Russia-Ukrainian War

[Spekulatius]

38 minutes ago, Blugolds11 said:

Biden says Western leaders discussed food shortages, which he says will be "real"

US President Joe Biden said leaders discussed the possibilities of food shortages triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Biden said food shortages will be "real," and he called Ukraine and Russia the "breadbasket" for Europe.

Supplies from the two countries together account for almost 30% of global wheat trade.

"The price of the sanctions is not just imposed upon Russia. It's imposed upon an awful lot of countries as well, including European countries and our country as well," Biden said in remarks after an emergency NATO meeting in Brussels.

"We had a long discussion in the G7 with ... both the United States, which has a significant — the third largest producer of wheat in the world — as well as Canada, which is also a major, major producer. And we both talked about how we could increase and disseminate more rapidly food ... In addition to that, we talked about urging all the European countries and everyone else to end trade restrictions on sending, limitations on sending food abroad. So we are in the process of working out with our European friends what it would be, what it would take to help alleviate the concerns relative to food shortages," he said.

Biden also mentioned a "significant" US investment model for humanitarian assistance, which would include food.

Separately, French President Emmanuel Macron laid out the details of a proposed EU-led food security initiative designed to alleviate the risk of food shortages caused by the war.

“This situation will create a food crisis, extremely serious humanitarian situations in several countries and are sure to have massive political consequences in several countries,” Macron said at a news conference in Brussels on Thursday.

According to a document circulated by the Elysée, Russia is the top exporter of wheat worldwide (33 million tons in 2021) with Ukraine not far behind (fourth largest exporter, with 20 million tons in 2021).

The document estimates 27 mostly African and Middle Eastern countries source over 50% of their wheat from Russia or Ukraine.

The three-pronged initiative spelled out in the document would rely on measures, such as making crisis stockpiles of grain available to “avoid any shortages and keep prices down,” raising production thresholds, and stepping up investments in sustainable agriculture in the most-affected countries.

 

 

The "breadbasket" has been mentioned before...people will stomach higher prices at the pump...but if food increases even more, similar to construction materials (2-3x) and people will REALLY feel it. Never in my lifetime have I gone to the grocery store and literally seen 80% of store shelves empty, but it happened during COVID, possible that we see that again? 

The Russian production will not be lost but the Ukrainian will be partly (but not completely lost). So I don't think the food shortage will be as bad as it's made out.

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, no_free_lunch said:

Oh im talking about these theories that the country is better off without weapons and Im pushing against anything that goes against them fighting.  Maybe we can give them just a little bit of respect and assume they know what's best for their country?  If they need weapons give them the weapons.

 

We armed Afghanistan against the Soviets back in the day and somehow they actually won that one.  The Americans failed in Vietnam despite huge efforts and that was at their peak.  Given the incompetence of the Russian army perhaps Ukraine can actually hold them off. However they are going to need more than manpads. Ultimately they will need to launch offensives.  More and more powerful weapons are needed. 

 

What we really need are new fronts against Russia.  Shutting down the gas flow to Europe would be one.  Syria, Chechnya, Georgia, now is the time.  Would be a good time for Sweden and Finland to join NATO too.  Russia is stretched right now, what are they going to do?   They have said themselves they only use nuclear when the homeland is attacked.

I believe Finland is quite likely to join NATO. The former Finnish President has clearly stated that Putin threatened him when this topic was brought up a while ago, despite the fact that so far the Finns preferred neutrality. (there is a youtube interview). The Fins have a pretty long border with Russia and now have to consider these threats as real.

 

Sweden has no border with Russia and a long history of neutrality, so my guess is they are much less likely to Join. the only ruffles they had with the Russians were in the Baltic sea.

 

If Ukraine survives this war as an independent entity, Russia has achieved the exact opposite of what they wanted to achieve which was a puppet state as a buffer. They have made a mortal enemy with a capable army that works together with the NATO. Even if they are not part of NATO, they may join the EU (this has been set in motion already).

 

You know it's sort of easy to keep friendly neighbors if Russia wanted to. You just trade with them and keep friendly relationships, rather than create mortal enemies. Now they have done the latter and probably helped expand the NATO in the north as well, if Finland indeed joins.

