Parsad Posted March 30 Posted March 30 31 minutes ago, dealraker said: After my stint in the bank/insurance analyst thing I was very active as a licensed contractor and built 52 houses, most custom, but on the side I was doing lakefront spec houses. Built 13 Burger Kings and a couple apartment complexes, all good. But then? Whoops! Here comes 20% interest rates and plus 12% mortgage rates... and 7 of my spec houses had several birthdays before I could sell them. This happens when my work dried up to about nothing. I was a one meal a day man for a while, luckily I was single. I went to my banker at BB and T and said, "I can pay you but it will be a bit late." He replied, "Oh, don't worry, nobody else is on time either and we sure as hell don't want your houses." Luckily it quickly fixed itself, at least here on the lake it did. So I'd gone around and used my custom home building and commercial building profits to buy lake lots that were fast appreciating. But my dumbass self had to screw it up by leveraging up with houses on these lots. Worked great for a few years then kaboom for 3 years. Lucky to escape that one. And my friend, who had no clue how little money I had, persuaded me to go into the insurance business with him. A life changing event. Very challenging time for so many back then. That was probably the worst housing market in Canada...for the next 7-8 years. Even though Vancouver house prices exploded in the 90's and thereafter, that period was devastating for many here. And it wasn't as if my Dad lost the properties all at once...you sell one at a 30-40% discount and you just don't have enough out of the deal to cover the payments and mortgages on the rest...so the next year you lose another...then the next year another. And you know how it all started? My Dad did a private loan financing a fourplex he owned with a buyer...when interest rates rose and the lady couldn't afford the property, he foreclosed. But by the time he regained possession and sold it, the value had fallen 30-40% based on what market prices were. He had already bought another property after the sale to the lady, so he was on the hook for that property and mortgage as well. Each one fell under water as he sold and so at the end of everything after 10 years, we were left only with our home with a mortgage on it now. Just that one decision to do a private loan to a buyer...who could have imagined 18% interest rates...took everything down because of the overall leverage. Cheers!
dealraker Posted March 30 Posted March 30 26 minutes ago, Parsad said: Very challenging time for so many back then. That was probably the worst housing market in Canada...for the next 7-8 years. Even though Vancouver house prices exploded in the 90's and thereafter, that period was devastating for many here. And it wasn't as if my Dad lost the properties all at once...you sell one at a 30-40% discount and you just don't have enough out of the deal to cover the payments and mortgages on the rest...so the next year you lose another...then the next year another. And you know how it all started? My Dad did a private loan financing a fourplex he owned with a buyer...when interest rates rose and the lady couldn't afford the property, he foreclosed. But by the time he regained possession and sold it, the value had fallen 30-40% based on what market prices were. He had already bought another property after the sale to the lady, so he was on the hook for that property and mortgage as well. Each one fell under water as he sold and so at the end of everything after 10 years, we were left only with our home with a mortgage on it now. Just that one decision to do a private loan to a buyer...who could have imagined 18% interest rates...took everything down because of the overall leverage. Cheers! That progression I understand well. I was lucky that my step-mom had married a man who had decades of building, developing, and a real estate brokerage business experience (he was also a licensed architect) who greatly assisted me out of my mess. I'd gone from having a net worth from profits of $400k (not including my trust which was years away from maturing) to about $50k from the negative effects of that leverage. Very angry at myself.
John Hjorth Posted March 30 Posted March 30 Some absolutely wild, violent and crazy stories shared here by CofB&F members in the last few days. Thank you for that to all of you providing them. I just hope at least some of the younger CofB&F members read them, and think about them, related to their own doings, now.
LC Posted March 30 Posted March 30 11 hours ago, cwericb said: By the way, has anyone heard anything about those Epstein files lately? I think they are hiding in Iran's desalination plants: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/30/trump-threatens-to-blow-up-all-desalination-plants-in-iran Every Iranian citizen suffering from dehydration must surely be enough to for Trump to atone for definitely not participating in Epstein's ring of [insert horrific crimes against women and children] .
dwy000 Posted March 31 Posted March 31 So wait, now destroying the nuclear weapons capabilities is no longer a goal? And the missle launching has gone from "destruction" yesterday to "severely diminish" today? Can't wait to hear what it is tomorrow.
