Political Posts

[sfbm21]

I only watched it for few mins.

[sfbm21]

we will need to see to how investors fare overtime.

[UK]

8 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

 

 

And then we have :

 

AP News - World News [October 22^nd 2024] : US defense chief promises Ukraine what it needs to fight Russia but goes no further.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Now how the h*ll does all that add up?

 

But what else he is going to say officially? Perhaps It is not unlike a CEO of a failing company, expressing his optimism to the end, no mater realities.

 

https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/10/29/ukraine-is-now-struggling-to-cling-on-not-to-win

 

The gloomy mood is evident in a shift in America’s language. Senior officials like Mr Austin still strike a confident note, promising that Ukraine will win. Those involved in the guts of planning in the Pentagon say that, in practice, the ambitions of early 2023—a Ukrainian force that could take back its territory or shock Russia into talks through a well-crafted armoured punch—have given way to a narrow focus on preventing defeat. “At this point we are thinking more and more about how Ukraine can survive,” says a person involved in that planning.

[John Hjorth]

Thank you, @UK,

 

So what comes first?, Ukraine getting run over, or Russian war machine running out of steam.

[Luke]

10 hours ago, sfbm21 said:

This puts new york to shame. what politics can do to any country. I wonder why chinese folks come to us?

They are mainly coming from lower tier cities and poor country side which the government actively tries to tackle to raise living standards there.

[UK]

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

Thank you, @UK,

 

So what comes first?, Ukraine getting run over, or Russian war machine running out of steam.

 

Well for sure all this is way above my paygrade to answer:). But I quess Ukraine will get some more millitary equipment from the outgoing US administration so the question of sudden defeat would be postponed for another 6 or 12 month. But I think the real question is what will happen if US elections is won by a candidate promising to end everything in a few days. But would it necessarilly mean some kind of peace (temporary or not) or even more escallation (IIRC Trump himself boasted he once suggested that he would have bombed Moscow if Russia invaded Ukraine), anybody's guess is as good or likelly better than mine:). I pesonally think the chances of some kind of a truce or a frozen conflict are much higher with him.

 

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/donald-trump-the-bully-with-a-heart-of-gold-2024-presidential-election-dd922dd6

 

Vladimir Putin knows it too, in Mr. Trump’s telling: “I said to Putin, ‘Vladimir, we have a great relationship.’ I got along with him great. He’s a different kind of a character, I will tell you, much different than anybody under—I knew him very well. I said, ‘Vladimir, if you go after Ukraine, I am going to hit you so hard, you’re not even going to believe it. I’m going to hit you right in the middle of fricking Moscow.’ I said, ‘We’re friends. I don’t want to do it, but I have no choice.’ He goes, ‘No way.’ I said, ‘Way.’ I said, ‘You’re going to be hit so hard, and I’m going to take those f— domes right off your head.’ Because, you know, he lives under the domes.”

 

Edited November 3, 2024 by UK

[Spekulatius]

if you have not heard nothing about weapon packages, it because they slowed down to a trickle in the last 6 months or so.
 

If Ukraine gets run over, Europe has a huge problem on their hands. Start with 15 million + refugees.

 

Germany for example has only 180k troops and combat readiness is questionable. They may have to think about getting the draft implemented again, which creates a large reserve force over time. During the Cold War, the Bundeswehr had a 800k reserve force, mostly from ex draft, now it’s just a few ten thousands.

 

Or perhaps there are other solutions, but 180k are not going to cut it.

 

If Putin wins he is going to re-arm and start another adventure 5-10 years from now, when oil prices happen to be high again.

 

You can stick your head in the sand and avoid confronting a problem, but in the end the problem will run you over. From a politicians perspective this preferably happens under the next administrations watch.

[Blugolds]

11 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

 

Or perhaps there are other solutions, but 180k are not going to cut it.

 

If Putin wins he is going to re-arm and start another adventure 5-10 years from now, when oil prices happen to be high again.

 

 

A little different though, rather than a proxy war, Germany IS a member of NATO. I think Putin went into Ukraine because he knew he could without much issue, sure US gives Ukraine some token help but no real game changer help, not stopping Russia, just making it slightly more inconvenient. That would be totally different if Putin attempted the same with a NATO country.

 

US has an embassy in Ukraine but no bases, the US has several bases in Germany and before the Germans had anything to worry about Putin would have had to already have made a significant push West through countries with increased US presence and NATO countries, including Poland. 

 

https://www.army.mil/article/265027/army_establishes_permanent_garrison_in_poland

 

Putin doesnt get further than Ukraine. 