Edited March 24, 2022 by Spekulatius

[Xerxes]

43 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:

Oh im talking about these theories that the country is better off without weapons and Im pushing against anything that goes against them fighting.  Maybe we can give them just a little bit of respect and assume they know what's best for their country?  If they need weapons give them the weapons.

 

We armed Afghanistan against the Soviets back in the day and somehow they actually won that one.  The Americans failed in Vietnam despite huge efforts and that was at their peak.  Given the incompetence of the Russian army perhaps Ukraine can actually hold them off. However they are going to need more than manpads. Ultimately they will need to launch offensives.  More and more powerful weapons are needed. 

 

What we really need are new fronts against Russia.  Shutting down the gas flow to Europe would be one.  Syria, Chechnya, Georgia, now is the time.  Would be a good time for Sweden and Finland to join NATO too.  Russia is stretched right now, what are they going to do?   They have said themselves they only use nuclear when the homeland is attacked.

i don’t think anyone here has said they should lay down their arms or anyone here disrespected them. I think people in this thread need to stop thinking in binary terms. 
 

Right now both sides (Russian & Ukrainian) are just gathering as much bargaining chip as they can even as they exhaust themselves on the battlefield, so that they got the most bargaining chips when the talk restart. But at some points both sides need to give in. What they will give or not is up to them. For instance if Zelenski says no formal recognition of Crimea, well guess what war continues, even if Russia is depleted it will just not end. If there is no mechanism to safeguard Ukraine’ safety against the wolves than that won’t work for Ukraine either. I.e de-militarization is non-starter.  
 

as far as Afghanistan is concerned, we empowered ISI, funnelled into it Saudi money (along with Bin Laden) to wage their jihad along Stingers (which came down some years later). But I don’t recall U.S Air Force flying sorties against Soviet positions. 
 

if what you are saying is that World War 3 is worth having for Ukraine. Then the answer is no. I am sorry but it is not. Everything short of that vortex that will push our insane leaders to do insane things. I ll remind everyone that the Soviet almost went nuclear early 1980s because they mistook a NATO exercise for the real thing. Just because they themselves had simulated a real pre-emptive nuclear strike during an excerise. 

 

Nothing to do with Ukraine. Just like World War One was not worth having because Austria-Hungry decided to punish Serbia by an invasion. and of course WW2 is just a by-product of the first war. 
 

frankly this current war is doing more damage to Russia than the Soviet-Afghan did in 10 years. At least that was amortized. 

[Blugolds11]

11 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

I believe Finland is quite likely to join NATO. The former Finnish President has clearly stated that Putin threatened him when this topic was brought up a while ago, despite the fact that so far the Finns preferred neutrality. (there is a youtube interview). The Fins have a pretty long border with Russia and now have to consider these threats as real.

 

Sweden has no border with Russia and a long history of neutrality, so my guess is they are much less likely to Join. the only ruffles they had with the Russians were in the Baltic sea.

 

If Finland joins first, Sweden will kind of get the benefit of joining without really having to pay/join...Russia would have to go through a NATO country to invade on land otherwise they would have to come across the Baltic and that would be tough.

 

So if Finland joins, for all intents and purposes...Sweden is basically "protected" by NATO countries and could maintain their neutrality if they didnt want to make it official. 

 

If Im thinking about it correctly. 

 

I hope you're right about the food shortages

Edited March 24, 2022 by Blugolds11

[Spekulatius]

@Xerxes I think there is little question that Russia is keeping the Crimean. It was an historical accident that it fell to Ukraine to being with, plus Putin controls it already.

I think Donesz and Luhansk is much less clear. Yes, people speak mostly Russian there, but that does not mean they like to be Russians. I believe  if there is a fair referendum, there is a strong likelyhood that they chose to remain in Ukraine.

[Xerxes]

How many people who are posting on this thread have actually lived in a country at war or one that has been invaded. Or served in the military ?

 

having an ice-cream in NYC while cheering for the invasion of Iraq or watching it unfold in 2003 doesn’t count “as living in a country at war”

[Xerxes]

8 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

@Xerxes I think there is little question that Russia is keeping the Crimean. It was an historical accident that it fell to Ukraine to being with, plus Putin controls it already.

I think Donesz and Luhansk is much less clear. Yes, people speak mostly Russian there, but that does not mean they like to be Russians. I believe  if there is a fair referendum, there is a strong likelyhood that they chose to remain in Ukraine.

fully agree. 
 

