Russia-Ukrainian War

[james22]

Putin has called the collapse of the Soviet empire “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.”

 

Pretty sure we can assume its reconstitution his aim, rather than defense against a threatening (LOL) NATO.

[Xerxes]

41 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

Putin’s failed coup in Ukraine reminds me a bit of the failed German coup in Norway in April 1940. Of course the Germans ended up taking control of Norway, just as Putin can end up in physical control of Ukraine if he is willing to take the necessary steps and pay the price. But Hitler had wanted the same kind of clean coup in Norway that he had achieved in Denmark — the King and royal family held hostage and a formal surrender from the legitimate government, with no exile government or forces.

 

He didn’t get that because the Norwegian resistance was unexpectedly strong, and one cranky old officer on the verge of retirement and a bunch of raw 18-year-old conscripts managed to sink one battlecruiser and put another out of action, incidentally drowning the 1000-man special forces team that had been assigned to capture the King, Parliament, and treasury. By throwing the German schedule off by six hours and losing the element of surprise, all of those targets got away and eventually made their way to London where they set up an effective government in exile. The Nazis had to do with a makeshift puppet regime headed by the nutjob* Quisling, who had very little credibility with the Norwegians or anybody else.

 

https://instapundit.com/505936/

OMG amazing. 
You can also see that scene with the old battery in the movie “king’ choice” on Prime. 
 

edit: it was not a battle cruiser though as per this article. Blucher was a heavy cruiser. 
 

Royal Navy was the only navy that operated battle-cruisers at that time 

Edited March 17, 2022 by Xerxes

[no_free_lunch]

25 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Yeah I agree the contested territories (Crimea etc.), the ones where effectively a war has been going on since 2014 will be annexed and officially handed over (or shared) in the peace deal being negotiated right now. I would also say just from a domestic Russian PR perspective, the mothers of Russia in exchange for their sons coming back in body bags, need to see some land won in exchange. So were in agreement here and I said the same some threads back.

 

However the idea that Putin is attempting to invade, capture & occupy the other 95% of Ukraine is the part I disagree with strongly and just isn't the case & for which I see the media constantly spin the narrative about invasion, caputure & occupation as if this is Poland in 1945 or something. It isnt.

 

I cant remember the name of the General who was on CNN who spoke exactly to this point, that Putin's army amassed as it was around Ukraine is/was too small to be an occupying force......it is effectively a demolition crew.....his example he gave was when he was in Afghanistan he took a city with 100,000 men at his command, occupied the local government buildings and called his commander to tell him - "hey listen we took the city with 100k men, thats the good news, to occupy & hold the city we'll need 300,000 more men". This is the kind of military math that anyone who studies these things can see.

 

The generals point is my one too - 190,000 Russian troops amassed as they were tell you by military math the fact that Putin/Russia never intended to invade, capture & occupy the whole of Ukraine...........but this idea floating around in the media and on this board that he was heading to Kiev to occupy government buildings and stay there forever forever is just flat out wrong & the facts back it up. But alas the facts don't fit the narrative & that gets a-lot of peoples backs up, which I understand.

They have Kiev half encircled. They hold the Chernobyl power plant. They are attacking karkhov.  In the south they are attacking Mykolaiv.  These are not part of the separatist states or Crimea.  This is just the facts not any kind of spin.  Putin's most clearly stated goal initially was the de militarization and regime change of Ukraine, at least that was the propaganda I saw early on.   Lot more than NATO going on here.

[Xerxes]

“If it is victory, than it will tastes bitter as defeat”

 

who said that in what movie ?I don’t remember anymore. 

A Pyrrhic victory it will be for Moscow. The de-militarization objective itself will end up de-fanging it own military instead. The Ukrainian can remove the statement from the constitution (I think I heard somewhere that is on their constitution) about NATO aspiration (it will be an inside joke that it is the cost of Putin’ off-ramp.