 

Trump is all talk about bombing Moscow, that is ridiculous and no way he told Putin that. Its a talking point to portray strength to voters, Putin knows he wouldnt do it because it would be the start of WWIII and to even suggest it is irresponsible IMO, just like if Putin threatened to bomb Washington, to even mention it is irresponsible IMO. Just like Putins threats to use "tactical Nukes".

 

The truth is, people may not really like Putins invasion of Ukraine but he is more willing to sacrifice troops to do it than anybody else is to stop him, so he gets a pass, the US gives some token defense tools but nothing that makes a significant difference in the battle because its not worth escalation. The juice isnt worth the squeeze, unfortunate for Ukrainians, but thats just the way it is. Now with expendable North Korean mercenaries, Ukraine has already lost as Russia has addressed the attrition issue with its own citizens by now securing fodder that nobody will miss or have issue with, very low risk for Russia and it cost Ukraine everything, those arent good odds and its only a matter of time. 

[John Hjorth]

@Blugolds,

 

Respectfully, and for backdrop information purposes only, what is your nationality?

[Dinar]

3 hours ago, Luke said:

They are mainly coming from lower tier cities and poor country side which the government actively tries to tackle to raise living standards there.

You have clearly never lived in under communism or a place with no rule of law.  Any common peasant will tell you that rule of law is what matters.  Who gives a damn about a shiny subway if you can be jailed and your property confiscated at any time and for any reason?  Soviet metro was the best the world had ever seen, Soviet educational system was better than the one in US & UK, yet it was the Soviet Union that needed to have an Iron Curtain, lest 50% of the country depart.  

Rather than spout empty platitudes about the superiority of China, (and yes, I live in NYC and our government is insanely inefficient and corrupt), move to China for say five years and start by stating that Xi is an incompetent buffoon in a public square.  Let's see what tune you will sing when you return.  

[Luke]

 

9 minutes ago, Dinar said:

You have clearly never lived in under communism or a place with no rule of law.  Any common peasant will tell you that rule of law is what matters.  Who gives a damn about a shiny subway if you can be jailed and your property confiscated at any time and for any reason?  Soviet metro was the best the world had ever seen, Soviet educational system was better than the one in US & UK, yet it was the Soviet Union that needed to have an Iron Curtain, lest 50% of the country depart.  

Rather than spout empty platitudes about the superiority of China, (and yes, I live in NYC and our government is insanely inefficient and corrupt), move to China for say five years and start by stating that Xi is an incompetent buffoon in a public square.  Let's see what tune you will sing when you return.  

Investors like @Dinar  and their gross misrepresentations of China are the reason why the opportunity in China exists and I am glad for that because its nothing but a gross misrepresentation. 

[Spekulatius]

Oof, This is what we are up against.:

https://x.com/ThorntonWa47373/status/1853029791638987136

 

Idiots like this guy are everywhere, especially on X. They don’t even know how to use photoshop.

 

Edited November 3, 2024 by Spekulatius

[Hektor]

17 minutes ago, Dinar said:

move to China for say five years and start by stating that Xi is an incompetent buffoon in a public square.  Let's see what tune you will sing when you return.

One need not go and live in China for 5 years to understand this. Here is a real current example. The brilliant Elon Musk, who is very vocally taking on the POTUS and the VP of USA, is remarkably quiet when it comes to Xi. I wonder why 

[Dinar]

6 minutes ago, Luke said:

 

Investors like @Dinar  and their gross misrepresentations of China are the reason why the opportunity in China exists and I am glad for that because its nothing but a gross misrepresentation. 

You have no idea about China.  If are a Chinese national and China is so great, why do you live in Germany?  If you are a European, why don't you live in Chinese paradise with no rule of law?  If US opened its borders, 100MM+ Chinese would leave.  US universities are full of kids from Beijing, Shanghai, who will do whatever it takes to stay in the US.  If China is so great, why do millions of Chinese from Tier 1 cities flee it every year?  You remind me of talking heads on Soviet TV who reported from Vienna or Paris or London  and talked about how horrible life was in the West compared to Soviet Paradise.  

Investing in a country without a rule of law is gambling.  Exactly the same arguments as you are using were made 20+ years ago about investing in Russia.  I got one word for you - Yukos.  If I can get a pay-off of 50 to 1, I will buy Tencent.  But to make 3x my money in the best case scenario or lose 100% in the worst is idiotic.

Good luck with your Kool-Aid, just spare us the Soviet Propangda - China is great, West sucks.  Hundreds of millions of people in China disagree with you, but you of course know better, that's why you sit in Germany!

