Russia-Ukrainian War

[John Hjorth]

For entertaiment, the video clip from the episode in the weekend with English text translation.

 

 

[John Hjorth]

 

[Dinar]

26 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

What do you make of this?  Seems to be a bunch of empty words to me (I read, speak and understand Russian fluently.)

[John Hjorth]

I don't know, @Dinar,

 

I still have a feeling that we are only observing the top of the iceberg. Would I trust any of those two men who were primary actors over the weekend? No, certainly not.

 

I consider them both thugs and criminals. They both have blood not only on their hands, but all over themselves, they both don't give a damn how many lives of young Russian or Ukrainian men are lost in this madness. Remember the sledgehammer video?

 

I did not read an amnesty to Yevgeny Prigozhin in the subtitles, more the opposite, I think [, but does that even matter anything?].

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Do you consider the translation OK here, @Dinar? Thank you.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Aleksandr Lukasjenko has postponed his speech to tomorrow.

Edited June 27, 2023 by John Hjorth

[Dinar]

@John Hjorth, I honestly did not read the subtitles.  He did not address Prigozhin by name, but he did say that people could go back to their homes, enlist in the army or go to Belarus.  However, I don't trust a word that Putin says.  This whole thing is very, very weird, and I have never been good at reading political tea leaves, particularly in the Kremlin.

 

 

[Spekulatius]

Wagner is being disbanded and I expect there will be purges. Prigozhin will pay the price.

 

Putin rarely drops names and I think it is not an accident that he did not directly address Prigozhin. He is already a dead man walking anyways.

[sleepydragon]

There's also a possibility this is an elaborated cover to enable Wagner to launch a surprise attack from Belarus..

[Gregmal]

Is this “coup” what wasn’t why the Nasdaq crashed 1% today?

[ValueArb]

24 minutes ago, sleepydragon said:

There's also a possibility this is an elaborated cover to enable Wagner to launch a surprise attack from Belarus..

It’s really sad that the myth of Putin playing 4D chess has any legs left. There is zero chance a “surprise” attack can be launched from Belarus, given the level of monitoring by satellites as well as AWACs the Ukrainians have access to,  not even counting their human Intel inside of Belarus. And the last guy you want running a sneak attack is Prighozen, he’s not a general he’s a recruiter of the desperate who throws his recruits into terrible meatgrinders with little hope of success.

 

Any elaborate cover that involves weakening your defensive lines significantly by moving 24k troops in a march on Moscow where they shoot down 7 badly needed air assets and crews, while making Putin look like an ineffectual coward would be the worst plan ever.
 

This is basic Russian gangsterism, the mafia running the MoD attempted to kneecap Prighozen by forcing Wagner to get folded under their command, and he revolted before they could arrest him once he was defenseless. He has enough troops to get to Moscow but little hope of holding it, so he was able to leverage a fat bribe to stand cien his troops.

[Xerxes]

2 hours ago, sleepydragon said:

There's also a possibility this is an elaborated cover to enable Wagner to launch a surprise attack from Belarus..

 

Very highly unlikely 

 

Kremlin, to their credit, achieved a great strategic surprise when they massed their troops at the gate of Kiev. And then wasted it. That was 2022. And that feat will not repeated.

 

To be honest with everyone I dont know what to make of this whole episode. I dont know what to make of Pregozhen. Don't understand how a mortal man can be so loud ... it is surreal and still does not make sense to me. Anything that I listen on TV, just repeats the facts shown and build narrative after the fact.

 

That said, I do think that historically coup d'etat have very binary outcome that are determined almost straight away when support materializes (or not), and in case it did not. Mortal men taking selfies in Rostov with the chef does not mean support. The pillars of the Russian state, the oligarchs and the support system did not flinch, and by not flinching they supported their Tsar.

 

It was a very strange coup d'etat if ever that it was. As it was NOT explicitly directed toward the organ of the state (the office of the president) but toward ministry of defense. A very strange coup d'etat indeed.

