Russia-Ukrainian War

[John Hjorth]

Today, I've gone back, reading this topic meticulously, including provided links in posts, of all posts after tuesday this week.

 

I have to say It's great to have other CoBF members taking the time and energy beating the crap out of my personal cognitive biases, thank you. All I can say further is I hope this helps. 

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Here, it's hot, and the sun is shining from a clear blue sky! Stay cool! 

Edited June 18, 2023 by John Hjorth

[cubsfan]

I don’t know, but I have such a simple view of this situation.

 

Do you want a world where everyone has nukes? Or do you want a world where a bulk of Western favoring democracies/allies can band together under some type of umbrella protection to protect themselves against expansionist/aggressors nations?

 

Whether you call it NATO or a far East coalition against China/North Korea- the point is to have some level of strength and true WILLINGNESS to stop unchecked aggression in its tracks. You may think that is warmongering lead by the United States. I disagree. What’s your alternative is what I’d ask you? What chance do we really have for some level of world peace without such a policy???

 

And I respect the argument that this can’t apply to everyone and is unfair. You have those awful conflicts in places like Rawanda and Yugoslavia.

It seems tremendously unfair.

 

As an American, I hate the idea that so much of our GDP goes to Europe and Asia for protection. But what alternative do we really have? Become isolationists again, like we did with Japan pre-WWII? Become appeasers again like Britain did with Germany? 

We all know how that ended..

 

There’s a reason the first George Bush took the hammer to Sadaam when he invaded Kuwait. You can say it was about oil or whatever. It was about stopping aggression in its tracks and protecting the neighbors in the area. It’s about stopping something that may lead to something much, much larger. Take the pain now, before it escalates. That’s exactly where we are now with Ukraine…well into the escalation of something that well MIGHT have had been stopped much earlier. The leaders that pass off the problem look like heroes because they kept the peace….temporarily…until you have a wider conflict…

 

That’s the kind of message that tells your allies or coalition members you mean business. For US citizens, it’s sucks to be in that position since it saps the country’s resources big time.

 

So I would ask: what’s a better alternative?

[John Hjorth]

Respect for a very good post of yours, Mike [ @cubsfan ],

 

We all have to pay up, to get this *thing* /*evil* to go away / disappear from the surface of the Earth.

 

Under the auspices of NATO, or whatever. It is about freedom, or the lack of it.

 

I have a personal friend, who has spent almost all his time , starting short after the war started, collecting [legally] funds for the support to Ukraine [millions of DKK], locally here in Odense [Kyiv is actually a friendship town of Odense, Denmark], and during the last cold period taking massive actions to gather and collect generators from everybody who was interested to contribute, taking care of all the logistics challenges related to getting those productive assets to Ukraine, too.

 

In short : Personally I can't see a better alternative.

[Ulti]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-829ea0ba-5b42-499b-ad40-6990f2c4e5d0

Counting Russia’s dead in Ukraine – and what it says about the changing face of the war:

[boilermaker75]

18 hours ago, cubsfan said:

I don’t know, but I have such a simple view of this situation.

 

Do you want a world where everyone has nukes? Or do you want a world where a bulk of Western favoring democracies/allies can band together under some type of umbrella protection to protect themselves against expansionist/aggressors nations?

 

Whether you call it NATO or a far East coalition against China/North Korea- the point is to have some level of strength and true WILLINGNESS to stop unchecked aggression in its tracks. You may think that is warmongering lead by the United States. I disagree. What’s your alternative is what I’d ask you? What chance do we really have for some level of world peace without such a policy???

 

And I respect the argument that this can’t apply to everyone and is unfair. You have those awful conflicts in places like Rawanda and Yugoslavia.

It seems tremendously unfair.

 

As an American, I hate the idea that so much of our GDP goes to Europe and Asia for protection. But what alternative do we really have? Become isolationists again, like we did with Japan pre-WWII? Become appeasers again like Britain did with Germany? 

We all know how that ended..

