Political Posts

[Spekulatius]

This is going to be fun to watch:

https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/us-examines-equity-stake-chip-makers-chips-act-cash-grants-sources-say-2025-08-20/
 

Every company who can afford to do so will pay back the grants pronto.

 

I think Europe and Japan in particular can really exploit this if they play this smartly.

[cubsfan]

7 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

POTUS meeting this man with a double handshake in Alaska, adressing him 'Vladimir'. It's just nauseating.

 

You're hilarious really. 

 

Keep calling him a dictator and see how far you get in negotiations.

 

Putin is to be feared, and not disrespected if you wish to end the war. 

Biden and the chumps in Europe already disrespected Putin, and so far, 

he has called your bluff and you have a catastrophic outcome - 1.5M casualties.

 

 

[73 Reds]

44 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Magas yard stick is broken. Countries like Denmark have chipped in and yet get criticized as bad allies and then there is this Greenland thing.

See, this is the problem.  What is "Maga"? Who does it apply to?  What is a "bad ally" and who made such an accusation and under what pretext?  The "Greenland thing" is really a mystery.  Non-supporters clearly don't understand that those who voted for Trump wanted someone who thinks - and acts- outside the box.  Who cares if a few feathers are ruffled or someone's feeling are temporarily hurt?  Not me.  The policies I voted for are largely being addressed in ways I had hoped for.  Non-supporters will get their chance next year and in 2028.  Good luck with that.

[dealraker]

1 hour ago, cubsfan said:

 

There is this little thing called Law & Order, which is nice to see restored to the US.

Along with various cultural and educational issues being reset...

 

I've grown weary of the silly schools with their undying support of movements such as "Gays for Palestine", who are so ignorant not to understand the reality of Hamas's desire to throw them off buildings.

 

It's not all about money.

Cubs you are as naive as your handle suggests.  To me there are some easy predictions as to when, not if, business and stocks don't go the way most- both lovers and haters- of Trump expect.

[cubsfan]

3 minutes ago, dealraker said:

Cubs you are as naive as your handle suggests.  To me there are some easy predictions as to when, not if, business and stocks don't go the way most- both lovers and haters- of Trump expect.

 

Thanks deal - I'll be sure and stay tuned. 

Just make sure you're not listening to all the "experts" that predicted the end of the world for the last 6 months.  They're looking pretty clueless these days.

[changegonnacome]

2 hours ago, Sweet said:

You realise Ukraine borders the EU, bigger and more economically prosperous than Russia, less nukes sure but they have smarts and capacity to out produce and outfight Russia in every regard should they want to.  So Ukraine lives in the shadow of two trees, and Russia isn’t even the biggest tree.

 

Well what I would say is that EU isn't a country....it doesn't think like a country....its still for all the talk 27 countries in an economic union.....but YES....I agree.....if Lee Kuan Yew was President of Ukraine he'd say his job is to have excellent cordial relations with both Russia AND the EU simultaneously....as a mouse you don't pick sides in an Elephant fight....your likely to get crushed.

[John Hjorth]

1 hour ago, cubsfan said:

You're hilarious really. 

 

Keep calling him a dictator and see how far you get in negotiations.

 

Putin is to be feared, and not disrespected if you wish to end the war. 

Biden and the chumps in Europe already disrespected Putin, and so far, 

he has called your bluff and you have a catastrophic outcome - 1.5M casualties.

 

Mike [ @cubsfan ],

 

Please stop this dubbing / name calling towards other CofB&F members. It brings you - on here - absolutely nowhere. For my part, personally, it's just works like throwing a bucket of water on a fat goose. Finally, eventually, and in the end I just get tired of it, and starts reporting you.

 

Isen't it possible any longer here on CofB&F to have a civil discussion of all this Ukrainian related mess going on, based on observations, and sound reason and sharing of arguments based on logic?

