Political Posts

[John Hjorth]

On 11/27/2023 at 10:10 PM, Viking said:

“hellavu high price for Russia” I agree. Ukraine has been a catastrophe for Russia. Perhaps we learn in 50 years that Putin was a double agent - really working for the West. He single-handedly: 

1.) brought NATO back from the dead

2.) convinced Finland and Sweden to join NATO

3.) convinced every European country on Russia’s border to re-arm itself to the teeth

4.) destroyed Russia’s economy - likely for generations - lowering the standard of living for all its people

5.) convinced hundreds of thousands of young Russian men to flee the country (to avoid getting conscripted).

6.) killed/injured hundreds of thousands of Russian men - with 5.) creating a demographic time bomb that will go off in about 20 years.

7.) accelerated Russia’s decline as an empire.

8.) has made the country prostrate itself to China (from an economic perspective). 

I could go on. Hard to put lipstick on this pig…

 

I have go back to quoting this post by @Viking.

 

What a disaster, -it doesen't really matter which side in the war a person is on. The ramifications and dim future consequenses for the Russian people must be evident for everyone. It's simply and just a disaster.

 

Without putting numbers on any suggested additions to @Vikings numbered bullets above, I would add :

 

The Russian Youth, that earlier has been getting used to access to the Western Information Flow [Social Media, News etc. - and education!], now cut off from it, how is that going to play out? Is that part of the Russian population going to accept it, or will it gradually seek greeners grass in the West, - based on Western basic values?

 

Now - in addition - we have this :

 

Reuters [October 27^th 2023] : Putin approves big military spending hikes for Russia's budget.

 

Now if someone [that could be you!] thinks  just a bit carefully about what that's meaning for the Russian population.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Now we're at it : Propaganda, misinformation etc. are the instruments of the past of dinosaurus autocrats clinging to power, by defensive use of all kinds of power abuse.

 

Is this the new black [green?] offensive warfare marketing!? [J/K]:

 

 

1701017050516 - Hamas - Investors Deck - 20231201.pdf

[ValueArb]

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/russian-pows-describe-nightmare-of-combat-in-ukraine-4dd492b5?mod=russia_trendingnow_article_pos1

 

 

Quote

Combat at Avdiivka was “an animal nightmare,” said Sergei, a former factory worker from Perm near the Ural Mountains who signed up in October for money. His old job paid 30,000 rubles a month, he said, or about $340. The army offered him 100,000. 

 

Training consisted mostly of menial chores such as picking up branches, he said. Combat preparation consisted of firing two magazines’ worth of ammunition from an assault rifle, he said, and mostly theoretical first-aid lessons. He didn’t expect to be at the front line. He thought he would only be driving trucks in the rear, he said. 

 

Sent straight to Avdiivka, his unit was ordered to attack Ukrainian-held tree lines on the city’s northern flank. But the assault was driven back by Ukrainian armored vehicles. The unit retreated to its starting position, leaving dead men strewn across the muddy fields. Sergei was wounded but was soon sent back to the front line. In late November, he was captured while disoriented, he said. “I felt relieved. I don’t want to see this nightmare anymore.” His family hasn’t seen any of his promised pay yet, he said. The Ukrainians let him and other POWs phone home. 

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/01/world/europe/russian-soldier-burial-war.html

 

Quote

Another one of Mr. Kadyrov’s sisters, Natasha, was so beside herself with grief that her siblings gave her a sedative. Ms. Kabaeva said the family had felt it necessary to tell their mother that her son had died fighting Americans.

“She still doesn’t understand what this war is about,” Ms. Kabaeva said, explaining that her mother was raised when Ukraine and Russia were both part of the Soviet Union. “It would be impossible for her to understand that we are fighting against Ukrainians today.”

 

 

Mr. Kadyrov, a soft-spoken farmer known at home by his nickname, Vitya, thought he was too old to be called up to fight. But in October 2022, shortly after President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia ordered a mobilization of soldiers, Mr. Kadyrov was drafted at the age of 49. He was killed, along with two other soldiers, a few months later.

“Before, they didn’t take the older ones, now they take everyone anyway,” said the older Ms. Kadyrova, an ethnic Kazakh whose ancestors came to the region from present-day Kazakhstan, whose border is about 100 miles away.

 

 

[Xerxes]

On 11/30/2023 at 1:42 PM, ValueArb said:

 

(1) is a tacit admission we are going to let Ukraine bleed for years in order to bleed Russia for years. That's an realpolitik type choice that I find as awful and short sighted as most realpolitik decisions. The risk is if Ukraine collapses now you have Russia on the border with Poland, Romania, Hungary, etc. As they rebuild their military in part by using Ukrainian resources and draftees, the FSB will be in all of the border countries working to foment corruption and elect Putin approved puppets. Eventually there will be a mess large enough that people will look back and say, yea, we probably should have stopped Russia in the Ukraine.

 

(2) is the only morally acceptable choice in my mind. It has virtually uncapped positive benefits as a beaten Russia loses influence not only in Ukraine but in Georgia and other border republics who see it can be defeated and that western support can be trusted. 

 

While I admire your choice and conviction this is not how the world works. Perhaps it should but it does not. 

