Political Posts

[cubsfan]

Just now, Xerxes said:

Based on what Koffman had said in the last few podcast (before the tantrum in the Oval Office), Ukraine is still holding its own.
 

so while strategic picture and long term prospect has had a material changed, the tactical picture on the ground has not. So no collapse of the frontline etc 

 

That's a very good thing. Gives time for Europe to prepare for the Russian offensive this spring.

[cubsfan]

1 hour ago, lnofeisone said:

 

Speaking of our outlier leader, he just crossed favorable/unfavorable (very much entering unfavorable). Even Joe Biden took 9 months to get to this point. 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/

 

And now CBS the Trump-hating pollsters are putting this out:

 

More from the CBS poll on President Trump’s speech last night:

 -77% support his plan to cut government waste and spending

- 77% back his immigration and border policies

- 76% approve of Trump’s speech

- 76% approve of removing congressmen who interrupted his speech

- 74% say his speech was presidential

- 73% support his stance on Russia and Ukraine

- 68% say it made them feel hopeful and proud

- 68% say he has a clear plan to tackle inflation

- 68% say he accurately described America’s crime crisis

- 63% say he focused on issues they care about

[lnofeisone]

25 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Well that’s does not exactly sounds like it will save money either.

Would be interesting to know how much each person brings in versus what they cost.

 

DOGE shouldn’t have  this number and if  they don’t how do they decide to fire them?

I know several LB&I Revenue Agents who were let go. All hyper-talented folks from the likes of PWC, Deloitte, BDO. Some handled tax accounts for the stocks we discusson this board.

 

This means that tax issues won't get solved as fast and since most corporate taxpayers tend to pre-pay while debating issues, this is capital tied up at 6% (IRS will pay interest) while taxes are being resolved. Doesn't take much to figure out that a $1.5M tax issue delayed a year just cost corporate tax payer (and ergo shareholders) the salary of a revenue agent. Just to give you a feel for the magnitude of LB&I issues, Coca-Cola paid $6B in back taxes while waiting for the judge's decision. But sure, our outlier president can claim he saved $150k cutting a revenue agent while costing shareholders tens of millions in opportunity cost. 

 

https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2024-08-05/coca-cola-to-pay-6-billion-in-irs-back-taxes-case-while-appealing-judges-decision

[Gregmal]

50 minutes ago, rogermunibond said:

Are you guys operating from the same talking points?

 

Or are your Russian bots? 

 

I mean some of it has gotten to a point where even very basic stuff gives people trouble. Let’s say 2+2=4….

 

Theres huge troves of people who will take something as obvious as that, and respond with the like of 

 

-“That’s a Putin talking point”

-“you’re doing it wrong if you’re trying to address that”

-“Russian propaganda”

-“it’s too early to tell”

-“well actually it’s pretty clearly 22”

 

So it is what it is and all we can do is keep our senses and admire the power of derangement syndrome, whatever the root may be. 

Edited March 5, 2025 by Gregmal

[lnofeisone]

6 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

And now CBS the Trump-hating pollsters are putting this out:

 

 

More from the CBS poll on President Trump’s speech last night:

 -77% support his plan to cut government waste and spending

- 77% back his immigration and border policies

- 76% approve of Trump’s speech

- 76% approve of removing congressmen who interrupted his speech

- 74% say his speech was presidential

- 73% support his stance on Russia and Ukraine

- 68% say it made them feel hopeful and proud

- 68% say he has a clear plan to tackle inflation

- 68% say he accurately described America’s crime crisis

- 63% say he focused on issues they care about

Add a bit of a broader context here about US population:

32% identifies as republican.

15% are center, lean republican.

33% are democrats

16% are center lean democrat

 

51% of viewers identified as republican.

27% of viewers identified as independents

20% of viewers identified as democrats

 

Do you see the sampling problem or do you need me to walk you through how this poll was mostly republican current view of Trump? 

[cubsfan]

4 minutes ago, lnofeisone said:

 

Do you see the sampling problem or do you need me to walk you through how this poll was mostly republican current view of Trump? 

 

No shit sherlock. Like @flesh said - polls are a joke. Keep throwing the up though.

[Gregmal]

Well, more generally, Trump haters spent the past 9 years crying wolf and had their guy in to be the solution the past four and we all know how that went; so who cares what they have to say because we’ve already heard it all from them and their solution was a total failure lol 

[Buckeye]

2 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

No shit sherlock. Like @flesh said - polls are a joke. Keep throwing the up though.

Hahahaha. So the poll that you posted is a joke? Why did you post it then? 

