Political Posts

[Gregmal]

30 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

This is inaccurate! 

 

He doesn't explain how the monthly numbers are a sampling of employer's records and the revised numbers are after examining State tax records months later to confirm if the sampling was accurate or not.  She revised Biden's numbers down over 800,000 employees in early 2024 as well.  It's just how the BLS works.  

 

Now if you don't like how the BLS works...fine.  But to say the revised numbers are fraud is fraudulent itself!  Cheers!

It’s just another classic waste product of the government, overrun by inefficiencies and errors that would never fly in the private sector…enabled by sympathizers whom are OK pissing away tax payer funds on “its the best we have” junk. 
 

If the best we have is pretty useless…get rid of it. I’ve never once placed any weight whatsoever on the BLS data. Like I honestly don’t think there’s been even one instance where it came into play with respect to my investment process or decision making. 

[dwy000]

20 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

It’s just another classic waste product of the government, overrun by inefficiencies and errors that would never fly in the private sector…enabled by sympathizers whom are OK pissing away tax payer funds on “its the best we have” junk. 
 

If the best we have is pretty useless…get rid of it. I’ve never once placed any weight whatsoever on the BLS data. Like I honestly don’t think there’s been even one instance where it came into play with respect to my investment process or decision making. 

This is based on what?  Accurate data is now considered a "waste product of the government"?

 

Can you give any insight into what makes it either inaccurate, inefficient or wasteful?  Its a department that every country in the world employs and its accuracy is vital to policymaking and interest rate management. 

 

You may not use it but its impact is felt everywhere thru interest rate changes, manufacturing, trade and other policies. 

[RichardGibbons]

1 hour ago, dwy000 said:

Its the benefit of independent thought and analysis.  Take inputs but.make your own decisions and dont fall in love with a stock or a rationale. And be willing to acknowledge when youre wrong and change your mind. 

 

FWIW, I agree that your analysis is pretty solid, both in the political domain and investing. It leads to some fascinatingly creative responses, which is also entertaining.

[changegonnacome]

2 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

This does not look like rational decision making:

Trump playing the victim again….BLS data is a hoax designed to get Trump, 2020 election was a hoax designed to get Trump, Epstein files are a hoax designed to get Trump, Jan 6th was a false flag operation hoax designed to get Trump.

 

When you read histories of populist con men….and see the various tricks they used to keep their supporters on-side…..you ask how the hell did they fall for it?!?…I’ve some sympathy though…the populist frog supporter gets boiled slowly in a soup of lies….by the time their leader is done with them they are in a hall of mirrors and distrust of all institutions & data….except the man at the centre…the playbook, if it weren’t so old and oft repeated, would be interesting and the falling for it for forgivable….that its such a tired old trick makes it kinda unforgivable. 

[73 Reds]

25 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

Trump playing the victim again….BLS data is a hoax designed to get Trump, 2020 election was a hoax designed to get Trump, Epstein files are a hoax designed to get Trump, Jan 6th was a false flag operation hoax designed to get Trump.

 

When you read histories of populist con men….and see the various tricks they used to keep their supporters on-side…..you ask how the hell did they fall for it?!?…I’ve some sympathy though…the populist frog supporter gets boiled slowly in a soup of lies….by the time their leader is done with them they are in a hall of mirrors and distrust of all institutions & data….except the man at the centre…the playbook, if it weren’t so old and oft repeated, would be interesting and the falling for it for forgivable….that its such a tired old trick makes it kinda unforgivable. 

The Democrats did everything they could to bury Trump - personally, politically and legally.  They failed miserably.  When they look in the mirror they can thank themselves for electing the man to a second term and wonder why everyone around them is entertained by their obsessions.  

[cubsfan]

54 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

The Democrats did everything they could to bury Trump - personally, politically and legally.  They failed miserably.  When they look in the mirror they can thank themselves for electing the man to a second term and wonder why everyone around them is entertained by their obsessions.  