Parsad Posted March 31 Posted March 31 1 hour ago, dealraker said: That progression I understand well. I was lucky that my step-mom had married a man who had decades of building, developing, and a real estate brokerage business experience (he was also a licensed architect) who greatly assisted me out of my mess. I'd gone from having a net worth from profits of $400k (not including my trust which was years away from maturing) to about $50k from the negative effects of that leverage. Very angry at myself. Back then, in the 1980's, my Dad's properties were worth north of $3M. If he had managed to hold on to them and let the rent pay off the mortgages, those same properties would be worth north of $25M today. Instead, the financial stress took a toll on his health and he died at 48 in 1991. No nice retirement...no long 50 year marriage to my Mom...no soccer games watching my brother...no beers with him for me and brother...never saw my brother get married...never got to play with his grandchildren. Cheers!
Parsad Posted March 31 Posted March 31 1 hour ago, John Hjorth said: Some absolutely wild, violent and crazy stories shared here by CofB&F members in the last few days. Thank you for that to all of you providing them. I just hope at least some of the younger CofB&F members read them, and think about them, related to their own doings, now. You know John, I'm sure almost everyone has some sort of life-shaping experience. But for the most part, we all keep it to ourselves and rarely share with others in our real lives. Maybe the forum makes it easier to share a bit. My father's experiences shaped my decisions...I probably would be spending and taking different risks like most people if I didn't see what he went through or stumbled upon Buffett. That's how this site evolved into what it is...from a place for Berkshire and Fairfax shareholders to just hang out, to their own little community where we try and learn from each other. Sure, we fight over politics and many of us aren't entirely tactful when we post stuff. But also maybe it's why some of us are pushing Blake so hard...we want success for him...from what we've seen and learned from personal experience! Cheers!
ourkid8 Posted March 31 Posted March 31 28 minutes ago, dwy000 said: So wait, now destroying the nuclear weapons capabilities is no longer a goal? And the missle launching has gone from "destruction" yesterday to "severely diminish" today? Can't wait to hear what it is tomorrow. At the rate these objectives are changing, it will come down to who can extract the greatest Ghormeh Sabzi from the country. (the countries most popular dish… lol) Iran has been executing against their plan to perfection with minimal deviations. US/Israel have no fucking idea what they are doing. - pretty pathetic tbh.
Viking Posted March 31 Posted March 31 Rory is a great follow to get real-time information/perspective on what is going on in the Persian Gulf and energy markets.
cwericb Posted March 31 Posted March 31 1 hour ago, LC said: I think they are hiding in Iran's desalination plants: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/30/trump-threatens-to-blow-up-all-desalination-plants-in-iran Every Iranian citizen suffering from dehydration must surely be enough to for Trump to atone for definitely not participating in Epstein's ring of [insert horrific crimes against women and children] . ...... and then Iran retaliates by destroying many of it's neighbour's desalination plants...... .......and how many children have already been killed by Trump's war?
Viking Posted March 31 Posted March 31 (edited) 58 minutes ago, dwy000 said: So wait, now destroying the nuclear weapons capabilities is no longer a goal? And the missle launching has gone from "destruction" yesterday to "severely diminish" today? Can't wait to hear what it is tomorrow. I think we have one potential solution of how the current impasse might be resolved: perhaps the US/Israeli's simply exit the conflict. As per Rubio's list... clearly the US has achieved all their objectives. Job well done. Why would they stay if they have checked all of their boxes? It takes two to tango - and if one party leaves...? That would leave it to Gulf countries, Iran and the rest of the world (primarily Asian countries) to come to some sort of compromise. Difficult. But probably more likely than the current set up. This also would allow the US/Israel to come back any time they wanted and continue to bomb the shit out of Iran (you make up the reason why). Strategically, is it in the best interests of the US to have a fractured middle east? Trump might think it is. Diabolical. Who gives a shit if a match has just been dropped on a gasoline region like the middle east. After all, the US doesn't need the oil anymore... Edited March 31 by Viking
cwericb Posted March 31 Posted March 31 1 hour ago, Viking said: I think we have one potential solution of how the current impasse might be resolved: perhaps the US/Israeli's simply exit the conflict. As per Rubio's list... clearly the US has achieved all their objectives. Job well done. Why would they stay if they have checked all of their boxes? It takes two to tango - and if one party leaves...? That would leave it to Gulf countries, Iran and the rest of the world (primarily Asian countries) to come to some sort of compromise. Difficult. But probably more likely than the current set up. This also would allow the US/Israel to come back any time they wanted and continue to bomb the shit out of Iran (you make up the reason why). Strategically, is it in the best interests of the US to have a fractured middle east? Trump might think it is. Diabolical. Who gives a shit if a match has just been dropped on a gasoline region like the middle east. After all, the US doesn't need the oil anymore... Well, come on, Trump and the US still had a few countries he hadn't pissed off yet - and then he thought of the Gulf...
