Political Posts

[John Hjorth]

9 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

...  Cashed out my VIX calls at the open, leaving a free ticket to any weekend fireworks on the table, then went to the beach. ...

 

Somehow, really kewl! LoL!  

[cubsfan]

19 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

It's just drama, youre right. Cashed out my VIX calls at the open, leaving a free ticket to any weekend fireworks on the table, then went to the beach.

 

Now that is the way to live!

[SharperDingaan]

1 hour ago, changegonnacome said:

Yep - but Europe has chips to trade that isn't straight €€€....they take off their side of the international Iranian sanctions

 

+1.

 

It isn't just the crude, it's also the ship registration 

Iran re-registers the Russian shadow fleet as Iranian, buys Russian cargo at a sanctions discount to re-brand it as Iranian, and resells in Rotterdam as unsanctioned oil . Transactions priced in Yuan/Euro, settled on the Chinese banking system, and the sanctions discount split 4 ways between Iran, EU, Russia, China. All purely bonus bucks .... and nothing to do with the actual tolling  

 

Have to think that ultimately, the Ukraine also gets folded into NATO in return for all Russian sanctions dropped, and an end to the war. Europe benefits, everyone within NATO now spending their 5%+, and diversifying military sourcing away from the US.

 

Could not have happened without Orange Boy.

 

SD

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 2 by SharperDingaan

[Parsad]

2 hours ago, RichardGibbons said:

 

Okay, thanks Sanjeev. That makes sense, and it's nice to know that I'm not insane.

 

The irony is that the issue isn't actually which country is in a better position--It's which people are better at handling adversity. TACO exists for a reason.

 

Yup.  Trump will give up his own children to save his ass!  He was built for TACO.  Cheers!

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, dealraker said:

Ole dealraker's only two predictions:

 

Inflation slowly gunna be on a steady but sure stroll up the staircase.  

 

Budget deficits hopping on the rocket ship which is and always will be Trump's signature outcome.  

 

 

 

Yup!  It's already happening.  I ordered my groceries for today and you can see large price jumps in a lot of areas.  It will continue month after month through the next 12 months unless they settle this in the next few weeks.  Very likely prices get somewhat absorbed if they can come to a quick conclusion, but I don't see that happening.  The allies work slowly, and it's still at least 2-3 weeks of attacks/bombings. 

 

It will be a tight Christmas for many...maybe the worst one since before the Pandemic.  At least people had money coming in during the pandemic from government sources...there is nothing going to be paid as people start losing jobs and expenses overrun budgets.  If food banks were strained the last two years, this year is going to wipe some out!  Cheers!

[Parsad]

58 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

Same to you John.  I think Sanjeev grew tired of my emails - best of two evils.  But if I had 30 days to live I'd rather not do it on his time table.

 

Actually you can thank Cubs. 

 

He had Pope Leo call me up and say it is Passover, you must free 73Reds to receive the blessings of Christ...plus he'll drive you effing crazy with his emails!  

 

So like Trump, I used my power to save myself any misery!    Cheers!

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, adesigar said:

Pam Bondi out.

 

LOL

 

 

Did you know she's 60?  She looks damn good for her age.  But she one crazy bit**! 

 

So long Pam!  Cheers!

 

 

Bondi leaving the Whitehouse!

 

 

 

[SharperDingaan]

26 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Cashed out my VIX calls at the open, leaving a free ticket to any weekend fireworks on the table, then went to the beach. I was talking to a friend this AM about how one really needs to appreciate this volatility. 

 

+1 

 

Used the opportunity for swing trading warrants ; sadly, the market isn't as liquid as we'd like!. Volatility amongst the junior o/g coy's should spike again around May when Q1 results are out; and the hedge book rollovers become public 

 

SD 

 

 

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, Castanza said:

 

Part of me is beginning to think this isn't about Iran for Trump, but instead about punishing Europe and countries he no longer perceives as allies. He is one vindictive son of a bitch and a petty one at that....The whole "go get your own oil" shifted my view on the purpose of this. Whenever politicians break out the classic Boogieman justifications I start looking at who's benefiting and which competitor is feeling the most pain. Bessent even said "The US will eventually own the SOH." Trump likes big shiny dick swinging assets. Is it feasible? idk, but if anyone is going to try and seize, occupy, and control the SOH it's Trump. I'm sure he'd love nothing more than charging the Hell out of the EU leaders with tolls. 