 

There’s a reason the first George Bush took the hammer to Sadaam when he invaded Kuwait. You can say it was about oil or whatever. It was about stopping aggression in its tracks and protecting the neighbors in the area. It’s about stopping something that may lead to something much, much larger. Take the pain now, before it escalates. That’s exactly where we are now with Ukraine…well into the escalation of something that well MIGHT have had been stopped much earlier. The leaders that pass off the problem look like heroes because they kept the peace….temporarily…until you have a wider conflict…

 

That’s the kind of message that tells your allies or coalition members you mean business. For US citizens, it’s sucks to be in that position since it saps the country’s resources big time.

 

So I would ask: what’s a better alternative?

 

As Thomas Paine said, "Those who expect to reap the benefits of freedom must undergo the fatigue of supporting it."

[Spekulatius]

Sturmtruppen 2023. If you have read Ernst Jungers book "In Stahlgewitter" it is exactly how he describes Sturmtruppen commandos into enemy trenches. Now we got the same thing going on more than 100 years later. Brutal.

Make no mistake, with this sort of trench warfare, both sides will be taking heavy losses.

Edited June 19, 2023 by Spekulatius

[John Hjorth]

Absolutely gruesome, ugly and meaningless seeing young men - Russian or Ukrainain - does really not matter to me! - loose their lives like this - In Europe, anno 2023! It's a disgrace for Europe.

Edited June 19, 2023 by John Hjorth

[shhughes1116]

In World War II, the Germans built the Atlantic Wall, starting in earnest around 1942.  They put over 6.5 million mines in front of the wall, and built almost 15,000 concrete fortifications along the Channel and Atlantic coast.  This was in addition to other non-concrete emplacements and other obstacles erected along beaches and in fields that could be used for landing gliders.  Fortunately for the Allies, these fortifications were mostly occupied by static divisions comprised of “volunteers”, older troops, and others with wounds that prevented them from serving in maneuver units.  The supporting mechanized units were too far removed from the beaches to have an immediate impact, and when mobilized to stem a breakthrough, they were exposed to withering CAS and artillery fire.   Once the lines finally cracked with Operation Cobra, the German mobile reserves were expended/wastes in Falaise and it was a race for the Allies to the Seine and beyond.  
 

we are seeing something similar play out in Southern Ukraine.  Russia has erected numerous field fortifications and protected them with deep minefields.  Unfortunately for Russia, these fortifications and trenches are manned by mobiks - static units with almost zero organic transport, and no training to fire and maneuver.  When the Russians are forced to bring up their reserves - a handful of VDV units - they are exposed to drone attacks and artillery fire.  I think in the next few weeks, we will see cracks in the Russian line.  The Russians will be forced to deploy their reserves, at which point the Ukrainians will deploy their remaining brigades for a culminating fight.  
 

The outcome of that fight will determine whether the Ukrainians can race to the Sea of Azov and cut the land-bridge, or have to call off the counter-offensive.  
 

 

[changegonnacome]

7 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Make no mistake, with this sort of trench warfare, both sides will be taking heavy losses.

 

Yep its brutal stuff - the issue with trench warfare or wars of attrition is that they quickly become a numbers game:

 

(1) artillery

(2) men

(3) objective

 

(1) Russia has an artillery advantage for sure. It has an artillery war machine at its captive disposal. Ukraine has strong backers with artillery capabilities lets hope this is not a limiting factor for Ukraine relative to Russia.

 

(2) Russia also has a population size advantage....crudely they can put more young men through the meat grinder than Ukraine can - it would require more mobilization and then the question becomes whether Putin has the political capital to do that. I haven't researched it so maybe somebody can answer it for me but has Ukraine effectively maximized and mobilized every fighting age man it can by now? My guess is yes but cant be sure.

 

(3) Russia is attempting to hold on to territory (East Ukraine), Ukraine is attempting to capture from Russia territory it holds. Russia is in a defensive posture & Ukraine is in an offensive posture. The exchange ratio between offensive & defensive positioning is 3:1....the math says in this posture that Ukraine may need to throw 3 men at every one Russian soldier position. The fatality rate falls disproportionally on the offensive party in this scenario sometimes in a 2:1 death ratio. The price of a counter-offensive is high in terms of men.

 

The problem with the above equation, over time, which unfortunately favors the Russian - is that Ukraine will likely run out of men before Russia does. Unless Putin's regime implodes at increasing domestic mobilization.

