Political Posts

[Spekulatius]

Good summary of the current state in Ukraine:

 

[CGJB]

22 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

The Ukrainians need to be sent weapons & money quickly for a final push to secure some incremental victories and get to the negotiating table.

 

I could be wrong, but I doubt the Russians would negotiate with Zelensky. They tried that in Istanbul last year and the talks were making great progress only to be scuttled by the US/UK. That telegraphed to the Russians that Ukraine is a puppet state. So they will likely only negotiate with the US (with maybe a sprinkling of some European countries at the table for decoration). But Biden would have to eat a lot of crow to reach any peace deal that could realistically be achieved.

Think about it. Biden went to Warsaw last year and gave an angry speech that he ended by invoking God and calling for regime change in Russia. He was going to do whatever it took to give Ukraine whatever it needed to drive the Russians out of the Donbas and out of Crimea. No way does he want to shake hands with the Russian leadership he wanted toppled, and acknowledge that Crimea and the Donbas are now part of Russia.

What does Biden want? Right now, he just wants to keep this thing going past the elections in November 2024. He doesn't care how many Ukrainians and Russians needlessly die in the meantime.

[ValueArb]

4 hours ago, CGJB said:

 

I could be wrong, but I doubt the Russians would negotiate with Zelensky. They tried that in Istanbul last year and the talks were making great progress only to be scuttled by the US/UK. That telegraphed to the Russians that Ukraine is a puppet state. So they will likely only negotiate with the US (with maybe a sprinkling of some European countries at the table for decoration). But Biden would have to eat a lot of crow to reach any peace deal that could realistically be achieved.

Think about it. Biden went to Warsaw last year and gave an angry speech that he ended by invoking God and calling for regime change in Russia. He was going to do whatever it took to give Ukraine whatever it needed to drive the Russians out of the Donbas and out of Crimea. No way does he want to shake hands with the Russian leadership he wanted toppled, and acknowledge that Crimea and the Donbas are now part of Russia.

What does Biden want? Right now, he just wants to keep this thing going past the elections in November 2024. He doesn't care how many Ukrainians and Russians needlessly die in the meantime.

 

I doubt this narrative has much to do with reality. Zelenskyy has been firm that he doesn't want a repeat of the Minsk accords, meaning that he knows Putin can never be trusted. Russia is just trying to save face here by calling Ukraine a puppet, they tried to bully their way to an agreement and failed. 

 

There can never be peace in the Ukraine until Russia withdraws. Any agreement short of that is just a temporary cease fire while Russia rebuilds for the next invasion. The idea that Biden is preventing this is silly. 

[ValueArb]

On 12/16/2023 at 1:01 AM, changegonnacome said:

The EU, with the best of intentions, have done Ukraine in my opinion a great disservice by accepting their EU application and moving them to candidate status in recent days.

 

Zelensky, his country in ruins, principally as I've stated before from a failed policy of pivoting aggressively and recklessly to the West, as the leader of a country lets not forget that sits at the nexus point between the West and the East, continues to double down on this failed strategy. Poking the Russian bear again with EU membership talk when he is literally running out of money, men and munitions is a foolhardy move. Continuing with this plan, there wont be a Ukraine left to join anything - the EU, NATO etc.

 

While the EU is an economic union, the elite in Russia I'm sure view it as an interim step to NATO membership....regardless its ensured that whatever chance there was at frozen conflict driven by a Russian pause has gone out the window this last week......Russia will be redoubling its efforts now to re-take Kherson and then Odessa aiming to cripple Ukraine economically on a permanent basis. 

 

Battle line have moved hardly at all in the second half of 2023.......suspect 2024 will be the year of the Russian counter-offensive with increasing slices of Ukraine falling under Russian control testing the WH & Congress's resolve in an election year......its tough to fund a war at the best of times but what voters hate funding the most is a war (albeit a proxy one) where the US is demonstrably 'losing'.

 

Russian election interference wont require bots on facebook this time - it will be Russian victories in Kherson or Odessa next summer.

 

The politics in D.C. need to stop now - we are in a quagmire in Ukraine, no doubt about it......waist deep in the big muddy......the only move forward is too triple down on Ukranian support and give them whatever we can/should to hurt Russia and allow for some version of a Ukrainian victory with a small v.

