Political Posts

[Blake Hampton]

1 hour ago, changegonnacome said:

"When you ain't got nothing, you got nothing to lose"

 

I agree.

 

The primary reason behind the protests Trump likes to bring up so much was actually their currency collapsing. I believe it initially had something to do with a large bank and nepotism: WS: The Obscure Bank Collapse That Sent Iran Into a Tailspin. I even read an article a while back that described living in Iran even before all that started, and it still sounded absolutely terrible: rolling blackouts, no access to water, extreme poverty, etc.

 

But America on the other hand... lol.

 

I hate Trump, but goddamn it if he isn’t a good reflection of us, I don’t know what is.

 

Edited April 2 by Blake Hampton

[Blake Hampton]

Trump: The man who was born with everything but yet has learned nothing.

 

Sounds like America to me.

[changegonnacome]

3 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

The primary reason behind the protests Trump like to bring up so much was actually their currency collapsing

 

The reason for the protests is that Iran is a theocratic hell hole. 

 

Edited April 2 by changegonnacome

[Blake Hampton]

3 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

The reason for the protests is that Iran is a theocratic hell hole. 

Currency collapse is a happy little side effect of that.

[RichardGibbons]

9 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

You're essentially right.  But if you do not rely on the restricted source, have enough domestic and neighbor production to avoid your own shortage, who is going to suffer more than you?  Most likely the countries that needed that Strait opened yesterday, as well as Iran since they cannot sell their oil to anyone. 

 

Pain for the U.S....yes...pain for the world...yes...but U.S. probably will have it slightly easier than most others and Trump thinks he'll outlast them.  Cheers!

 

Okay, thanks Sanjeev. That makes sense, and it's nice to know that I'm not insane.

 

The irony is that the issue isn't actually which country is in a better position--It's which people are better at handling adversity. TACO exists for a reason.

[SharperDingaan]

1 hour ago, changegonnacome said:

But it terms of making money off this nonsense.....and if anyone hasn't noticed.....you go long Monday, Tuesday when Trump is pretending a deal is close....and go short Thursday/Friday into the weekend when the market realizes there are no actual serious talks happening and folks can't bear to hold any risk going into the weekend in case Trump does something escalatory......retail trading sardines are the best vehicle.

 

Shush .... 

 

The reality is that there will be a toll booth across both the SOH and the Red Sea. The mechanics discussion already underway; most would expect the  initial outcomes to be a resumption of goods flow and reparations paid to all the Gulf states, versus just Iran.

 

Sure the US could simultaneously blow up all the Iranian power plants, but it also stops Iranian oil production, along with desalination, and the uranium centrifuges. Stops the 1.2M b/d that is actually flowing out of the SOH, and invites eye for and eye retaliation; you take our water, we take yours, we all die together. Piss and wind.

 

It is now quite obvious, the marines are there to retrieve the uranium produced to date. Grab it, go home, and show it to the US public as proof of justification; no different to displaying gold bars in the bank window to circumvent a bank run. Of course ...... no independent checks, confirming that what is in the window, is not actually US uranium .... 'cause the Iranian uranium couldn't be found   

 

Notable is that tolling applies to both o/g and goods flow in both directions, and disproportionately hits Europe more; outbound gulf crude bound for Rotterdam via the Suez paying tolls 3 times (SOH, Suez Canal, Gibraltar). The US also gets to toll the North West and North East passage at the west end; with Russian and Greenland tolling at the east end. Southbound pipelines to Canada's west and east coasts, avoiding the tolls, and applying the savings to the cost of the infrastructure build. 

 

Have to think that once the choke point tolling mechanisms are formalised, Canada becomes a quasi Gulf state; east coast crude/LNG exports bound for Europe, west coast crude/LNG exports bound for Asia, north coast crude/LNG exports bound for everyone else and the US. Most likely with state-of-the refining capacity in Canada as well.

 

The immortal Timbuk 3; Futures so bright I gotta wear shades 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8qrriKcwvlY

 

SD

Edited April 2 by SharperDingaan

[dealraker]

Ole dealraker's only two predictions:

 

Inflation slowly gunna be on a steady but sure stroll up the staircase.  

 

Budget deficits hopping on the rocket ship which is and always will be Trump's signature outcome.  

 

 

[John Hjorth]

Especially for those still defending POTUS' decisions and actions - are you out of your freaking mind?!

 

 

[changegonnacome]

24 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

Sure the US could simultaneously blow up all the Iranian power plants, but it also stops Iranian oil production, along with desalination, and the uranium centrifuges. Stops the 1.2M b/d that is actually flowing out of the SOH, and invites eye for and eye retaliation; you take our water, we take yours, we all die together. Piss and wind.

 

Yep. It's a plan only Lynsey Graham could come up with.

 

24 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

Notable is that tolling applies to both o/g and goods flow in both directions, and disproportionately hits Europe more; outbound gulf crude bound for Rotterdam via the Suez paying tolls 3 times (SOH, Suez Canal, Gibraltar).