 

now looking past this event, the crystal ball turns blurry. The Economist calls it full StaliniZation, what comes out of that is anyone’ guess. 
 

[changegonnacome]

32 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:

They have Kiev half encircled. They hold the Chernobyl power plant. They are attacking karkhov.  In the south they are attacking Mykolaiv.  These are not part of the separatist states or Crimea.  This is just the facts not any kind of spin.

I’m not saying they aren’t there bombing these places in ‘core’ Ukraine and reigning terror down but the purpose of this is to bend Ukraine to Russia’s demands not to occupy ……so let’s be clear what I’m saying….… I’m saying that a military force of 190,000 men is just not structurally capable of invading AND capturing AND then occupying & holding on a permanent basis a country the size of Ukraine or even the city the size of Kiev. You can perhaps do one and half of those three with 190,000 men but you can’t get number three done, not by a long shot. 

 

So what do we do with this fact, in light of the media narrative that he wants the “whole” of Ukraine back into mother USSR and he’s going to take over the whole country and make it Russia again ……well as I’ve said….you have to completely throw out that theory that Putin/Russia ever intended to take over the whole of Ukraine and occupy it on a long term basis because that idea doesn’t stand up to the evidence or the facts. The evidence of course being provided by US military intelligence which is where the 190,000 figure comes from.   

 

[james22]

Or (say the evidence and facts) he fucked up (overestimated his capabilities, underestimated the Ukrainians).

[cubsfan]

^^ James - don't beat your head against the wall with this guy. He's got all the "facts" cast in concrete.

There is no other reasonable explanation. You too need to go back to repeat geography and history.

 

Obviously, you just don't get it.

[changegonnacome]

8 hours ago, james22 said:

Or (say the evidence and facts) he fucked up (overestimated his capabilities, underestimated the Ukrainians).

 

Yep agree thats the other explanation.......but the unlikely one IMO.....the plebe year in West Point (freshman intake) could tell you 190k men isn't enough to occupy a city the size of Kiev let alone the country of Ukraine.

 

Now maybe Putin has scared his Generals so much that nobody had the courage to point this out to him and therefore all his Generals knew this but Putin was oblivious to first year level military math, so yeah thats possible but again unlikely i think. 

 

I do think the Ukranian resistance surprised them & for sure has slowed progress.......but lets also be clear that from reports Ukraine is in the negotiating room right now essentially conceding to the demands Putin had BEFORE the invasion & really his demands have been pretty consistent for the last decade (Annexxed regions + No NATO) . So yes slower progress for the Russians, an element of under estimation of Ukrainian resistance for sure & the economic cost I think is way higher than Putin probably estimated.........however he will get his demands IMO.

 

The question then is whether the exercise cost too much economically, militarily & politically......but if you ascribe to my view, that NATO/EU/USA encroachment into Ukraine was an existential threat to Russia, then Putin would argue no cost is too high when mother Russia faced an existential threat. The same way JFK would argue almost bringing the world to the brink of a nuclear fallout in 1962 to get Russian missiles out of Cuba was also 'worth it' because this was an existential threat to America. You can argue Russia had nothing to fear from NATO/EU expansion & therefore Putin's existentialist threat fears are unfounded but you know he is the undisputed autocrat of that country so his opinion right or wrong matters.

Edited March 17, 2022 by changegonnacome

[Spekulatius]

@changegonnacome has a point. Putins force is too small to occupy Ukraine if they put in resistance.  They have 150k, maybe 200k soldiers against 15 Million people. That's a 100:1 ratio and really does not work.

I think the plan may have changed from Blitzkrieg & install puppet regime to totally destroy Ukraine and such neutralize it that way.

 

Now going back to history, how well has it worked out to  make your neighboring country hate you by its guts?. Let's say Ukraine signs a neutrality contract or puts it in it's constitution. How much is that really worth? We don't have to go back all that long in history to find out. It's just a matter of time, until Ukraine will align themselves with any enemy of Russia as soon as it will be opportune to do so. If so, what has Putin gained?

