ ivory tower across the English Channel at that. 
 

 

Boris Johnson and the establishment bought the dip, during weeks that decades happened. 

 

Putin regularly pushes that they want to open communications for settlements, China also open to be a mediator but the west and Zelensky is not willing to negotiate anything, not even exclusion of nato membership which is probably key for russia.

 

So ukraine has to sacrifice all of its men/ and now also women, until no one is left, Ukraine totally capitulates and russia is quite weakened and pushed into chinas sphere of influence. 

[Luca]

Will be very interesting what will happen with trump as a president, probably more real talk and not as much double language as now. Id also guess that the US withdraws some of its arms globally which is a net positive. Thats also why trump is hated by the establishment. 

[Sweet]

4 hours ago, Gregmal said:

I’ve never seen a war or pseudo war that wasn’t taken advantage of by government or used to gain political standing at the expense of the average citizen. I was close enough to the direct effects and visuals of 9-11 to see the impacts of these pissing matches. Of course 9-11 wasn’t just “oh well gee these terrorists showed up out of nowhere and did this for no reason”…the reasons(one’s in which both us and the terrorists wholly believed to be on the “right side” of) ultimately stemmed from actions we took for years and even decades prior. You then look at what transpired over the next 2 decades! We re seeing it in Gaza right now. October 7 wasn’t the “starting point”…but now it’s like ok where does this end? 
 

This Russia Ukraine thing started years before the actual “invasion”. Of course, we were at the center of the provocation. You see the complete one sided nature of the reporting. Zelenskyy has turned into a rabid little dictator(assuming he wasn’t already one) and at the end of the day it’s the people of Russia and the people of Ukraine whom are getting fucked. They could have a settlement in a week if they wanted one, but that’s not being allowed to happen. Heck, look at what you see, and then imagine what you don’t see, in terms of the political strategy around OUR politicians when it comes to pushing for Ukraine and Israel aid!! There’s nothing humanitarian about it. Just “what benefits me” from government officials at the higher levels. 
 

So yea idk I differ from a lot of people I know on the subject but I really just dont support war and don’t support enabling one, let alone constantly being the ones who provoke, encourage and fund them. Our country certain does that.

 

When you say we were at the centre of provocation Greg what do you mean?

 

That the West was happy to embrace Ukraine if that was its wish to align closer with us?  That’s not a provocation in my view.

 

You mentioned previously that McCain interfered in Ukraine, so far as I can tell the West supported the Ukrainian people and the parliament who wanted closer ties with Europe.  Putin seen it as a provocation for war, but is it?  At what point are we just regurgitating Putin’s views?

 

A settlement in a week would be Ukraine doing what Russia says.  Claims that Putin was ready for a peace with Ukraine and allow it to be free and independent are not true.  He wanted control one way or another.

 

And in any case how could you trust Putin when he just breaks agreements as he sees fit.

 

I’m all for supporting no war too.  In practise though Putin believes in war if it furthers his political goals, like many dictators before him.  The West for the most part does not believe in going to war because your neighbour takes a different political direction.

 

It was Putin that brought war to Ukraine, not the West, and there is no doubt about that either.

 

Edited April 8 by Sweet

[Xerxes]

14 minutes ago, Luca said:

 

Putin regularly pushes that they want to open communications for settlements, China also open to be a mediator but the west and Zelensky is not willing to negotiate anything, not even exclusion of nato membership which is probably key for russia.

 

So ukraine has to sacrifice all of its men/ and now also women, until no one is left, Ukraine totally capitulates and russia is quite weakened and pushed into chinas sphere of influence. 

to be clear, I have more faith in a liar and a asshole like Dick Cheney, than I do of Putin. 

[John Hjorth]

You guys posting here lately appear to be derailed or confused -, directionally, thematically and / or geographically.

 

- This topic is about China, investment related.