Russia-Ukrainian War

[Spekulatius]

Well, WSJ and DW has it too. Private plan crash that was very conveniently documented with a camera. Could not have happened to a nicer guy. Looks like an accident, but so fake that everyone knows it’s not.

 

[aws]

Took down the Wagner #2 as well, the guy with all the nazi tattoos. Putin finally did some actual denazification.

[Luca]

Wagner official telegram account confirmed his death too, russian local governments as well. Very very scary. 

[Blugolds11]

2 hours ago, Luca said:

Wagner official telegram account confirmed his death too, russian local governments as well. Very very scary. 

 

Why is it scary? This was the most predictable thing ever. If you want to take a shot at dethroning the big man you better make it count, cause if you miss...you're done. 

 

Putin tried to kill Navalney, others...any challenger better succeed or they're dead. This is a basic page from any Dictator playbook, sends a message and makes an example. 

 

I knew Prigozhion was a walking dead man the second I saw him on video and heard what he said, if there was any doubt, that was gone when he started heading to Moscow. 

[Luca]

33 minutes ago, Blugolds11 said:

 

Why is it scary? This was the most predictable thing ever. If you want to take a shot at dethroning the big man you better make it count, cause if you miss...you're done. 

 

Putin tried to kill Navalney, others...any challenger better succeed or they're dead. This is a basic page from any Dictator playbook, sends a message and makes an example. 

 

I knew Prigozhion was a walking dead man the second I saw him on video and heard what he said, if there was any doubt, that was gone when he started heading to Moscow. 

The thought of flying around with an airplane and then getting shot down is scary  But yeah, could have predicted that.

[Xerxes]

As the saying goes … if you come at the king, you best not miss.

 

Though personally I don’t think he was gunning at the king (rather gunning at MoD), not many people in Putin inner circle have the “minerals” or intellectual IQ in them to try to topple him. Those who had it were sidelined years ago. Putin is the Godfather, plain and simple, surrounded by lesser men. 
 

His mistake though has been to apply the peace-time strategy of creating competition in his inner circle in war-time, which has boiled over between MoD and Wagner. Instead of not procrastinating and being decisive. 
 

At the end of the day, the aborted coup caused a reputationnal damage. I admit I thought that his African connections would have save him. 

[Castanza]

Crashing planes is becoming a Russian pastime. 

 

https://observer.com/2018/05/evidence-shows-russia-had-role-in-smolensk-crash-killed-kaczynski/

[Intelligent_Investor]

Pentagon saying they don't believe the plane was shot down...looks like initial reports of a missile may be inaccurate/misinformation

[Spekulatius]

11 hours ago, Luca said:

The thought of flying around with an airplane and then getting shot down is scary  But yeah, could have predicted that.

It was predicted here on this board. However, even things that can be predicated can be scary.

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, Intelligent_Investor said:

Pentagon saying they don't believe the plane was shot down...looks like initial reports of a missile may be inaccurate/misinformation

It’s a hypothesis at this point that the plane was shot down, but the video shown shows a vapor trail concstent with a missile. Also it appears like the plain had lost one wing which is a pretty rare occurance. So, I think the hypothesis has decent support.

 

We probably will never know for sure until much later after Putin is gone. I think it is in Putins interest that this remains shrouded in mystery.

Edited August 24, 2023 by Spekulatius

[John Hjorth]

On 8/25/2023 at 12:50 AM, Spekulatius said:

It’s a hypothesis at this point that the plane was shot down, but the video shown shows a vapor trail concstent with a missile. Also it appears like the plain had lost one wing which is a pretty rare occurance. So, I think the hypothesis has decent support.

 

We probably will never know for sure until much later after Putin is gone. I think it is in Putins interest that this remains shrouded in mystery.

 

A tweet by Anton Gerashchenko supporting the view of @Spekulatius

 

 

Edited August 26, 2023 by John Hjorth

[Spekulatius]

Mr Pringles demise reminds of me of this quote:

 

“We know they are lying, they know they are lying, they know we know they are lying, we know they know we know they are lying, but they are still lying.” – Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn

[Castanza]

15 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Mr Pringles demise reminds of me of this quote:

 

“We know they are lying, they know they are lying, they know we know they are lying, we know they know we know they are lying, but they are still lying.” – Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn

Perfect quote to sum it up

[cwericb]

 

But....

 

We all assume Putin was behind the death of Prigozhion. But what if Putin was in fact NOT responsible the crash?  What if the crash was caused by a small bomb planted by the Ukrainians?

 

Prigozhion has repeatedly and publically called out the incompetence of the Russian Army.  Would not the Ukrainians rather contend with an incompetent Russian Army than the more sucessful Wagner Group?

 

Eliminating Prigozhion and his top people helps to derisk the likelihood that his private army will lead another advance on the Ukraine and leaves the incompetent Russian Army leadership in charge of the war.

