Political Posts

[changegonnacome]

Trump really is the boy who cried wolf......a victim of the deep state, a victim of New York state, a victim of Comey, a victim of election fraud, a victim of Obama, a victim of the Clinton campaign, a victim of Joe Biden and the democrats and now top it all off for the 'win' a victim of US statistical agencies.....what a crybaby.

 

 

Edited August 2, 2025 by changegonnacome

[Red Lion]

6 hours ago, dwy000 said:

And if he really wants rates to come down he should be celebrating the data because that's the exact kind of data that justifies a rate cut

This was my first thought as well. Was surprised to see the headlines evolve. 

[Spekulatius]

Lots to unpack here. China has been dominating the Physics Olympics for decades now:

https://aas.org/posts/news/2025/07/us-physics-team-wins-international-olympiad

 

2025 US Physics Team are:

• Agastya Goel
• Allen Li
• Joshua Wang
• Feodor Yevtushenko
• Brian Zhang

 

[Spekulatius]

Interesting thread about BLS revisions:

 

[Paarslaars]

That H1B visa keeping the US relevant. 

[Sweet]

12 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

Including Trump's own previous administration!  You can't justify all his bullshit and interference.  That's practicing the MAGA mindset...and ignoring the room he's creating for fraud.  Cheers!

Yeh these numbers have always been patchy and should be smoothed over a period of months.  Firing the girl because he doesn’t like the numbers is ridiculous.  He should make any evidence of wrongdoing public, otherwise you just look like a guy who can’t take the truth.

[73 Reds]

18 minutes ago, Sweet said:

Yeh these numbers have always been patchy and should be smoothed over a period of months.  Firing the girl because he doesn’t like the numbers is ridiculous.  He should make any evidence of wrongdoing public, otherwise you just look like a guy who can’t take the truth.

The problem here is everyone jumps to their own conclusions without a grasp of all the facts.  Like every other story resulting in Trump-hate, the real facts will eventually come out.  But in general, as for anyone Trump has the ability to hire and fire, it is within his purview to fire someone, particularly an official left over from a prior Administration which accomplished next to nothing.  

[cubsfan]

Fired for incompetence or lack of honesty is pretty clear. 

 

Why keep someone around who revised the employment numbers downward 900,000 jobs right after the election.

 

I'd say highly dishonest and untrustworthy.

[Spekulatius]

Both payments large processors Paychex and ADP have their own reports which tend to be less noisy but don’t capture new/ smaller business. The  ADP report from last month was already some what weak but generally ignored:

https://mediacenter.adp.com/2025-07-02-ADP-National-Employment-Report-Private-Sector-Employment-Shed-33,000-Jobs-in-June-Annual-Pay-was-Up-4-4

 

[cubsfan]

Like @Gregmal said - BLS stunningly bad at it's job. (Or dishonest)

 

Read statement on firing - with umpteen specific examples.

 

Particularly egregious--  the 800,000 downward revision 1 week after the election, whereby they knew in August 2024 - their numbers were wrong.

I can only assume she was dishonest and deserved to be fired.

 

 A preliminary annual revision to the jobs data, made in August, suggested job growth in the 12 months through March will be marked down by more than 800,000 — the largest downward revision since 2009 — making waves in financial markets and on Capitol Hill. The final data is due early next year.”

 

https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/2025/08/bls-has-lengthy-history-of-inaccuracies-incompetence/#:~:text=A preliminary annual revision to the jobs,final data is due early next year.”

 

 

 

 

Edited August 2, 2025 by cubsfan

[Spekulatius]

On 7/31/2025 at 11:49 AM, Saluki said:

I received this disturbing email in inbox: 

 

-------------------------------------

 

Dear Colleague,

You served the United States of America with distinction and honor. Now, your country calls upon you to serve once more. Due to the prior administration's disastrous immigration policies, the men and women of ICE now face unprecedented challenges. Your experience and unwavering commitment are critically needed to support our frontline Law Enforcement colleagues in helping to secure our communities and uphold our laws.

We are issuing an urgent call to former federal Attorneys to join OPERATION RETURN TO MISSION (“RTM”), where you can serve in your current location.

By returning to ICE, you are providing an honorable, indispensable service to our nation. The Trump Administration is fully committed to supporting the dedicated law enforcement, attorneys, and professionals who secure our borders, shield our communities, and protect our national security and public safety. This is a pivotal moment in our country's history, and your experience and expertise are vitally needed.

