Russia-Ukrainian War

[cubsfan]

Sounds like we ought to pack up our toys and let the Europeans and Asians fend for themselves!

[Gregmal]

I mean there’s this common misconception that where you are born in terms of geographic location matters. Really all that matters is whether you are born into wealth or not. If you aren’t, then what? Well we do a great job of selling “the American dream” as an “anyone can do it” thing and it’s great marketing, but the truth is if you work hard and are half intelligent and especially if you can network or build relationships, you’ll do well whether it’s NYC, London, Dubai, Moscow, Hong Kong, etc. I’d even go as far as to say it’s harder than ever to do it in America today with all the institutional gatekeeping. Mandatory college degrees. Useless designations that cost money to acquire like MBAs. Onerous tax system. Cancel culture. Etc. all made in America. 

[Xerxes]

11 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Sounds like we ought to pack up our toys and let the Europeans and Asians fend for themselves!

not at all. Hahaha

it is just a discussion. 

[Dinar]

11 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

I mean there’s this common misconception that where you are born in terms of geographic location matters. Really all that matters is whether you are born into wealth or not. If you aren’t, then what? Well we do a great job of selling “the American dream” as an “anyone can do it” thing and it’s great marketing, but the truth is if you work hard and are half intelligent and especially if you can network or build relationships, you’ll do well whether it’s NYC, London, Dubai, Moscow, Hong Kong, etc. I’d even go as far as to say it’s harder than ever to do it in America today with all the institutional gatekeeping. Mandatory college degrees. Useless designations that cost money to acquire like MBAs. Onerous tax system. Cancel culture. Etc. all made in America. 

Greg, with all due respect, I vehemently disagree.  While the US has numerous problems, it is much easier to build wealth in the US than in Russia.  I know quite a few very hard working and successful people in Russia who had their businesses stolen from them either by criminals or by government officials.   Yes, clearly there is different set of laws applied to Hunter Biden and an average Joe or President Trump, but it cannot be compared to Russia or Venezuela.

[Gregmal]

3 minutes ago, Dinar said:

Greg, with all due respect, I vehemently disagree.  While the US has numerous problems, it is much easier to build wealth in the US than in Russia.  I know quite a few very hard working and successful people in Russia who had their businesses stolen from them either by criminals or by government officials.   Yes, clearly there is different set of laws applied to Hunter Biden and an average Joe or President Trump, but it cannot be compared to Russia or Venezuela.

How do you think this compares, to say the stealth confiscation of one’s freedom and upward mobility through things like hooking people on welfare programs, ridiculous taxes, telling them if they want to be successful the must get degrees that cost hundreds of thousands of dollars that most don’t have and can only acquire through selling their future, and, oh by the way, a real theft, the fact that regardless of where you move, the US government stakes claim to a high percentage of your lifetime earnings solely because of where you were born…a decision no one I am aware of has control over? Which is very subtly a way to discourage people from leaving. 
 

Its just a matter of presentation. Some are brutally forthright about the theft, others hide it better. People bring up someone like Jack Ma. But Jack grew enormously wealthy and then forgot the rules of engagement where he was playing. Same thing we are seeing with Trump now. 

[Viking]

31 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Sounds like we ought to pack up our toys and let the Europeans and Asians fend for themselves!

The incredibly high living standard the US enjoys today is largely the result of the global world order it imposed/built/lead after world war II (with, of course, lots of help along the way from other nations). This positioning allows US companies dominate the world (economically) - China and Russia exempted (perhaps India too). 

 

If the US retreats, the void will simply be filled by China/Russia/totalitarian regimes. Shrinking your empire is never a good choice - it is usually catastrophic. That is, after all, what the Soviet Union did in 1991. Reversing a bad decision is pretty much impossible (Putin is learning that lesson today). 

[cubsfan]

4 minutes ago, Viking said:

The incredibly high living standard the US enjoys today is largely the result of the global world order it imposed/built/lead after world war II (with, of course, lots of help along the way from other nations). This positioning allows US companies dominate the world (economically) - China and Russia exempted (perhaps India too). 

 

If the US retreats, the void will simply be filled by China/Russia/totalitarian regimes. Shrinking your empire is never a good choice - it is usually catastrophic. That is, after all, what the Soviet Union did in 1991. Reversing a bad decision is pretty much impossible (Putin is learning that lesson today). 

 

Couldn't agree more. Don't forget Europe is an even larger beneficiary of international trade.

China exempted themselves with The Great Leap Forward, meanwhile Japan/Korea took off..

 

Russia???   Well..who wants to buy anything from Russia (except oil/resources)

Like they say in Russia "They pretend to pay us, We pretend to work"...  Quite the system..

 

You can hate capitalism, but socialism is a disaster...