 

Who depends on the SOH the most? I believe Trump thinks at a very high yet simplistic level..

 

 

He wins either way...it's binary now. 

 

If he doesn't get it, that's ok...they fix it, he walks away, oil prices come down, he makes a fortune rebuilding Gaza and the value of the MIddle East/Israel goes through the roof.

 

If he gets it, he tolls ships, US owns an asset as valuable as the Panama Canal, sells weapons to defend and protect, oil prices come down, he makes a fortune rebuilding Gaza and the value of the Middle East/Israel goes through the roof.  

 

This he understands better than anyone...he gets his cake for sure, but he'll probably get the icing too!  Cheers!

[changegonnacome]

12 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

Could not have happened without Orange Boy.

 

Yep. Captain Chaos slowly dismantling the invisible American Empire painstakingly built by the greatest generation post-WWII that gave the United States a de facto toll booth on the global economy.....ironically torn down by a guy who never quite understood that big picture it was America "ripping off" the globe and not the other way around. Oh well time to make hay!

 

[Sweet]

5 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Yep. Captain Chaos slowly dismantling the invisible American Empire painstakingly built by the greatest generation post-WWII that gave the United States a de facto toll booth on the global economy.....ironically torn down by a guy who never quite understood that big picture it was America "ripping off" the globe and not the other way around. Oh well time to make hay!

 

As several others have said ITT, Trump is spectacularly good at identifying issues that need addressed - but his implementation has been awful.  I would be very supportive of his policies generally, but man has he sucked at implementing his agenda.

[Gregmal]

5 minutes ago, Sweet said:

As several others have said ITT, Trump is spectacularly good at identifying issues that need addressed - but his implementation has been awful.  I would be very supportive of his policies generally, but man has he sucked at implementing his agenda.

Well, to be fair, I think he saw pretty quickly how much of a waste of time it is trying to do anything "the traditional way" in his first term. All people do is undermine him, so it's easy to see why he just says fuck em. 

[Sweet]

6 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Well, to be fair, I think he saw pretty quickly how much of a waste of time it is trying to do anything "the traditional way" in his first term. All people do is undermine him, so it's easy to see why he just says fuck em. 

I understand why you would say that, but he’s also the embodiment of ‘every problem requires a hammer’.  He’s breaking more than he’s fixing.  I think I’d agree with most of his agenda though.

 

Thing is, I don’t know of anyone else who would be brave enough to take all this on.  Until someone else can grow a spine like him you are sorta stuck with all his flaws.

[Gregmal]

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Somehow, really kewl! LoL!  

Generally an acceptable way to spend the morning! 

[NnnnotSoSmart]

20 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Generally an acceptable way to spend the morning! 

Jamie Dimon on why companies are leaving New York:

 

Florida benefitting as well for many of the same reasons. Better beaches in FLA  than TX! Nice live photo. Reminds me of Ft. Meyers Beach in the 1960's! 

 

Edited April 2 by NnnnotSoSmart

[John Hjorth]

12 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Generally an acceptable way to spend the morning! 

 

F*** it all! - War here and there? - Life is great, isen't it?!  - [ I have to admit that I really have a problem with that sky! - Arrgghh!]

[cubsfan]

1 hour ago, Parsad said:

 

Actually you can thank Cubs. 

 

He had Pope Leo call me up and say it is Passover, you must free 73Reds to receive the blessings of Christ...plus he'll drive you effing crazy with his emails!  

 

So like Trump, I used my power to save myself any misery!    Cheers!

 

Haha - good one Sanjeev - like herding cats!

[73 Reds]

18 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

Haha - good one Sanjeev - like herding cats!