On Independence Day 2025, President Trump signed into law the One Big Beautiful Bill (“OBBB”), giving ICE the funding to once again defend the homeland and uphold the rule of law. As a result, we are significantly growing our ICE team -- starting with bringing back our retired colleagues. RTM is being offered to retired employees who departed federal service in good standing. If you qualify for RTM, you may be eligible for:

1. A signing bonus (recruitment incentive) of up to $50,000 may be paid as follows:
   1. A signing bonus of $10,000 upon returning to service;
   2. An additional $10,000 signing bonus upon returning to service if your completed application is submitted by August 6, 2025; and
   3. A $10,000 bonus paid annually on your service anniversary for up to three years.
2. A “dual compensation waiver” (salary offset waiver) which will allow you to continue to collect your new ICE salary while also retaining any existing federal benefits including pension payments.

If you are ready to RETURN TO MISSION, please submit your application at the following links.

• Attorney, GS-14 - USAJOBS - Job Announcement
• Attorney, GS-14 (FPL 15) DC Only - USAJOBS - Job Announcement

For more information and FAQs, please visit: https://www.ice.gov/return.

On behalf of a grateful nation, we proudly call upon you to RETURN TO MISSION and claim your vital role among the courageous men and women of ICE.

If you have questions regarding the announcements, please send them to [email protected].

Sincerely,
Madison D. Sheahan
Deputy Director
U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement

@Saluki If the job does not require relocation, I would take it. Whats there not to like? You get a signup bonuses and Uncle Sam provides you with free on the job training on emigration law for the next 6-12 month at least. Once you are past the period where you need to pay back the signup bonus re- evaluate if you really want to do this job or not. If not get on  medical leave  or just do the bare minimum and I think they will give you another buyout.

 

Just claim you piece of the big beautiful spending bill because someone else will do it otherwise.

[John Hjorth]

18 hours ago, dwy000 said:

... Everyone should care because the accurate reporting of data is a cornerstone to both investing and policy.  Removing accuracy for loyalty destroys trust in the entire system and is exactly what dictators do.  ...

 

Quoting @dwy000 here, but respectlully also remembering other CofB&F members posts expressing similar line of thinking :

 

Lars Christensen - The Market Monetarist [August 1^st 2025] : Trump Fires BLS Chief: The Argentinisation of American Data

[dwy000]

2 hours ago, 73 Reds said:

The problem here is everyone jumps to their own conclusions without a grasp of all the facts.  Like every other story resulting in Trump-hate, the real facts will eventually come out.  But in general, as for anyone Trump has the ability to hire and fire, it is within his purview to fire someone, particularly an official left over from a prior Administration which accomplished next to nothing.  

This is the ultimate cult response. He did something stupid and unnecessary with no proof and no evidence.  Even though it makes no sense and you cant justify it you are 110% on board.  No independent thought.  No independent rationale.  No realization of the likely consequences. No thinking or analysis.  Simply Trump did it so it must be right and I'm all for it. 

 

Thats a cult!!!

[Spekulatius]

This does not look like rational decision making:

[cubsfan]

11 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

This is the ultimate cult response. He did something stupid and unnecessary with no proof and no evidence.  Even though it makes no sense and you cant justify it you are 110% on board.  No independent thought.  No independent rationale.  No realization of the likely consequences. No thinking or analysis.  Simply Trump did it so it must be right and I'm all for it. 

 

Thats a cult!!!

 

Gotta love it - defend the indefensible.  Same as Comey, Brennan, Clapper, Myorkas, Buttigieg, Milley, Blinken, Garland and the rest of Biden's Bozos.  Nothing like a good housecleaning:

 

"A lengthy history of inaccuracies and incompetence by Erika McEntarfer, the former Biden-appointed Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, has completely eroded public trust in the government agency charged with disseminating key data used by policymakers and businesses to make consequential decisions."

 

Under McEntarfer, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) consistently published overly optimistic jobs numbers — only for those numbers to be quietly revised later.

[dwy000]

1 minute ago, cubsfan said:

 

Gotta love it - defend the indefensible.  Same as Comey, Brennan, Clapper, Myorkas, Buttigieg, Milley, Blinken, Garland and the rest of Biden's Bozos.  Nothing like a good housecleaning:

 

 

"A lengthy history of inaccuracies and incompetence by Erika McEntarfer, the former Biden-appointed Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, has completely eroded public trust in the government agency charged with disseminating key data used by policymakers and businesses to make consequential decisions."

 

Under McEntarfer, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) consistently published overly optimistic jobs numbers — only for those numbers to be quietly revised later.