[Luke]

2 minutes ago, Dinar said:

You have no idea about China.  If are a Chinese national and China is so great, why do you live in Germany?  If you are a European, why don't you live in Chinese paradise with no rule of law?  If US opened its borders, 100MM+ Chinese would leave.  US universities are full of kids from Beijing, Shanghai, who will do whatever it takes to stay in the US.  If China is so great, why do millions of Chinese from Tier 1 cities flee it every year?  You remind me of talking heads on Soviet TV who reported from Vienna or Paris or London  and talked about how horrible life was in the West compared to Soviet Paradise.  

Investing in a country without a rule of law is gambling.  Exactly the same arguments as you are using were made 20+ years ago about investing in Russia.  I got one word for you - Yukos.  If I can get a pay-off of 50 to 1, I will buy Tencent.  But to make 3x my money in the best case scenario or lose 100% in the worst is idiotic.

Good luck with your Kool-Aid, just spare us the Soviet Propangda - China is great, West sucks.  Hundreds of millions of people in China disagree with you, but you of course know better, that's why you sit in Germany!

Thanks for sharing your limited view! 

[Blugolds]

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

@Blugolds,

 

Respectfully, and for backdrop information purposes only, what is your nationality?

 

American

 

[John Hjorth]

Thank you, @Blugolds.

[nsx5200]

Have you even been in China, Luke?  Even travelling to autocractic or places where the rule of law is weak can give you a sense of the forces at play, and lets you better understand the type of decisions common people make.  Combine that with economic data, and you would have a fairer presentation of those places.

 

"Don’t tell me how educated you are, tell me how much you have travelled"

- prophet Muhammed

[Luke]

1 hour ago, nsx5200 said:

Have you even been in China, Luke?  Even travelling to autocractic or places where the rule of law is weak can give you a sense of the forces at play, and lets you better understand the type of decisions common people make.  Combine that with economic data, and you would have a fairer presentation of those places.

 

"Don’t tell me how educated you are, tell me how much you have travelled"

- prophet Muhammed

This whole debate about "you can't say anything about China because you don't live in China" is ridiculous. But okay, if you want to go there and "invalidate" anything I say because I have not been there, feel free. I am looking forward to hearing only from people who have been in China on this thread! Have you been in China @nsx5200 and if no, can you stop posting and let people comment who have been in China the last 5 years? Thanks! 

[Luke]

The last time I was in the US was 10 years ago lol. Am I still allowed to say anything about the US from what I have read or not? lol  

 

The letters from Rob Vinall are quite refreshing to have some non-hostile news from the local ground! 

Edited November 3, 2024 by Luke

[Dinar]

3 hours ago, Luke said:

Thanks for sharing your limited view! 

My limited view is based on talking to dozens of kids from China who have received PhD degrees in math, physics, accounting, and operations in the US and who all have chosen to stay either in US or Western Europe.  Not a single one chose to go back to China, including a few that won gold metals at International Math and Physics Olympiads.  And your clearly well informed views are based on talking to millions of Europeans and Americans who have chosen to immigrate to China...  

[Luke]

41 minutes ago, Dinar said:

My limited view is based on talking to dozens of kids from China who have received PhD degrees in math, physics, accounting, and operations in the US and who all have chosen to stay either in US or Western Europe.  Not a single one chose to go back to China, including a few that won gold metals at International Math and Physics Olympiads.  And your clearly well informed views are based on talking to millions of Europeans and Americans who have chosen to immigrate to China...  

Okay! Then it's settled! China is shit and fucked and uninvestable! Cheers! 

[Dinar]

31 minutes ago, Luke said:

Okay! Then it's settled! China is shit and fucked and uninvestable! Cheers! 

No, at the right price, it is.  The right price is when you assume that shares are actually warrants, and you want a pay-off associated with warrants.  

[Luke]

17 minutes ago, Dinar said:

No, at the right price, it is.  The right price is when you assume that shares are actually warrants, and you want a pay-off associated with warrants.  

Okay, boss, you surely will have 50 to 1 pay-off prices in China for the highest quality megacaps at some point! I am just making a huge mistake buying these crap stocks in a communist regime with no rule of law at these relatively expensive prices compared to the immense risk...

[crs223]

I find it amusing. Anybody suggesting that the US is about to be surpassed by North Korea or Cuba would be ignored. Why?  Because it’s “obvious” that North Korea sucks.

 

Yet China garners so much passion.  Why?  My hypothesis: it is “not obvious” that China sucks.  The facts do not speak for themselves and require supplemental naysaying.

 

Disclaimer: I am not a psychologist and I do not know what I’m talking about.