[cwericb]

Good Lord? Is Trump a complete idiot or is he simply a compulsive liar?

 

This took place today: 

“Justin Trudeau, of Canada, called me to ask what could be done about Tariffs. I told him that many people have died from Fentanyl that came through the Borders of Canada and Mexico, and nothing has convinced me that it has stopped. He said that it’s gotten better, but I said, ‘That’s not good enough,’” Trump wrote. 

 

Fact:  

Dear Mr. Trump. U.S. Federal statistics show US border authorities seized 21,889 pounds of fentanyl in the 2024 fiscal year. Of that amount, 43 pounds were seized at the Canadian border compared with 21,148 pounds at the Mexican border. 

 

And here is Trump displaying a complete ignorance of the Canadian system of government: 

Trump added: “The call ended in a ‘somewhat’ friendly manner! He was unable to tell me when the Canadian Election is taking place, which made me curious, like, what’s going on here? I then realized he is trying to use this issue to stay in power. Good luck Justin!” 

 

Dear Mr Trump,  

First off Trudeau has already submitted his resignation. Please try to keep up.  

Second the replacement process is already underway. 

 

It is so disappointing that so many of his cult either believe everything he says or are afraid to correct him. 

[Sweet]

1 hour ago, cubsfan said:

 

Absoutely correct. But the warmonger Biden was kicked out of office in favor of peacemaker.

 

Is Putin a warmonger?

 

I wouldn’t call Biden a warmonger, it’s not like he wanted war.  In fact he tried to stop it by publicly releasing confident Russian plans in the hopes of deterring them.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

16 hours ago, lnofeisone said:

Here we go - https://federalnewsnetwork.com/federal-newscast/2025/03/national-science-foundation-rehires-half-of-employees-fired-two-weeks-ago/

 

NSF is now bringing back workers who were illegally let go. They will also be getting back pay, and I suspect there will be lawsuit compensation for them in the future. If only this admin had followed the process and done it the right way, as most of the HR departments had told them to do. Talk about waste and abuse. Throw in DOJ lying to courts on OPM's behalf and you have fraud. 

 

 

If only this was somehow foreseeable...

 

/Sarcasm

 

 

6 hours ago, lnofeisone said:

One of several reasons why they couldn't produce it is because there are a bunch of people in that database that were born 100+ years ago but there was little or no documentation of their birth or death. So SSA knows these people exist because they worked and paid SS, but they don't have exact birthdates or the documents of their deaths haven't been submitted. It's somewhat recent that death documentation gets sent to SSA (coroners, hospitals, credit card companies are now required to do so). 

 

So database has these people but they don't get any checks sent to them. Sure, there might be some grandma stuck in a freezer somewhere and her grandson is collecting her checks but that's not really gov't's fraud, waste, and abuse. 

 

+1 

 

Just more smoke and mirrors. Elon and DJT know this isn't the bombshell they're making it out to be. They want us focused on this instead of other things like DJTs administration falsifying the documents for the $400 million in Tesla cybertrucks to make it appear as if that was Biden's administration...

[Mephistopheles]

32 minutes ago, cwericb said:

 

 

It is so disappointing that so many of his cult either believe everything he says or are afraid to correct him. 

 

It wouldn't be a cult otherwise!

[cubsfan]

33 minutes ago, cwericb said:

It is so disappointing that so many of his cult either believe everything he says or are afraid to correct him. 

 

Trudeau is your idiot not ours. 

 

Why are you allowing him to negotiate on behalf of the Canadian people?

[cubsfan]

31 minutes ago, Sweet said:

Is Putin a warmonger?

 

I wouldn’t call Biden a warmonger, it’s not like he wanted war.  In fact he tried to stop it by publicly releasing confident Russian plans in the hopes of deterring them.

 

Of course Putin is a warmonger. 

 

Warmongers take advantage of weak leaders like Biden.  His plan was to keep giving Zelensky money with no end in sight. That's why he got kicked out.

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, cubsfan said:

 

And now CBS the Trump-hating pollsters are putting this out:

 

 

More from the CBS poll on President Trump’s speech last night:

 -77% support his plan to cut government waste and spending

- 77% back his immigration and border policies

- 76% approve of Trump’s speech

- 76% approve of removing congressmen who interrupted his speech

- 74% say his speech was presidential

- 73% support his stance on Russia and Ukraine

- 68% say it made them feel hopeful and proud

- 68% say he has a clear plan to tackle inflation

- 68% say he accurately described America’s crime crisis

- 63% say he focused on issues they care about

 

51% of the respondents were Republican...20% were Democrats.  Cheers!