 

As the Democrats continue to watch their party melt away, they can thank Trump for making them look so foolish. Trump understands those 80/20 issues so well, and the Democrats are force to confront their awful choices, which prevents them from getting on the side of the public - lest they piss off the loon wing of the party.  

 

Borders, men in women's sports, inflation, school insanity, etc - all being reversed by Trump while the public cheers the results - meanwhile dems double down on foolishness.

 

The gift that keeps on giving.

[changegonnacome]

1 hour ago, 73 Reds said:

The Democrats did everything they could to bury Trump

Or maybe Trump is such a deeply flawed human being, political candidate and political leader with a business and personal life filled with historical transgressions of laws, marital fidelity and norms….you need to ask yourself…in the realm of opposition research and then political attacks if Trump we’re a Democratic Presidential candidate…what would the GOP have done?….exactly what the GOP did to the last similarly flawed political leader Bill Clinton with dodgy business dealings and marital flings.

 

Trump got buried by the Democrats, not because of the Democrats, but because he lived a life that deserved to be buried by whatever political party he was in opposition against….indeed in another universe as you know….Trump could have been the Democratic candidate but he cleverly spotted that the populist antiestablishment outsider position on the left was fully occupied by Bernie so he hijacked the Republican Party instead cause it was hijackable….one can imagine a world where Trump ( the political opportunist he is with no real political believes, outside tariffs)….on the stump espousing the virtues of windmills and pro-choice just as easily as he does the opposite now.  I think you know that to be true deep down.

[SharperDingaan]

The reality of course is that the political lying is on both sides, and both parties are about as corrupt as each other  Oligarchs, that continue to exist ... only so long as the old men on both sides continue to play the game, the same way.

 

Thing is, that for those ambitious (and not too particular) upstarts in both parties; successfully play the game very differently, and you could well be the next president  As in all conflicts it is the younger generations (job/status loss, economic stagnation, domestic violence), and the retired (inflation), that pay the price; and the wealthy with the most to lose  ... Lots of 'power bases' up for grabs!

 

The ice-cube is rapidly melting, numbers are getting 'altered', excuses are going up .... tariff disruptions are now starting to appear, most would expect that Q32025 reporting will be in the toilet for near everyone, the ME/Ukraine wars are still ongoing, US reserve currency status remains a growing challenge. Maybe the Fort Knox gold is there, maybe it isn't (not audited since 1953). Maybe Orange Boy pulls out a rabbit, or maybe he just continues to blame everyone else but himself - just can't get quality help! 

 

As soon as the successful first mover steps up, the opposing second mover will be obliged to rapidly follow. Lose the mid-term, the new mob-bosses step up, the streets start to flow, and Caesar goes down to the knives. 

 

All the spin in the world, ain't gonna help him.

 

SD    

 

Edited August 2, 2025 by SharperDingaan

[73 Reds]

37 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

Or maybe Trump is such a deeply flawed human being, political candidate and political leader with a business and personal life filled with historical transgressions of laws, marital fidelity and norms….you need to ask yourself…in the realm of opposition research and then political attacks if Trump we’re a Democratic Presidential candidate…what would the GOP have done?….exactly what the GOP did to the last similarly flawed political leader Bill Clinton with dodgy business dealings and marital flings.

 

Trump got buried by the Democrats, not because of the Democrats, but because he lived a life that deserved to be buried by whatever political party he was in opposition against….indeed in another universe as you know….Trump could have been the Democratic candidate but he cleverly spotted that the populist antiestablishment outsider position on the left was fully occupied by Bernie so he hijacked the Republican Party instead cause it was hijackable….one can imagine a world where Trump ( the political opportunist he is with no real political believes, outside tariffs)….on the stump espousing the virtues of windmills and pro-choice just as easily as he does the opposite now.  I think you know that to be true deep down.

Actually, I think he's playing you and everyone else with tariffs.  And like it or not, he's getting the last laugh - no matter what happens from here on out.

[changegonnacome]

8 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

he's getting the last laugh - no matter what happens from here on out.