Edited June 19, 2023 by changegonnacome

[Sweet]

7 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Sturmtruppen 2023. If you have read Ernst Jungers book "In Stahlgewitter" it is exactly how he describes Sturmtruppen commandos into enemy trenches. Now we got the same thing going on more than 100 years later. Brutal.

Make no mistake, with this sort of trench warfare, both sides will be taking heavy losses.

That’s brutal and not nice to watch.

 

I fully support Ukraine but I also feel very bad for those Russian soldiers being killed in that video.

Many young men dying for no real cause.  It’s mad.

 

Unfortunately I also agree with @changegonnacome, this trench warfare is not good for Ukraine either, and it’s a problem if it goes on for very long.  They need to pierce the French system quickly otherwise they are going to get sucked into a war of attrition that they are less likely to win.

 

[changegonnacome]

14 minutes ago, Sweet said:

trench warfare is not good for Ukraine either, and it’s a problem if it goes on for very long.  They need to pierce the French system quickly otherwise they are going to get sucked into a war of attrition that they are less likely to win.

 

Indeed - the question the West needs to ask itself after the result becomes clear of this summer/fall counter-offensive and in a scenario where Ukraine has potentially made limited gains at a high casualty cost is:

 

(1) the West willing to help Ukraine with what it will need most for the next leg of this conflict - men?

(2) If not willing to provide them with men..(my base case)......are 'we' going to continue to provide them the equipment, money & encouragement such that they will put every Ukrainian male age 17-64 through the Eastern front meat-grinder before accepting some comprise less than their current aspirational military objective. 

Edited June 19, 2023 by changegonnacome

[Xerxes]

Ukraine-Russian 2022-23 war has a much closer resemblance to Iran-Iraq war than they do to the First World War. 
 

It starts and always ends the same way:  two boxers running with adrenaline, super pumped, than fatigue exhaustion, as they gather all their strength to throw one more punch. 
 

[Xerxes]

On 6/17/2023 at 2:09 PM, changegonnacome said:

 

Not suggesting we back down....but also kinda suggesting we in the West don't attempt or lets call it aspire to 'win' so completely either...which I know is tough when you get into war one automatically begins to think in binary outcomes and surely 'winning' is the point of getting into a conflict in the first place, right?.......however the above Japan thingy was just a little thought experiment for those that dream of 'winning' and 'defeating' Russia so completely in this conflict....defeated nations do crazy, irrational & unpredictable things......so I guess what I'm saying is be careful of what you wish for, you just might get it......as folks never quite think through what peril exists in the West/Ukraine 'winning' so completely in this conflict.

 

You know the dream on CNN.......retired Generals with maps and videos of a Russian army bloodied and battered retreating as Ukraine with NATO equipment drives East, pushing Russian forces out of Ukraine taking back the Donbass/Crimea (which are now due to emigration of Ukrainian's at the start of the war....are really just majority full of ethnically Russian people now).....& who knows maybe Ukraine in gaining these now ethically Russian regions engages in a little ethnic cleansing as payback for Russian atrocities (not sure anybody would be surprised if this happened?)....and maybe to be safe the Ukrainian army decides to push its battles lines deep into Russian territory to create some security space....all while maybe further wins & progress on the sanctions front from the Biden administration means India signs up & refuses Russian oil.....and the Russian economy begins to implode......sounds like the WH's and the Western medias dream scenario........but then stop and think what that all looks like from a seat in the Kremlin.....then think about what an Imperial Japan so defeated in Oct 1941 was so recklessly willing to do in its final throes......they attacked a nation ten times their size with a military capability with no hope of achieving anything.

 

Their reckless abandon when faced with total defeat is best illustrated by a word that jumped from their language into our language  - 'kamikaze'

 

I wonder what the Russian equivalent word for 'kamikaze' is? I hope I never find out. 

 

i think the real risk is not cornering Kremlin. I have said in the past that the nuclear window was at the onset of the war. Then it could have really shocked the West into submission. 
 

the real risk is not the tactical nukes, the real risk is Kremlin doing the reverse to Washington. Meaning attacking supply lines directly in NATO territory (explicitly) and proving that just like Kremlin’ red lines are phantom, so are the NATO red lines. 
 

both sides like to bark a lot. That is usually a sign for impotence. 
 

yes yes yes. Article 5 would become in effect. We can puff out our chests and make grand statement like “spring break in Moscow in 2024”, “an attack on 1 and attack on all” and make grand statements.