 

Yep - but Europe has chips to trade that isn't straight €€€....they take off their side of the international Iranian sanctions - sure it would piss of the US but the US didn't bother to consult with them on all this anyway and one can argue that US foreign policy tinkering in fueling deeply pro-US regime in the Ukraine (burisma anyone!) and now the excursion in. the Gulf has been a large contributor to European prosperity getting nuked (forgive the pun) in the last five years as their main energy supplies have gone offline for geopolitical reasons.

 

When the international system splinters like this - it's every man for himself and deals get cut that you never thought possible in the old paradigm. Very interesting times!

 

Edited April 2 by changegonnacome

[frommi]

36 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

It is now quite obvious, the marines are there to retrieve the uranium produced to date. Grab it, go home, and show it to the US public as proof of justification; no different to displaying gold bars in the bank window to circumvent a bank run. Of course ...... no independent checks, confirming that what is in the window, is not actually US uranium .... 'cause the Iranian uranium couldn't be found   

Maybe you should let trump now about it, so he can win again. 
Or the market already knows and thats why we are up today after starting the day at -2% with no real positive news.

[73 Reds]

1 hour ago, dealraker said:

Yes.  To 80% of my locals here, many who are not at all poor thinkers, electing Trump wasn't just logical it was survival.  Many of those openly discuss him being immoral, a fraud, the world's greatest liar, and so forth.  I'd think up until this point if the election were repeated 95% would vote the same.

 

Media headline: "Trump Lied!"  Voters: "So what?   What the hell else do you want us to vote for? Look what he says he stands for vs what the others say."

You've got some smart locals in your parts.

[John Hjorth]

10 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

You've got some smart locals in your parts.

 

I'm happy to see you around here on CofB&F again, @73 Reds ! Happy Easter to your family and you!

Edited April 2 by John Hjorth

[Castanza]

1 hour ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Yes but why would the US go up an uncertain escalatory ladder here at all? Trump said it himself - they are watching the nuclear 'dust', they are back to the stone age and we can at will go back and bomb anything we want inside Iran. My point is this - regime change is the incremental prize here. Right? The incremental costs to achieve it are large and achieving it even then is uncertain. Trump's instincts are right - you walk away here. Defanging Iran had the right R/R - beyond that the R/R math changes.

 

 

Part of me is beginning to think this isn't about Iran for Trump, but instead about punishing Europe and countries he no longer perceives as allies. He is one vindictive son of a bitch and a petty one at that....The whole "go get your own oil" shifted my view on the purpose of this. Whenever politicians break out the classic Boogieman justifications I start looking at who's benefiting and which competitor is feeling the most pain. Bessent even said "The US will eventually own the SOH." Trump likes big shiny dick swinging assets. Is it feasible? idk, but if anyone is going to try and seize, occupy, and control the SOH it's Trump. I'm sure he'd love nothing more than charging the Hell out of the EU leaders with tolls. 

 

Who depends on the SOH the most? I believe Trump thinks at a very high yet simplistic level..

 

Edited April 2 by Castanza

[73 Reds]

1 minute ago, John Hjorth said:

 

I'm happy to see you around here on CofB&F again, @73 Reds ! Happy Easter your family and you!

Same to you John.  I think Sanjeev grew tired of my emails - best of two evils.  But if I had 30 days to live I'd rather not do it on his time table.

[adesigar]

Pam Bondi out.

 

LOL

 

Edited April 2 by adesigar

[John Hjorth]

1 minute ago, 73 Reds said:

Same to you John.  I think Sanjeev grew tired of my emails - best of two evils.  But if I had 30 days to live I'd rather not do it on his time table.

 

@73 Reds,

 

Let's move on, to get even more richer, by discussing, talking, more discussing with each other!  

[73 Reds]

Just now, John Hjorth said:

 

@73 Reds,

 

Let's move on, to get even more richer, by discussing, talking, more discussing with each other!  

You bet!  I was following your discussion with @gfp about knives and wives.  Scary combination that is!

[changegonnacome]

10 minutes ago, Castanza said:

Part of me is beginning to think this isn't about Iran for Trump, but instead about punishing Europe and countries he no longer perceives as allies. He is one vindictive son of a bitch and a petty one at that.

 

Nah he went for what he thought would be a quick and decisive victory in Iran (regime collapse)....he had conquering hero visions and Bibi slipped him the kernel of that dream via Mossad intel that the regime was close to the edge, they just needed a 'nudge'......it didn't work out, clearly....and he's doing what Trump has done his whole life when things don't work out for him, he blames others and looks for a scapegoat.....the scapegoats here are the cowardly Europeans/NATO....in 2020 it was mysterious election fraud....two weeks ago it was Kristi Noem and today its Pam Bondi. No vindictiveness just a guy who can admit he's wrong, made a mistake, its always someone else's fault!