Really….he left his first term in a chaotic poop and piss filled Capital disgrace pushing an election fraud…….only democratic incompetence allowed him back in…..and for his encore he’s in the process IMO of dismantling a good economy while pissing off every ally America has diminishing it in the world stage…..I won’t put a grade on his second term (onbviously too early)….but the last laugh I suspect will be history judging him the worst Prez in US history for that he needs to wreck the US economy…he seems off to a good start and 3.5yrs to go.

[dwy000]

19 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

Actually, I think he's playing you and everyone else with tariffs.  And like it or not, he's getting the last laugh - no matter what happens from here on out.

What does this mean that he is "playing you and everyone else with tariffs"?

 

Playing how?  Nobody, not people in the administration, the TV talking heads or anyone on this board can explain what the actual goal is with tariffs.  So, not only is the goal unclear but the implementation has been horrendous, disjointed and downright harmful.  

 

If Trump is playing people, he is intentionally harming the economy and the US's international reputation with no apparent end game, for what?  Enjoyment?  To "own the libs"?

 

That's not leadership.  Its chaos.  People deserve an explanation and competence.  They're not getting either. 

[Spekulatius]

The Republican party is owned just like the Democrats. Doesn’t make a difference if you like it or not - everyone is in the same boat.

 

Here is to Allegiance to Trump:

 

Edited August 2, 2025 by Spekulatius

[dwy000]

1 minute ago, Spekulatius said:

The Republican party is owned just like the Democrats. Doesn’t make a difference if you like it or not

 

Here is to Allegiance to Trump:

 

Cult. 

[Gregmal]

3 hours ago, dwy000 said:

What does this mean that he is "playing you and everyone else with tariffs"?

 

Playing how?  Nobody, not people in the administration, the TV talking heads or anyone on this board can explain what the actual goal is with tariffs.  So, not only is the goal unclear but the implementation has been horrendous, disjointed and downright harmful.  

 

If Trump is playing people, he is intentionally harming the economy and the US's international reputation with no apparent end game, for what?  Enjoyment?  To "own the libs"?

 

That's not leadership.  Its chaos.  People deserve an explanation and competence.  They're not getting either. 

LOL all of these things have been explained to you many times. Just like how on liberation day you were told very clearly, “this is a negotiation and just the opening act, no need to panic”…and you and others kept crying about not understanding things and how we were headed for the end of the world, and how panicking first pays off, and how Trump was lying because he didn’t tell everyone in the world exactly what he was doing, step by step. 
 

This is one of many reasons there’s no point discussing anything Trump related with many of you. 

Edited August 3, 2025 by Gregmal

[dwy000]

19 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

LOL all of these things have been explained to you many times. Just like how on liberation day you were told very clearly, “this is a negotiation and just the opening act, no need to panic”…and you and others kept crying about not understanding things and how we were headed for the end of the world, and how panicking first pays off, and how Trump was lying because he didn’t tell everyone in the world exactly what he was doing, step by step. 
 

This is one of many reasons there’s no point discussing anything Trump related with many of you. 

Thats a process answer on the negotiation (if thats what it is), not a rationale for implementing tariffs in the first place.  

 

We have a trade surplus with the UK, why are we putting a 15% tax on goods we import from them?  Why is Brazil (who we also have a trade surplus with) tariffednat 50% (because Trump doesnt like them prosecuting Bolisano).  Why is Switzerland at 39%?  Why are cars from Japan tariffed at 15% but steel imported to build them in the US tariffed at 50%. 

 

Because there's no expressed reason for tariffs in the first place, (that makes any sense whatsoever) nobody can explain how theyre determined, what the purpose is and how this is supposed to achieve it.

 

Its hurting consumers thru the "tax" it imposes and it hurts business who cant plan around it. And it hurts long term US trade relationships as partners seek to establish international relationships around us.  

Edited August 3, 2025 by dwy000

[changegonnacome]

Great thing about this Presidency….is how radical and consequential his actions have been so early on…..on the economy, on Iran, on Ukraine.