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Here are a couple of sources for my last post about that [, because I can't by now find the video with Lavrov actually saying today, what I posted earlier] :

 

Reuters - World, Europe [August 20^th 2025] : Russia says talks on Ukraine's security without Moscow are a 'road to nowhere',

 

New York Times - Russia-Ukraine War [August 20^th 2025] : Russia Demands Role in Guaranteeing Ukraine’s Postwar Security

 

Subtitle : European and Ukrainian officials call the idea ludicrous, showing the large gaps in peace negotiations.

 

- - - o 0 o - - - -

 

And even more important here :

 

New York Times [June 16^th 2025] : Ukraine-Russia Peace Is as Elusive as Ever. But in 2022 They Were Talking.

 

Subtitle : Representatives from the warring nations held peace talks in the early weeks of the Russian invasion. They fizzled. Documents from those talks show why any new ones will face major obstacles.

[gfp]

11 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

it's just works like throwing a bucket of water on a fat goose

 

that's a new one for me

[John Hjorth]

8 minutes ago, gfp said:

that's a new one for me

 

We Danes have a lot of strange but illustrative ways to express what we mean, - some of them may even be worthwhile considering  exporting! -lol!

Edited August 20, 2025 by John Hjorth

[cubsfan]

29 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Mike [ @cubsfan ],

 

Please stop this dubbing / name calling towards other CofB&F members. It brings you - on here - absolutely nowhere. For my part, personally, it's just works like throwing a bucket of water on a fat goose. Finally, eventually, and in the end I just get tired of it, and starts reporting you.

 

Isen't it possible any longer here on CofB&F to have a civil discussion of all this Ukrainian related mess going on, based on observations, and sound reason and sharing of arguments based on logic?

 

It would be good for you to get a grip on the situation.

 

You somehow think insulting Putin and POTUS is going to solve this conflict with all your parodies. 

 

Try thinking this through. IF there was a very dangerous man holding a gun to your child's head - how smart would it be to call him (Putin) names and antagonize him JUST to make yourself feel better?

 

Yet, you just can't stop with silly criticism of POTUS dealing with a very dangerous man with DIPLOMACY, all the while trying to save Ukraine's hide. You as the critic are more than comfortable sitting in Denmark while thousands die every day and you continue your virtue signaling from comfort.

 

Get real already.

 

IF you wish to have a more fruitful exchange - lay out YOUR strategic vision for solving this conflict - either militarily or negotiated peace. Lay out the steps and we will have a fruitful conversation.  I promise, I will not hold you to the outcome, but we can debate YOUR strategy more than civily.

 

Otherwise you'll continue throw silly insults at POTUS and I'll continue to remind you of the disaster that Europe has created here.

 

Fair enough?

[Sweet]

1 hour ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Well what I would say is that EU isn't a country....it doesn't think like a country....its still for all the talk 27 countries in an economic union.....but YES....I agree.....if Lee Kuan Yew was President of Ukraine he'd say his job is to have excellent cordial relations with both Russia AND the EU simultaneously....as a mouse you don't pick sides in an Elephant fight....your likely to get crushed.

 

That’s not quite right.  Russia wants Ukraine under its thumb.  Ukraine being neutral means being pro-Russia in Putin’s eyes.  Lots of this comes down to people believing what Putin says and not watching what he does.

[changegonnacome]

1 hour ago, Sweet said:

Russia wants Ukraine under its thumb

 

