Political Posts

[Kizion]

19 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

You still holding PDD?

 

Yes, probably panic selling later on today (also BEKE btw)  

Sometimes you have to take your loss - I just don't see it, as it's only listed on US stock exchange, so risk of delisting (no trade possible, until new listing) and probably Chinese gov. is not putting a floor under this one. So I will sell my PDD but I will increase my Prosus/Tencent holdings, because I still believe in China. 

Edited April 9, 2025 by Kizion

[73 Reds]

4 minutes ago, Sweet said:

 

You're acting like he campaigned on the current policy when he did not.  The reaction, from those who have been supportive of Trump, should tell you that the way this has been implemented has come as quite a surprise.  Arguing that this was foreseeable - which you appear to be doing - is nothing but hindsight bias.

People get upset when reality doesn't suit their agendas.  What else is new?

[Blake Hampton]

I would say a lot of us are repetitive. I know I am.

[Blake Hampton]

This has to be one of the weirdest markets ever. Specifically, the treasury market volatility is insane.

 

Edited April 9, 2025 by Blake Hampton

[Sweet]

6 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

People get upset when reality doesn't suit their agendas.  What else is new?

That's not what I said though.  I could care less about their agenda.  I am saying that Trump banging the table about tariffs during the election campaign (and before) does not mean that those who supported him, or even his tariff position, support or voted for this iteration of the tariffs.

[gfp]

5 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

This has to be one of the weirdest markets ever. Specifically, the treasury market volatility is insane.

 

 

This one looks pretty wild too, right?

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/@CL.1

[73 Reds]

1 minute ago, Sweet said:

That's not what I said though.  I could care less about their agenda.  I am saying that Trump banging the table about tariffs during the election campaign (and before) does not mean that those who supported him, or even his tariff position, support or voted for this iteration of the tariffs.

The "supporters" you speak of are all public figures with agendas.  More than half the US population supported him.  

[Buckeye]

6 hours ago, Sweet said:

I don’t think anyone who voted for Trump expected a tariff policy like this.  Yes there is blame for them voting for it, but it’s not like they voted explicitly for this policy.

LOL. The rewriting of history has begun

[Blake Hampton]

Today:

 

"Bessent pointed to comments by a Spanish policymaker this week entertaining closer ties to China. “That would be cutting your own throat,” he said."

Bessent wrote an op-ed in the WSJ last year, where he denounced—and actually insulted—economists for thinking “Trump’s economic agenda would be disastrous for the U.S.” Ever since then I’ve thought he's a prick. This is exactly the sort of rhetoric that’s going to destroy what little goodwill our country has left.

 

Irony is a bitch.

 

WSJ Op-Ed:

Markets Hail Trump’s Economics - Nov. 10, 2024

 

"Twenty-three Nobel laureates in economics warned two weeks ago that Donald Trump’s economic agenda would be disastrous for the U.S. Immediately after Mr. Trump’s landslide victory, financial markets showed they vehemently disagree. Let’s hope none of the Nobel laureates adjusted their retirement portfolios; otherwise their 401(k)s may be suffering as badly as their reputations.

 

Asset prices are fickle, and long-term economic performance is the ultimate measuring stick. But recent days prove markets’ unambiguous embrace of the Trump 2.0 economic vision. Markets are signaling expectations of higher growth, lower volatility and inflation, and a revitalized economy for all Americans.

 

Mr. Trump’s election drove the largest single-day increase in the U.S. dollar in more than two years, and third largest in the last decade. This is a vote of confidence in U.S. leadership internationally and in the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. The Russell 2000, an index of small-capitalization stocks, also rose by the most in two years due to investor expectations that the Trump economy will disproportionately benefit smaller businesses. An exchange-traded fund that tracks the Russell 2000 index saw its largest single-day inflow in 17 years.

 

The rally in equities was particularly unusual given that interest rates also moved higher. The combination of the steepening yield curve, stable inflation expectations and the rise in stocks indicates that markets expect the Trump agenda to foster noninflationary growth that will drive private investment. Even amid the expected pro-growth agenda and the associated increased demand for energy, the price of oil fell. Energy stocks rallied at the same time, signaling expectations of more energy production and geopolitical stability.

 

While markets expect a reinvigorated American economy, the Biden administration’s mismanagement has created serious challenges that Mr. Trump will need to overcome. Economic growth has been propped up by the out-of-control federal deficit, which hit 7% of gross domestic product last year. Mr. Trump has a mandate to reprivatize the U.S. economy through deregulation and tax reform to spur the supply-side growth that he delivered in his first term. That will be essential to restarting the American growth engine, reducing inflationary pressures, and addressing the debt burden from four years of reckless spending.

 

The U.S. economy also faces the consequences of the Biden administration’s distortion of capital allocation. U.S. competitiveness has been weakened by destructive energy policies and the channeling of investment toward a quixotic energy transition and semiconductor fabrication plants subject to government mandates that render them uneconomic. Mr. Trump will deliver a renaissance in American energy investment and ensure that trade is free and fair, supporting long-term U.S. competitiveness.