 

Russia doesn't have the ability to mount an effective counter-offensive or it would have been them on the offensive this summer. There is no Russian bear, it's a cub with a small third world economy with population large enough to feed a ton of raw recruits into the grinder. They simply can't afford to replace most of their lost material that was built during the Soviet era when they had eastern Europe and all of the republics still enslaved. 

 

My guess is another rebellion in the ranks occurs before Russia can mount any kind of effective offensive, and this time the rebels aren't going to stand down early.

[CGJB]

16 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

 

I doubt this narrative has much to do with reality.

 

Ha! We'll just have to agree to disagree. But I'd much, much rather be holding Putin's hand right now than Zelensky's. And I don't think that will change. Time will tell.

 

[Parsad]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-real-estate-meltdown-battering-230000975.html

 

Cheers!

[Red Lion]

On 12/9/2023 at 9:48 AM, Luca said:

said above that if you think reducing taxes hard for the top 30% or making the market even more free will lead to any changes in US wealth distribution, we disagree and the research shows it too.

In the USA the top 5-10% are the only ones that pay significant taxes to the federal government (income taxes). The income tax burden is quite reasonable on most income earners. 
 

I just looked it up it takes a family $216,000 of income to be in the top 10% in the USA. Federal income tax for a family of 4 with that income is only about $30,000 with a marginal bracket of only 24%, and could be much lower with itemized deductions or retirement contributions. 
 

This is to illustrate the point that even an American family in  the 90th percentile isn’t a very heavy federal income taxpayer, either in absolute terms or in terms of the tax bracket itself. 
 

So whenever anyone talks about raising taxes on the top 30%, I wonder if you really think someone in the 75th percentile actually pays their “fair share”?

 

Or is this just another reason the 1% should pay for essentially everything, and still just sit and take the scorn and derision of the masses? 
 

 

Edited December 18, 2023 by RedLion

[Luke]

On 12/18/2023 at 3:50 AM, RedLion said:

In the USA the top 5-10% are the only ones that pay significant taxes to the federal government (income taxes). The income tax burden is quite reasonable on most income earners. 
 

I just looked it up it takes a family $216,000 of income to be in the top 10% in the USA. Federal income tax for a family of 4 with that income is only about $30,000 with a marginal bracket of only 24%, and could be much lower with itemized deductions or retirement contributions. 
 

This is to illustrate the point that even an American family in  the 90th percentile isn’t a very heavy federal income taxpayer, either in absolute terms or in terms of the tax bracket itself. 
 

So whenever anyone talks about raising taxes on the top 30%, I wonder if you really think someone in the 75th percentile actually pays their “fair share”?

 

Or is this just another reason the 1% should pay for essentially everything, and still just sit and take the scorn and derision of the masses? 
 

 

Its not only that id be for a different distribution of taxes like capital gains where small investor pays 0 and large fund pays more but also better opportunities for the average worker to negotiate wages etc hate it as much as you want and praise the 1% as much as you like, something has to be done to start investing into the countries basic infrastructure, education, affordable housing etc list is long. To me, China seems to be more concerned about these things than here, which was my original argument. Long term I think this will make their economy healthier, social unrest calmer etc.

 

 

Edited December 19, 2023 by Luca

[Red Lion]

I’m not praising the 1% I’m saying they are paying the vast majority of the taxes in the USA, yet populist rhetoric acts as if they are a robber baron class. 
 

In fact there’s a huge “investment” going into healthcare/education/etc  just a very low ROIC. 
 

I have a hard time wrapping my head around this china as a utopia idea. 

[Luke]

12 minutes ago, RedLion said:

I’m not praising the 1% I’m saying they are paying the vast majority of the taxes in the USA, yet populist rhetoric acts as if they are a robber baron class. 

Okay, so around 35% of the US total wealth is in the hands of 1% of the population while top 10% owns 70%, clearly the majority is funneled into the hands of the few, IMO this is too much and creates tensions in society, money being able to purchase political power and reinforcing that ownership. Bottom 50% owns 2.5% of US wealth. China sees these problems and asks legitimate questions about common prosperity, IMO. 

12 minutes ago, RedLion said:

In fact there’s a huge “investment” going into healthcare/education/etc  just a very low ROIC. 

