Political Posts

[RichardGibbons]

So I'm confused.  Many people on this board seem to buy into this narrative that it doesn't matter to America if the strait remains closed because most of the oil is going to Europe and Asia.

 

But my understanding is that oil markets are global, so American consumers will suffer much higher oil prices if the Strait remains closed.  Like, if prices in Europe are high, then America will ship oil there rather than keep it in the the USA, causing American energy prices to increase.

 

Is this sudden lack of understanding that the oil market is global just the usual MAGA derangement thing? Or am I missing something? (Because the disconnect seems so blatantly stupid that I feel like I must be missing something, which is possible, because I'm not great at macroeconomics, particularly when it comes to global commodity markets.)

[Parsad]

29 minutes ago, RichardGibbons said:

So I'm confused.  Many people on this board seem to buy into this narrative that it doesn't matter to America if the strait remains closed because most of the oil is going to Europe and Asia.

 

But my understanding is that oil markets are global, so American consumers will suffer much higher oil prices if the Strait remains closed.  Like, if prices in Europe are high, then America will ship oil there rather than keep it in the the USA, causing American energy prices to increase.

 

Is this sudden lack of understanding that the oil market is global just the usual MAGA derangement thing? Or am I missing something? (Because the disconnect seems so blatantly stupid that I feel like I must be missing something, which is possible, because I'm not great at macroeconomics, particularly when it comes to global commodity markets.)

 

You're essentially right.  But if you do not rely on the restricted source, have enough domestic and neighbor production to avoid your own shortage, who is going to suffer more than you?  Most likely the countries that needed that Strait opened yesterday, as well as Iran since they cannot sell their oil to anyone. 

 

Pain for the U.S....yes...pain for the world...yes...but U.S. probably will have it slightly easier than most others and Trump thinks he'll outlast them.  Cheers!

[frommi]

Nobody will do something military about it. This will just mean countries trade more with Iran in some way or the other as a concession to get oil.

Very short-sightened.

And the high oil prices just benefit Russia and Iran while they trade freely with China. (where they get the next round of weapons in exchange for oil)
Btw. europe needs LNG in October, doubt Trump will be in force that long when oil prices stay high.

[Spekulatius]

8 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

Yup, it was a mess of a speech, but he's now forcing those that need the oil to clean up the mess...and probably relatively quickly. 

 

They will pave (literally) the way, but Europe, Asia and our Middle Eastern friends, you bring out the vacuum and wallet if you don't want to walk to empty grocery stores tomorrow.  If the Strait is closed and the U.S. doesn't allow Iran to sell oil, well Iran's economy is up shit's creek too!  Empty grocery stores, shortages, restlessness by citizens against the regime...U.S. will just wait it out. 

 

Cheers!

Just pay the $2M fee for each tanker. $1 per barrel. Cheap unless they decide to raise the prices. Eventually the Gulf states will have to clean up the mess. It’s their neighborhood.

 

In the future, the gulf states will spent way more on defense.

Edited April 2 by Spekulatius

[Castanza]

7 hours ago, cwericb said:

Prices for both are going through the roof, so it is hard not to hope the SOH stay closed for a while. And it is planting time in the US. 

It mostly affect next years planting season not this one. Most farmers of scale have already purchased their fert and soil amendments for the year months ago. 

[Gregmal]

WTF? They promised us tacos and off ramps? Did they lie? 

[John Hjorth]

1 hour ago, Castanza said:

It mostly affect next years planting season not this one. Most farmers of scale have already purchased their fert and soil amendments for the year months ago. 

 

Yes, lot's of hedging going on in agriculture, related to both input and output.

[Parsad]

24 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

WTF? They promised us tacos and off ramps? Did they lie? 

 

Well, he did kind of TACO again...just no off ramp and the freeway is only moving on the carpool lane!    Cheers!

[dealraker]

7 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

You're essentially right.  But if you do not rely on the restricted source, have enough domestic and neighbor production to avoid your own shortage, who is going to suffer more than you?  Most likely the countries that needed that Strait opened yesterday, as well as Iran since they cannot sell their oil to anyone. 