 

Dr. Ian Bremmer, from Eurasia Group, this morning had a great interview with Bloomberg Surveillance. The good doctor is absolutely right. The one thing we did not need was an totally unstable character Pregozhen somehow getting to the top.

 

 

 

Edited June 27, 2023 by Xerxes

[Xerxes]

2 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Wagner is being disbanded and I expect there will be purges. Prigozhin will pay the price.

 

Putin rarely drops names and I think it is not an accident that he did not directly address Prigozhin. He is already a dead man walking anyways.

 

I almost think the fact that there were popular support for his person in Rostov, probably means his life will be extended, at least until there is no rumbling should he falls. But dead man walking indeed. And he knows it.

 

As a historical analogy, the fall and disbanding of the Janisseries comes to mind. How they became a corrupt power within the Ottoman court over centuries, effectively a state within an state, and kingmakers, rotting the regime from the inside. Until a sultan decided that this was it.  

 

Auspicious Incident - Wikipedia

 

I think Western media should be looking at the power dynamic between Wagner and Kremlin before 2022. There must be something there that has been unexplored thus far. This cannot just be a Game of Throne like episode, with warlord deciding to make a run for the King' Landing.

 

[John Hjorth]

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/lars-christensen-422793_i-går-talte-jeg-med-god-russisk-ven-han-activity-7079346670341091328-Y6ka?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

 

 

Translation from Danish to English :

 

"Yesterday I spoke with good Russian friend. He said something very important to me about the situation in Russia: "Never underestimate the Russians' willingness to deceive themselves".

 

The words fell as we talked about the events of the weekend and how the Russian people would react to them. We agreed that the events have weakened Putin's reputation among the Russian population and my Russian friend was articularly surprised by how many people had spontaneously taken to the streets of Rostov and cheered Wagner's entry into the city.

 

But when we talked about what happens next and how the population would react, we agreed on what I have often said - namely that the Russians will not take to the streets against Putin, but they will not take to the streets for Putin either .

 

Russia is NOT headed for a civil war in the sense that large parts of the population will join a rebellion.

 

What Russia may be heading for is repeated coup attempts, where different parts of the power structure will go to war with each other. But the population will continue to tell themselves that everything is "normal".

 

"Never underestimate the Russians' willingness to deceive themselves" - tells everything about what decades - or rather centuries of dictatorship do to a population's ability to think independently. In totalitarian regimes, not thinking about politics becomes a way of survival.

 

PS for natural reasons I can't share my friend's name. But he is not in Russia anymore. In fact, virtually none of my Russian friends or acquaintances are. Those who can still think are long gone. They will not give up thinking independently, and then they cannot live in Russia."

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

I personally think there is lot to the above. And thinking about it in that way is really depressing.

Edited June 27, 2023 by John Hjorth

[Spekulatius]

The last thing we want is Pringles running Russia. He is worse than Putin as far as we know. But as far as coup is concerned, I don’t mind Wagner and the Russian army shooting at each other. It beats Wagner or the Russian army shooting at Ukrainians.

 

The weakness that Wagner coup shows is that a relatively small army of a few thousand can roam for hundreds of kilometers in Russia with very little resistance first and apparently even enjoys some popular support. Even more importantly there was no public resistance. It shows the brittleness of Putins regime. If he falls, it will be quickly and unexpectedly and nobody really will do much to intervene.

Edited June 27, 2023 by Spekulatius

[John Hjorth]

Is this Prizker a member of the family that sold Marmon to Berkshire? Anyways : Here about how to spot an idiot, the relation between idiocy and cruelty, vs. idiocy and kindness, idiots ability even to become elected President etc.

 

Illinois Governor J. B. Pritzker’s “How To Spot An Idiot” at a Northwestern’s graduation.

 

 

 

 

Edited June 27, 2023 by John Hjorth

[gfp]

28 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

Is this Prizker a member a member of the family that sold Marmon to Berkshire?