ourkid8 Posted March 31 Posted March 31 19 hours ago, Parsad said: It's nothing like the GFC and Lehman! I remember every detail about that period. Like now, I was up before markets opened and on till markets closed looking for opportunity. But back then, I don't think I missed a single day watching what was going on...it was nuts! The biggest difference was the amount of direct leverage being used by institutions, in particular mortgage companies and brokers/investment banks, and especially indirect leverage through derivatives. Even the banking system was far more leveraged and had much higher exposure to Level 3 assets compared to today with very little in capital buffers. Liquidity was a massive problem in the system, and as institutions failed, they were about to take down one another. The one area this time that may be exposed is the private lending/private credit market. It's been extremely lax in oversight. You will see failures at different companies and industries if the war continues and oil prices stay high, but nothing like what we saw during the GFC. This will be more similar to a smaller version of the pandemic...some regions of the world getting hit hard, companies finding ways to become more efficient and survive, some businesses having to slow or shut down, input prices increasing at each level...producer, refiner, manufacturer, wholesaler, distributor, retailer...ultimately paid by the consumer. But with this crisis, these businesses will be more efficient when the war ends and oil prices stabilize/drop. You may see a mini bubble in demand...both pre-war (hoarding, specific items) and post-war (probably everything as confidence returns/oil prices drop/tariffs drop off). In fact, using the pandemic as a model, should give you a better idea of how it will play out and what industries might have massive rebounds! Cheers! I hope you are right as what I am reading/watching it’s not looking good and this is just the start! - quick summary of countries suffering and everyday this gets worse: - south wales Australia declaring an emergency with energy lockdowns - Philippines declared a national emergency due to fuel shortages as they do not have enough diesel - Tailand halted half its shipping fleet - Taiwan is running out of gas that powers its grid - Japan is in dire situation - reduction in fertilizer means lower crop yields - people will die from starvation. Thats why I said, this is looking to be a Lehman situation slowly unraveling right in front of our eyes.
Parsad Posted March 31 Posted March 31 54 minutes ago, ourkid8 said: I hope you are right as what I am reading/watching it’s not looking good and this is just the start! - quick summary of countries suffering and everyday this gets worse: - south wales Australia declaring an emergency with energy lockdowns - Philippines declared a national emergency due to fuel shortages as they do not have enough diesel - Tailand halted half its shipping fleet - Taiwan is running out of gas that powers its grid - Japan is in dire situation - reduction in fertilizer means lower crop yields - people will die from starvation. Thats why I said, this is looking to be a Lehman situation slowly unraveling right in front of our eyes. Said there would be regional problems, but North America isn't going to go through a Lehman moment like the GFC. Also, no one is going to starve...you may have shortages in other parts of the world, but people will get through it. There may be shortages in specific crops, but people will find alternatives. When you have to face a crisis, you face a crisis and deal with it...look at the pandemic. Eventually, oil, fertilizer and other essentials will flow, and things will take some time to normalize again. This is a crisis, just not a Lehman moment. Cheers!