[Gregmal]

Government seizing assets. What would we call rent control? Mathematically, the difference between market rate, and government forced rate, can be extracted to an NOI figure. Put a cap rate on the whole thing. Government stole 30-40% of your property.

[Xerxes]

1 hour ago, Viking said:

The incredibly high living standard the US enjoys today is largely the result of the global world order it imposed/built/lead after world war II (with, of course, lots of help along the way from other nations). This positioning allows US companies dominate the world (economically) - China and Russia exempted (perhaps India too). 

 

If the US retreats, the void will simply be filled by China/Russia/totalitarian regimes. Shrinking your empire is never a good choice - it is usually catastrophic. That is, after all, what the Soviet Union did in 1991. Reversing a bad decision is pretty much impossible (Putin is learning that lesson today). 

In 1946, United States reigned supreme militarily and economically, relative to the rest of the world. 
 

today in absolute sense, United States is far better place economically that it was in 1946. Its military unmatched in a great power contest, but in relative global sense the United States has been in relative decline since 1946, compared to the rise of Asia etc. And there is nothing one can do about it. Just good ‘old reversion back to the mean. 
 

That is just China and the rest of Asia catching up to their economic potential from a low economic base on the back of their large population. And I think that should be celebrated. The fact that the rest of the world will be enjoying higher standards of living is great thing net-net for humanity as oppose being concerned about the potential of US economic global domination being eclipsed. And that not everyone is going to like Mikey Mouse. 
 

In any case, these two notions ought not to be a zero sum game or mutually exclusive.
 

If the great power of today cannot adapt they will be swept aside. Nothing last forever. 

Edited June 20, 2023 by Xerxes

[Dinar]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

How do you think this compares, to say the stealth confiscation of one’s freedom and upward mobility through things like hooking people on welfare programs, ridiculous taxes, telling them if they want to be successful the must get degrees that cost hundreds of thousands of dollars that most don’t have and can only acquire through selling their future, and, oh by the way, a real theft, the fact that regardless of where you move, the US government stakes claim to a high percentage of your lifetime earnings solely because of where you were born…a decision no one I am aware of has control over? Which is very subtly a way to discourage people from leaving. 
 

Its just a matter of presentation. Some are brutally forthright about the theft, others hide it better. People bring up someone like Jack Ma. But Jack grew enormously wealthy and then forgot the rules of engagement where he was playing. Same thing we are seeing with Trump now. 

Good points, and yes, social programs are like a drug.

[John Hjorth]

Here is how civilized nations behave during territorial disputes and how "war" is conducted around it :

 

Between 1973 and 2022, Denmark had an ongoing and unresolved territorial conflict with Canada.

 

Wkipedia : Hans Island

Wikipedia : Whisky War

Youtube : The Canadian - Danish Conflict

 

To me, it has a lot more appeal to fight using flags and alcoholic beverages [here : Canadian Whisky and Danish Snaps]!

 

 

 

 

 

[lnofeisone]

On 6/19/2023 at 1:11 PM, shhughes1116 said:

In World War II, the Germans built the Atlantic Wall, starting in earnest around 1942.  They put over 6.5 million mines in front of the wall, and built almost 15,000 concrete fortifications along the Channel and Atlantic coast.  This was in addition to other non-concrete emplacements and other obstacles erected along beaches and in fields that could be used for landing gliders.  Fortunately for the Allies, these fortifications were mostly occupied by static divisions comprised of “volunteers”, older troops, and others with wounds that prevented them from serving in maneuver units.  The supporting mechanized units were too far removed from the beaches to have an immediate impact, and when mobilized to stem a breakthrough, they were exposed to withering CAS and artillery fire.   Once the lines finally cracked with Operation Cobra, the German mobile reserves were expended/wastes in Falaise and it was a race for the Allies to the Seine and beyond.  
 

we are seeing something similar play out in Southern Ukraine.  Russia has erected numerous field fortifications and protected them with deep minefields.  Unfortunately for Russia, these fortifications and trenches are manned by mobiks - static units with almost zero organic transport, and no training to fire and maneuver.  When the Russians are forced to bring up their reserves - a handful of VDV units - they are exposed to drone attacks and artillery fire.  I think in the next few weeks, we will see cracks in the Russian line.  The Russians will be forced to deploy their reserves, at which point the Ukrainians will deploy their remaining brigades for a culminating fight.  
 

The outcome of that fight will determine whether the Ukrainians can race to the Sea of Azov and cut the land-bridge, or have to call off the counter-offensive.  
 

 

You've called a lot of things in Ukraine spot on. I'm curious to know what your thoughts are on the Russian deployment of helicopters to take out Ukrainian armor formations. It made sense for Russia to bench these on the offense after they lost a bunch but now this looks looks like a perfect setup for KA52s. They seem to be sitting 10kms out so they can't be hit with MANPADs and long-range AA is just too far. 

