Russia-Ukrainian War

[james22]

13 hours ago, Dinar said:

Yes, Russia has been a paper tiger for decades.

 

Who knew? They've nukes and acted as a tiger. 

 

And why do you believe European countries are now, after Russian weakness has been exposed, increasing their defense budgets?

 

By your logic they'd think the threat diminished. LOL

 

13 hours ago, Dinar said:

By the way, how did you get your estimate of Pentagon spending $100-150bn per annum on the Russian threat?

 

If we divide out the US defense budget to the threats it faces, Russia would perhaps be of the order of $100bn-150bn in spend-to-threat.

 

https://cepa.org/article/its-costing-peanuts-for-the-us-to-defeat-russia/

[no_free_lunch]

Ukraine is able to hold Russia off due to the weapons inflow from the west combined with their own bravery.  You remove either one of those and it would be over.  Support is definitely still needed.

[cubsfan]

2 hours ago, no_free_lunch said:

Ukraine is able to hold Russia off due to the weapons inflow from the west combined with their own bravery.  You remove either one of those and it would be over.  Support is definitely still needed.

 

And it's well worth it, when you consider the huge sums of money the USA has wasted the last few years - passing $1T packages full of pork. No loss of life to protect the future of Europe. 

 

Makes all the sense in the world.

 

It would have made much more sense to do it on the front end - but then Obama was President - and he figured he'll just send them blankets. And many of the

Europeans had their heads up their ass too..

Edited February 19, 2023 by cubsfan

[Spekulatius]

On 2/18/2023 at 5:34 PM, cubsfan said:

Once Putin is finished emptying out Russian prisons, then what?

 

 

 

 

I think Russia will find a way to refill the prisons and a prison sentence will be just a detour to the frontline for those prisoners.

[John Hjorth]

Amazing speech by Vladimir Putin on Danish TV, started today at 10:00 AM my local time, with simultaneous translation from Russian language.

 

A wild experience. The persecuted innocent.

 

And what to think about all all those promises to the Russian citizens - I think he only forgot to promise more tailwinds to all on Russian bicycle paths.

[Spekulatius]

4 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

Amazing speech by Vladimir Putin on Danish TV, started today at 10:00 AM my local time, with simultaneous translation from Russian language.

 

A wild experience. The persecuted innocent.

 

And what to think about all all those promises to the Russian citizens - I think he only forgot to promise more tailwinds to all on Russian bicycle paths.

He is digging in for the long haul and so should we. Then he adds a bit nuclear saber rattling because that's really all he has left to threaten the west. Same old really.

 

Bullish for defense stocks, I think.

[Xerxes]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

He is digging in for the long haul and so should we. Then he adds a bit nuclear saber rattling because that's really all he has left to threaten the west. Same old really.

 

Bullish for defense stocks, I think.

 

The traditional high-tech A&D (21st century war hardware) will do ok, but there is a lag time between budget, orders etc. 

 

EDIT: I should add that defense contractors will/are probably feel the squeeze on their fixed-contract Government deliveries as inflation cuts their margin. See Northrop Grumman and B-21.
 

However given that Russia is forcing NATO to fight a 20th century type of war in 21st century, I think a better bet is a broader directional bet on the old economy, industrial, raw material. Even if the war ends tomorrow the replenishment of ammunitions, shells, spare will take years and years. 

 

 

Edited February 21, 2023 by Xerxes

[Xerxes]

1 year anniversary AW cover page. 
 

[Xerxes]

4 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

Amazing speech by Vladimir Putin on Danish TV, started today at 10:00 AM my local time, with simultaneous translation from Russian language.

 

A wild experience. The persecuted innocent.

 

And what to think about all all those promises to the Russian citizens - I think he only forgot to promise more tailwinds to all on Russian bicycle paths.

 

[John Hjorth]

Obviously nothing new in that speech for those persons in your screenshot post, @Xerxes [  ],

 

I specifically noted Alexey Miller, CEO of Gazprom PJSC, among the audience. Man, it's absolutely crazy what has happened to him and his appearance within very few years. 61 years old now and looks like something dragged in the front door by the cat.