 

Countries don't keep peaceful relations because they underwrite a piece of paper, they do so because it is beneficial to them and they develop friendly relations, trade etc.

 

Again a giant miscalculation of Putin imo, due to his imperialistic world view.

Edited March 17, 2022 by Spekulatius

[Gregmal]

Yea I think you guys are getting a little carried away. I tend to agree with the rational @changegonnacome puts forth in terms of the logic to the events unfolding. Then again I also stunned myself in finding modest agreement with Bernie and AOC in regards to the role of American imperialism in all this...so who knows. Such are the perils of independent thinking. 

[Xerxes]

Putin didn’t even want to annex those newly declared people’ republic of Donbas from few weeks ago. For those of you who have been following the events in Georgia in 2008, you would know that after 14 years, those people’s republic of Abkhazia and the other one seized from Georgia were still not annexed to this day. 
 

the reason is probably more economics, Kremlin wants defacto control and not dejure control. I.e in full control but not in name. 
 

only Crimea was the exception to the norm given its strategic location and history. And Russia was already in Sevastopol. 

I know the “Putin wants to restore USSR” gets thrown out a lot. I would say that he wants the same thing every Russian ruler (Tsar or Communist) wanted: a series of buffer states separating it and the West. This is not new just happens to be front and centre on Western media these days. 

 

Edited March 17, 2022 by Xerxes

[no_free_lunch]

Change,

 

The US invasion of Iraq had 300k troops.  This invasion has 190k Russia troops + 40k or more from Donetsk.  So 230k.  Then factor in that the US had support troops included in their numbers while much of Russia support can remain in Russia. So the numbers are not far fetched at all.

 

There is also the in your face that the troops are attacking all those areas I mentioned outside of Crimea and Donetsk.  You didn't really address that at all.  If they were not planning to take it then why attack it?

 

Xerxes, they may want an independent puppet government. I don't see your point.  Same thing, not a democracy and Russia does what it wants. 

 

[Xerxes]

I was just suggesting that Ukraine would have been (the eastern portion) as a series protectorates, buffer states, DMZ but no direct annexation (except in Crimea) as a province. 
 

So a broken country in a state of perpetual chaos and in-fighting where the Ukrainian identity slowly would have eroded with time. 
 

I dont think you need as much Russian troops to occupy a broken state that has splintered into fiefdoms (all vying for Moscow’ blessing) than you would if you were occupying a single identity-nation. 
 

but yeah not a democracy, just a series of buffer states 

[Pelagic]

More evidence Putin likely sees his position as pot committed. Their intelligence was wrong and a quick regime change isn't in the cards but to back down now means regional hegemony slips away for good. If Russian forces can't succeed in Ukraine, or at least exit with a show of strength on favorable terms, Russian influence in the region falls into question. I worry Russia takes a page from the American playbook and conducts their version of Operation Linebacker II in order to secure better terms and exit with a demonstration of Russian military might.

 

I think that's also a concern shared by the US and NATO hence the rush to bolster Ukraine's air defense systems - in addition to the tactical advantage they'll give Ukraine in the conflict. Counter battery artillery systems and things like the switchblade drones to target artillery will go a long way toward muting Russian capabilities of massed artillery and aerial bombing to pound Ukraine into agreeing to more favorable terms. NATO's goal now is to lessen Russia's tactical capabilities enough that Ukraine doesn't make a major strategic concession in negotiations. 

 

 

[cubsfan]

6 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Yea I think you guys are getting a little carried away. I tend to agree with the rational @changegonnacome puts forth in terms of the logic to the events unfolding. Then again I also stunned myself in finding modest agreement with Bernie and AOC in regards to the role of American imperialism in all this...so who knows. Such are the perils of independent thinking. 

I don't think this has too much to do with American imperialism - but more an opportunistic Putin.