Donesz were just pawns in Putin’ hybrid war. Even he didn’t want to annex them. But just to keep them forever in state of limbo. 

Edited March 24, 2022 by Xerxes

[Xerxes]

Just imagine how off Russian intelligence was about Ukraine, and how off their perceived view of Russia’ national security could be … that completely deranged view, amplified by sanctions, and the need to not back down would be the deciding factor to go the tactical-nuke or not 

[no_free_lunch]

33 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

i don’t think anyone here has said they should lay down their arms or anyone here disrespected them. I think people in this thread need to stop thinking in binary terms. 
 

Right now both sides (Russian & Ukrainian) are just gathering as much bargaining chip as they can even as they exhaust themselves on the battlefield, so that they got the most bargaining chips when the talk restart. But at some points both sides need to give in. What they will give or not is up to them. For instance if Zelenski says no formal recognition of Crimea, well guess what war continues, even if Russia is depleted it will just not end. If there is no mechanism to safeguard Ukraine’ safety against the wolves than that won’t work for Ukraine either. I.e de-militarization is non-starter.  
 

as far as Afghanistan is concerned, we empowered ISI, funnelled into it Saudi money (along with Bin Laden) to wage their jihad along Stingers (which came down some years later). But I don’t recall U.S Air Force flying sorties against Soviet positions. 
 

if what you are saying is that World War 3 is worth having for Ukraine. Then the answer is no. I am sorry but it is not. Everything short of that vortex that will push our insane leaders to do insane things. I ll remind everyone that the Soviet almost went nuclear early 1980s because they mistook a NATO exercise for the real thing. Just because they themselves had simulated a real pre-emptive nuclear strike during an excerise. 

 

Nothing to do with Ukraine. Just like World War One was not worth having because Austria-Hungry decided to punish Serbia by an invasion. and of course WW2 is just a by-product of the first war. 
 

frankly this current war is doing more damage to Russia than the Soviet-Afghan did in 10 years. At least that was amortized. 

I am definitely NOT suggesting direct NATO involvement.  E.g. bombing runs or no fly.  I am suggesting we can give them all sorts of weapons and it will be up to them beyond that.  The only NATO involvement I would like is to close the pipeline.

 

In general your allusion to NATO mil intervention is a strawman and one I see often, not just you. It's used as a method to stifle and distract the argument for supporting Ukraine.  

 

Have I ever been in a country that was invaded?  No.  However the people in Ukraine certainly have and they are telling you what they want. 

Edited March 24, 2022 by no_free_lunch

[Xerxes]

Reading your first paragraph I am not sure where the disagreement is. Except that natural gas is a question for Western government to solve and not NATO. 
 

As for your second paragraph, let’s be clear on definitions. “military intervention” for me means just that:  no-fly-zone, bombing Russian positions etc, which you said you are also against, which is where I am standing too. I got no problem with re-painted Mig-29 being sent under the radar to Ukraine. But that is not called a NATO military intervention. So again don’t see any disagreement, except for definitions. 
 

on third paragraph, I am glad

[Spekulatius]

18 hours ago, Xerxes said:

Are we really surprised about the kangaroo tribunal being set up, given that Biden had said Putin is war criminal. There is always tit for tat, and this is not a theory. 

Calling Putin a war criminal is not about Putin. It is strategically about the people who help him, enable him to make them they think twice, enabling his war crimes. At some point this will be over and on a long enough timeframe, there could be a reckoning for those people. It’s probably not going to do much, but it is worth trying.

[Spekulatius]

I never donated for armed forces before, but here we go:

https://bank.gov.ua/en/news/all/natsionalniy-bank-vidkriv-spetsrahunok-dlya-zboru-koshtiv-na-potrebi-armiyi

 

[Xerxes]

Well done Spek !!

[no_free_lunch]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

I never donated for armed forces before, but here we go:

https://bank.gov.ua/en/news/all/natsionalniy-bank-vidkriv-spetsrahunok-dlya-zboru-koshtiv-na-potrebi-armiyi

 

.

Challenge accepted. I will do the same. 

Edited March 25, 2022 by no_free_lunch

[Spekulatius]

16 hours ago, no_free_lunch said:

.