 

Allowing the private sector rather than the government to allocate capital is crucial to growth. The U.S. must reform the Inflation Reduction Act’s distortionary incentives that encourage unproductive investment, which has to be sustained by a lifetime of subsidies. Overhauling the regulatory and supervisory environment will encourage more lending and reinvigorate banks.

 

Mr. Trump must also address government borrowing. U.S. interest expense exceeds the defense budget. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has distorted Treasury markets by borrowing more than $1 trillion in more-expensive shorter-term debt compared with historical norms. Terming out that debt in favor of a more orthodox borrowing profile may increase longer-term interest rates and will need to be deftly handled. The only way to return to a prudent borrowing strategy without upsetting financial markets is restoring investors’ faith in the economy and preserving the dollar’s global role.

 

The failure of Bidenomics is clear. But Mr. Trump has turned around the economy before, and he is ready to do so again. Twenty-three Nobel laureates might not understand this, but the financial markets have clearly spoken."

 

Edited April 9, 2025 by Blake Hampton

[Blake Hampton]

8 minutes ago, gfp said:

This one looks pretty wild too, right?

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/@CL.1

Another day in paradise. Just remember that inflation is coming.

[Sweet]

7 minutes ago, Buckeye said:

LOL. The rewriting of history has begun

That's a statement of fact.  Not a rewriting of history Buckeye.

 

If I am wrong you will be able to show me Trump verbalising the policy as enacted, or it written down in a manifesto somewhere.

 

Otherwise stop being lame.  You can believe in an idea and then think the implementation has been awful - it's not one or another.

 

Edited April 9, 2025 by Sweet

[John Hjorth]

I just got this by visiting this topic - I've never seen this version of it before - symptom of the times  ? :

 

[Sweet]

2 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

I just got this by visiting this topic - I've never seen this version of it before - symptom of the times  ? :

 

Get that all the time.

[gfp]

5 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

Another day in paradise. Just remember that inflation is coming.

 

Does inflation cause oil to go up?  Or vice versa?

[Sinbius]

I think now a very smart negotiation tactic for Trump should be to raise China tariff to 150%...and show the world who is the boss!!! (...kidding of course...)

 

Will he do it?...or maybe adding something more strong!

Edited April 9, 2025 by Sinbius

[Blake Hampton]

7 minutes ago, gfp said:

Does inflation cause oil to go up?  Or vice versa?

 

Oil can certainly cause inflation, and oil has also done well during inflation historically. It's a real asset that markets flood into when the purchasing power of their money really gets in question. We're not there yet but we will be. The dollar is currently weakening alongside extreme volatility in Treasury markets. Nothing about this is normal.

 

Edited April 9, 2025 by Blake Hampton

[Paarslaars]

10 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

I just got this by visiting this topic - I've never seen this version of it before - symptom of the times  ? :

 

I've never lived through a time where economic policies could change to drastically from day to day...

[gfp]

2 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

 

Oil certainly causes inflation and oil has also done well during inflation historically. It's a real asset that markets flood into when the purchasing power of their money is in question.

 

Do markets flood into oil?  Or do they only buy the oil they intend to consume?

 

What about taxes, do taxes cause inflation?

 

And recessions - do they cause inflation?

[alpha]

Quote

“BE COOL! Everything is going to work out well,” Trump wrote on Truth Social three minutes after markets opened in the red, again.

[John Hjorth]

lol :

 

[Sweet]

4 minutes ago, Sinbius said:

I think now a very smart negotiation tactic for Trump should be to raise China tariff to 150%...and show the world who is the boss!!! (...kidding of course...)

 

Will he do it?...or maybe adding something more strong!

 

At some point, not sure when that is, raising and raising makes no difference.  It could be already, the products coming out of China might already be uneconomic, in which case a 1000% tariff would make no difference because the damage has already been done.  If anyone has a feel for were that tipping point is please post it.

[Luke]

Just now, alpha said:

Quote

“BE COOL! Everything is going to work out well,” Trump wrote on Truth Social three minutes after markets opened in the red, again.

Haha, his need for tweeting daily "EVERYTHING GONNA BE ALRIGHT BE COOL" is so pathetic frankly.

[Blake Hampton]

1 minute ago, gfp said:

Do markets flood into oil?  Or do they only buy the oil they intend to consume?

 

What about taxes, do taxes cause inflation?

 

And recessions - do they cause inflation?

 

I don't know, you tell me.

[Luke]

Just now, John Hjorth said:

lol :

 

Great time to buy his own company xD Hilarious

[Gregmal]

1 minute ago, gfp said:

 

Do markets flood into oil?  Or do they only buy the oil they intend to consume?

 

What about taxes, do taxes cause inflation?

 

And recessions - do they cause inflation?

Yea I don’t get it. It’s incredible the amount of people whom think this is going to lead to inflation. Staggering even.