[Parsad]

2 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

Yes, I'm quite sympathetic that he was foolish enough to try and strong arm the President of the United States. He obviously recieved some very bad advice. He has accomplish one major unintended consequence with this act: The Trump administration that did not trust Zelensky turned out to be correct - and now President Trump knows it.

 

What the hell!  When did he try and strong arm the President?  Jesus!  

[Sweet]

2 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

Of course Putin is a warmonger. 

 

Warmongers take advantage of weak leaders like Biden.  His plan was to keep giving Zelensky money with no end in sight. That's why he got kicked out.

Biden didn’t even run, mostly because of his obvious (to anyone with eyes) failing mental capacity.

 

I don’t really understand the obsession of money in the Ukraine.  The 150 bn US committed to isn’t even a lot compared to GDP or tax receipts.  Likewise for the EU, why does getting payback on the money matter.  They’re giving their lives.  Just seems so shallow.

[Parsad]

5 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

Of course Putin is a warmonger. 

 

Warmongers take advantage of weak leaders like Biden.  His plan was to keep giving Zelensky money with no end in sight. That's why he got kicked out.

 

Putin wasn't getting what he wanted under Biden.  It's now being handed over to him with zero casualties and they won't give up anything.  Putin just took advantage of a weak leader in Trump and Trump is taking advantage of a leader who is trying to save his country.  Two fucking losers that you are proud to trumpet!  Cheers!

[cubsfan]

Just now, Sweet said:

Biden didn’t even run, mostly because of his obvious (to anyone with eyes) failing mental capacity.

 

I don’t really understand the obsession of money in the Ukraine.  The 150 bn US committed to isn’t even a lot compared to GDP or tax receipts.  Likewise for the EU, why does getting payback on the money matter.  They’re giving their lives.  Just seems so shallow.

 

Don't care about the money, just ending the war and saving lives.

But certainly NO more money to a losing war with no end. 

This was obvious enough 2 years ago - so yeah, Biden's circle advised him poorly against no negotiations to end.

[flesh]

40 minutes ago, cwericb said:

Good Lord? Is Trump a complete idiot or is he simply a compulsive liar?

 

This took place today: 

“Justin Trudeau, of Canada, called me to ask what could be done about Tariffs. I told him that many people have died from Fentanyl that came through the Borders of Canada and Mexico, and nothing has convinced me that it has stopped. He said that it’s gotten better, but I said, ‘That’s not good enough,’” Trump wrote. 

 

Fact:  

Dear Mr. Trump. U.S. Federal statistics show US border authorities seized 21,889 pounds of fentanyl in the 2024 fiscal year. Of that amount, 43 pounds were seized at the Canadian border compared with 21,148 pounds at the Mexican border. 

 

And here is Trump displaying a complete ignorance of the Canadian system of government: 

Trump added: “The call ended in a ‘somewhat’ friendly manner! He was unable to tell me when the Canadian Election is taking place, which made me curious, like, what’s going on here? I then realized he is trying to use this issue to stay in power. Good luck Justin!” 

 

Dear Mr Trump,  

First off Trudeau has already submitted his resignation. Please try to keep up.  

Second the replacement process is already underway. 

 

It is so disappointing that so many of his cult either believe everything he says or are afraid to correct him. 

I’ll try to translate trumpese for you. He knows that the total fentanyl crossings from Canada are minor. He wants them reduced. The primary reason he says this is so that he has a stronger reason to impose tariffs that will hold up and he believes that something about trade relations are unfair… smokescreens.  It could be subsidies to certain industries, existing tariffs, tariff like instruments that have the same or similar effect, restrictions, or any other form of distorting effect. Of course free trade with friendlies and maximizing comparative advantage is the ideal, the ideal is never what happens. 
 

I posted in another thread with no response but I’ve yet to see a thorough analysis of all distorting effects on trade between usa and Canada. I personally done know if it’s fair or close to it. If it is I’ll agree it is if it’s wholistic.  
 

Regarding whether or not trumps strategies are, if I’m right, lying. I suppose you could say he’s lying partially.. in the sense that he uses one small reason as the main reason for what he’s doing. Otoh if he’s right and trade is unfair and In order to straighten it out he can’t see another path forward…. That’s a more difficult question. I don’t see how anybody can confidently say anything wo considering what I’ve written here. I originally come back to cobf recently thinking the Canadians … or somebody.. being the smart analytical types that invest.. would have a competent analysis of the trade between the two countries and found the opposite. I haven’t had time to do it my self but I’ll try. Also, if the usa is going to produce some things here for strategic reasons, antifragilityreasons, then that means by definition we will be buying less of those things Elsewhere and that means elsewhere wont be happy about selling less stuff to us. If we can’t compete for ammo prices and we need to manufacture our own, we may need tariffs. 
 