I think that it wants is Ukraine not under the West's thumb more than it might want it under its thumb......it's a delicate nuanced balance for Ukraine.....sometimes the correct posture (depending on who's in the Kremlin, or who's the US /EU president) might be to be closer to Russia for a time, sometimes it might be better to lean into the West a bit more......your job though is not to get country caught in the crossfire of great power politics.......sometimes in life that requires that you accept your reality and the constraints it place on you and you skillfully play the poor hand your dealt.....Ukraine has what they call in IR the classic buffer state dilema.....Belarus had it to.....the leadership in Belarus has played both the West and Russia quite skillfully for a couple of decades now...only recently really leaning into their partnership with Russia......the reality....if your a 25 year old male what country would you prefer to live in - current day Belarus or current day Ukraine?.....Lukashenko is no angel......but relative to Zelensky and his pro-West predecessors he got the memo....and between the two who has optimized the health, happiness and prosperity and indeed survival of their nation over the last decade better....the proof is in the pudding as they say......too many people in the realm of international conflict and security get lost in narratives of good and evil.......or caught down rabbit holes of believing every dictator/autocrate is Hitler reincarnated...in the historical record I think people don't quite understand how unusual Hitler was....he was fundamentally a congenital aggressor......appeasement didn't work with him because he was such an unusual character and had his country under a spell.......the lazy heuristic for Putin is this one.....which is quite funny when you just look at the facts around the invasion of Ukraine....as I've pointed out many times on this thread.....Russia entered Ukraine with a military force so small, so tiny that conquering & occupying even the city of Kyiv was beyond its capability............Russia's standing army at home in March 2022 was relatively tiny, its military industrial base limited....this was not Germany & Hitler building a coiled imperial war machine leading up to 1939.....its laughable to hear European leaders speak about the Russian army as some version of the Wehrmacht in 1939 ready to rollver Ukraine on its way to Warsaw and Berlin.......Russia is stuck in the mud in Eastern Ukraine precisely because it really had no expansive territorial aspirations leading up to 2022 because if it did it would have had a large standing army (instead of conscripting prisoners in Moscow jails while borrowing drones from Iran)......its pretty clear now that what Putin/Russia we're looking for was a shock and awe coup-de-dat in Kyiv that would collapse pro-West Zelensky forces and nudge Ukraine's political system away from tilting so aggressively to the west (NATO etc.). I know that isnt the Western narrative but the facts are the facts. Russia's lack of military buildup prior to Feb 2022. The pitifully small ground army invasion that entered Ukraine  in Feb 2022. 

 

https://www.universiteitleiden.nl/en/news/2022/06/belarus-is-the-only-russian-ally-left-in-europe-what-is-in-it-for-them#:~:text=Play both sides,'

Edited August 20, 2025 by changegonnacome

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, cubsfan said:

 

It would be good for you to get a grip on the situation.

 

You somehow think insulting Putin and POTUS is going to solve this conflict with all your parodies. 

 

Try thinking this through. IF there was a very dangerous man holding a gun to your child's head - how smart would it be to call him (Putin) names and antagonize him JUST to make yourself feel better?

 

Yet, you just can't stop with silly criticism of POTUS dealing with a very dangerous man with DIPLOMACY, all the while trying to save Ukraine's hide. You as the critic are more than comfortable sitting in Denmark while thousands die every day and you continue your virtue signaling from comfort.

 

Get real already.

 

IF you wish to have a more fruitful exchange - lay out YOUR strategic vision for solving this conflict - either militarily or negotiated peace. Lay out the steps and we will have a fruitful conversation.  I promise, I will not hold you to the outcome, but we can debate YOUR strategy more than civily.

 

Otherwise you'll continue throw silly insults at POTUS and I'll continue to remind you of the disaster that Europe has created here.

 

Fair enough?

Ensure Ukraines air superiority. Everything else will follow if you can bomb the enemy at will from the air. It might require stealth fighters  and bombers to take down the air defense systems initially , once those are done regular jets will do. If you can create a 50 mile deep no fly zone where no air defense exists and Russian fighter can around the front line, you can crate huge losses to the enemy with little losses to Ukraine and prevent any attack from even forming much less succeeding. 
 

I think if you win air superiority in this type of stale mate WW1 war can be won.

[cubsfan]