Parsad Posted March 31 Posted March 31 4 hours ago, Viking said: I think we have one potential solution of how the current impasse might be resolved: perhaps the US/Israeli's simply exit the conflict. As per Rubio's list... clearly the US has achieved all their objectives. Job well done. Why would they stay if they have checked all of their boxes? It takes two to tango - and if one party leaves...? That would leave it to Gulf countries, Iran and the rest of the world (primarily Asian countries) to come to some sort of compromise. Difficult. But probably more likely than the current set up. This also would allow the US/Israel to come back any time they wanted and continue to bomb the shit out of Iran (you make up the reason why). Strategically, is it in the best interests of the US to have a fractured middle east? Trump might think it is. Diabolical. Who gives a shit if a match has just been dropped on a gasoline region like the middle east. After all, the US doesn't need the oil anymore... Think about this: If you are the villain in Iran's life right now...and you have taken your toll on them...and then you simply leave. That is a relief to Iran. Now Iran will negotiate with the U.S. inter-alia Iran's neighbors, who have the greatest vested interest here other than Iran. If you are Iran, would you rather deal with Trump or them? You know this will be ANOTHER assignment for Rubio as Trump moves on to Cuba. He's already well into discussions and will probably lead to some arrangement where the Strait opens, Iran starts to move oil, Iran's neighbors facilitate and probably fund any reparations/rebuilding, and Israel gets 5-10 years of peace. Trump gets oil flowing again, markets stabilize, another "win" for Trump's ego, no chance of missiles hitting Europe, China/Russia/North Korea uninvolved but oil/energy start to normalize, etc. We are still going to see inflationary pressure on goods and businesses over the next 12 months, and likely a minor recession, but that's a hell of a lot better than what could have happened if this thing went on too long. TACO TACO! Cheers!
Hektor Posted March 31 Posted March 31 11 hours ago, Viking said: Rory is a great follow to get real-time information/perspective on what is going on in the Persian Gulf and energy markets. Is Johnston @dealraker's alter ego? He sounds like one
John Hjorth Posted March 31 Posted March 31 10 minutes ago, ourkid8 said: What does everyone think? @ourkid8, Naturally not OK, at all. - - - o 0 o - - - Thank you for contributing to creating some balance in this topic.
dealraker Posted March 31 Posted March 31 38 minutes ago, Hektor said: Is Johnston @dealraker's alter ego? He sounds like one Trump owns you, he takes you where he wants. You think you (and me) are stuck in/on Iran? LMFAO, just watch. You, me, the media...we are parasites hanging on to Trump. He takes you where he wants; you talk about his choice of topics; you ignore what he doesn't want discussed. Trump changes trains as fast as a skilled Londoner on the way to work. You don't have a clue where he's taking you.
Marco Van Basten Posted March 31 Posted March 31 2 hours ago, John Hjorth said: @ourkid8, Naturally not OK, at all. - - - o 0 o - - - Thank you for contributing to creating some balance in this topic. Actually, the article is a bald faced lie. If you bother to read the bill rather than the propaganda that FT & ourkid8 are putting out, you will see that there is nothing in the bill that prevents Jews who commit terrorist acts from being subject to the death penalty. As an aside, what is wrong with hanging murderers?
changegonnacome Posted March 31 Posted March 31 (edited) 19 hours ago, Viking said: What is the pain to Iran to string this along for another month or more? Modest. They are able to sell their oil, and now that sanctions have come off, they are able to capture top $. The regime in Iran fears peace, not war. Yeah I've been thinking about the SOH....when you get down to it, its Iran's last deterrent of significance once the bombing campaign concludes. Trump is right Iran has been substantially defanged with the exception of the SOH deterrent. If your Iran you need to preserve this 'asset' like your regime depends on it (cause it does). They are spending it down right now as means to put pressure on the US/GCC/Globe to end the bombing campaign but they need to be mindful not to spend the asset away to zero. The time decay on the SOH call option is steep. Every day the Strait remains closed Iran is driving a coalition of countries (EU, GCC, Asia) to consider genuinely throwing in with Trump to get it re-opened and once that trigger point is reached any semblance of control of the Straits is permanently removed from Iran.....if your Iran you sign a piece of paper with Trump - he'll be gone in three years, hamstrung by Congress in less than one. Make concessions on nuclear and ballistic missiles (the headline items that gives Trump his headline win) but in the area of their coastal capability you more or less leave that unaddressed in the agreement. The SOH threat lives in the ambiguity - everyone knows Iran could do this again, but nobody has to say it out loud. Iran has been militarily de-fanged of its headline offensive capabilities and left with a thin deterrent. This works for Trump too.....escalation from here (energy,water targets) risks destroying the whole Gulf (the cost is too high, Iran in this regards has achieved escalation dominance) AND boots on the ground well it's unbelievably unpopular domestically and frankly when you do the math there isn't enough troops & equipment in the region, on the way to the region nor bases left in the region to house incremental troops/equipment. Indeed if you decided to do something ambitious on the ground in Iran it would take perhaps six months to get everything you needed there.....and whats in about six months....the midterms! Looks to me like your looking at an emerging stalemate.....Trump is out of options to escalate meaningfully IMO and Iran must know that continuing to double down on the SOH chokepoint risks the formation of a coalition of the willing to take it away from them on a permanent basis losing their last durable deterrent against future attacks and turning 'their' chokepoint into somebody else's. Edited March 31 by changegonnacome
cubsfan Posted March 31 Posted March 31 Every day that Iran does not make a deal, is another day that Israel & the US get to destroy military, nuclear and manufacturing assets. Not a sign of Iranian strength.