That's how the process works!!!  Thats why they are "initial" numbers.  How.many posts here have shown that revisions are normal, expected and have been part of it for decades. 

 

As I say, if you defend the undefendable with no independent thought or rationale except the Dear Leader talking points, you are in a cult. 

[dealraker]

My view doesn't change based on stock prices nor economic data.  Good data and rising markets bring arrogance and put-downs while bad data and down markets bring the dominating feature of all - the grievance dance.

 

Those that love DJT, and that group does have large numbers of come-and-goers, give too much credit to his business "success" and his ability to lead and solve problems.

 

Those that despise DJT, and that group also has a bunch of come-and-go people, give too much credit to his business "success" and his ability to lead and solve problems.

 

Donald does an excellent job of random waffling, moody envious old man bat shit crazy stuff that without a doubt is the most media dominating behavior of all time.  The less logical the more some like it; the more inconsistent the more some can't get enough of it.  And DJT loves getting people to fight so he can watch and instigate.  Some people think they are gaining and thus become obsessed over the empowerment they feel while some feel belittled and destined for a terrible life.  My guess is neither gets what they think they'll get, both will get about the same outcome.

 

Nothing has changed for Donald for half a century except that the platform is now global and most importantly he has rescued himself from financial failure.  

 

The skill that DJT excels with is being able to crawl out from nobody-else-gains chaos with a nice paycheck.    

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited August 2, 2025 by dealraker

[cubsfan]

Just now, dwy000 said:

That's how the process works!!!  Thats why they are "initial" numbers.  How.many posts here have shown that revisions are normal, expected and have been part of it for decades. 

 

As I say, if you defend the undefendable with no independent thought or rationale except the Dear Leader talking points, you are in a cult. 

 

Deliberately surpressing the 800,000 job revision, when she was aware of it 2 months before the election - and they "adjusting" the numbers downward 2 weeks after the election is a stunning display of dishonesty.

 

Oh well - she gets to join the crowd of Biden's bozos.

[John Hjorth]

3 hours ago, 73 Reds said:

The problem here is everyone jumps to their own conclusions without a grasp of all the facts.  Like every other story resulting in Trump-hate, the real facts will eventually come out.  ... 

 

Then why even publicly [on Truth Social] giving this reason in the first place, if it's not for the sake of 'The story', when Dr. Erika McEncarfer was potically appointed? Likely Dr. Erika McEcarfer was on a visit at an attorney on such stuff yesterday. [I personally certainly would, if it was me getting this treatment.]

 

Supplementary post on Truth Social from POTUS, after he likely realized that he made a mistake here:

 

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114955222046259464

 

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Edit :

 

Edited August 2, 2025 by John Hjorth

[dwy000]

 

[73 Reds]

1 hour ago, dwy000 said:

This is the ultimate cult response. He did something stupid and unnecessary with no proof and no evidence.  Even though it makes no sense and you cant justify it you are 110% on board.  No independent thought.  No independent rationale.  No realization of the likely consequences. No thinking or analysis.  Simply Trump did it so it must be right and I'm all for it. 

 

Thats a cult!!!

@dwy000 just curious, what exactly to you invest in?

[dwy000]

5 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

@dwy000 just curious, what exactly to you invest in?

Not sure how that's relevant but my top 3 positions are MSFT, ORCL and JPM - all of them because they grew into it over years.  Also in BRO, Builders, BRK, Dell, Cigna and a couple of others.  Many of them introduced to me on this board. 

[73 Reds]

2 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

Not sure how that's relevant but my top 3 positions are MSFT, ORCL and JPM - all of them because they grew into it over years.  Also in BRO, Builders, BRK, Dell, Cigna and a couple of others.  Many of them introduced to me on this board. 

Well, to your credit, your investments are much more logical than your political commentary.  Stick to your strengths.

[dwy000]

1 minute ago, 73 Reds said:

Well, to your credit, your investments are much more logical than your political commentary.  Stick to your strengths.

Its the benefit of independent thought and analysis.  Take inputs but.make your own decisions and dont fall in love with a stock or a rationale. And be willing to acknowledge when youre wrong and change your mind. 

Edited August 2, 2025 by dwy000

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

This does not look like rational decision making:

 

This is inaccurate! 

 

He doesn't explain how the monthly numbers are a sampling of employer's records and the revised numbers are after examining State tax records months later to confirm if the sampling was accurate or not.  She revised Biden's numbers down over 800,000 employees in early 2024 as well.  It's just how the BLS works.  

 

Now if you don't like how the BLS works...fine.  But to say the revised numbers are fraud is fraudulent itself!  Cheers!