[Parsad]

Chinese Borrowers Default in Record Numbers

 

https://www.ft.com/content/f144f763-873c-4b4d-99e7-5e71ae07316d?ftcamp=traffic/partner/feed_headline/us_yahoo/auddev

 

Cheers!

[formthirteen]

"Russian borders end nowhere!"?

Few…:

Edited December 3, 2023 by formthirteen

[Parsad]

Double yikes!!

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/analyst-called-chinese-bank-turmoil-000000242.html

 

Cheers!

[crs223]

Summary: people are trying to get the hell out of China — with their money of course.  Not sure who is “China Observer”, but this story agrees with my uninformed bias, so I assume it’s true (ha!).  Apparently a bunch of BABA execs have “settled” to Singapore (12:45).

 

 

[Spekulatius]

6 hours ago, crs223 said:

Summary: people are trying to get the hell out of China — with their money of course.  Not sure who is “China Observer”, but this story agrees with my uninformed bias, so I assume it’s true (ha!).  Apparently a bunch of BABA execs have “settled” to Singapore (12:45).

 

 

I have watched some of "China observer" clips on youtube and it is very biased and sensationalistic and I say this as someone who is very suspect of China CCP and their economic future.

[rogermunibond]

Sinica podcast is a more balanced.  Bill Bishop Sinocism podcast and Substack are good as well.

 

Adam Tooze on China is great imo.

 

It's amazing to me how much people are drawn to the sensationalistic analysis on YT.  Must be the algo working.

[Xerxes]

 

Putin is in town in UAE discussing the Ukrainian “crisis” 

[Xerxes]

 

[formthirteen]

Europeans are going to find out what weak leaders and "the past does not repeat itself, but it rhymes" means:

 

 

 

 

I hope they will open the history books at some point:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudetendeutsches_Freikorps

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Holocaust_in_the_Sudetenland#Annexation_and_flight

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Munich_Agreement

[Spekulatius]

Italy quits Belt and Road. They were the largest country in Europe to join a while ago but have now second thoughts m partly due to leadership change with the latest election:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/italy-quits-belt-road-plan-064027543.html

[Luke]

In the end what matters are cheap local ressources available for development of technology (China has plenty, relations with russia are nice, Saudis like em too) and superiority of that technology. Who cares where the car comes from as long as they are well made and offers balance for price and performance. We saw the shift for price sensitive consumers with PDD and this will only continue with other products, Cars, Technology etc. China is a powerhouse, work ethic is very high, the infrastructure for science is on par with the US (C9 League vs Ivy League). If there is one country that is quick to change and adapt it is china, all though they will do mistakes, readjusting happens fast. Future for China is massively bullish. Our trains dont run on time and barely work and meanwhile they are eating in robot run restaurants!

[Luke]

If the US will play the war and complete cut off card that will hurt initially but the country has so much self-sufficiency, i am not worried at all. I am not even worried about the CCP taking away shares etc, people underestimate them honestly. The government has strict and specific goals for the future, are long term planners, are all smart people, corruption is now tightly controlled with Xi (compared to the corruption in western governments lol). Go China! 

 

 

 

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3243951/are-high-speed-trains-becoming-xi-jinpings-preferred-way-travel-china

 

 

[Xerxes]

The recent special report on PLA in The Economist is worth reading 

[Luke]

Pisa rankings also showed the superiority of the asians, Singapore, Hongkong, Taiwan etc....

[Luke]

 @Xerxes To quote from what you mentioned: 

 

A ruthlessly balanced view of the PLA is essential both to avoid war and, if necessary, to win one. 

 

Who will fight a war against China? The US? Lol and good luck! I am sure that the men and boys in the US want to give their lives to keep the NVIDIA bubble from bursting  

 

 

[Luke]

One thing one has to realize is that the dialogue in western media is incredibly US/Nato focussed. The soft power and influence of chinese culture is not even allowed to swap over, you only get painted a picture of an "enemy". Still, they are a thousands of thousands year old culture and society and on peak performance in everything, schools, technology, sport, music. Its a huge heritage, way older then the comparably small history of the US. There are little chinese movies in our cinemas, little chinese music, chinese literature and those soft power fields have been dominated by the west. South Korea and Japan are doing much better than China in that regard. 

 

When I watched the League of Legends e-sport finale, South Korea played against a Chinese team and I realized when seeing those guys playing that I have huge respect for their society and background. Every Chinese person I ever met has been more low key than other nations, but they have so much to offer. I appreciate their collectivist approach and also that they are going contrarian on many political topics, even with all the backlash. Also appreciate Li Lu and Co to develop more appreciation for Asians in the west: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-foundation-launches-with-125-mln-business-leaders-combat-anti-asian-hate-2021-05-03/

 

The taiwan situation is difficult and I dislike their approach, still, as Munger often said, their nation has great prospects and at 10x earnings buying one of these super well managed companies looks like a great play now. 

[Dinar]

@Luca, if China's prospects are so bright, why are millions are so eager to flee?  