Marco Van Basten Posted March 31 Posted March 31 36 minutes ago, changegonnacome said: Yeah I've been thinking about the SOH....when you get down to it, its Iran's last deterrent of significance once the bombing campaign concludes. Trump is right Iran has been substantially defanged with the exception of the SOH deterrent. If your Iran you need to preserve this 'asset' like your regime depends on it (cause it does). They are spending it down right now as means to put pressure on the US/GCC/Globe to end the bombing campaign but they need to be mindful not to spend the asset away to zero. The time decay on the SOH call option is steep. Every day the Strait remains closed Iran is driving a coalition of countries (EU, GCC, Asia) to consider genuinely throwing in with Trump to get it re-opened and once that trigger point is reached any semblance of control of the Straits is permanently removed from Iran.....if your Iran you sign a piece of paper with Trump - he'll be gone in three years, hamstrung by Congress in less than one. Make concessions on nuclear and ballistic missiles (the headline items that gives Trump his headline win) but in the area of their coastal capability you more or less leave that unaddressed in the agreement. The SOH threat lives in the ambiguity - everyone knows Iran could do this again, but nobody has to say it out loud. Iran has been militarily de-fanged of its headline offensive capabilities and left with a thin deterrent. This works for Trump too.....escalation from here (energy,water targets) risks destroying the whole Gulf (the cost is too high, Iran in this regards has achieved escalation dominance) AND boots on the ground well it's unbelievably unpopular domestically and frankly when you do the math there isn't enough troops & equipment in the region, on the way to the region nor bases left in the region to house incremental troops/equipment. Indeed if you decided to do something ambitious on the ground in Iran it would take perhaps six months to get everything you needed there.....and whats in about six months....the midterms! Looks to me like your looking at an emerging stalemate.....Trump is out of options to escalate meaningfully IMO and Iran must know that continuing to double down on the SOH chokepoint risks the formation of a coalition of the willing to take it away from them on a permanent basis losing their last durable deterrent against future attacks and turning 'their' chokepoint into somebody else's. Actually, trump has an option to escalate meaningfully. It is to stop Iranian crude from leaving Hormuz the same way that Iran is stopping everyone else.
cubsfan Posted March 31 Posted March 31 9 minutes ago, Marco Van Basten said: Actually, trump has an option to escalate meaningfully. It is to stop Iranian crude from leaving Hormuz the same way that Iran is stopping everyone else. So obvious, but not if you are attached to the MSM.
changegonnacome Posted March 31 Posted March 31 (edited) 1 hour ago, cubsfan said: Every day that Iran does not make a deal, is another day that Israel & the US get to destroy military, nuclear and manufacturing assets. Not a sign of Iranian strength. Sure but eventually you run out of those targets. The ability to escalate from here is limited for the US IMO.....limited by military math (troops, bases & equipment), limited by the domestic politics in the US and limited by escalation dominance. Trump starts hitting energy and water assets in Iran the whole M.E. is toast and so too the global economy it would be dumb for Trump to go up the escalation ladder from here....but as I've said Iran would also be foolish to keep pressing the SOH chokepoint much longer too.... indeed their ending of the blockade of the SOH should be somewhat coordinated with the exhaustion of US/Israeli targets inside Iran....Iran can claim domestically that SOH pressure plus regionalization of the conflict has brought an end to the attacks and the regime has prevailed ( when in reality the US/Israel just ran out of high value targets!). The most important thing for Iran now is that they don't create the conditions under which a coalition of the willing forms to make the SOH a piece of global economic infrastructure (policed, protected, patrolled etc etc.). They can't keep the SOH closed indefinitely as they risk losing their only plausible deterrent. Maybe Iran concedes on nuclear in a deal but preserves coastal ambiguity. I'm not even sure you even need a 'deal' here as @Parsad said....maybe the best deal for all concerned is no deal. Edited March 31 by changegonnacome
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