 

Pain for the U.S....yes...pain for the world...yes...but U.S. probably will have it slightly easier than most others and Trump thinks he'll outlast them.  Cheers!

Wording-wording, I do you pen it well, I often fail.  A simple and short try:  Trump wants others to lose as equally as much as he wants to win.  Most think "him" winning is or means the overall US winning.  That's where I think there is some let down of the guard so to speak.  Trump is for Trump, his money, power, status, his success at self-aggrandizing, etc.

 

What Trump wants for the US of A is something I do not think is at all understood correctly.  I think he is programmed to want all others to fail unless of course their role is promoting him.

Edited April 2 by dealraker

[Parsad]

13 minutes ago, dealraker said:

Wording-wording, I do you pen it well, I often fail.  A simple and short try:  Trump wants others to lose as equally as much as he wants to win.  Most think "him" winning is or means the overall US winning.  That's where I think there is some let down of the guard so to speak.  Trump is for Trump, his money, power, status, his success at self-aggrandizing, etc.

 

What Trump wants for the US of A is something I do not think is at all understood correctly.  I think he is programmed to want all others to fail unless of course their role is promoting him.

 

Problem is, he considers a loss a "win" regardless.  I don't think he's ever said once that he lost at something or isn't the best at something.  And if it's clearly obvious he lost, he usually blames someone else for the loss...never, ever been his fault.  God, he must have been one spoiled son of a bitch as a kid!  Cheers!

[LC]

The amount of rear-view-mirror explanation going on here is amazing.

 

Trump is chaotic nonsense, whether you call that smart or stupid just depends on your biases. 

 

The fact that people elected someone like Trump to power does show how stupid the mob mentality can be. 

[Hektor]

13 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

Problem is, he considers a loss a "win" regardless.  I don't think he's ever said once that he lost at something or isn't the best at something.  And if it's clearly obvious he lost, he usually blames someone else for the loss...never, ever been his fault.  God, he must have been one spoiled son of a bitch as a kid!  Cheers!

Something like this 

 

 

[changegonnacome]

11 hours ago, Parsad said:

If the Strait is closed and the U.S. doesn't allow Iran to sell oil, well Iran's economy is up shit's creek too! 

 

Yeah sure but you're forgetting the asymmetry here and who has more to lose.

 

Iran's economy was up shits creek along time ago if you haven't noticed...40yrs of sanctions, the current war decimating it....its already a dump, and getting dumpier by the day and the majority of the population are living in poverty already...what did Bob Dylan say.....

 

"When you ain't got nothing, you got nothing to lose"

 

....you dont play a game of who's economic vehicle is going to get wrecked here when one person is driving a beaten up 1972 Honda Civic (Iran) and the other person a brand new Escalade (US/West/GCC).........Iran has reached escalation dominance here not because they are somehow powerful with great options but precisely because they are so weak with so little left to lose and are engaged in an existential fight for regime survival. The problem with escalation here is they still retain just enough latent military/gorilla warfare capability in reserve to respond to our escalations that they can substantially hurt us by wrecking the Middle East and the Global economy and the reality is you take any escalatory step you can think off and it does not end with the Iranian regime collapsing. The r/r for Trump is terrible here.

 

Trump needs to put on his best spray tan in a few weeks time and sell the shit out of a stalemate and somehow call it a win OR the dumb alternative which is to sell the shit out of an escalatory step that drives gas to $6 at pumps and the US/globe into recession all while the same regime is running Iran and he still hasn't got a deal or the nuclear 'dust' and somehow call that a win.

 

 

 

Edited April 2 by changegonnacome

[changegonnacome]

But it terms of making money off this nonsense.....and if anyone hasn't noticed.....you go long Monday, Tuesday when Trump is pretending a deal is close....and go short Thursday/Friday into the weekend when the market realizes there are no actual serious talks happening and folks can't bear to hold any risk going into the weekend in case Trump does something escalatory......retail trading sardines are the best vehicle.