 

Perhaps it's lack of sleep related to that the shares in one of the most material Gazprom subs are posted as collateral for provided European financing of parts of the ongoing build-out of the Gazprom gas network, and the cash flow from operating the existing and operational pipeline network can't service the existing debt any longer.

 

I haven't read as much as one piece anywhere about the above issue since the war started, by the way.

Edited February 21, 2023 by John Hjorth

[UK]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/wagners-prigozhin-accuses-russian-top-brass-treason-2023-02-21/

 

Apparently angry, and speaking at times with a raised voice, Prigozhin blamed Russia's Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov, the country's most senior soldier, of deliberately causing the arms shortages, which he said were causing heightened losses among Wagner troops fighting around Bakhmut. "The chief of the general staff and the defence minister are giving orders right and left not just not to give Wagner PMC ammunition, but not to help it with air transport," Prigozhin said. Prigozhin has for months criticised senior commanders for what he has called their incompetence. Prigozhin has said that the defence ministry is trying to take credit for Wagner successes around the Donetsk region town of Bakhmut.

 

Edited February 21, 2023 by UK

[Gregmal]

I chuckled at the Chinese response to the US in regards to aiding Russia. I guess the US is the only one who gets to takes sides and then meddle in it? If we are playing this stupid game then so will others. In other words, as long as the meddling continues, so will the war. 

[cubsfan]

Pick your side. This promises to be a war of attrition. Russia will get outspent, Ukraine destroyed.

We'll just end up with another North & South Korea for years. 

[Gregmal]

16 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Pick your side. This promises to be a war of attrition. Russia will get outspent, Ukraine destroyed.

We'll just end up with another North & South Korea for years. 

Yea I guess. It’s unfortunate but reality.

[boilermaker75]

2 hours ago, Xerxes said:

 

 

I see some more suicides coming.

[cubsfan]

41 minutes ago, boilermaker75 said:

 

I see some more suicides coming.

Oh shit...so right..LOL

[John Hjorth]

3 hours ago, cubsfan said:

Pick your side. This promises to be a war of attrition. Russia will get outspent, Ukraine destroyed.

We'll just end up with another North & South Korea for years. 

 

Mike [ @cubsfan],

 

I think this is the most cynical post from you I've ever read so far from you here on CoBF.

 

I sincerely hope you're not right.

 

Personally, I think the determination among European states for this not to happen is greatly underrated. It is about our western way of life, based on basic values shared among others - here, among European people and people living in North America.

 

Personally, I also think all my fellow american CoBF members could - and should - be proud to have the president you all have on a day like this with the awesome speech he gave today in Warsaw.

[cubsfan]

^^^ You may misunderstand me John. My post is totally serious and not made in sarcasm.

I am in favor of arming Ukraine with American weapons (I've said it many times). Russia can be outspent by the Alliance of Europe & the USA. Ukraine will fight bravely, as they have.

It's unfortunate the USA & Europe let this go way, way too far, when the roots of the problem go back to 2008...with Russian aggressions in Georgia.

 

But much of the East Ukraine will be destroyed (already has been). Crimea is primarily Russian. Some of the Eastern regions of Ukraine have many Russians.  I honestly think Ukraine will end up looking 

like North/South Korea.  East/West Ukraine - with a DMZ to protect West Ukraine & Europe.

 

I see a stalemate. Not the best outcome - but face saving for Putin - and safety for the rest of Europe. I hope you are able to remove him entirely from Ukraine, I just don't think it's gonna happen.

 

RE: Biden - he's a total loser, with no courage. Corrupt & Weak beyond belief. The Ukraine issue

could have been settled back in 2014, when loser Obama allowed Putin to take Crimea and did nothing to arm the Ukraine against further aggression. This would not have happen with Trump. And of course, France & German leaders share a huge amount of the blame for doing NOTHING as the leaders of Europe back in 2014. Putin walked all over Europe & Obama. Totally self inflicted wounds.

 

Now you have an enormous mess.

 

Peace John.

[SharperDingaan]

There will eventually be a settlement, but not for a while yet.

