Political Posts

[dwy000]

52 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

What?  There were no deals with anyone.  This was a unilateral cave.  And they won't release a list of the countries that called to make a deal....because there isn't one.

 

Theres no master plan. If this was the plan all along (a unilateral cave in with no new deals) were Trump and Bessent lying all week?

[cubsfan]

57 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

 

No doubt about it. Seen it several times - high stakes negotiations take time. Now everyone gets to rethink their positions during the pause. Trump shows his flexibility - same with Ukraine/Russia war. 

 

There is so much at stake. Opponents really wish good old pushover Joe was back in charge.

 

[Gregmal]

18 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

@CastanzaYeah, I agree with most of that.  Its really not difficult at all to ignore the noise.  I find the local barber shop (was there this morning) one of the best places to get news and a cross-section of opinion.  Likewise local coffee shops in early mornings along with the gym at about 5:00 am.  These are people who mostly work or if retired, maintain healthy habits.  Anecdotally, these folks seem to have more important things on their minds than Trump and his latest antics because they've lived through far worse.  "This too shall pass" is a common refrain.     

I get it to an extent; like when I was younger, as a Yankee and Devils fan, I’d occasionally tune in to Red Sox or Ranger games and enjoy rooting against them. It was kinda fun. I’m older now and have actually done a 180 where I enjoy just watching good sport, so I can watch both teams and just enjoy the experience versus being filled with negative energy as I did as a younger guy. But this shit now? Where we see grown adults vehemently rooting against our country, our economy, hoping for bad shit because they don’t like the politician that was democratically elected? That’s about as high up on the “piece of shit” spectrum as you can get. Wish everyone could just get along and prosper together.

Edited April 10, 2025 by Gregmal

[james22]

4 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

Theres no master plan.

 

Yeah, the billionaire 2X President doesn’t understand negotiating but dwy000 (paying $2K/month for a one-bedroom apartment with a view of the next building) does.

[Gregmal]

9 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

What?  There were no deals with anyone.  This was a unilateral cave.  And they won't release a list of the countries that called to make a deal....because there isn't one.

 

Theres no master plan. If this was the plan all along (a unilateral cave in with no new deals) were Trump and Bessent lying all week?

Throughout this thread you seem to have this sense of entitlement that Trump or the administration has this obligation to disclose everything for you; to answer to your interrogations…why lol? 
 

The reason they aren’t disclosing is super fuckin simple! It’s the same reason many companies don’t disclose customer relationships or contracts; with full blessing from the SEC! It’s because it weakens your bargaining position….like wtf is so hard for people to understand about this? Crazy thing is that if this was a business or stock we were talking about, I’m 100% sure you’d understand this.

[cubsfan]

15 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

@CastanzaYeah, I agree with most of that.  Its really not difficult at all to ignore the noise.  I find the local barber shop (was there this morning) one of the best places to get news and a cross-section of opinion.  Likewise local coffee shops in early mornings along with the gym at about 5:00 am.  These are people who mostly work or if retired, maintain healthy habits.  Anecdotally, these folks seem to have more important things on their minds than Trump and his latest antics because they've lived through far worse.  "This too shall pass" is a common refrain.     

 

So spot on. Hanging around with normal hardworking middle class Americans is a great way to stay grounded. This country is founded on them and well reflects traditional values.

 

I get it at my gym every day - no ones hair was on fire all week. It's kind of hilarious.

[73 Reds]

2 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

I get it to an extent; like when I was younger, as a Yankee and Devils fan, I’d occasionally tune in to Red Sox or Ranger games and enjoy rooting against them. It was kinda fun. I’m older now and have actually done a 180 where I enjoy just watching good sport, so I can watch both teams and just enjoy the experience versus being filled with negative energy as I did as a younger guy. But this shit now? Where we see grown adults vehemently rooting against our country, our economy, hoping for bad shit because they don’t like the politician that was democratically elected? That’s about as high up on the “prince of shit” spectrum as you can get. Wish everyone could just get along and prosper together.

Of course.  But you're really only hearing outspoken talking heads who believe they are smarter than they are.  Or even worse, people who have made it in one aspect of life and henceforth believe they are experts on everything.  That's why for me its easy to ignore social media.  Even so, most people just get on with their lives.

[james22]

3 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Throughout this thread you seem to have this sense of entitlement that Trump or the administration has this obligation to disclose everything for you; to answer to your interrogations…why lol? 

 

Because dwy000 negotiated his first month's rent free!

[Sweet]

MAGA - art of the deal.

 

Critics - he caved.

 

It’s all so tiring because it’s not obvious that a) there has been any masterful deal making or even a plan that wasn’t ’let’s just try this’, or b) that he caved empty handed.

 

Just non-stop shilling.

[cubsfan]

4 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

Yeah, the billionaire 2X President doesn’t understand negotiating but dwy000 (paying $2K/month for a one-bedroom apartment with a view of the next building) does.