Putin had Europe over a fucking barrel because of energy. This guy is no dummy. So the Europeans give up

their energy independence to the Russians in the name of climate change. Bad, bad move. Now you're fucked

if the dictator makes a move. It was obvious the Europeans were scared of their situation and NOT united 

AT ALL against Putin's coming moves. This guy is smart and can sense weakness.

 

Then you add in the fact that the US is run by a corrupt clown that totally fucked up Afghanistan.

So your primary worry - Trump is gone. Would Putin have made a move against Trump? No fucking way.

But Biden just opened the door for Putin's move with a total humiliation of the US Armed Forces.

Is Biden gonna want to get involved in another disaster? Not very likely. He's got disaster after disaster at home..

 

So for Putin - it's now or never. Nothing to do with joining NATO, etc.  

 

It's much simpler - you see Europe in disarray, and the mighty, mighty US run by a clown who created his own shit-show.

 

So today is the day to make your move on Ukraine. I don't think it's any more complicated than that.

[Spekulatius]

Uzbekistan going against the big kahuna is a big loss for Putin.

On another note CNN has a good article on the air superiority and why Russia may have failed. Denying Russia air superiority is critically important, because this enables the Ukraine to use Drones and puts their troops and forces under less risk to get destroyed from the air. The fact alone that Russia has not achieved this is remarkable and in my opinion, NATO should revise their stance on not using a no fly zone option if Ukraine gets overwhelmed in the air. I think the long range anti aircraft missiles that the UK and others are delivering may help on that end as well.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/17/europe/air-superiority-ukraine-russia-intl-cmd/index.html

 

@cubsfan you have no way of knowing what Putin may or may not have done, if Trump were in power. Blaming the invasion on Biden is a political play and speculative at best. It seems that all Presidents starting with Obama (and perhaps even before that) have done many mistakes as far as the Russian are concerned, including Trump.

Edited March 17, 2022 by Spekulatius

[cubsfan]

^^^ Certainly, Putin was terrified of Trump. He knew Obama was a pussy and a pushover with his phony red lines.

 

All the convincing Putin needed was to see Soleimani get smoked by a US drone. Then he sees his Wagner 

group proxies get annihilated in Syria. That's all the proof that Putin needed to see. He's not dumb. 

He knew that Trump was totally UNPREDICTABLE and Obama/Biden were totally predictable.

Nothing like telegraphing to your enemies what you won't do - fools like Biden & Obama do that.

[cubsfan]

You just got to love Obama's show of strength against Russia. Once the Russians stepped over Obama's

'Red Line' in Crimea - the Ukrainians begged the President for arms. So Obama gave them MRE's & Blankets.

The Ukrainian President told the US Congress: "One can not win a war with blankets"

 

And of course, you all know the rest of story. One of President Trump's first executive actions was delivering

Javelin Anti-Tank missiles to Ukraine. Those same missiles that are knocking out Russian tanks left and right.

 

And of course, Biden, just dithers, until humiliated into action by the rest of the world.

 

Let's hope it's not too late to save Ukraine.

[RichardGibbons]

1 hour ago, cubsfan said:

And of course, you all know the rest of story. One of President Trump's first executive actions was delivering Javelin Anti-Tank missiles to Ukraine.

 

Not to mention the other rest of the story where anther one of Trump's actions was to attempt to extort Ukraine, refusing to deliver the military aid approved by the American government unless Ukraine agreed to lie to help Trump win re-election.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

 

54 minutes ago, RichardGibbons said:

 

Not to mention the other rest of the story where anther one of Trump's actions was to attempt to extort Ukraine, refusing to deliver the military aid approved by the American government unless Ukraine agreed to lie to help Trump win re-election.

 

We'll ignore that piece for now. We'll also ignore that Putin did this shit in Georgia in 2008 while Bush was still President and who was more of a war monger than Bush?