 

But really, what matter is what you will actually dare to do as counter to Russia targeting supply lines in NATO land. (Not much different than what US did in the wars in south east Asia).
 

Selling to public a glorified war being fought at arms-length and then having Moscow calling your bluff … and forcing you to engage are two very different animals.
 

That is the real risk. that the Kremlin will showcase your impotence. 
 

Western folks like talk about article 5. It works both ways. And that charade works until it is shown that it is ineffective. 
 

there is reason why there are NATO multi-national regiments in the Eastern Europe. So that all or most NATO nationalities are “bloodied” in case of a direct attack. 

Edited June 19, 2023 by Xerxes

[cubsfan]

From the Western point of view, I think you will see much more reliance on technology, drones, and artillery than manpower. The west has more respect for loss of life than the Russians. Furthermore, technology is much more important than manpower than in past wars.

 

That said, expelling Russia will be quite the chore. But there is no way Russia possesses the advantage in the fight against Western forces, out numbered or not. The West will easily outproduce the Russians and they will have no capability of destroying supply lines. It will come down to a war of attrition and who wants Ukraine the most.

 

Worst case, you end up with DMZ with Russia stopped dead in its tracks. Best case Russia gets expelled from Eastern Ukraine.

 

[changegonnacome]

Agree with a lot of what you’ve said @Xerxes in a game of true escalation I wonder who’s bluff gets called first - I suspect NATO given the existential anxiety asymmetry I’ve talked about before….it matters to Russia a lot…haven’t they demonstrated that launching the attack of Feb 2022 knowing the international commendation & sanctions was a cert. However we won’t litaget this point again…the Western consensus is that Putin is an imperialist, my contention is he’s a Russian nationalist desperately trying to preserve any semblance of Russian global power left via acts of aggression that are ultimately underpinned by security paranoia. I know this is a contrarian non-narrative view and one open to ridicule as being  pro-Russian but maths don’t lie - Russia crossed the Ukrainian border in 2022 with at most 190,000 men….if Putin is an imperialist he and his generals must have mis-read the invasion communiques…an army of 1,900,000 men would be required to ‘take’ Ukraine , not 190k.

 

If you take the view as I do then re:security the West will lose in a game of escalation the stakes are much higher for Putin than for us - there is a point where ‘we’ chicken out and he doesn’t. Not sure what that point is but my guess it comes when Ukraine runs out of the only resource we are not willing to throw at this conflict and that’s men.

 

This IMO is Putin’s medium term strategy and it doesn’t involve nukes - it involves patience and time….the attrition math, as I’ve indicated above, is in his favor the get out of jail card for the West is an unexpected & swift regime change in the Kremlin......which being honest feels to me like wishful thinking in the West driven by the deep primal knowledge that when ‘men’ are required in the future to sustain the Ukrainian defense/offense we will lack the commitment to provide them & we’ll be embarrassed and ashamed of ourselves given our earlier rhetoric around democracy & freedom. 

Edited June 19, 2023 by changegonnacome

[cubsfan]

The attrition math is not going to matter as much as technology and supply lines. The West is not going to throw human waves against entrenched Russian positions. The West has much more respect for life. This is not Verdun or The Somme. Artillery, anti-tank missiles, etc will carry the load - and stop the Russians.

 

It will be the decision of the Ukrainians if they risk devastating loss of life. Ukraines allies will have to decide how far to deplete their own armaments/stockpiles in order to destroy Russian gains.

 

It’ll be interesting to see when a treaty is negotiated. Personally, I think Crimea is gone for good. Eastern Ukraine? We’ll see…

[shhughes1116]

2 hours ago, cubsfan said:

The attrition math is not going to matter as much as technology and supply lines. The West is not going to throw human waves against entrenched Russian positions. The West has much more respect for life. This is not Verdun or The Somme. Artillery, anti-tank missiles, etc will carry the load - and stop the Russians.

 

It will be the decision of the Ukrainians if they risk devastating loss of life. Ukraines allies will have to decide how far to deplete their own armaments/stockpiles in order to destroy Russian gains.

