Political Posts

[gfp]

40 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

Good article in the Journal about government debt:

WSJ: How the U.S. Government Borrows to Fund Its Massive Budget Shortfall

 

 

 

 

"In fact, the share of Treasurys held by foreign investors—including both public and private-sector buyers—has been declining for years."
 

"Hedge funds, counted as “households” in Fed records, have helped pick up the slack. But they are seen as a less stable source of funding because they typically buy Treasurys using large amounts of borrowed money. That means they occasionally dump bonds during times of market stress, making those situations even worse."

 

it’s the second time that article has been posted here. Is it a good article?  It reads like a primer for kindergartners. 
 

Blake - what is the actual difference between a bank reserve, a treasury bill, a note and a bond?

 

if the answer is - they are all the same, they are all liabilities of the federal government, they all serve as our money and they only differ in the rate of interest paid to us - why all this “who’s going to lend us the money!?” Fuss?

 

deficits pre-fund the cash to buy treasury securities. Spending happens before a portion of that spending is offered a government security to park in. The reason people want treasury securities instead of bank reserves is because they are more useful in the real world. They serve as the foundational collateral for the entire global monetary system 

[Paarslaars]

Come on Jerome.  

[Blake Hampton]

1 hour ago, gfp said:

It’s the second time that article has been posted here. Is it a good article?  It reads like a primer for kindergartners. 
 

Blake - what is the actual difference between a bank reserve, a treasury bill, a note and a bond?

 

If the answer is - they are all the same, they are all liabilities of the federal government, they all serve as our money and they only differ in the rate of interest paid to us - why all this “who’s going to lend us the money!?” Fuss?

 

Deficits pre-fund the cash to buy treasury securities. Spending happens before a portion of that spending is offered a government security to park in. The reason people want treasury securities instead of bank reserves is because they are more useful in the real world. They serve as the foundational collateral for the entire global monetary system 

 

The article was written on June 11th so maybe, and I think it is good. And you're right: Kindergartners understand the nuances of current issuance, the difference in Treasury maturities, and who primarily owns all of the debt. Simple kindergartner stuff.

 

Did I ever say that there wasn't a difference?

 

And you have it exactly backwards. How could deficits ever pre-fund the cash financing them? In our current deficit fueled economy, Congress first authorizes spending, Treasury raises the cash needed through issuance, and only then is it spent.

 

If someone were to really understand the fiscal math, I don't think they would want to own Treasury securities of any maturity outside of a couple years. Current interest rates on long-term debt are not appropriately pricing the risk being taken by buying them. 5% for a 30-year? I wouldn't buy that dogshit if it were at 7%.

And imagine what would happen to our economy if long-term rates got up to 7%. Many banks would be kissing their ass goodbye, the real estate market would completely freeze up, and the stock market, which is currently selling at 5x book with a 30-year average ROE of around 13%, would likely take a massive shit. And that ROE? A lot of it was fueled by historically low corporate tax and interest expenses.

 

Edited June 17, 2025 by Blake Hampton

[73 Reds]

6 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

 

The article was written on June 11th so maybe, and I think it is good. And you're right: Kindergartners understand the nuances of current issuance, the difference in Treasury maturities, and who primarily owns all of the debt. Simple kindergartner stuff.

 

Did I ever say that there wasn't a difference?

 

And you have it exactly backwards. How could deficits ever pre-fund the cash financing them? In our current deficit fueled economy, Congress first authorizes spending, Treasury raises the cash needed through Treasury issuance, and only then is it spent.

 

If someone were to really understand the fiscal math, I don't think they would want to own Treasury securities of any maturity outside of a couple years. Current interest rates on long-term debt are not appropriately pricing the risk being taken by buying them. 5% for a 30-year? I wouldn't buy that dogshit if it were at 7%.

And imagine what would happen to our economy if long-term rates got up to 7%. Many banks would be kissing their ass goodbye, the real estate market would completely freeze up, and the stock market, which is currently selling at 5x book with a 30-year average ROE of 13%, would likely take a massive shit.

 

@Blake some of us don't have to imagine what would happen to our economy if long term rates got up to 7%.  We lived through it.  Yawn.

[Blake Hampton]

4 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

@Blake some of us don't have to imagine what would happen to our economy if long term rates got up to 7%.  We lived through it.  Yawn.