Okay, so you would say the state of public infrastructure is fine, schools are doing fine etc and there is no underinvestment? In that case you will probably disagree highly with what China is doing and that is fair enough. 

12 minutes ago, RedLion said:

I have a hard time wrapping my head around this china as a utopia idea. 

Not an utopia but just a society that is a bit more equal and has more prosperity for bottom 50% that does not have to live as a "renting class" that gets a bad deal

Edited December 19, 2023 by Luca

[zippy1]

Is it really true that China has a more "equal" income distribution than US has?
I can't really see that from the data...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_income_equality

Edited December 20, 2023 by zippy1

[Luke]

1 hour ago, zippy1 said:

Is it really true that China has a more "equal" income distribution than US has?
I can't really see that from the data...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_income_equality

Not for now but they want it

[Dinar]

@Luca, the difference between those who have money and those who do not mostly comes from personal choices - some people are hard working, some are not, some are diligent savers and some are spendrifts.  I know plenty of people who have accumulated millions of dollars in wealth while never making more than $100K per annum, and I know plenty of people with $200k+ annual salaries and zero savings.  The difference is: one vacation per year vs four, treadmill at home vs personal trainer at the gym, new car every three years vs driving a car for ten years, having a dog and not having one, bringing breakfast and lunch to work and cooking dinner at home vs buying breakfast, lunch, dinner & getting coffee at Starbucks in the afternoon.

[RichardGibbons]

5 hours ago, RedLion said:

I have a hard time wrapping my head around this china as a utopia idea.

 

Yeah, I think that's largely because China is the country that today seems most likely to become an Orwellian dystopia, when you account for the social credit stuff.

 

"If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face— forever."

[Xerxes]

3 hours ago, Dinar said:

@Luca The difference is: one vacation per year vs four, treadmill at home vs personal trainer at the gym, new car every three years vs driving a car for ten years, having a dog and not having one, ….

 

somethings are worth it. 
others not 

[james22]

12 hours ago, Luca said:

Not for now but they want it

 

[Spekulatius]

10 hours ago, Xerxes said:

 

somethings are worth it. 
others not 

A dog is worth it and does not cost a fortune, if you treat them like dogs not like substitute children.

Edited December 20, 2023 by Spekulatius

[zippy1]

3 hours ago, james22 said:

 

Reading about this some, I can understand why they would think the inequality is an issue... It appears to be not only worse than Canada, Germany and Sweden, but also US. 
https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-inequality-undermining-chinas-prosperity

[Libs]

On 12/17/2023 at 7:23 AM, Spekulatius said:

Good summary of the current state in Ukraine:

 

Thanks Spec. 

Edited December 20, 2023 by Libs

[Dinar]

@Luca, Chinese do not seem to agree with you.  https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2023-chinese-migrants-us-border/?srnd=premium

[Luke]

2 minutes ago, Dinar said:

@Luca, Chinese do not seem to agree with you.  https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2023-chinese-migrants-us-border/?srnd=premium

Agree with me on what, the CCP is working on exactly these problems

[Dinar]

13 minutes ago, Luca said:

Agree with me on what, the CCP is working on exactly these problems

As opposed to you, the masses have zero faith that CCP is either working or will solve these problems.  Man, I wish you had spent thirteen years of your life living under communism, like I did.  You'd have a different perspective on CCP.  

[Luke]

Just now, Dinar said:

As opposed to you, the masses have zero faith that CCP is either working or will solve these problems.  Man, I wish you had spent thirteen years of your life living under communism, like I did.  You'd have a different perspective on CCP.  

They are talking about a few thousand refugees, i agree that there are problems of course but as it was with covid, when the masses start complaining they will shift, and we saw some of these policy shifts already

[Luke]

Also dont get why you would say they live under communism there, they have as much capitalism as other developed countries like germany etc

[Dinar]

1 minute ago, Luca said:

Also dont get why you would say they live under communism there, they have as much capitalism as other developed countries like germany etc

You do not understand a very simple concept.  Capitalism cannot function without  rule of law.  You do not have a rule of law in China.  Oh, and the article is talking about tens of thousands.  When I mentioned it to my friends from high school who are Chinese and live in an area with a lot of Chinese people, they stated that there has been a flood of people recently out of China in their neighborhood.