US and the West has massive problems (unchecked immigration, Islamic terrorism, welfare culture, terrible education system, political correctness run amok - everything is the fault of whites, males, heterosexuals, universities that preach Marxism and destruction of Western civilization, demographics, and the list goes on.)

 

Yes, China handles many problems much better than the West - Uighyr problem, infrastructure, no teaching in schools to lowest common denominator - unlike California algebra is not considered racist.  

However, nobody in their right mind who can escape China stays there - all the entrepreneurs, and successful professionals who can gladly flee at the first choice they get.  This does not bode well for China's future.  China's demographics are incredibly bad.  

[Luke]

39 minutes ago, Dinar said:

@Luca, if China's prospects are so bright, why are millions are so eager to flee?  

 

However, nobody in their right mind who can escape China stays there - all the entrepreneurs, and successful professionals who can gladly flee at the first choice they get.

 1.4b people call China their home and their families lived there for generations. There are 5m Chinese in the US, that's a bit more than 1% of the US population and 0.3% of China's population. Who is "fleeing"? 

 

In fact, many wealthy people flee western states and try to park their money in Third World countries where they pay 0% tax, is that good for prosperity and society? In Europe the problems are so severe, the underfunding, the middle class scrapping the bottom, wealthy people leave here too, in fact they will most often try to leave for more money. That is a sad aspect but reality. 

39 minutes ago, Dinar said:

 This does not bode well for China's future.  China's demographics are incredibly bad.  

Right now the world is in crisis, birth rates drop during war and economic trouble. In germany after 1945 birthrate went up from 1.9 to 2.5, especially when things get more prosperous. Thats on the government now but its not set in stone forever and automatization can catch up a bit as well. 

[Luke]

In the US, the country is run for capital owners, the same is true in most western countries. In China and Asia, the country is run more for society and the people. Investors are much safer in the US and West but on the same side they are facing huge inequality problems, corrupt governments, underinvestment etc. I think a country that encourages more growth for everyone by means of higher taxation will do better in the long run, although you probably can get more money in the west as long as there is no civil war. So you will have some prosperity payments in China, but it's not all for nothing since over long term, the revenue generation and nation wide wealth will be better. Wallstreet doesnt care at all about all that, but for long term investing this does matter. 

 

Edited December 8, 2023 by Luca

[Luke]

Its funny if you read through PDD earnings call, they play the game very well, pointing out SUSTAINABLE GROWTH and overall development etc and not something like "we make a shit ton of money and can squeeze consumers out". 

 

Its hard to find a proper balance between absolute corporate domination and too much state intervention and blocking. I agree that having a moat in china is not as valuable as having a moat in the US but i think due to the fierce market the CCP wants the economy and technology will do much better than here. 

[Luke]

If i look at my home, germany, and at our government and then extrapolate to 2050 and also look at China and their government and what goals they set themselves, i think life will look MUCH better in china than here.

China mid century Goals: 

New heights are reached in every dimension of material, political, cultural and ethical, social, and ecological advancement.

-- Modernization of China's system and capacity for governance is achieved.

-- China has become a global leader in terms of composite national strength and international influence.

-- Common prosperity for everyone is basically achieved.

-- The Chinese people enjoy happier, safer, and healthier lives.

"The Chinese nation will become a proud and active member of the community of nations," said Xi.

Edited December 8, 2023 by Luca

[Luke]

And its funny, that Biden literally sounds like Xi now: 

 

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/02/07/remarks-of-president-joe-biden-state-of-the-union-address-as-prepared-for-delivery/

 

And that’s always been my vision for our country.

To restore the soul of the nation.

 

To rebuild the backbone of America, the middle class.

To unite the country.

 

For decades, the middle class was hollowed out.

Too many good-paying manufacturing jobs moved overseas. Factories at home closed down.

 

Once-thriving cities and towns became shadows of what they used to be.

 

I ran for President to fundamentally change things, to make sure the economy works for everyone so we can all feel pride in what we do.

 

To build an economy from the bottom up and the middle out, not from the top down. Because when the middle class does well, the poor have a ladder up and the wealthy still do very well. We all do well.

 

Implementing caps on medication (COMMUNISM)!!!

 

This law also caps out-of-pocket drug costs for seniors on Medicare at a maximum $2,000 per year when there are in fact many drugs, like expensive cancer drugs, that can cost up to $10,000, $12,000, and $14,000 a year.

 

Instead, they used those record profits to buy back their own stock, rewarding their CEOs and shareholders.

 

That’s why I propose that we quadruple the tax on corporate stock buybacks to encourage long term investments instead.

 

Let’s finish the job and close the loopholes that allow the very wealthy to avoid paying their taxes.

 

 

So tonight, let’s all agree to stand up for seniors. Stand up and show them we will not cut Social Security. We will not cut Medicare.

Those benefits belong to the American people. They earned them.

 

Here’s my message to all of you out there: I have your back. We’re already preventing insurance companies from sending surprise medical bills, stopping 1 million surprise bills a month.

 

Capitalism without competition is not capitalism. It is exploitation.

 

I’ve made clear with President Xi that we seek competition, not conflict.

 

 

We are the United States of America and there is nothing, nothing
beyond our capacity if we do it together.

May God bless you all. May God protect our troops.