 

They say the same thing about the Ukraine war, which no one in Europe wanted to act like the adult in the room and talk peace. Fixing difficult problems requires courage. It's easier to cheer on the killing, keep selling arms, but not put your money where your mouth is - and send your own troops.

[dwy000]

15 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Throughout this thread you seem to have this sense of entitlement that Trump or the administration has this obligation to disclose everything for you; to answer to your interrogations…why lol? 
 

The reason they aren’t disclosing is super fuckin simple! It’s the same reason many companies don’t disclose customer relationships or contracts; with full blessing from the SEC! It’s because it weakens your bargaining position….like wtf is so hard for people to understand about this? Crazy thing is that if this was a business or stock we were talking about, I’m 100% sure you’d understand this.

Me?  This isnt about me.  How about the American people he purports to represent?  He blatantly lied all week long causing the markets to crash and bonds to go nuts. And he didn't even get a deal! He unilaterally changed what he unilaterally put in place days before. What negotiations are we even talking about? 

 

His lead negotiator was in front of congress testifying and wasn't even aware that Trump announced the pause.  Bessent wasn't involved in the original tariffs going on. This is a clown show where nobody knows what's going on day to day and the US (and global) economy are taking the brunt of jt.

 

And my biggest complaint all along is that we still have no idea what the end game is?  Why are businesses being subjected to the turmoil?  Looking for TRUTHFUL answers not from talking heads or pundits but from those causing it.  Navarro's explanations are now out the windows and he appears on his way out. 

 

Forget.my entitlement, isn't the country entitled to answers?

Edited April 10, 2025 by dwy000

[cubsfan]

13 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Throughout this thread you seem to have this sense of entitlement that Trump or the administration has this obligation to disclose everything for you; to answer to your interrogations…why lol? 
 

The reason they aren’t disclosing is super fuckin simple! It’s the same reason many companies don’t disclose customer relationships or contracts; with full blessing from the SEC! It’s because it weakens your bargaining position….like wtf is so hard for people to understand about this? Crazy thing is that if this was a business or stock we were talking about, I’m 100% sure you’d understand this.

 

Spot on. Only an idiot shows all their cards in a high stakes negotiation. 

It does not get more basic than that.

[james22]

6 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

Looking for TRUTHFUL answers not from talking heads or pundits but from those causing it.  

 

In poker, irrational play, while seemingly counterintuitive, can sometimes offer unexpected value by exploiting rational players who are predictable and fail to account for such behavior. This can lead to winning hands or bluffs that would otherwise be impossible. 

 

Here's a more detailed explanation: 

 

Exploiting Predictability:

 

Rational players often rely on patterns and strategies to make decisions, making them vulnerable to players who deviate from those norms.

 

Creating Bluff Opportunities:

 

Irrational play can make a bluff more believable, as opponents might not expect it, leading to more successful bluff attempts.

 

Value Betting:

 

By making seemingly random bets, you can confuse opponents and create opportunities to extract more value when you have a strong hand.

 

Misleading Opponents:

 

Irrational play can make it difficult for opponents to accurately assess your hand strength, leading to miscalculations and bad decisions.

[Gregmal]

6 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

 

Forget.my entitlement, isn't the country entitled to answers?

This is just sooo naive. When have we ever got satisfactory answers? We still haven’t gotten much about Covid after being lied to nonstop for 5 years. Everyone was rooting on Jerry Powells “mind games” with the lingo and rhetoric because it was all about “the end result”. But now, for the first time ever! “We the people” need negotiation crippling detail and disclose about something that hasn’t even really started yet?

[changegonnacome]

8 hours ago, Parsad said:

Do people realize that this guy is just riffing?  He has no plan, just freestyling it! 

 

100000% Larry Summers kindly called it a "improvisational strategy".......reports show the nonsense tariff calculation was decided on the morning of Liberation day because it pleased Trump the most.....even though work had been on-going in Bessent's treasury department for months which was rooted in actual econometric analysis around purchasing power parity/currency manipulation, tariffs & non-tariff barriers.....all that was tossed......and giant gameshow bingo cards we're printed up for the President to hold that had territories on it inhabited only by penguins.

[formthirteen]

4 minutes ago, james22 said:

exploiting rational players who are predictable and fail to account for such behavior

 

EU?

[Gregmal]

6 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

100000% Larry Summers kindly called it a "improvisational strategy".......reports show the nonsense tariff calculation was decided on the morning of Liberation day because it pleased Trump the most.....even though work had been on-going in Bessent's treasury department for months which was rooted in actual econometric analysis around purchasing power parity/currency manipulation, tariffs & non-tariff barriers.....all that was tossed......and giant gameshow bingo cards we're printed up for the President to hold that had territories on it inhabited only by penguins.

Come on don’t we know by know that there’s no bigger POS mouthpiece than Larry Summers? The guy who is always predicting incoming disaster and spouting negativity, yet none of his predictions have come close to matching the dearth of things he’s been an utter failure at when it comes to actually flipping the cards over.