Most would expect both Prigozhin and Putin in a box, along with more suicides, and a sudden rash of skydiving amongst senior Wagner members. Wagner is already being strangled, and losing. Putin fails to win the war, and he cannot be allowed to live; the nation needs a martyr.

 

This is another Russian Afghanistan, but this time against western weapons, and right on their border. They cannot sustain it, but sadly - until all the old generals are dead (Belarus), a lot more people are going to die.

 

SD

 

  

[John Hjorth]

Mike [ @cubsfan],

 

Thank you for elaborating your personal position on this calamity here.

 

Yes, simply put: Christ, how have we as Europeans screwed up on handling this matter over time, looking at the state of the mess as of now. It's indeed very hard to see a sustainable way forward through this whole mess.

 

However the first step may be very clear for everyone: The loss of lives on both sides has to stop immediately, meaning now. If the opponent disagrees, remove him by use of deadly force, and based on simple logic.

 

Some times it happens things just stinks:

 

Until recently, I have been a fan of our former prime minister [In Danish : "Statsminister", translates to "state minister"] Anders Fogh Rasmussen [While PM, also head of EU under the expansion of EU to the east in 2003] [Link to speech : Never war in Europe again ], after those assignments, 2009 - 2014 Secretary General of NATO.

 

And today : Why even think about i.e. letting a S&P500 company "disturb" in your doings, based on say - its international security matters - when you have the opportunity to bill [dearly] a state in stead, represented by Volodymyr Zelenskyy. [Please see Rasmussen Global]. [Here : Getting paid now trying fix own doings in the past?]

[no_free_lunch]

I did not listen to the putin speech today but did read highlights.  It is notable for things that did not happen. No general mobilization,  no declaration of war, status quo more or less. 

 

The half committed nature of the whole thing is perhaps telling, there must not be as much support at home as the pumpers would suggest.   Surely if he really wanted to win this there would be stronger rhetoric and commitment. As is, they will lose this over time.  I think RU holds Crimea and probably the other ore 2022 breakaway areas but eventually loses the other gains.

 

I caught one quote from putin about the importance of private markets and that they played a role in buttressing Russias economy over the past year.  I assume this is a pitch to RU investors that the water is fine and they won't be nationalized.  However it also ties into my prior point that perhaps the options here are limited for Putin.

 

I feel if the west can keep their resolve then Russia will strangle itself on this effort while in the West what, maybe our taxes go up by 0.5%.  Meh, I can take it.

Edited February 22, 2023 by no_free_lunch

[Ulti]

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/02/27/as-ukraine-marks-a-grim-anniversary-what-has-vladimir-putin-achieved

[Xerxes]

The globalists and the "war party" needs to address this very soon ... 

 

 

[Xerxes]

Fareed asks a very relevant question:  with the exception of unconditional surrenders in the Second World War 1939-45* most wars ends in negotiation and settlement. I think I made that comment six months ago.

 

* or perhaps 1937-45 if you are Chinese, but hey ! who cares, we care when it affects us so 1939 it is ...

 

Sullivan answer, which is script that repeated by all administration:

- This is Putin's war

- War of Choice

- It could end tomorrow

 

No shit Sherlock ! We know that.

That was not the question ... was it ? 

 

 

Fareed interview with NY Times on their most recent article

One Year Into War, Putin Is Crafting the Russia He Craves - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

The West Tried to Isolate Russia. It Didn’t Work. - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

 

 

[Xerxes]

On 2/21/2023 at 10:13 AM, Xerxes said:

 

The traditional high-tech A&D (21st century war hardware) will do ok, but there is a lag time between budget, orders etc. 

 

EDIT: I should add that defense contractors will/are probably feel the squeeze on their fixed-contract Government deliveries as inflation cuts their margin. See Northrop Grumman and B-21.
 

However given that Russia is forcing NATO to fight a 20th century type of war in 21st century, I think a better bet is a broader directional bet on the old economy, industrial, raw material. Even if the war ends tomorrow the replenishment of ammunitions, shells, spare will take years and years. 

 

 

 

In regards to my comment about major defense contractors