 

He’s going to be around long enough and the outcome so directly a result of Trump’s actions….that we will see how dumb or how smart his approach was on all these three portfolios in a relatively short period of time…..I personally believe he has made a grave error on all three…..but hope he hasn’t at the same time……and acknowledge for each their remains an open question as to the outcome and obviously too early to tell and we all have our opinions.

 

But I’ll posit this on the negative side what a failed Trump presidency looks like- 

 

US growth is going to lag both the Biden and first Trump presidency

 

the annual deficit & debt to gdp ratio will expand even more as a result

 

Ukraine will collapse under Trump’s watch  and Trump will have a Biden Afghanistan moment as Russia hands Trump and the United States an embarrassing loss in what is fundamentally a proxy war between the US and Russia

 

& not doing a JCPOA v2 will come back haunt the administration as Iran/Israel pull the US deeper into the region with ever more difficult and consequential decisions to be made…..Trump but the US admin will profoundly regret not taking a JCPOA exit when they could

[changegonnacome]

27 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

Because there's no expressed reaso

The reason is because he feel in love with the idea of tariffs in the 1980’s while running around New York and Palm Beach with Jeffrey Epstein……the rationale, the expressed strategy, the desired outcome changes day to day, minute to minute…..the answer you seek is because you think that perhaps Trump has some kind of executive faculty (he doesn’t)….he runs on vibes…..and his vibe is tariffs will make America great again….he is smart enough to plant a number of metrics by which he can measure the success…the most sure of course is revenue raised by treasury…..the tell that this whole enterprise isn’t working on the other metrics bandied about (trade deficits, inflation, manufacturing employment/output, gdp growth)…is the focus on raw $$$ collections.

[Sweet]

20 hours ago, 73 Reds said:

The problem here is everyone jumps to their own conclusions without a grasp of all the facts.  Like every other story resulting in Trump-hate, the real facts will eventually come out.  But in general, as for anyone Trump has the ability to hire and fire, it is within his purview to fire someone, particularly an official left over from a prior Administration which accomplished next to nothing.  

Yes.  There will be a procedure for reporting job numbers.  If that procedure was followed, and that procedure is fair, and transparent, then there is no reason for the head to be sacked.  Trump just looks like a demagogue who wants nothing but good news if she has been fired for no good reason.  If Trump can show process was deviated from in the cusp of election, sure fire her.

[John Hjorth]

37 minutes ago, Sweet said:

Yes.  There will be a procedure for reporting job numbers.  If that procedure was followed, and that procedure is fair, and transparent, then there is no reason for the head to be sacked.  Trump just looks like a demagogue who wants nothing but good news if she has been fired for no good reason.  If Trump can show process was deviated from in the cusp of election, sure fire her.

 

Exactly, and as also explained by @dwy000 and Sanjeev [ @Parsad ] above. Allegations made public of a public servant politically appointed of falsification state provided statistics is a serious matter, that noone, not even POTUS, should be allowed to just throw around, without providing the basis for the allegations.

 

But that's just not POTUS' opus moderandi, and he obviously gives a damn about it.

Edited August 3, 2025 by John Hjorth

[73 Reds]

9 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

Great thing about this Presidency….is how radical and consequential his actions have been so early on…..on the economy, on Iran, on Ukraine.

 

He’s going to be around long enough and the outcome so directly a result of Trump’s actions….that we will see how dumb or how smart his approach was on all these three portfolios in a relatively short period of time…..I personally believe he has made a grave error on all three…..but hope he hasn’t at the same time……and acknowledge for each their remains an open question as to the outcome and obviously too early to tell and we all have our opinions.