 

https://ritholtz.com/2021/06/why-does-anyone-care-what-lawrence-summers-thinks/

[Ulti]

7 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Come on don’t we know by know that there’s no bigger POS mouthpiece than Larry Summers? The guy who is always predicting incoming disaster and spouting negativity, yet none of his predictions have come close to matching the dearth of things he’s been an utter failure at when it comes to actually flipping the cards over.

 

https://ritholtz.com/2021/06/why-does-anyone-care-what-lawrence-summers-thinks/

Kinda like Ray Dalio

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/03/predicting-a-financial-crisis/

[Gregmal]

It’s like think about it. The “was there a plan” quandary so many are absolutely obsessed with. Well, was there? Or wasn’t there? I dunno. If I had to guess, I would it’s more likely than not there was some sort of strategy behind the approach…but I don’t give it a whole lot more thought than that. Because…what exactly do I get, if I know with absolute certainty, whether there was or wasn’t a plan? It’s the living definition of that saying “play stupid games, win stupid prizes”… but have fun guys.

[lnofeisone]

37 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

Spot on. Only an idiot shows all their cards in a high stakes negotiation. 

It does not get more basic than that.

Joke's on you thinking he has cards. He has crayons and everyone sees the colors. 

[changegonnacome]

2 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Come on don’t we know by know that there’s no bigger POS mouthpiece than Larry Summers? The guy who is always predicting incoming disaster and spouting negativity, yet none of his predictions have come close to matching the dearth of things he’s been an utter failure at when it comes to actually flipping the cards over.

 

No endorsement of Larry - simply saying that improvisational strategy is nice way of saying what is inherently true and this tariff rollout debacle should be confirming that and giving people Trump 1.0 deja vu......

 

Trump is not a competent executive in the sense that he is unable to take the kernel of a good policy like re-industrialization and actually deliver it in a structured coherent manner (as a true executive would)..and it goes to @Castanza's point on remaining independent in the tribal era......I agree with a descent subset of the President's policies......what I dont agree with ala Liberation Day is the ramshackle and frankly incompetent implementation of those policies......you can be for the President's intent on certain issues (immigration/trade) but recognize he is simply incompetent in his ability to deliver those policies......and even less so now in Trump 2.0 than 1.0.....given he's prioritized loyalty over competency in those he's surrounded himself with.

[Eldad]

He became President twice with the entire established world order trying to prevent it. 
 

He may not be a high IQ individual, but he is cunning as hell and history shows he usually has a pretty good and pretty unorthodox plan. 

[james22]

1 minute ago, changegonnacome said:

No endorsement of Larry - simply saying that improvisational strategy is nice way of saying what is inherently true . . .

 

Dependent upon the reactions of others, plans HAVE to be improvisational.

 

You can ONLY scenario plan.

 

Success will also depend (largely) upon the rationality of the other actors. If China chooses war over fair trade, that's on them.

[dwy000]

27 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

100000% Larry Summers kindly called it a "improvisational strategy".......reports show the nonsense tariff calculation was decided on the morning of Liberation day because it pleased Trump the most.....even though work had been on-going in Bessent's treasury department for months which was rooted in actual econometric analysis around purchasing power parity/currency manipulation, tariffs & non-tariff barriers.....all that was tossed......and giant gameshow bingo cards we're printed up for the President to hold that had territories on it inhabited only by penguins.

Oh give me a break. Nobody's looking for crippling details and you know it.  But a broad, even remote rationale for sending the global economy into a tailspin would be nice.  Especially when it turns out that ChatGPT was rhe basis for the starting point. 

 

Keep.in mind the emergency rationale that permits all these tariffs is fentanyl.  We all know that's bullshit for justifying tariffs on Switzerland and Australia (and Canada).  

 

And when you unilaterally reduce and pause the tariffs without negotiating with anyone (to the surprise of.your lead negotiator), its not about the crippling details. It's about the big picture. 

[james22]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

But this shit now? Where we see grown adults vehemently rooting against our country, our economy, hoping for bad shit because they don’t like the politician that was democratically elected? That’s about as high up on the “piece of shit” spectrum as you can get. Wish everyone could just get along and prosper together.

 

Oppositional Defiant Disorder

 

Which is to say, anything that Trump says, does or supports must be resisted (sometimes violently) because, by definition, he is an agent of a foreign government bent on destroying the country.

 

Is Trump a brilliant political strategist? I don’t know, but I would submit that he doesn’t have to be.

 

He has recognized the fact pattern I’ve outlined above and has been able to maneuver Democrats and their most rabid Resistance voters into a series of unpopular positions simply by taking the 80% side of a series of 80/20 issues and daring the Left to take the 20% side.

 

https://thecontinentalcongress.substack.com/p/all-the-presidents-men-and-the-end