[Xerxes]

23 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

Here is how civilized nations behave during territorial disputes and how "war" is conducted around it :

 

Between 1973 and 2022, Denmark had an ongoing and unresolved territorial conflict with Canada.

 

Wkipedia : Hans Island

Wikipedia : Whisky War

Youtube : The Canadian - Danish Conflict

 

To me, it has a lot more appeal to fight using flags and alcoholic beverages [here : Canadian Whisky and Danish Snaps]!

 

 

 

 

 

 

I recall few years ago, Norway “donated” one of its many many high peaks to its neighbour who was otherwise barren of any high peaks. (don’t remember if it was Finland or Sweden). I thought that was nice. 

 

Unrelated:

 

i am curious John. What are your thoughts about Greenland seeking full independence from Denmark. 
 

 

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, lnofeisone said:

You've called a lot of things in Ukraine spot on. I'm curious to know what your thoughts are on the Russian deployment of helicopters to take out Ukrainian armor formations. It made sense for Russia to bench these on the offense after they lost a bunch but now this looks looks like a perfect setup for KA52s. They seem to be sitting 10kms out so they can't be hit with MANPADs and long-range AA is just too far. 

These helicopters fire unguided missiles? They are unlikely to hit tanks so far out. I think they are basically used for crude artillery bombardment.

 

5 of them were shot down recently as well, allegedly.

[lnofeisone]

10 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

These helicopters fire unguided missiles? They are unlikely to hit tanks so far out. I think they are basically used for crude artillery bombardment.

 

5 of them were shot down recently as well, allegedly.

KA-the 52 can and mostly shoots guided munitions including Vikhr which is laser-guided. The problem they face is mostly having to hover for up to a minute because they are so far out and the missile needs to ride the beam to target. 

[John Hjorth]

Thanks for asking, @Xerxes,

 

And certainly a strategically important issue with what's going on in in the whole Arctic Area. It's like a barrel of powder.

 

My personal stance is that the Greenlandic people have to decide for themselves, otherwise, the rest of Denmark, called Southern Denmark, behaves like any other state with imperialist propencities.

 

But there is a catch. No "Block subsidy" from Southern Denmark to Greenland, if Greenland wants its own independepence. That number is around DKK 72,000 per Greenlandic capita right now, about DKK 4 B.

 

So : "Now grow up, or now go grow a brain!"- You can't have the best part of both ways by cherry picking.

 

Source : Sermitsiaq .

 

My personal perception of such alternative is, that under such alternative, the Greenlandic society would start backsliding into its past, where it came from. That may be a wrong perception.

 

USA is already in fact also helping a lot to keep things at the place up, by running the Pituffik Air Base, formerly known as Thule Air Base, thereby pumping a lot of money into the Greenlandic economy.

[Xerxes]

16 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

 

But there is a catch. No "Block subsidy" from Southern Denmark to Greenland, if Greenland wants its own independepence. That number is around DKK 72,000 per Greenlandic capita right now, about DKK 4 B.

 

So : "Now grow up, or now go grow a brain!"- You can't have the best part of both ways by cherry picking.

 

100%. Cannot have it both ways. 

[John Hjorth]

What I wrote above is also the official answer from Denmark to the former POTUS, when he suggested USA to acquire Greenland in like "it's just another real estate deal", and afterwards my PM Mette Frederiksen had a hard time afterwards defending her initial reponse blown out by the press all over, because it was impulsive, as if she was saying "get away from me!", after this ol' man was hitting on her! 

 

But as mentioned : With an internal catch.

 

And now we are full circle, if it's true she is a candidate for the next NATO Sectary General.

 

 

[shhughes1116]

On 6/20/2023 at 10:13 AM, cubsfan said:

 
Interesting/good input. Do you think the Russians can be expelled from Eastern Ukraine? Or are we destined for a stalemate whereby Crimea is conceded in order to return the East?

 

I do think Ukraine is capable of expelling Russia from Eastern Ukraine, Southern Ukraine, and Crimea, provided military support from the West continues.  But I question whether they have the political will to tolerate the level of causalities needed to sustain that effort across Southern Ukraine, Eastern Ukraine, and Crimea.  

 

If they liberate Crimea, what are they really liberating?  What is left of Ukraine in Crimea?  It is mainly Russian colonizers.  Do the Ukrainians really want to die for that when they can just turn off the water supply, drop the bridge, and watch Crimea wither away?   

 

Aside from Donetsk, there are large parts of Eastern Ukraine that still have Ukrainians present.  There is a reason to liberate those areas. 