 

But I’ll posit this on the negative side what a failed Trump presidency looks like- 

 

US growth is going to lag both the Biden and first Trump presidency

 

the annual deficit & debt to gdp ratio will expand even more as a result

 

Ukraine will collapse under Trump’s watch  and Trump will have a Biden Afghanistan moment as Russia hands Trump and the United States an embarrassing loss in what is fundamentally a proxy war between the US and Russia

 

& not doing a JCPOA v2 will come back haunt the administration as Iran/Israel pull the US deeper into the region with ever more difficult and consequential decisions to be made…..Trump but the US admin will profoundly regret not taking a JCPOA exit when they could

Why do you always talk out of both sides of your mouth?  No one here is judging Trump's presidency before it is over.  Good luck with your predictions - that's all they are.  Yet it is beyond dispute that he single handedly dismantled the Democratic Party, he succeeded in finally discrediting a corrupt main stream media, he has destroyed woke culture in the US,  he totally dominates the World narrative (no, every US President didn't have this ability), he nearly always gets what he wants when it comes to policy regardless of what you or anyone else may think and with only a marginal majority in congress, and the best part - he drives people like you batshit crazy.  There are folks on this board who believe Trump is stupid.  Stupid people don't have these abilities.  But people lacking common sense let their ideologies and personal hatred control their lives.   

[changegonnacome]

10 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

single handedly dismantled the Democratic Party

On about every metric you can think of….he, the GOP won the congress, the senate & WH by historically narrow margins….if that’s your definition of a “dismantled” or “obliterated” Democratic Party the facts don’t agree with you….if so when the Democrats win the House by a wider margin in the Midterms…I look forward to talking about  the GOP being dismantled then!

[John Hjorth]

43 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

... he totally dominates the World narrative (no, every US President didn't have this ability), ...

 

@73 Reds,

 

Home bias. What do you know about that? In corporate Europe he is just dubbed 'The man with the red tie'. I have heard this term on AGMs and quarterly calls and its not meant as a compliment, more as an expression of a nuisance in the corner offices on floors that matter in running business.

 

I think it's fair to say the perception of POTUS and his doings here in Europe is totally different than in USA, and he does not occupy the total narrative.

[dealraker]

1 hour ago, 73 Reds said:

Why do you always talk out of both sides of your mouth?  No one here is judging Trump's presidency before it is over.  Good luck with your predictions - that's all they are.  Yet it is beyond dispute that he single handedly dismantled the Democratic Party, he succeeded in finally discrediting a corrupt main stream media, he has destroyed woke culture in the US,  he totally dominates the World narrative (no, every US President didn't have this ability), he nearly always gets what he wants when it comes to policy regardless of what you or anyone else may think and with only a marginal majority in congress, and the best part - he drives people like you batshit crazy.  There are folks on this board who believe Trump is stupid.  Stupid people don't have these abilities.  But people lacking common sense let their ideologies and personal hatred control their lives.   

Reds I look foward to your logical side returning, you've got a fun-to-interact-with demeanor that's buried beneath that damn Trump fantasy.

[dwy000]

8 minutes ago, dealraker said:

Reds I look foward to your logical side returning, you've got a fun-to-interact-with demeanor that's buried beneath that damn Trump fantasy.

+1

 

You had some great analysis on the stock side and some very reasoned analysis on the policy side (which, while I didnt always agree with it, it was based on independent thought).  But lately that's been set aside to go down the rabbit hole and is sounding more cultish than reasoned. 

[cubsfan]

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

 

@73 Reds,

 

Home bias. What do you know about that? In corporate Europe he is just dubbed 'The man with the red tie'. I have heard this term on AGMs and quarterly calls and its not meant as a compliment, more as an expression of a nuisance in the corner offices on floors that matter in running business.

 

I think it's fair to say the perception of POTUS and his doings here in Europe is totally different than in USA, and he does not occupy the total narrative.

 

Of course Trump is a "nuisance" for the Europeans.  He totally exposed them as the NATO freeloaders they are - although they have been humiliated, they now are moving to a serious and unified NATO.

 

And between JD Vance and Trump exposing the cultural destruction of Europe via uncontrolled immigration,  the citizens of Europe are starting to see how they have been led astray by their bozo leaders. They are starting to understand they may be able to save their countries if they will actually make tough decisions.

 

Europe will always despise Trump since their leaders have failed much of the continent.