Challenge accepted. I will do the same. 

The above was actually recommended from an Ukraine poster on FB and Nextdoor and it's on Klitschko's (Myor of Kyiv) list as well. in the meant time, these guys are doing the real work:

 

There should also be Ukraine organizations in your area. They know what to do I assume. I donated to #Mightycause (UCCA  -Ukrainian Congress Committee of America) as well. Hope they put the money to good use.

 

[Xerxes]

War is over !!

waste of a beautiful tiger 

 

Edited March 25, 2022 by Xerxes

[TwoCitiesCapital]

2 hours ago, Xerxes said:

War is over !!

waste of a beautiful tiger 

 

 

'heroic emergency efforts' is a funny way to spell 'invaded Ukraine'. Must be Russian propoganda

[Xerxes]

1 hour ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

'heroic emergency efforts' is a funny way to spell 'invaded Ukraine'. Must be Russian propoganda

Message from Kim. I am here too

 

 

on a different note Shoigu (Russian defense minister) had disappeared for more than 15 days, only to re-appear briefly yesterday, and then today the word is that he had an heart attack.  
 

I would too if my armies (my raison d’être) was melting around me 

Edited March 26, 2022 by Xerxes

[Spekulatius]

22 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

Message from Kim. I am here too

 

 

on a different note Shoigu (Russian defense minister) had disappeared for more than 15 days, only to re-appear briefly yesterday, and then today the word is that he had an heart attack.  
 

I would too if my armies (my raison d’être) was melting around me 

Great trailer. Can’t wait for the movie to come out.

[Gregmal]

That is indeed awesome. Kim is a huge closet Amerifan. Supposedly has like a 5,000 dvd collection of American movies, signed sports and movie memorabilia, and all sorts of designer clothing 

[changegonnacome]

19 hours ago, Xerxes said:

Message from Kim. I am here too

 

 

on a different note Shoigu (Russian defense minister) had disappeared for more than 15 days, only to re-appear briefly yesterday, and then today the word is that he had an heart attack.  
 

I would too if my armies (my raison d’être) was melting around me 

 

All i could think of during that trailer, was that their North Korean produced wristwatches must have been giving them trouble they were looking at them so much

 

On a more serious note - North Korea has got the memo a long time ago.......get inter-continental nuclear capability & you go from the little leagues to the top table in one jump. Ukraine has taught any nation, with an existing nuclear capability, don't get taken in by nuclear non-proliferation peaceniks coming knocking on your door promising you security guarantees in exchange for disarmament.......tell them to go do one.........dont be a moron, dont give up your nukes

 

Edited March 26, 2022 by changegonnacome

[SharperDingaan]

It would seem that Putin now has a price on his head, and that global economic policy is indeed 'Putin in a box'.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-ukraine-march26-2022-1.6398710

 

Have to think there is now a new card deck. Putin as the 'Ace of Spades', and worth a lot more than a mere 25M!

Thing is .. if you're one of the other 51 in the deck - Russian Roulette now has a whole new meaning.

https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-14666182

 

The obvious competitive solution is to do a deal.

Hands off for X years, and an extended crackdown on your competitors .....  if the czar is dead?

Verified by multiple and independent DNA testing, paid in BTC, and no questions asked?

 

Capitalism is such a bastard!

 

SD

 

 

[no_free_lunch]

20 hours ago, Xerxes said:

Message from Kim. I am here too

 

 

on a different note Shoigu (Russian defense minister) had disappeared for more than 15 days, only to re-appear briefly yesterday, and then today the word is that he had an heart attack.  
 

I would too if my armies (my raison d’être) was melting around me 

 

I preferred his original Gangnam Style video.  It was a lot more catchy and upbeat. This one was boring and not much dance moves.   His career is done if he doesn't step up his game. 

[Spekulatius]

Zelensky interview in the Economist:
https://www.economist.com/europe/volodymyr-zelensky-on-why-ukraine-must-defeat-putin/21808448

[shru]

On 3/25/2022 at 6:50 AM, Spekulatius said:

The Russian production will not be lost but the Ukrainian will be partly (but not completely lost). So I don't think the food shortage will be as bad as it's made out.

I reckon - India has grain surplus and India will easily be able to supply and meet the deficit.