 

Yes, he is Jay Pritzker's nephew.  Also a billionaire.  His Dad, Donald Pritzker, ran Hyatt for a while. 

[james22]

2 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

I personally think there is lot to the above. And thinking about it in that way is really depressing.

 

Yep. Thanks for sharing.

[John Hjorth]

Thank you, @gfp,

 

I looked it up after your post confimed the connection :

 

Wikipedia : J. B. Pritzker &

Wikipedia : Pritzker family.

 

I personally think there's a lot of truth to that speech. It seems impossible to build a civilized society based on law and order by the use of simple and primitive cruelty, suppressing basic human rights, especially if the population does not care about it, and let everything pass, ref. above.

 

Christ, what a Hellhole Russia has become.

Edited June 27, 2023 by John Hjorth

[Viking]

5 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

“Never underestimate the Russians' willingness to deceive themselves" - tells everything about what decades - or rather centuries of dictatorship do to a population's ability to think independently. In totalitarian regimes, not thinking about politics becomes a way of survival.

 

PS for natural reasons I can't share my friend's name. But he is not in Russia anymore. In fact, virtually none of my Russian friends or acquaintances are. Those who can still think are long gone. They will not give up thinking independently, and then they cannot live in Russia."

@John Hjorth thanks for posting. I do not find it depressing. And that is because Russia is providing the Western world with a real-time teachable moment. Sometimes knowing what you want is as simple as knowing what you don’t want. Russia is quickly devolving into a hellhole. Totalitarian political culture can be a bitch. Blows me away that there are still apologists out there for that regime. 

Edited June 27, 2023 by Viking

[ValueArb]

8 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

Is this Prizker a member of the family that sold Marmon to Berkshire? Anyways : Here about how to spot an idiot, the relation between idiocy and cruelty, vs. idiocy and kindness, idiots ability even to become elected President etc.

 

Illinois Governor J. B. Pritzker’s “How To Spot An Idiot” at a Northwestern’s graduation.

 

 

 

 

Finally a democrat I would not have to hold my nose while voting for.

[Castanza]

Would you want Wagner with the nuke codes? Somehow that’s  even worse than Putin having that control. 
 

Made a point to revisit Dan Carlin this week: His episode on nuclear proliferation has a lot of very insightful information. Not short by any means, but we’ll worth a listen. 
 

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dan-carlins-hardcore-history/id173001861?i=1000380386551

Edited June 27, 2023 by Castanza

[Xerxes]

Fiction or not. An interesting read. 
 

[John Hjorth]

9 hours ago, Castanza said:

Would you want Wagner with the nuke codes? Somehow that’s  even worse than Putin having that control. ...

 

There is already a strong reaction from the Baltic states related to the presence of Russian nuclear warheads in Belarus, combined with information of the presence of Jevgenij Prigozjin in Belarus, too.

 

It's for sure concerning.

[Xerxes]

https://apple.news/Aq5sSRBBETOeo7LmXfVc1fQ

 

RUSSIA HAS REACHED A DEAD END

An indifferent response to a warlord’s march on Moscow heralds the dawning realization that Russia has no good way out in Ukraine.

JUNE 29, 2023

Edited June 29, 2023 by Xerxes

[Xerxes]

From the book, The World for Sale. 
By Javier Blas & Jack Farchy
 

I vividly recall the Qatari-Glencore investment into Rosneft whenever that was in the mid-2010s. 
 

Glencore is currently engaged into take over attempt of the Canadian coal producer Teck Resources. 
 

Perhaps in this new fragmented world, the commodity traders, have a stronger role to play than the last ten years that was underpinned by stability and globalization. 

 

 

[John Hjorth]

@Xerxes,

 

I curse you [J/K], now I need to buy that book, too! 

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Since the war started last year I have been wondering what has happened to that enormous combination of a gas station and construction work in progress called Gazprom and its financing, because there is a lot [many billions of USD] of western financing on the ongoing pipeline constructions. Are these debt obligations being served or what?