 

As a side benefit, blaming it on Putin just reinforces his bad reputation throughout the rest of the world.

 

Food for thought?

[Xerxes]

Very much doubt Ukrainian had anything to do with this. 
 

it was either the Kremlin or elements of GRU or MoD (without Kremlin’ consent). And the latter is unlikely as well. 
 

Wagner was largely de-fanged post its aborted march on Moscow. People forget that it was MoD that provides all or most of its heavy equipment. Without which Wagner is just a lightly armed militia. 

[Xerxes]

The other possibility is that Bane was responsible for the Wagner’ leadership team demise. 
 

 

[John Hjorth]

And now this from Ramsan Kadyrov . Let this inflated moonface just try. Such a train wreck of a human being. His final day will come, too.

 

 

[Spekulatius]

Putin, Prighozin, Sechin, Kadyrov, Peskov, Maria Zakharova.

 

If you ever need to find some villains ideas for another James Bond movie, you have got it all there.

https://nypost.com/2022/08/13/putins-evil-inner-circle-nikolai-patrushev-to-ramzan-kadyrov/

[John Hjorth]

3 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Putin, Prighozin, Sechin, Kadyrov, Peskov, Maria Zakharova.

 

If you ever need to find some villains ideas for another James Bond movie, you have got it all there.

https://nypost.com/2022/08/13/putins-evil-inner-circle-nikolai-patrushev-to-ramzan-kadyrov/

 

It's mystery to me, how nobody told the uber-oligarch Vladimir Potanin to dye his eyes browes too, or is this - [also] - about a wig?

[Castanza]

Can see the missile trail plain as day 

 

Translation of the videographer in the comments. 

Edited August 27, 2023 by Castanza

[Spekulatius]

Looks like the counteroffensive finally gets some momentum. It looks like the first defense line has been cracked around Robotyne  and the 2nd line is being probed. If the breach in the first line is widened the  Russia may have to retreat on a much wider scale or their troops remaining in the first line could get surrounded.

 

Also Tokmak (major logistics hub and is fortresses)  is now less than 20 km from the front line which means it get under intense artillery not just HIMARS fire. Things could get ugly for the Russian fairly quickly.

 

Edited August 28, 2023 by Spekulatius

[no_free_lunch]

13 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

And now this from Ramsan Kadyrov . Let this inflated moonface just try. Such a train wreck of a human being. His final day will come, too.

 

 

Kadyrov and the whole RF can't even finish the war in Ukraine!  They would not last 1 day against the nato block. 

 

The only concerns I have is how China and ultimately India play into this.  China is rumored to be providing ever larger shipments of various drones and given their manufacturing capacity this needs to be followed. 

[changegonnacome]

On 8/26/2023 at 12:55 PM, Spekulatius said:

“We know they are lying, they know they are lying, they know we know they are lying, we know they know we know they are lying, but they are still lying.” – Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn

 

Remind me of this from an Adam Curtis documentary I recommend folks check out - Hypernormalisation.....modern Russia is a bewildering mess of propaganda, fake news & psyops........all designed to ensure that people there are never really sure what is exactly happening & by whom...even the 'opposition'...it's designed to lead to civic paralysis which in and of itself is a form of power.......and based on the evidence of the last couple of decades its worked quite beautifully....as measured by civil disobedience that has ever seriously threatened the Putin regime in that time

 

 

 

[Castanza]

*GRAPHIC* 

 

War is Hell and trench warfare is probably about as close to the 9th circle as you can get. It’s “fun” to discuss strategy here, but when it comes to war I think it’s important to keep perspective on the reality of it. Any one of us could have been easily born Russian and thrown to the wolves in a similar situation. It’s been interesting to discuss this war with my brother who is adopted from Russia. He is a combat veteran and served in Afghanistan during the mid 2000s. He said it’s weird to think that likely most of the other boys that he was with in the orphanage are likely in the Russian military now; probably being thrown to the meat grinder and how he could have easily been on the other end of the military spectrum. 
 

Perspective matters when discussing these topics. 
 

Above is a recent video of Ukrainian SEALs (Western trained) clearing a trench line against Russian soldier thrown to the meat grinder. Under-equipped, under-prepared, and likely no desire to be there. I thought this Reddit users comment on the video was pertinent

 

 

Edited August 28, 2023 by Castanza

[backtothebeach]

13 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

 

 

36 minutes ago, Castanza said:

War is Hell and trench warfare is probably about as close to the 9th circle as you can get. It’s “fun” to discuss strategy here, but when it comes to war I think it’s important to keep perspective on the reality of it. Any one of us could have been easily born Russian

This.
Frankly, I find the guy in the video that Spek posted distasteful. From the thumbnail to selling his war merch in the middle of the video.