 

It’ll be interesting to see when a treaty is negotiated. Personally, I think Crimea is gone for good. Eastern Ukraine? We’ll see…

I think Crimea is a bargaining chip for Ukraine.  Crimea is essentially uninhabitable without controlling the Kakhovka dam.  This is the dam that enables water diversion through canals to Crimea.  Keep the canals dry and drop the Kerch Bridge, and it becomes almost impossible for Russia to maintain their presence in Sevastopol and nearby bases.

[cubsfan]

13 hours ago, shhughes1116 said:

I think Crimea is a bargaining chip for Ukraine.  Crimea is essentially uninhabitable without controlling the Kakhovka dam.  This is the dam that enables water diversion through canals to Crimea.  Keep the canals dry and drop the Kerch Bridge, and it becomes almost impossible for Russia to maintain their presence in Sevastopol and nearby bases.

 
Interesting/good input. Do you think the Russians can be expelled from Eastern Ukraine? Or are we destined for a stalemate whereby Crimea is conceded in order to return the East?

[John Hjorth]

You may call me crazy or what ever, I have a personal pocket theory that Crimea for this man is about the distance to the position : 44.419°N 38.205°E , which is what? - perhaps 200 kms? :

 

[Gregmal]

On 6/18/2023 at 11:15 AM, cubsfan said:

As an American, I hate the idea that so much of our GDP goes to Europe and Asia for protection. But what alternative do we really have? Become isolationists again, like we did with Japan pre-WWII? Become appeasers again like Britain did with Germany? 

We all know how that ended..

It’s complex, but it’s also simple. We play this game and brainwash our citizens to think “us good, them bad”….but that’s not the case. My gosh how many times in MSM and even manifesting on this board I hear generalized stereotypes stated matter of factly about the “us vs them” relationship that is nothing but propaganda. These arrogant schmucks sit here and claim “in China you go missing for speaking up” and “Putin is Hitler 2.0” and all sorts of laughable stuff. Meanwhile here, look at what we do state by state and at the federal level with our judicial system or federal agencies like the FBI, IRS, etc! Different rules for the haves and have nots. Any guess what you would have gotten tagged with if you were Hunter Biden lol? Mike Pence, Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton all had classified docs that were improperly handled…Trump? 36 charges lol. Imagine how much of this goes on with normal people that we just don’t hear about? The rule of law in America is largely a farce. 
 

All this under the guise of what? World peace? US the benevolent land of prosperity, freedom and koombaya? Where the truth is it is very easy to generically and lazily deduce entire populations and cultures into slapstick representations of lesser thans held tightly within the scope and lens of our society shaped by the puppet masters. Different places have different cultural norms. We just like to mouth off because we think we are superior. If you live in China or Russia or UAE it is culturally different. Often by choice. Are there some who for whatever reason rather not be there? Sure. But that’s everywhere. Here we brainwash our people into thinking everyone living in China hates it, and is oppressed and dying to leave but can’t because of evil dictators. Same with Russia. But you know how many pro athletes, NHL guys from Russia get over here and happily go back or spend time in both countries? Our citizens and MSM spend a lot of time creating these narratives and divisive storylines and I think all you can do as an individual is respect the truth and norms of others, even if we don’t understand them. 
 

As a citizen, I’m kinda tired of them playing these games and wasting tons of money solely out of the need to play politics or some elites only world chess game. Pretending we are “sending aid” to Ukraine while the Lindsey Grahams and Joe Bidens drink scotch together laughing about playing faux War with other peoples soldiers….after of course briefing the media on how we need to craft a “poor oppressed Ukraine against a big bad evil Russian dictator state” narrative around it in order to sell it to the minions.

Edited June 20, 2023 by Gregmal

[cubsfan]

^^^ I agree with much of what you are saying. The US should hardly throw stones at the rest of the world given our ridiculous Federal corruption and 2 tiered justice system playing out. And of course all of us should be highly suspect about President Biden's goals in Ukraine given the bribery allegations in play. Does he stand by Ukraine in order to pay his family's bribes back from Burisma?

Or is he doing it to stop Russian aggression, when he & Obama took a pass on arming Ukraine prior to 2016? Both effectively gave Putin the all clear to continue invading Ukraine. Nothing was more sickening to watch than Obama lecturing the rest of the world like he ordain a new world order.