 

The primary thread that 2008, 2014, and 2022 had in common wasn't Democratic presidents, but rather high energy prices. Putin could afford the war. 

 

Had oil been $90/barrel in 2017, I imagine Putin would've considered invading then. But it wasn't. It was averaging about $55/barrel that year. He wasn't scared of Trump - he just couldn't afford the fight with Trump. 

Edited March 17, 2022 by TwoCitiesCapital

[cubsfan]

^^^^ Yeah, thanks for helping make the point. Trump knew he could hurt Putin & Iran badly by having the USA 

become energy independent.  Trump wouldn't make the colossal mistake that the Europeans did by 

outsourcing their energy independence to the Russians. Major fuck up. Putin certainly feared lower

global oil prices initiated by Trump.

 

Thankfully for Putin, Joe Biden was more than happy to accommodate Russian aggression by 

driving oil prices back up.

[boilermaker75]

13 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

^^^^ Yeah, thanks for helping make the point. Trump knew he could hurt Putin & Iran badly by having the USA 

become energy independent.  Trump wouldn't make the colossal mistake that the Europeans did by 

outsourcing their energy independence to the Russians. Major fuck up. Putin certainly feared lower

global oil prices initiated by Trump.

 

Thankfully for Putin, Joe Biden was more than happy to accommodate Russian aggression by 

driving oil prices back up.

 

Then there was, I guess for some companies still is, dependence on russia for rocket engines. Thank goodness for Elon Musk.

[no_free_lunch]

23 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

^^^^ Yeah, thanks for helping make the point. Trump knew he could hurt Putin & Iran badly by having the USA 

become energy independent.  Trump wouldn't make the colossal mistake that the Europeans did by 

outsourcing their energy independence to the Russians. Major fuck up. Putin certainly feared lower

global oil prices initiated by Trump.

 

Thankfully for Putin, Joe Biden was more than happy to accommodate Russian aggression by 

driving oil prices back up.

This is a very good point. The efforts to reduce energy production in Canada and the US are borderline treason.  Our governments deliberately throttled our economies and handed advantage to our enemies.  I don't know how you can possibly justify it.  Why didn't they just focus on green energy and oil production at the same time.  It's so arrogant what has been going on.  Even now they won't admit it was a mistake.

 

Edited March 18, 2022 by no_free_lunch

[cubsfan]

^^^^ Yeah, pretty much arrogance is the right description.

You think these people give a rat's ass about $6/gal gas for Joe & Mary Sixpack?  Not a chance.

 

Here is John Kerry - Putin's useful idiot - and what he had to say:

 

“Equally importantly,” Kerry complained, “you’re going to lose people’s focus,” as if the first invasion of a sovereign European country since the Second World War is an annoying distraction. 

 

Hopefully, Kerry continued, Putin would realize that Russia’s land is thawing, and the people of Russia are at risk.  

 

Kerry hopes Putin “will help us to stay on track with respect to what we need to do for the climate.”

 

 

Edited March 18, 2022 by cubsfan

[no_free_lunch]

25 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

^^^^ Yeah, pretty much arrogance is the right description.

You think these people give a rat's ass about $6/gal gas for Joe & Mary Sixpack?  Not a chance.

 

Here is John Kerry - Putin's useful idiot - and what he had to say:

 

“Equally importantly,” Kerry complained, “you’re going to lose people’s focus,” as if the first invasion of a sovereign European country since the Second World War is an annoying distraction. 

 

Hopefully, Kerry continued, Putin would realize that Russia’s land is thawing, and the people of Russia are at risk.  

 

Kerry hopes Putin “will help us to stay on track with respect to what we need to do for the climate.”

 

 

Yes I have seen this stuff. The thing is Russia oil production and our reliance on it are different things. So assume you believe in climate change, it still makes no sense to blame Russia in any way.  You figure out a way that you don't need their energy products, they wont sell them to you.  It's just all nonsense. 

Edited March 18, 2022 by no_free_lunch