Also don’t assume those of us who voted for him are cultists, you won’t learn anything that way. In 2016 my father voted for him, and hated doing so, being a lifelong Mormon, the cleanest sort, only because he knew the Supreme Court appointees were coming up. He has no idea what happening in general. 
 

for myself, doge and cutting the deficit to 3% of gdp was paramount and the rest noise and I saw the opposite inclination since forever on the other side. For me, if this happens and wars don’t get worse, I’m willing to deal with the fallout as I see it as existential. I voted for Obama Romney Hillary then trump trump. Other things matter but I rank order them low compared to a snowballing debt/interest rate/inflation problem. 
 

For me the biggest mistake of the last four years was allowing the economy to be shuttered excessively and raining money in massive excess. Biggest mistake I’m aware of in my lifetime. I said that here March 2020 more or less. Then Biden doubled  down when the coast was clear. Destroyed the lives of tens of Millions of non asset owners for 79 year olds with 2.5 co morbidities who were going to die shortly and whom we could have targeted for relief at 1/100th the cost. 
 

 

[Gregmal]

5 minutes ago, flesh said:

I’ll try to translate trumpese for you. He knows that the total fentanyl crossings from Canada are minor. He wants them reduced. The primary reason he says this is so that he has a stronger reason to impose tariffs that will hold up and he believes that something about trade relations are unfair… smokescreens.  It could be subsidies to certain industries, existing tariffs, tariff like instruments that have the same or similar effect, restrictions, or any other form of distorting effect. Of course free trade with friendlies and maximizing comparative advantage is the ideal, the ideal is never what happens. 
 

I posted in another thread with no response but I’ve yet to see a thorough analysis of all distorting effects on trade between usa and Canada. I personally done know if it’s fair or close to it. If it is I’ll agree it is if it’s wholistic.  
 

Regarding whether or not trumps strategies are, if I’m right, lying. I suppose you could say he’s lying partially.. in the sense that he uses one small reason as the main reason for what he’s doing. Otoh if he’s right and trade is unfair and In order to straighten it out he can’t see another path forward…. That’s a more difficult question. I don’t see how anybody can confidently say anything wo considering what I’ve written here. I originally come back to cobf recently thinking the Canadians … or somebody.. being the smart analytical types that invest.. would have a competent analysis of the trade between the two countries and found the opposite. I haven’t had time to do it my self but I’ll try. Also, if the usa is going to produce some things here for strategic reasons, antifragilityreasons, then that means by definition we will be buying less of those things Elsewhere and that means elsewhere wont be happy about selling less stuff to us. If we can’t compete for ammo prices and we need to manufacture our own, we may need tariffs. 
 

Also don’t assume those of us who voted for him are cultists, you won’t learn anything that way. In 2016 my father voted for him, and hated doing so, being a lifelong Mormon, the cleanest sort, only because he knew the Supreme Court appointees were coming up. He has no idea what happening in general. 
 

for myself, doge and cutting the deficit to 3% of gdp was paramount and the rest noise and I saw the opposite inclination since forever on the other side. For me, if this happens and wars don’t get worse, I’m willing to deal with the fallout as I see it as existential. I voted for Obama Romney Hillary then trump trump. Other things matter but I rank order them low compared to a snowballing debt/interest rate/inflation problem. 
 

For me the biggest mistake of the last four years was allowing the economy to be shuttered excessively and raining money in massive excess. Biggest mistake I’m aware of in my lifetime. I said that here March 2020 more or less. Then Biden doubled  down when the coast was clear. Destroyed the lives of tens of Millions of non asset owners for 79 year olds with 2.5 co morbidities who were going to die shortly and whom we could have targeted for relief at 1/100th the cost. 
 

 

LOL this is a great post with a lot of thought and consideration, and like always, its probably either ignored or met with the TDS drenched 3-4 sentence rager...

[cwericb]

19 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

Trudeau is your idiot not ours. 

 

Why are you allowing him to negotiate on behalf of the Canadian people?

 

 

I will be blunt. Cubs you might want keep your comments to yourself until you understand how the Canadian government system works. I am NOT a Trudeau fan, but the majority of Canadians are just fine with how Trudeau has been handling this mess that your clueless leader has created. 

 

And by the way, are you are one of the areas that has their electricity supplied from Canada? Also this is just one small area that depends on Canadian electricity.