 

Edited April 2 by changegonnacome

[Gregmal]

Man... what an awesome morning. Always interesting watching folks

 

Edited April 2 by Gregmal

[cubsfan]

17 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

I'm happy to see you around here on CofB&F again, @73 Reds ! Happy Easter to your family and you!

 

Damn right @73 Reds - welcome back!

You too @Xerxes!

[Castanza]

3 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Man... what an awesome morning. Always interesting watching folks

 

 

What's your read on the situation from a high level? Frankly I have no clue...I don't think this is longer than a few months though and the world will adapt as we always do. Outrage culture has made everyone since covid think every political event is the next big one. 

[cubsfan]

Trump really upsetting Europe.

 

Just think: you destroy one of the biggest risks in the world, a nuclear terrorist state.  Then you PROVE and destroy the terrorist's ability to REACH Europe - and embarrass the Europeans at the same time - since they believed the nonsense that Iran had no nuclear ambitions AND missile delivery capabilities- and now the Euros are livid.

 

Spain, Italy, France, UK,,,,  ---- Keep 'em.

 

Time to fend for yourselves,,, American public opinion turning quickly.

 

Oh well, the USA has found out who our real allies are - and it sure as hell ain't the Europeans.

 

Thank goodness we have Israel and some Asians.

 

Bye-bye NATO.

[Gregmal]

12 minutes ago, Castanza said:

 

What's your read on the situation from a high level? Frankly I have no clue...I don't think this is longer than a few months though and the world will adapt as we always do. Outrage culture has made everyone since covid think every political event is the next big one. 

It's just drama, youre right. Cashed out my VIX calls at the open, leaving a free ticket to any weekend fireworks on the table, then went to the beach.

 

Seriously though, it's something to behold. I was talking to a friend this AM about how one really needs to appreciate this volatility. We probably wont have a volatility machine like Trump again for awhile, as the combination of Trump being batshit crazy, such a high % of the populous being utterly deranged when it comes to dealing with anything tangentially related to Trump, and then Trump being a slave to the stock market...oh boy its a wicked fun concoction. I mean every time Trump uses the wrong adjective, we get a mental breakdown and a trading opportunity LOL whats not to like? 

 

We can sit around and do the attention seeking drama bullshit....

 

-"If gas goes to $7 a gallon".... the world will get on with itself just as we have before, but heck, then everyone temporarily gets to see what it'd be like living in California or Europe....so what?

 

-"It might tip us into a recession"...OK and? LOL those happen sometimes

 

-"the market could go down"....so what? LOL

 

Whole lotta drama, lot of easy trading/vol money out there to grab, but Id gander just like normal, ones OK simply ignoring the crowds of hysterics and flavor of the month macro pontificators. This should be in the rearview shortly....folks will get on with their lives, and folks will move on to gossiping about the next stupid/crazy/genius thing Trump decides to feed them. 

Edited April 2 by Gregmal

[John Hjorth]

23 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

I'm happy to see you around here on CofB&F again, @73 Reds ! Happy Easter to your family and you!

 

22 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

Same to you John.  I think Sanjeev grew tired of my emails - best of two evils.  But if I had 30 days to live I'd rather not do it on his time table.

 

6 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Damn right @73 Reds - welcome back!

You too @Xerxes!

 

17 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

@73 Reds,

 

Let's move on, to get even more richer, by discussing, talking, more discussing with each other!  

 

Last week was a sad CofB&F one! Let's work on it never happens again!   I personally hope to see @Xerxes around here again!

[Castanza]

5 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

It's just drama, youre right. Cashed out my VIX calls at the open, leaving a free ticket to any weekend fireworks on the table, then went to the beach.

 

Seriously though, it's something to behold. I was talking to a friend this AM about how one really needs to appreciate this volatility. We probably wont have a volatility machine like Trump again for awhile, as the combination of Trump being batshit crazy, such a high % of the populous being utterly deranged when it comes to dealing with anything tangentially related to Trump, and then Trump being a slave to the stock market...oh boy its a wicked fun concoction. I mean every time Trump uses the wrong adjective, we get a trading opportunity LOL whats not to like? 

 

We can sit around and do the attention seeking drama bullshit....

 

-"If gas goes to $7 a gallon".... the world will get on with itself just as we have before, but heck, then everyone temporarily gets to see what it'd be like living in California or Europe....so what?

 

-"It might tip us into a recession"...OK and? LOL those happen sometimes

 

-"the market could go down"....so what? LOL

 

Whole lotta drama, lot of easy trading/vol money out there to grab, but Id gander just like normal, ones OK simply ignoring the crowds of hysterics and flavor of the month macro pontificators. This should be in the rearview shortly....folks will get on with their lives, and folks will move on to gossiping about the next stupid/crazy/genius thing Trump decides to feed them. 

 

Pays to be a cynic as an investor...