There is usually a method to the madness - like someone else we know.

[LC]

46 minutes ago, NnnnotSoSmart said:

Jamie Dimon on why companies are leaving New York:

 

Much more to do with banking becoming digitized and standardized. Much less raw talent needed.

 

Put it this way: is Jamie himself moving to Dallas? I don't think so! 

[John Hjorth]

2 hours ago, Parsad said:

Actually you can thank Cubs. 

 

He had Pope Leo call me up and say it is Passover, you must free 73Reds to receive the blessings of Christ...plus he'll drive you effing crazy with his emails!  

 

So like Trump, I used my power to save myself any misery!    Cheers!

 

23 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Haha - good one Sanjeev - like herding cats!

 

5 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

There is usually a method to the madness - like someone else we know.

 

HaHa!  

 

<John, note to self, if ever banned on CofB&F, just start carpet bombing Sanjeev [ @Parsad ] with e-mails, to get back in!> HaHa! 

[NnnnotSoSmart]

 

6 minutes ago, LC said:

 

Much more to do with banking becoming digitized and standardized. Much less raw talent needed.

 

Put it this way: is Jamie himself moving to Dallas? I don't think so! 

 

TX + NY headcount was 46,000 now 59,000?  Looks like more talent was needed.

 

Jamie at 70, like many of us, unlikely to move for a number of of different non-work related reasons.

[LC]

1 hour ago, NnnnotSoSmart said:

 

 

TX + NY headcount was 46,000 now 59,000?  Looks like more talent was needed.

 

Jamie at 70, like many of us, unlikely to move for a number of of different non-work related reasons.

 

Well, bodies =/= talent

 

And on Jamie - many of us are not billionaire CEOs of global banks.

What did Uncle Ben say ? "With great power comes great responsibility"...in other words, put up or shut up, Jamie! 

[ourkid8]

6 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

The reason for the protests is that Iran is a theocratic hell hole. 

 

Spoken by someone who has never been to Iran. This quote sums up your response perfectly -  “To travel is to discover that everyone is wrong about other countries.”
 

[Spekulatius]

7 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

And the Europeans if they are smart here diverge from the US on sanctions....if you look at all the talk prior to the war around what a deal could look like if Iran played ball the sanctions relief put on the table by the US wasn't US sanctions (that would be too embarrassing for Trump), what was put on the table was 'international' sanctions being dropped, that was the carrot.....for international sanctions it fundamentally boils down to European sanctions......probably time for Europe to put on their big boy pants and drop sanctions against Iran for safe passage of European bound shipping.....make me president of Europe and I'd also have Nord Stream One turned back on.

 

Quite funny if we end up with even half of the above......make America Great again....by giving Iran a toll booth on 20% of global energy and 30% of global fertilizers, defrost economic relations between the Europeans and Iran and give Europe a reason to potentially inch closer to the Russians.....MAGA indeed.

 

 

I doubt Europe goes closer to Russia.

 

I think the deals with Iran (if they occur)  will mostly be under the table. Probably really paid for by the Gulf states who need to get their stuff out. We would know if Trump really bails and the tankers start to go through the straight nevertheless.

 

Of course a lot of other scenarios are possible but that’s one that isn’t too unlikely. Not a status quo that anyone is really happy about it but it sort of works for everyone.

Edited April 2 by Spekulatius

[Spekulatius]

19 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

Yup, it was a mess of a speech, but he's now forcing those that need the oil to clean up the mess...and probably relatively quickly. 

 

They will pave (literally) the way, but Europe, Asia and our Middle Eastern friends, you bring out the vacuum and wallet if you don't want to walk to empty grocery stores tomorrow.  If the Strait is closed and the U.S. doesn't allow Iran to sell oil, well Iran's economy is up shit's creek too!  Empty grocery stores, shortages, restlessness by citizens against the regime...U.S. will just wait it out. 

 

Cheers!

I listened to a summary. Why did he do this speech at all? It was a word salad as usual with the typical combination of grievances and the threats but he said nothing new at all. Everything was already announced before.