 

"Ontario Premier Doug Ford says he's willing to cut off power supply to the US if President Donald Trump continues with tariffs against Canada.

Ford announced his retaliatory plans shortly after Trump implemented a 25% tariff against Canadian imported goods and a 10% tariff on Canadian energy.

He said he would implement his own 25% surcharge on Canadian electricity exports to three US states: Michigan, New York and Minnesota."

[cubsfan]

6 minutes ago, cwericb said:

 

 

I will be blunt. Cubs you might want keep your comments to yourself until you understand how the Canadian government system works. I am NOT a Trudeau fan, but the majority of Canadians are just fine with how Trudeau has been handling this mess that your clueless leader has created. 

 

And by the way, are you are one of the areas that has their electricity supplied from Canada? Also this is just one small area that depends on Canadian electricity.

 

"Ontario Premier Doug Ford says he's willing to cut off power supply to the US if President Donald Trump continues with tariffs against Canada.

Ford announced his retaliatory plans shortly after Trump implemented a 25% tariff against Canadian imported goods and a 10% tariff on Canadian energy.

He said he would implement his own 25% surcharge on Canadian electricity exports to three US states: Michigan, New York and Minnesota."

 

Promises, promises.  Canada is led by the world's greatest loser. Not really the problem of the USA.

[cwericb]

14 minutes ago, flesh said:

I’ll try to translate trumpese for you. He knows that the total fentanyl crossings from Canada are minor. He wants them reduced. The primary reason he says this is so that he has a stronger reason to impose tariffs that will hold up and he believes that something about trade relations are unfair… smokescreens.  It could be subsidies to certain industries, existing tariffs, tariff like instruments that have the same or similar effect, restrictions, or any other form of distorting effect. Of course free trade with friendlies and maximizing comparative advantage is the ideal, the ideal is never what happens. 
 

I posted in another thread with no response but I’ve yet to see a thorough analysis of all distorting effects on trade between usa and Canada. I personally done know if it’s fair or close to it. If it is I’ll agree it is if it’s wholistic.  
 

Regarding whether or not trumps strategies are, if I’m right, lying. I suppose you could say he’s lying partially.. in the sense that he uses one small reason as the main reason for what he’s doing. Otoh if he’s right and trade is unfair and In order to straighten it out he can’t see another path forward…. That’s a more difficult question. I don’t see how anybody can confidently say anything wo considering what I’ve written here. I originally come back to cobf recently thinking the Canadians … or somebody.. being the smart analytical types that invest.. would have a competent analysis of the trade between the two countries and found the opposite. I haven’t had time to do it my self but I’ll try. Also, if the usa is going to produce some things here for strategic reasons, antifragilityreasons, then that means by definition we will be buying less of those things Elsewhere and that means elsewhere wont be happy about selling less stuff to us. If we can’t compete for ammo prices and we need to manufacture our own, we may need tariffs. 
 

Also don’t assume those of us who voted for him are cultists, you won’t learn anything that way. In 2016 my father voted for him, and hated doing so, being a lifelong Mormon, the cleanest sort, only because he knew the Supreme Court appointees were coming up. He has no idea what happening in general. 
 

for myself, doge and cutting the deficit to 3% of gdp was paramount and the rest noise and I saw the opposite inclination since forever on the other side. For me, if this happens and wars don’t get worse, I’m willing to deal with the fallout as I see it as existential. I voted for Obama Romney Hillary then trump trump. Other things matter but I rank order them low compared to a snowballing debt/interest rate/inflation problem. 
 

For me the biggest mistake of the last four years was allowing the economy to be shuttered excessively and raining money in massive excess. Biggest mistake I’m aware of in my lifetime. I said that here March 2020 more or less. Then Biden doubled  down when the coast was clear. Destroyed the lives of tens of Millions of non asset owners for 79 year olds with 2.5 co morbidities who were going to die shortly and whom we could have targeted for relief at 1/100th the cost. 
 

 

 

I quite understand what Trump is trying to do and, in all honestly, I don't totally disagree with what he is trying to accomplish. I do however, I completely disagree with HOW he is going about reaching his goals. You don't have to repeatedly lie to the people, you shouldn't have to concoct fake reasons for your actions you don't have to threaten your neighbours and friends. 

 

I could go on, but I think you get the jist of where I am going here.

[cwericb]

4 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

Promises, promises.  Canada is led by the world's greatest loser. Not really the problem of the USA.

 

Are you having trouble understanding what I said. Oh, I'm sorry is it getting dark there yet?