 

In what alternative universe have you lived through what's currently happening?

[Castanza]

11 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

And imagine what would happen to our economy if long-term rates got up to 7%. Many banks would be kissing their ass goodbye, the real estate market would completely freeze up, and the stock market, which is currently selling at 5x book with a 30-year average ROE of around 13%, would likely take a massive shit. And that ROE? A lot of it was fueled by historically low corporate tax and interest expenses.

 

Mhmm and then you would wake up the next morning, put your pants on one leg at a time and go to work. this is why personal finance is important as well as developing yourself. Stop equating "life outcomes" to long term rates and the stock market....The important things in life do not revolve around money or politics. 

[73 Reds]

10 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

 

In what alternative universe have you lived through what's currently happening?

No idea what you mean but there used to be economic cycles called "recessions" that occurred every now and then when politicians weren't managing policy and expectations down to the millisecond.  When you take off your socialist cap and ignore views that the world is ending whenever something you don't like is reported, you might recognize that capitalism for all its faults is a largely self-correcting mechanism and the pendulum rarely swings too far in one direction before it shifts.

Edited June 17, 2025 by 73 Reds
spelling

[Blake Hampton]

4 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

No idea what you mean but there used to be economic cycles called "recessions" that occurred every now and then when politicians weren't managing policy and expectations down to the millisecond.  When you take off your socialist cap and ignore views that the world is ending whenever something you don't like is reported, you might recognize that capitalism for all its fault is a largely self-correcting mechanism and the pendulum rarely swings too far in one direction before it shifts.

It does, does it?

Watch how far that pendulum swings when the bond market's in crisis. I imagine you'll soil your drawers.

[changegonnacome]

 

Trump is now down the Bibi "weeks away" nuclear rabbit....even though US intel says years......he sure looks like a guy about to get the US servicemen involved in bombing a foreign country....so much for the 'peaceful' President....the deep (military industrial complex) state got a hold of him.

[changegonnacome]

On 5/22/2025 at 10:53 PM, changegonnacome said:

Let me say some nice things about Donald - 

 - he's done a great job regarding oct 7 hostgages

- if Biden was in power still I'm almost certain Bibi would have launched an attempted nuclear busting attack on Iran and pulled the US into a proper war in the Middle East. Bibi had zero respect for feeble Biden and ran rings around him. Trump is balls enough to stand up to Bibi....and unpredictable enough that Bibi/Israel gov might wonder one day if Trump would do to Bibi what he's done to Zelensky.....i.e. cut Israel off financially and publicly. Trump is keeping the war hawks in Israel in check, I've no doubt about that...and Israel and the world is better off for it.

 

if Biden was in power still I'm almost certain Bibi would have launched an attempted nuclear busting attack on Iran and pulled the US into a proper war in the Middle East. Bibi had zero respect for feeble Biden and ran rings around him. Trump is balls enough to stand up to Bibi....and unpredictable enough that Bibi/Israel gov might wonder one day if Trump would do to Bibi what he's done to Zelensky.....i.e. cut Israel off financially and publicly. Trump is keeping the war hawks in Israel in check, I've no doubt about that...and Israel and the world is better off for it.

 

Had strike this one of my Trump 'praise' list quicker than I thought

 

Edited June 17, 2025 by changegonnacome

[Gregmal]

37 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

It does, does it?

Watch how far that pendulum swings when the bond market's in crisis. I imagine you'll soil your drawers.

Didn't you think a few % intraday fluctuation was a huge deal a couple months ago? Seems everything is a crisis, when in reality, it is not. 

[Blake Hampton]

1 minute ago, Gregmal said:

Didn't you think a few % intraday fluctuation was a huge deal a couple months ago? Seems everything is a crisis, when in reality, it is not. 

Yeah, when Trump almost blew up global trade in a week, that was a huge deal. And he backed out of it like a little bitch when Bessent got on his hands and knees and begged him to.

 

Think long-term.

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, Castanza said:

 

Mhmm and then you would wake up the next morning, put your pants on one leg at a time and go to work. this is why personal finance is important as well as developing yourself. Stop equating "life outcomes" to long term rates and the stock market....The important things in life do not revolve around money or politics. 

If interest rates go to 7% , it is likely because inflation will be ~4% which means real interest rates are ~3% in this scenario. Seems fairly doable to me. The world will not come to an end in this case.