46 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

I think that it wants is Ukraine not under the West's thumb more than it might want it under its thumb......it's a delicate nuanced balance for Ukraine.....sometimes the correct posture (depending on who's in the Kremlin, or who's the US /EU president) might be to be closer to Russia for a time, sometimes it might be better to lean into the West a bit more......your job though is not to get country caught in the crossfire of great power politics.......sometimes in life that requires that you accept your reality and the constraints it place on you and you skillfully play the poor hand your dealt.....Ukraine has what they call in IR the classic buffer state dilema.....Belarus had it to.....the leadership in Belarus has played both the West and Russia quite skillfully for a couple of decades now...only recently really leaning into their partnership with Russia......the reality....if your a 25 year old male what country would you prefer to live in - current day Belarus or current day Ukraine?.....Lukashenko is no angel......but relative to Zelensky and his pro-West predecessors he got the memo....and between the two who has optimized the health, happiness and prosperity and indeed survival of their nation over the last decade better....the proof is in the pudding as they say......too many people in the realm of international conflict and security get lost in narratives of good and evil.......or caught down rabbit holes of believing every dictator/autocrate is Hitler reincarnated...in the historical record I think people don't quite understand how unusual Hitler was....he was fundamentally a congenital aggressor......appeasement didn't work with him because he was such an unusual character and had his country under a spell.......the lazy heuristic for Putin is this one.....which is quite funny when you just look at the facts around the invasion of Ukraine....as I've pointed out many times on this thread.....Russia entered Ukraine with a military force so small, so tiny that conquering & occupying even the city of Kyiv was beyond its capability............Russia's standing army at home in March 2022 was relatively tiny, its military industrial base limited....this was not Germany & Hitler building a coiled imperial war machine leading up to 1939.....its laughable to hear European leaders speak about the Russian army as some version of the Wehrmacht in 1939 ready to rollver Ukraine on its way to Warsaw and Berlin.......Russia is stuck in the mud in Eastern Ukraine precisely because it really had no expansive territorial aspirations leading up to 2022 because if it did it would have had a large standing army (instead of conscripting prisoners in Moscow jails while borrowing drones from Iran)......its pretty clear now that what Putin/Russia we're looking for was a shock and awe coup-de-dat in Kyiv that would collapse pro-West Zelensky forces and nudge Ukraine's political system away from tilting so aggressively to the west (NATO etc.). I know that isnt the Western narrative but the facts are the facts. Russia's lack of military buildup prior to Feb 2022. The pitifully small ground army invasion that entered Ukraine  in Feb 2022. 

 

https://www.universiteitleiden.nl/en/news/2022/06/belarus-is-the-only-russian-ally-left-in-europe-what-is-in-it-for-them#:~:text=Play both sides,'

 

Great post.

 

But to @Sweet's issue: the devil is in the details of the security guarantee since Putin's word means nothing.

[cubsfan]

Just now, Spekulatius said:

Ensure Ukraines air superiority. Everything else will follow if you can bomb the enemy at will from the air. It might require stealth fighters  and bombers to take down the air defense systems initially , once those are done regular jets will do. If you can create a 50 mile deep no fly zone where no air defense exists and Russian fighter can around the front line, you can crate huge losses to the enemy with little losses to Ukraine and prevent any attack from even forming much less succeeding. 
 

I think if you win air superiority in this type of stale mate WW1 war can be won.

 

Now we're getting someplace. 

 

Does this mean as part of a negotiated settlement?   

 

Or stop negotiations now?

[Spekulatius]

7 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

Now we're getting someplace. 

 

Does this mean as part of a negotiated settlement?   

 

Or stop negotiations now?

Negotiation is always preferable but Trump should put the threat on the table. If negotiations go nowhere follow through. You need a big stick to rule the unruly.

[cubsfan]

3 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Negotiation is always preferable but Trump should put the threat on the table. If negotiations go nowhere follow through. You need a big stick to rule the unruly.

 

He has threats of secondary sanctions on the table, which will be very ugly for everyone, but may bring Russia's economy to it's knees (with collateral damage to the rest of the world).

 

Do you go with those - or bypass them completely?

 

Things can't be good in Russia right now economically. Not that Putin cares unless it threatens his power with his oligarchs.

[changegonnacome]

25 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

But to @Sweet's issue: the devil is in the details of the security guarantee since Putin's word means nothing.

 

Nobodys words mean anything anymore...and they never really did anyway....nations have interests and those interests and intents change over time....as the realists always say the international system is anarchic......we have some thin fig leave of an international system that sits above states but its something of an illusion (ICC, WTO, UN)....it gives the impression of some system that sits above state level interactions but in reality as we've seen with Liberation Day riding roughshod over WTO rules...or the impotentance of the ICC re: Netanyahu (whether you agree with the charges or not)......the reality stands in the international system as a nation when you call 911 nobody answers the phone.

 

My base case re:Putin and the security guarantees is that they will turn out to be a red herring. He is going to rug pull whatever Trump thinks he agreed to in Alaska. Whatever the Europeans and American's are concocting re: security guarantees and what's clear is that they are coming up with something that is so Article 5-adjacent that Ukraine might as well be in NATO......and so I think Putin will shut it down or demand it be watered down so completely to be meaningless that talks will collapse and the fighting continue. Maybe I'm wrong - but this part of the Alaska summit (permission for security guarantees) struck me as the most outlandish.....and forgive me for not believing things that Witcoff or Trump say we're agreed too.....I said it a few days ago and I'll say it now....I think the security guarantee greenlight from Russia reported by Witcoff and Trump will turn out to be bullshit.

 

Edited August 20, 2025 by changegonnacome

[cubsfan]

6 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Nobodys words mean anything anymore...and they never really did anyway....nations have interests and those interests and intents change over time....as the realists always say the international system is anarchic......we have some thin fig leave of an international system that sits above states but its something of an illusion (ICC, WTO, UN)....it gives the impression of some system that sits above state level interactions but in reality as we've seen with Liberation Day riding roughshod over WTO rules...or the impotentance of the ICC re: Netanyahu (whether you agree with the charges or not)......the reality stands in the international system as a nation when you call 911 nobody answers the phone.

 

My base case re:Putin and the security guarantees is that they will turn out to be a red herring. He is going to rug pull whatever Trump thinks he agreed to in Alaska. Whatever the Europeans and American's are concocting re: security guarantees and what's clear is that they are coming up with something that is so Article 5-adjacent that Ukraine might as well be in NATO......and so I think Putin will shut it down or demand it be watered down so completely to be meaningless that talks will collapse and the fighting continue. Maybe I'm wrong - but this part of the Alaska summit (permission for security guarantees) struck me as the most outlandish.....and forgive me for not believing things that Witcoff or Trump say we're agreed too.....I said it a few days ago and I'll say it now....I think the security guarantee greenlight from Russia reported by Witcoff and Trump will turn out to be bullshit.

 

 

"Pulling the rug out from under Trump"

 

I can absolutely see that happening as Putin said he needed to discuss with his cabinet/oligarchs (whatever).

 

Should an impasse occur - what do you believe Trump's situation is with his proposed secondary sanctions?

 

Trump didn't fuck around Iran. In this case, sanctions are extremely bad for Russia, but also the rest of the world.

[changegonnacome]

6 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

I can absolutely see that happening as Putin said he needed to discuss with his cabinet/oligarchs (whatever).

 

I hadn't seen that - but straight away thats bullshit. As straight away after Witcoff came out on Sunday morning television last week (not directly after Alaska summit where this would have been a huge concession) saying that Russia had agreed to allow security guarantees be provided to Ukraine by the West felt like something was off. That European leaders and Trump seem to be in the process of writing up something close to special Article 5 guarantees for Ukraine again strikes me as very odd for something Russia would agree too.

 

This DC summit & the 'work' on-going on Ukrainian security guarantees provided for by the West I suspect is some bluesky fever dream destined to be shot down by Putin/the Kremlin as not being what was agreed too.

 

18 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Should an impasse occur - what do you believe Trump's situation is with his proposed secondary sanctions?

 

Two thoughts on this.....sanctions havent quite brought Russia to its knees like we hoped....I'm not sure secondary sanctions will either....and you've got all types of retaltory issues there to....you think China or India is just going to take secondary sanctions laying down? That they dont have agency.

 

So these sanctions, if implemented, have questionable efficacy and they wont be costless to the US which leads to the big foundational question re:Ukraine which is we say we care about the outcome there....but do American voters and by extension politicians care enough to have secondary sanctions boomerang back as some retaliatory measure against the US that hurts oil prices or goods prices or rare earths again. The answer in reality is No. I dont think they ever really happen.