[Marco Van Basten]

I would like to make an observation: the person who probably knows and understands the situation the best, says the least.  It's a good thing to keep in mind in all areas of life....

 

[changegonnacome]

3 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Just pay the $2M fee for each tanker. $1 per barrel. Cheap unless they decide to raise the prices. Eventually the Gulf states will have to clean up the mess. It’s their neighborhood.

 

In the future, the gulf states will spent way more on defense.

 

And the Europeans if they are smart here diverge from the US on sanctions....if you look at all the talk prior to the war around what a deal could look like if Iran played ball the sanctions relief put on the table by the US wasn't US sanctions (that would be too embarrassing for Trump), what was put on the table was 'international' sanctions being dropped, that was the carrot.....for international sanctions it fundamentally boils down to European sanctions......probably time for Europe to put on their big boy pants and drop sanctions against Iran for safe passage of European bound shipping.....make me president of Europe and I'd also have Nord Stream One turned back on.

 

Quite funny if we end up with even half of the above......make America Great again....by giving Iran a toll booth on 20% of global energy and 30% of global fertilizers, defrost economic relations between the Europeans and Iran and give Europe a reason to potentially inch closer to the Russians.....MAGA indeed.

 

 

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, LC said:

The amount of rear-view-mirror explanation going on here is amazing.

 

Trump is chaotic nonsense, whether you call that smart or stupid just depends on your biases. 

 

The fact that people elected someone like Trump to power does show how stupid the mob mentality can be. 

 

Again, you are making the same mistake as others and discounting how he won...not once, but twice!  And the time he lost, he didn't lose by that much.  That has to mean something or say something...everyone cannot be in the mob mentality or are stupid.  Cheers!

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, Hektor said:

Something like this 

 

 

 

Exactly!  Cheers!

[Parsad]

45 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Yeah sure but you're forgetting the asymmetry here and who has more to lose.

 

Iran's economy was up shits creek along time ago if you haven't noticed...40yrs of sanctions, the current war decimating it....its already a dump, and getting dumpier by the day and the majority of the population are living in poverty already...what did Bob Dylan say.....

 

"When you ain't got nothing, you got nothing to lose"

 

....you dont play a game of who's economic vehicle is going to get wrecked here when one person is driving a beaten up 1972 Honda Civic (Iran) and the other person a brand new Escalade (US/West/GCC).........Iran has reached escalation dominance here not because they are somehow powerful with great options but precisely because they are so weak with so little left to lose and are engaged in an existential fight for regime survival. The problem with escalation here is they still retain just enough latent military/gorilla warfare capability in reserve to respond to our escalations that they can substantially hurt us by wrecking the Middle East and the Global economy and the reality is you take any escalatory step you can think off and it does not end with the Iranian regime collapsing. The r/r for Trump is terrible here.

 

Trump needs to put on his best spray tan in a few weeks time and sell the shit out of a stalemate and somehow call it a win OR the dumb alternative which is to sell the shit out of an escalatory step that drives gas to $6 at pumps and the US/globe into recession all while the same regime is running Iran and he still hasn't got a deal or the nuclear 'dust' and somehow call that a win.

 

 

 

 

The U.S. isn't going to run out of water.  The U.S. isn't going to run out of food.  Also highly unlikely there will an uprising to create a regime change in the U.S., but with no food and water...well! 

 

Look at Cuba...won't be long before the citizens there will take a deal like Venezuela.  Cheers!

[Parsad]

30 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

But it terms of making money off this nonsense.....and if anyone hasn't noticed.....you go long Monday, Tuesday when Trump is pretending a deal is close....and go short Thursday/Friday into the weekend when the market realizes there are no actual serious talks happening and folks can't bear to hold any risk going into the weekend in case Trump does something escalatory......retail trading sardines are the best vehicle.

 

I'm not trading much at all other than one trading account.  I've put a lot of permanent capital into stuff that I plan on holding long-term in the non-trading accounts. 