 

I'm highly conflicted about this myself. You do 100% withdrawal from Afghanistan and let the country collapse - because you are tired of fighting. Yet you are a war monger when it comes to Ukraine.

I have no idea how you defend such foreign policy.

 

US allies need to know what to expect from the US - they must be more confused than ever.

 

I still get back to the big picture that the US & Europe need to decide if the entire world is going to nuke up - or if they, together, will provide some type of forceful umbrella protection against invaders.

I do not think you can discount the 70 years of relative peace in Europe against invasions due to this policy.

 

It's expensive for the US, it should be for Europe as well - but the benefits of free trade allow all these countries to thrive.

[Viking]

“They say ‘you don’t know what you’ve got until it’s gone.’ The truth is, you knew exactly what you had. You just didn’t think that you were going to lose it.” ~Unknown

 

One of my great fears raising three children is they would grow up with an entitled attitude. Being born in Canada they are living in one of the greatest countries in the world - an 8 out of 10 situation. But if they think its a 3 out of 10 situation then all they will do is bitch and complain about everything all their life. What a waste. (And not just their life..l but the lives of those around them.)
 

i also try and teach them to have working brains. Think for themselves. It is not that difficult to understand important issues given all the great worldwide information sources out there today. Most importantly, avoid the conspiracy theory rabbit hole - over time that stuff will turn your brain to jelly (that is actually my sons line).
 

i also try and teach them that actions have consequences. Mistakes are a part of life. They need to own the consequences of their decisions. Most importantly, don’t play the victim card.

 

And of course, perspective is the key to most things. I ask my 2 daughters… would their life be different it they lived in a country like Afganistan? Its population is about the same as Canada’s. Education? Marriage? Occupation?
 

With all its faults, living in Western liberal democracies is a gift. That gift exists because of the hard work and sacrifice of the generations who came before. I tell my kids to appreciate the gift they have been given and live their life to the fullest.

Edited June 20, 2023 by Viking

[Gregmal]

21 minutes ago, Viking said:

And of course, perspective is the key to most things. I ask my 2 daughters… would their life be different it they lived in a country like Afganistan? Its population is about the same as Canada’s. Education? Marriage? Occupation?

Why pick Afghanistan though? Their lives would be monumentally different if they lived in Paterson, NJ or Detroit, Michigan. A wealthy Chinese or Russian family could easily make the same point to their kids….”imagine living in the Bronx? Or south side of Chicago?”. 
 

The world we live in is filled with cherry picked, divisive rhetoric. Really, whether it’s America, Afghanistan, Ukraine, France, or China….most people are just trying to live their lives and do their best and it’s consistently the government and establishment folks causing problems and chaos through interference. 

[Xerxes]

Indeed. Why not say “Singapore”. Run by an authoritarian regime that doesn’t allow you to chew gum. I would love to live in Singapore and not be allowed to chew gum. 
 

Why not Indonesia ? The world largest Muslim country by population that doesn’t come to mind when we think of largest Muslim country. because our default programming in the West makes us think of a country in Middle East as the largest Muslim country. 
 

There are some areas that largely developed on their own post-WW2, became the economic beast that they are today, thanks to CIA (and the like) not interfering, plotting their coup d’état, shaping foreign policy. Even Vietnam and the rest “figured things out” once the foreign intervention ended. 

just like it is a bad idea for central banks causing distortion in the financial markets, it is bad for Western (or any other) governments interfering into the affairs and natural development of others. There are consequences that goes on for decades, long after we lose interest in whatever regions we felt excited by. 

 

[Gregmal]

Our ideas of what is ideal in terms of lifestyle is wholly influenced by where we are located. Go out to Nebraska farmland or inner city in California and most people probably think the UAE is filled with terrorists and any foreigner who goes there will be kidnapped and beheaded. Meanwhile many places in the UAE make much of the US look like a third world country. Then go to South American cities and find the throngs of women who WANT nothing more than to just find a good husband so they can pop out kids and take care of them. 
 

All this shit is perspective, but all of our perspectives are jaded but what we are accustomed to. And especially flawed is much of the North American perspective in that…”everyone wants what we have”.