 

I think Trump after this Alaska and trilateral run at the problem is going to remove himself from any ownership of the situation.....he will smartly distance himself from the problem, because he'll realize its intractable.

 

@Spekulatius is correct re: airpower....but again....everybody cares enough about Ukraine to send money & good vibes....but nobody quite cares enough to have their military assets engage directly in bilateral way with a nuclear power like Russia....nobody can quite seems to bring to themselves to that escalatory step because they know its crossing a rubicon of sorts....a proxy war is one thing....this would be quite another and I havent seen a credible comment from any coalition of the willing member that suggest their airforce pilots would drop bombs on Russian soldiers.

 

So in practise....I think the West (incl. Trump) is out of viable military and non-military options....maybe we get some trilateral meetings or such....but I think Russia drives this war to its conclusion which will involve a defacto collapsing of Ukrainian frontlines and the final taking of territory that Russia deems to be viable to hold over the long pull (majority ethno-russian) and you get a kind of North Korea-South Korea situation. That's where we're headed. I'm not sure on the timelines I havent immersed myself in the latest casualty exchange ratios or how many fighting age men are even left in Ukraine that are uninjured....but what I would say is time isnt on their side.

[changegonnacome]

51 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Trump didn't fuck around Iran. In this case, sanctions are extremely bad for Russia, but also the rest of the world.

 

Yeah I don't think they happen or certainly not in a way that will matter....like if they do it will be so watered down the secondary sanctions will have no bite and as such will be a PR exercise.

 

The reality here.....Trump/GOP heading into the mid-terms is not going to do anything to shave points of the US's GDP.....fullsome secondary sanctions would boomerang back to the US as economic pain IMO.

[DooDiligence]

Meanwhile in the USA

 

The early warning signs of fascism:

 

1. Powerful and Continuing Nationalism: An intense focus on national unity and identity, often to the exclusion of other groups or cultures.

 

2. Disdain for Human Rights: A disregard for the rights and dignity of individuals, especially those considered outside the favored group.

 

3. Identification of Enemies as a Unifying Cause: Using a common enemy or scapegoat to create a sense of cohesion and rally support for the cause.

 

4. Supremacy of the Military: Glorifying military power and prioritizing military spending and influence.

 

5. Rampant Sexism: Promoting traditional gender roles and often portraying women in a subordinate position.

 

6. Controlled Mass Media: Efforts to control or suppress independent media outlets and promote a specific narrative.

 

7. Obsession with National Security: An exaggerated focus on national security concerns, potentially leading to increased surveillance and restrictions on liberties.

 

8. Religion and Government Intertwined: Blurring the lines between religious and governmental authority, or using religion to legitimize political actions.

 

9. Corporate Power Protected: Policies that favor large corporations and often suppress the rights of workers or labor unions.

 

10. Labor Power Suppressed: Weakening or eliminating the influence of labor movements and organizations.

 

11. Disdain for Intellectuals and The Arts: Undermining the value of critical thinking, artistic expression, and independent intellectual pursuits.

 

12. Obsession with Crime and Punishment: A strong focus on "law and order," potentially leading to harsh punishments and an emphasis on controlling perceived criminality.

 

13. Rampant Cronyism and Corruption: A system where loyalty to the leader or party is prioritized over competence and fair procedures.

 

14. Fraudulent Elections: Undermining or manipulating democratic electoral processes to maintain or seize power.

 

Thank you for your attention to this matter.

[cubsfan]

24 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

I hadn't seen that - but straight away thats bullshit. As straight away after Witcoff came out on Sunday morning television last week (not directly after Alaska summit where this would have been a huge concession) saying that Russia had agreed to allow security guarantees be provided to Ukraine by the West felt like something was off. That European leaders and Trump seem to be in the process of writing up something close to special Article 5 guarantees for Ukraine again strikes me as very odd for something Russia would agree too.

 

This DC summit & the 'work' on-going on Ukrainian security guarantees provided for by the West I suspect is some bluesky fever dream destined to be shot down by Putin/the Kremlin as not being what was agreed too.