 

Yeah, there's volatility and markets could fall more if things get worse, but you just keep selling the more expensive stuff and buy cheaper quality stuff...as long as you aren't paying a lot of built-up capital gains.  Markets will eventually bottom and they will turn.  Cheers!  

[Parsad]

14 minutes ago, Marco Van Basten said:

I would like to make an observation: the person who probably knows and understands the situation the best, says the least.  It's a good thing to keep in mind in all areas of life....

 

 

That's probably right...Buffett knows the most, Trump knows the least!    Cheers!

[changegonnacome]

10 minutes ago, Parsad said:

The U.S. isn't going to run out of water.  The U.S. isn't going to run out of food.  Also highly unlikely there will an uprising to create a regime change in the U.S., but with no food and water...well! 

 

Yes but why would the US go up an uncertain escalatory ladder here at all? Trump said it himself - they are watching the nuclear 'dust', they are back to the stone age and we can at will go back and bomb anything we want inside Iran. My point is this - regime change is the incremental prize here. Right? The incremental costs to achieve it are large and achieving it even then is uncertain. Trump's instincts are right - you walk away here. Defanging Iran had the right R/R - beyond that the R/R math changes.

 

Edited April 2 by changegonnacome

[Parsad]

2 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Yes but why would the US go up an uncertain escalatory ladder here at all? Trump said it himself - they are watching the nuclear 'dust', they are back to the stone age and we can at will we go back and bomb them. My point is this - regime change is the incremental prize here. Right? The incremental costs to achieve it are large and achieving it even then is uncertain. Trump's instincts are right - you walk away here. Defanging Iran had the right R/R - beyond that the R/R math changes.

 

I don't think they will escalate it...for example, no ground troops.  But they will probably take out more key sites and defensive positions with bombs and missiles, to force negotiations between Iran and U.S. allies/Middle Eastern countries, and help clean up the mess once it all ends. 

 

If the people who live in the region, or depend on the movement of oil/resources through there, won't fight for it and stand up for it once all the dirty work is done...well that says alot!  And Trump has already taken all of the blame (and rightfully so, as he did it essentially unilaterally).  Cheers!

[dealraker]

44 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

Again, you are making the same mistake as others and discounting how he won...not once, but twice!  And the time he lost, he didn't lose by that much.  That has to mean something or say something...everyone cannot be in the mob mentality or are stupid.  Cheers!

Yes.  To 80% of my locals here, many who are not at all poor thinkers, electing Trump wasn't just logical it was survival.  Many of those openly discuss him being immoral, a fraud, the world's greatest liar, and so forth.  I'd think up until this point if the election were repeated 95% would vote the same.

 

Media headline: "Trump Lied!"  Voters: "So what?   What the hell else do you want us to vote for? Look what he says he stands for vs what the others say."

Edited April 2 by dealraker

[changegonnacome]

1 minute ago, Parsad said:

I don't think they will escalate it...for example, no ground troops.  But they will probably take out more key sites and defensive positions with bombs and missiles, to force negotiations between Iran and U.S. allies/Middle Eastern countries, and help clean up the mess once it all ends. 

 

Totally agree....for sure the US should continue with the current level of intensity, destroying installations, key sites and offensive capabilities from the air..continue the defanging, I'm all for it....this level of the escalation ladder is a very comfortable place for the US to be with excellent ROI and plays to our strength in conventional warfare. 

 

Trump is very insightful below.....this is where his NYC property developer instincts are perfect, he understands leverage and the guy understands edge. 

 

"The problem with the strait, a guy can take a mine, drop it in the water, and say, ‘Oh, it's unsafe.’…or you can take a machine gun from the shore, shoot a little few bullets on a ship or maybe an over the shoulder missile. That's not for us"

 

 

Props to Trump...you should only play in games where you have an edge. The US has an unbelievable edge in conventional warfare....and that edge diminishes greatly once you step outside that as we found out in Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan.