Political Posts

[Gregmal]

People claim they hate liars and then watch Jerry Powell get up there now for 2 years running making up future things to be concerned about. When they dont pan out, he just doubles, and triples down. Either a liar or dumb as a doorknob. My goodness. 

[John Hjorth]

2 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

People claim they hate liars and then watch Jerry Powell get up there now for 2 years running making up future things to be concerned about. When they dont pan out, he just doubles, and triples down. Either a liar or dumb as a doorknob. My goodness. 

 

I think Gregs [ @Gregmals ] sentiment about interest rates and Powellls doings perhaps may be coloured of the use of debt.

 

Just saying.

 

Life without debt and doorknobs are just great, liars not so much.

[Gregmal]

Like with other things, how many times do people get to make foolish forecasts or predictions, be wrong, and then just get right back at it? Powells been doing this now for years. This is the same guy who fails to understand that the only leg left in the CPI prints is OER....which is one of the dumbest made up metrics out there. 

 

Use of debt is irrelevant, as it's always used, a constant when investing. If it's not used profitably, it's because the investor is doing something wrong. 

[Parsad]

3 hours ago, 73 Reds said:

@Blake have to admit I agree with you but if (when?) crypto eventually goes south all it will cause is financial ruin for a relative few.

 

Depends how deep it goes in terms of financial institutions, loans to crypto firms, pension fund investments, etc.  Only when the shit hits the fan, will all be revealed.  Losses, exposure, failures...we'll find out when things turn, and I suspect with the current momentum behind crypto, it will be some time off.  Cheers!

[Parsad]

3 hours ago, gfp said:

I came here for Blake's hot take on the social security trust fund running out of money in less than a decade!  Where is my hot take??

 

 

 

gfp...don't instigate.  Cheers!

[John Hjorth]

European Council - Press Release [June 17^th 2025] : G7 Leaders’ Joint Statements - Kananaskis, Canada, 17 June 2025.

 

Quote

At the 2025 G7 Leaders’ Summit held in Kananaskis, the leaders of the G7 discussed topics ranging from international peace and security to global economic stability, growth, and emerging technologies. They adopted the following statements:

 

-And then one can start reading the individual statements in pdf format... - after reading two or three, one stops, and starts thinking : 'What is this actually?' Just large streams of words!

 

The worst is 'Chairs summary'! - So I suggest you start with that.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

It been said in the news, that it was actually not G-7 meeting, but a G-6 meeting, POTUS leaving early 'because the Israel-Iran clash required his presense in the White House', I have seen gossip about Melonis rolling eyes and statements about POTUS leaving because nobody there wanted to talk to him ..., tariffs and all that, you know ..., and after last time POTUS participated, where he went beserk, full blown cerebral hemorrhage, after seeing the draft to the closing joint statement, stating : 'I haven't accepted, nor said all that'. [<-]

 

- - - o 0 o - - - 

 

What a friggin' waste of time! 

Edited June 18, 2025 by John Hjorth

[Parsad]

16 hours ago, ourkid8 said:

Iran doesn't want a nuclear weapon, this is all zionists propaganda and lies from a criminal charged with war crimes. The world will truly be safer without this mentally sick individual. 
 

Jon Stewart having fun with Zionist propaganda. No one should trusts these clowns  
 

 

 

Ourkid8, please be careful throwing around the word Zionist in a derogatory fashion.  Cheers!

[changegonnacome]

Trump Privately Approved Attack Plans For Iran But Has Withheld Final Order

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-israel-conflict-news?mod=WSJ_home_mediumtopper_pos_1

 

Guess we're going after them old WMD's again .......2003 wants it headlines back!

[Blake Hampton]

4 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

Trump Privately Approved Attack Plans For Iran But Has Withheld Final Order

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-israel-conflict-news?mod=WSJ_home_mediumtopper_pos_1

 

Guess we're going after them old WMD's again .......2003 wants it headlines back!

“I have ideas on what to do but I haven’t made a final—I like to make the final decision one second before it’s due.”

- The Orange Stinker, Donald Trump

 

Edited June 18, 2025 by Blake Hampton

[73 Reds]

22 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

“I have ideas on what to do but I haven’t made a final—I like to make the final decision one second before it’s due.”

- The Orange Stinker, Donald Trump

 

Here's what I don't get:  Iranian leadership looks and sounds utterly retarded brandishing hollow threats at Israel and the US while their military capabilities are being systematically dismantled.  Yet they were wise enough to dupe former Pres. Obama, and later former Pres. Biden out of billions of dollars which they used to foment terrorism and restock their weaponry.   And you're making fun of Trump?  

[Gregmal]

Yup, the daily comedy routine. No matter what he does, they keep "getting Trump"...I love it. 

[Parsad]

5 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

Here's what I don't get:  Iranian leadership looks and sounds utterly retarded brandishing hollow threats at Israel and the US while their military capabilities are being systematically dismantled.  Yet they were wise enough to dupe former Pres. Obama, and later former Pres. Biden out of billions of dollars which they used to foment terrorism and restock their weaponry.   And you're making fun of Trump?  

 

Obama and Biden weren't duped...the payments were to limit Iran's advancement of their nuclear program while avoiding an all out war in the Middle East.  

 

A few months ago, you were all talking about how Trump is trying to bring peace everywhere and avoid bloodshed...what happened?

 

Now the Ukraine/Russia war has escalated, Israel is in full out war in the Middle East and the United States is going to get involved.  Wait till there is a ground assault...this will be Iraq all over again!

 

If you think he's a peace maker...let him make peace.  But the hypocrisy of the right has the same exact stench as the left.  Cheers!

 

 

[73 Reds]

Just now, Parsad said:

 

Obama and Biden weren't duped...the payments were to limit Iran's advancement of their nuclear program while avoiding an all out war in the Middle East.  

 

A few months ago, you were all talking about how Trump is trying to bring peace everywhere and avoid bloodshed...what happened?

 

Now the Ukraine/Russia war has escalated, Israel is in full out war in the Middle East and the United States is going to get involved.  Wait till there is a ground assault...this will be Iraq all over again!

 

If you think he's a peace maker...let him make peace.  But the hypocrisy of the right has the same exact stench as the left.  Cheers!

 

 

"limit Iran's advancement of their nuclear program"  Really????  All while spouting "death to Israel, death to the US".  You Canadians are far too nice and peace-loving for your own good!  

[John Hjorth]

Blake [ @Blake Hampton ],

 

You are young and most likely has one the longest runways in front of you of all of us active here on CofB&F, statistically.

 

Please don't waste your time in this politics topic here on CofB&F. What I personally would suggest you to do is to spend more time, energy and to redirect your focus and energy on ideas presented for you in the Investment Ideas forum, instead of posting pretty much useless and immaterial posts in this topic, including a lot of macro stuff. 

 

I mean : You aren't really posting here on CofB&F in your capacity of being a US citizen, more in your capacity of being an US DIY investor.

 

If you really think USA so f***ed up and doomed long term, why don't you just direct your investment focus somewhere else? - Canada, or Europe, for example? -In reality, you have nothing but opportunities in front of you, if you look around!

[ourkid8]

7 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Gheez, nobody needs 60-80% enriched Uranium unless they want to produce a weapon. This is not hard to Google  either. @changegonnacome said it already.

 

You made some valid point before, but this claim is totally off.

 

We should based everything on facts not typical Zionists propaganda.  

 

1.  As of June 18, 2025 IAEA Director general Rafael Grossi stated that the agency lacks verifiable evidence of Iran's development of a nuclear weapon

2.  US intelligence community continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme leader Khamenei has not authorized a nuclear weapons program - Tulsi Gabbard

3. Iran was at the negotiation table for a nuclear deal until Trump the snake showed his true self by not negotiating in good faith

4.  Iran signed the nuclear non-proliferation treaty - guess who did not - Israel

5.  Iran allows IAEA inspections - guess who does not - Israel

 

I can keep on going but at the end, everyone will base their decisions based on Israeli lies/propaganda.  Don't forget, Netanyahu lied about Iraq Nuclear weapons program and now continues his lies about Iran.  I am surprised anyone even listens to his BS.

 

Edited June 18, 2025 by ourkid8

[Blake Hampton]

2 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

instead of posting pretty much useless and immaterial posts in this topic, including a lot of macro stuff.

 

See the problem with investors generally is that they've been trained to think macro is immaterial, just like they've been trained into thinking that putting 100% of their money in the S&P 500, no matter the valuation, is somehow prudent.

 

Fiscal deficits will soon be approaching $2.5 trillion, possibly even closer to $3 trillion.

A $2.5 trillion deficit is $19,000 in Treasury issuance annually for every single U.S. household. You have Buffett repeatedly warning about runaway inflation, Dimon explicitly saying that we're going to see a severe bond market crisis, and this is supposed to somehow be "useless and immaterial."

 

I disagree.

 

If you don't like what I write, don't read it.

[Gregmal]

13 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

Obama and Biden weren't duped...the payments were to limit Iran's advancement of their nuclear program while avoiding an all out war in the Middle East.  

 

A few months ago, you were all talking about how Trump is trying to bring peace everywhere and avoid bloodshed...what happened?

 

Now the Ukraine/Russia war has escalated, Israel is in full out war in the Middle East and the United States is going to get involved.  Wait till there is a ground assault...this will be Iraq all over again!

 

If you think he's a peace maker...let him make peace.  But the hypocrisy of the right has the same exact stench as the left.  Cheers!

 

 

But see this is were some of the deranged really shine. Being flexible and able to pivot is a strength, not a weakness. It's like someone saying, Im bearish and holding puts and cash and then out of nowhere saying theyre long because an opportunity arose. These dimwits application of TDS would be "ah he lied! hes incompetent, he got suckered into being long!"....

 

It's clear Trump thinks there's an opportunity to take advantage of Iran and if he can have Israel do it for him, he'll try and otherwise he'll assess as it progresses. I dont have any issue with that. It is what it is. Im just amazed at how obsessed so many people are with the mental fixation on Trump.

[Gregmal]

Just now, Blake Hampton said:

 

See the problem with investors generally is that they've been trained to think macro is immaterial, just like they've been trained into thinking that putting 100% of their money in the S&P 500, no matter the valuation, is somehow prudent.

 

Fiscal deficits will soon be approaching $2.5 trillion, possibly even closer to $3 trillion.

A $2.5 trillion deficit is $19,000 in Treasury issuance annually for every single U.S. household. You have Buffett repeatedly warning about runaway inflation, Dimon explicitly saying that we're going to see a severe bond market crisis, and this is supposed to somehow be "useless and immaterial."

 

I disagree.

 

If you don't like what I write, don't read it.

And at what point do you admit youre wrong? Or is there honor in being one of those dudes who is wrong and strong and underperforms for a decade or two?

[ourkid8]

1 hour ago, Parsad said:

 

Ourkid8, please be careful throwing around the word Zionist in a derogatory fashion.  Cheers!

I am not sure what I said wrong but let me DM you  

[John Hjorth]

2 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

See the problem with investors generally is that they've been trained to think macro is immaterial, just like they've been trained into thinking that putting 100% of their money in the S&P 500, no matter the valuation, is somehow prudent.

 

Fiscal deficits will soon be approaching $2.5 trillion, possibly even closer to $3 trillion.

A $2.5 trillion deficit is $19,000 in Treasury issuance annually for every single U.S. household. You have Buffett repeatedly warning about runaway inflation, Dimon explicitly saying that we're going to see a severe bond market crisis, and this is supposed to somehow be "useless and immaterial."

 

I disagree.

 

If you don't like what I write, don't read it.

 

I'm not going to spend as much as a second more on you. Welcome to my ignore list.

[Parsad]

1 minute ago, Blake Hampton said:

 

See the problem with investors generally is that they've been trained to think macro is immaterial, just like they've been trained into thinking that putting 100% of their money in the S&P 500, no matter the valuation, is somehow prudent.

 

Fiscal deficits will soon be approaching $2.5 trillion, possibly even closer to $3 trillion.

A $2.5 trillion deficit is $19,000 in Treasury issuance annually for every single U.S. household. You have Buffett repeatedly warning about runaway inflation, Dimon explicitly saying that we're going to see a severe bond market crisis, and this is supposed to somehow be "useless and immaterial."

 

I disagree.

 

If you don't like what I write, don't read it.

 

Macro in 98% of cases is immaterial.  And in the 2% of cases where it is material (1929, 2008), you will be wrong probably longer than you can afford to be right or you won't see it till it's too late. 

 

I wasn't around for 1929, but you would have missed the entire 1920's run up.  I was around for 2008, and the only reason I got it right was because of Prem and Fairfax's insights into what was happening.  But then they got it wrong on the eventual bull market because they thought things would get worse and kept their shorts/hedges on.

 

The simple solution, and it works, is buy when you find cheap things.  If you can't find something, then sit on cash and bonds until you can find something.  Because you might not have 10 great ideas, concentration in the good ideas you have may be necessary.  

 

Regardless...as a young person who is growing their capital for the longer term...you are doing a disservice to yourself trying to play the macro game.  It's as hard as the micro game that traders participate in.  Cheers!

[Parsad]

8 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

But see this is were some of the deranged really shine. Being flexible and able to pivot is a strength, not a weakness. It's like someone saying, Im bearish and holding puts and cash and then out of nowhere saying theyre long because an opportunity arose. These dimwits application of TDS would be "ah he lied! hes incompetent, he got suckered into being long!"....

 

It's clear Trump thinks there's an opportunity to take advantage of Iran and if he can have Israel do it for him, he'll try and otherwise he'll assess as it progresses. I dont have any issue with that. It is what it is. Im just amazed at how obsessed so many people are with the mental fixation on Trump.

 

Gawd Greg!  That fixation is equally ingrained in the right, but you don't criticize them.  

 

I'm really a centrist, but I jump on the left support when I keep hearing the hypocrisy of the right.  

 

We know this fucker was a MAGA supporter...he killed democratic leaders and was going after a lot of progressive individuals who clearly would be designated democratic or left.  Yet no one on the right will even admit that...or that inflammatory rhetoric from Trump and the right may have precipitated this nutjob into action!

 

Let's attack and kill other Americans because we don't agree with their ideology.  We saw this coming years ago and it's here.  Call the Marines on protestors who set 3 Waymos on fire or on criminal aliens illegally in the U.S., but change gun laws so that mass shootings (actual murders) of other Americans...gawd no!  

 

The hypocrisy exists on both sides...but to feign that the left doth protest too much...well, that's plain bullshit!  Cheers!

[Blake Hampton]

11 minutes ago, Parsad said:

Macro in 98% of cases is immaterial.  And in the 2% of cases where it is material (1929, 2008), you will be wrong probably longer than you can afford to be right or you won't see it till it's too late. 

 

I wasn't around for 1929, but you would have missed the entire 1920's run up.  I was around for 2008, and the only reason I got it right was because of Prem and Fairfax's insights into what was happening.  But then they got it wrong on the eventual bull market because they thought things would get worse and kept their shorts/hedges on.

 

The simple solution, and it works, is buy when you find cheap things.  If you can't find something, then sit on cash and bonds until you can find something.  Because you might not have 10 great ideas, concentration in the good ideas you have may be necessary.  

 

Regardless...as a young person who is growing their capital for the longer term...you are doing a disservice to yourself trying to play the macro game.  It's as hard as the micro game that traders participate in.  Cheers!

I guess I'm turning into Cubs because it feels like I can't budge on how important this is.

 

I respect a lot of you, I believe this board is extremely intelligent on average, but I still think people are largely ignoring these risks. I think that the 2% of the time where macro is important might just be enough to kill you if you're not prepared for it. Maybe missing the 1920's was worth it if you didn't get completely crushed during the crash.

 

This is a hill I'm going to die on.

 

Edited June 18, 2025 by Blake Hampton

[Gregmal]

14 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

I'm not going to spend as much as a second more on you. Welcome to my ignore list.

I think @Castanzasaid it best awhile ago; that Blake has some great potential if hes willing to learn, but also has demonstrated that its also possible he'll just be an immense waste of talent who looks a gifthorse in the mouth and rides off on a cloud of arrogance. 

Edited June 18, 2025 by Gregmal

[Parsad]

11 minutes ago, ourkid8 said:

I am not sure what I said wrong but let me DM you  

 

"Zionist propaganda"...I sympathize with everything going on in the Middle East, but October 7th happened...which instigated all of the mayhem we are witnessing today.  Who started it...Hamas.  Who funded it...Iran. 

 

Israel may be pushing their agenda, but so is everyone else.  Cheers!