 

 

Two thoughts on this.....sanctions havent quite brought Russia to its knees like we hoped....I'm not sure secondary sanctions will either....and you've got all types of retaltory issues there to....you think China or India is just going to take secondary sanctions laying down? That they dont have agency.

 

So these sanctions, if implemented, have questionable efficacy and they wont be costless to the US which leads to the big foundational question re:Ukraine which is we say we care about the outcome there....but do American voters and by extension politicians care enough to have secondary sanctions boomerang back as some retaliatory measure against the US that hurts oil prices or goods prices or rare earths again. The answer in reality is No. I dont think they ever really happen.

 

I think Trump after this Alaska and trilateral run at the problem is going to remove himself from any ownership of the situation.....he will smartly distance himself from the problem, because he'll realize its intractable.

 

@Spekulatius is correct re: airpower....but again....everybody cares enough about Ukraine to send money & good vibes....but nobody quite cares enough to have their military assets engage directly in bilateral way with a nuclear power like Russia....nobody can quite seems to bring to themselves to that escalatory step because they know its crossing a rubicon of sorts....a proxy war is one thing....this would be quite another and I havent seen a credible comment from any coalition of the willing member that suggest their airforce pilots would drop bombs on Russian soldiers.

 

So in practise....I think the West (incl. Trump) is out of viable military and non-military options....maybe we get some trilateral meetings or such....but I think Russia drives this war to its conclusion which will involve a defacto collapsing of Ukrainian frontlines and the final taking of territory that Russia deems to be viable to hold over the long pull (majority ethno-russian) and you get a kind of North Korea-South Korea situation. That's where we're headed. I'm not sure on the timelines I havent immersed myself in the latest casualty exchange ratios or how many fighting age men are even left in Ukraine that are uninjured....but what I would say is time isnt on their side.

 

I can't disagree at all really, especially if current negotiations fail.

 

The secondary sanctions could be very powerful, but the collateral damage to India and China could be immense. It's a dangerous step - and may necessitate Trump just walking on Ukraine and leave it to Europe to deal with.  I'm just not sure how you crush the Russian economy - unless you can supply India (a good ally) with oil.  And why go there with China, for the sake of Ukraine, when your relationship with them is shaky at best and your relationship with India is important.

 

So then, if it comes to a military option. I hope the US will opt out.

 

I'm quite serious though that Putin may actually want a reset with the US IF he can get a reasonable deal with Ukraine. His Alaska speech was stunning, IMHO, asking for a repaired relationship (economically) with America.  I'm actually thinking that is the greatest leverage Trump may have.

 

The only leverage he has on Zelensky is that Ukraine probably realizes the MAGA base & Trump won't stand for our direct military involvement under any circumstances.

 

 

Edited August 21, 2025 by cubsfan

[cubsfan]

13 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Yeah I don't think they happen or certainly not in a way that will matter....like if they do it will be so watered down the secondary sanctions will have no bite and as such will be a PR exercise.

 

The reality here.....Trump/GOP heading into the mid-terms is not going to do anything to shave points of the US's GDP.....fullsome secondary sanctions would boomerang back to the US as economic pain IMO.

 

Yup, he was elected on a platform of no unnecessary foreign wars.

The country is tired of that shit.

[changegonnacome]

34 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Trump just walking on Ukraine and leave it to Europe to deal with

 

I think that process has already begun...with the whole US wont give Ukraine weapons anymore...but we'll sell weapons to the Europeans to give to them. 

 

Alaska, DC Summit & potential trilat (which will when all is said and done amount to a hill beans) will be his off ramp.....Ukraine is an impossible conundrum for the West....we care but not quite enough to meaningfully affect the final inevitable outcome on the battlefield.

 

Boris Johnson & Joe Biden have a lot to answer for.....the Istanbul peace talks was the optimal off ramp for Ukraine...and the two idiots....one who'd lost his marbles (Biden) and the other with no marbles to begin with (Johnson) encouraged Zelensky to press forward instead to defeat Russia on the battlefield. 

 

 

Edited August 21, 2025 by changegonnacome