 

Liberating Southern Ukraine and strangling Crimea puts Ukraine in a good position to make a grand bargain with Russia.  Concede Crimea to Russia in return for Russia leaving Eastern Ukraine.    Whether or not Russia would entertain this proposal is another question, and it sets a pretty terrible precedent for future "occupations".   

 

I still think it is possible that the Russian units in Southern Ukraine crack and rout.  If that's the case, I could see a Ukranian thunder-run via the Isthmus to Kerch.  If that happens, then I think Ukraine will fight for Eastern Ukraine rather than negotiate.      

 

 

 

[shhughes1116]

3 hours ago, lnofeisone said:

You've called a lot of things in Ukraine spot on. I'm curious to know what your thoughts are on the Russian deployment of helicopters to take out Ukrainian armor formations. It made sense for Russia to bench these on the offense after they lost a bunch but now this looks looks like a perfect setup for KA52s. They seem to be sitting 10kms out so they can't be hit with MANPADs and long-range AA is just too far. 

 

The Russians have a long line of fortifications protected by minefields.  But the mobik units have little or no ATGM capability, little or no organic armor or IFVs, and the Russian's mobile reserves and artillery are inadequate to support multiple parts of the line at the same time.   So the Alligators are used like a fire-fighting brigade - they are deploying the Alligators to compensate for lack of ATGMs along the line, and a lack of an armored reserve.   Drones spot Ukrainian armor columns and the Alligators show up in an effort to slow down or stop the column before it reaches the fortification line.  The Alligators mainly use guided munitions, so they can stand-off 5-10km and do this.  The older Russian helicopters use unguided rockets which are not suited for this application.  

 

Here are the problem that the Russians will have. 

1. The Alligator is a pretty good helicopter, but they have a limited number of Alligators.  Many have been shot down over the last year, and the remainder have been poorly maintained.  They will not be able to sustain this level of operations for a long period of time.

2. They consume a lot of fuel which comes via rail.  Lots of rail lines have been blown up recently.  Lack of fuel will make it hard to sustain this level of operations. 

3. Ukraine will adapt, either with Western 4th-gen fighters (future),or sending SOF into the Russian rear with MANPADS to start shooting down helicopters. 

 

By poking at multiple parts of the line in Southern Ukraine, Ukraine is forcing Russia to bring its maneuver units and aviation lose to the front line.  This exposes them to MANPADS, drone strikes and artillery fire, and starts to attrit them.  If and when the line cracks, the units that would have been deployed to stem the breach, or that would have been deployed to facilitate a fighting withdrawal, will be of little value.  Once the Ukrainians are into the rear, Mobiks along the line of fortifications will be stuck in place, and will likely die in place or surrender.    

 

 

[cubsfan]

@shhughes1116  Thanks for the terrific input. Regarding Crimea - do you consider the entire population pro-Russian? Have most all pro-Ukrainian's left for good?

[Spekulatius]

Interesting interview with Dimitry Muratov. I like the comment on the price of V and Z themed T- Shirts in Russia.

 

Sounds like young people in Russia are against the war, older people are for it and support Putin. Maybe more people should eat their own cooking.

Edited June 21, 2023 by Spekulatius

[shhughes1116]

15 hours ago, cubsfan said:

@shhughes1116  Thanks for the terrific input. Regarding Crimea - do you consider the entire population pro-Russian? Have most all pro-Ukrainian's left for good?

That’s a good question and one that I think is unanswerable at the moment with any level of confidence.  
 

I’m sure there are still some pro-Ukrainian people in Crimea, along with some people that support an independent state for Crimean Tatars.  Heck, there are probably people that were pro-Russian that have now become pro-Ukrainian.  But the consequences of speaking freely and publicly in areas occupied by Russia mean that we will never really know what the current “residents” of Crimea think.  

[cubsfan]

I thought these were  pretty good articles regarding the difficulty the Ukrainians seem to be experiencing with their offensive.  Looks like I'm gonna have to eat my words about the impact of technology making the difference. 

 

https://sputnikglobe.com/20230612/cynical-ukrainian-counteroffensive-takes-horrific-casualties-1111076303.html

 

https://amgreatness.com/2023/06/22/the-end-of-offensive-warfare/

 

 

[changegonnacome]

It’s artillery, economy & the number of male bodies you can put through the meat grinder here that matters most.

 

Population - Russia has Ukraine beat what 5 to 1 on the population piece and I don’t see a commitment where ‘we’ would be sending any of our young men to die.

 

Artillery - Russia is the master of its own destiny here….Ukraine not so much….id rather be Russia here.

 

Economy - like it or not Russia has a self-sustaining economy with petro dollars….Ukraine is on life support & completely reliant on the kindness of strangers.

 

I hate what Russia has done - but you ask me what position I’d like to be in across the above criteria - you would ask for the Russian set of cards every day of the week.