Edited June 17, 2025 by Spekulatius

[Blake Hampton]

I'm off the forum for a bit:

 

[Blake Hampton]

1 minute ago, Spekulatius said:

If interest rates go to 7% , it is likely because inflation will be ~4% which means real interest rates are ~3% in this scenario. Seems fairly doable to me. The world will not come to an end in this case.

It won't come to an end.

But it can be very bad.

[Gregmal]

11 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

Yeah, when Trump almost blew up global trade in a week, that was a huge deal. And he backed out of it like a little bitch when Bessent got on his hands and knees and begged him to.

 

Think long-term.

You seem to be sensational both short and long term. 

 

Im assuming that the evidence that Trump almost blew up global trade, in reference to your bond market point, relates to treasuries fluctuating back to around 2023 and 2024 levels?

[John Hjorth]

1 hour ago, changegonnacome said:

 

if Biden was in power still I'm almost certain Bibi would have launched an attempted nuclear busting attack on Iran and pulled the US into a proper war in the Middle East. Bibi had zero respect for feeble Biden and ran rings around him. Trump is balls enough to stand up to Bibi....and unpredictable enough that Bibi/Israel gov might wonder one day if Trump would do to Bibi what he's done to Zelensky.....i.e. cut Israel off financially and publicly. Trump is keeping the war hawks in Israel in check, I've no doubt about that...and Israel and the world is better off for it.

 

Had strike this one of my Trump 'praise' list quicker than I thought

 

@changegonnacome,

 

Because of an opportunistic Donald Trump U-turn., - Please remember to never forget.

[73 Reds]

1 hour ago, Blake Hampton said:

It does, does it?

Watch how far that pendulum swings when the bond market's in crisis. I imagine you'll soil your drawers.

Nah, more likely I'll hardly notice.  I learned to treat investing like a bookmaker treats the events his gamblers bet on.  Doesn't really matter what happens as long as there is a way to make money on any scenario by properly managing your "book".  Otherwise we'll survive.

[changegonnacome]

21 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

Because of an opportunistic Donald Trump U-turn., - Please remember to never forget.

 

Yep!

[changegonnacome]

 

 

 

 

Edited June 17, 2025 by changegonnacome

[Gregmal]

I mean if there’s a short term way to largely solve the Iran problem, what’s the issue? Especially if it is largely another country doing the heavy lifting? 
 

Im the last person in the world who’s in favor of wars or violence, but this seems like a low risk, high reward setup. And like usual, you guys are pissing on it and undermining? Go live in Iran in you want lol 

[changegonnacome]

18 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

I mean if there’s a short term way to largely solve the Iran problem, what’s the issue?

Exact logic used in so many wars………..short term and limited strategic operations….have a terrible habit of turning into long term and extensive military ones……the scope just expands and expands over time….you’ve seen this movie before @Gregmal, think your own TDS has you downplaying the downside risks here.
 

I’m not saying for a second that there isn’t an outcome here where WE drop some bunker busters over the space of a few days go home and call it a win…..but don’t forget that Wiley coyote Bibi has the cat by the tail now and has played this beautifully already to get to where we are now…..I’ve great faith that he’ll manipulate Trump into deeper and deeper commitments via false flags and threat inflation (if further commitments beyond bunker busters is what he’s after).

 

Edited June 17, 2025 by changegonnacome

[Gregmal]

Nah. Trump has demonstrated on many occasions an aversion to war. However this does seem to have some legs as far as opportunity goes. The world is safer if Iran is disarmed and we don’t have to rely on Democrats dropping pallets of cash to keep them content. And as usual, you’re micro analyzing every little thing attempting to undermine, injecting things subjectively positioned in order to claim a future conclusion that as usual coincides with the criticize Trump angle, feeding the fix to get that 3x a day “got Trump” fix. 

[cubsfan]

I think that is right. 

 

Trump is way too smart for this. So far, he has played this perfectly.

Giving Iran EVERY opportunity to de-nuke and talk. 

But they are hell bent on self-destruction.

 

Trump knows that boots on the ground for any length of time will destroy his presidency.

[cubsfan]

2 hours ago, Blake Hampton said:

Think long-term.

 

Now that is funny - from a guy whose hair is on fire every single day telling us about the end of the world!