Political Posts

[Luke]

4 minutes ago, UK said:

 

You underestimate how deep and cheap we already have been, and I was a buyer also then!!!!

[Luke]

It's interesting how "unimpressed" Putin was about Western sanctions, etc, and focussed on China as the more important partner anyway based on economy size, manufacturing base, etc in the Interview with Tucker. I think also Russian Leadership sees the downfall in the EU with their current policies, lack of natural resources, climate targets that are only attainable with degrowth etc. They also see the bad manufacturing base in the US which makes it not as attractive of a partner as China. 

[Luke]

But they are totally dependent on China now! 

[UK]

21 minutes ago, Luke said:

You underestimate how deep and cheap we already have been, and I was a buyer also then!!!!

 

Why would you say this? I do not disagree with you or Tepper much and was just kidding:)

[Luke]

8 minutes ago, UK said:

Why would you say this? I do not disagree with you or Tepper much and was just kidding:)

I meant no offense  I can weather the storm!!  Cheers! 

Edited October 8, 2024 by Luke

[UK]

Just now, Luke said:

I meant no offense  I can weather the storm!!  Cheers! 

No offense taken:). I wish I also could post this epic gif of Spekuliatius about investing in China, featuring boar, but I can not find it:))

[Hektor]

Will the Chinese bazooka remain silent until Jerome turns dovish again?

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/07/business/china-stocks-csi-300.html

 

China’s Policy Reversal Sparks ‘Mind Boggling’ Stock Rally

The government has fired up investors by encouraging banks to lend more to buyers of stocks and real estate, but officials refrained on Tuesday from promising more stimulus.

 

Just a few weeks ago, many investors in China’s stock markets were ready to give up and eager to sell. Then late last month, traders rushed in to make bullish bets after the government’s leaders announced a series of steps to stimulate China’s faltering economy.

 

On Tuesday, following a weeklong national holiday, trading in mainland China resumed and investors picked up where they left off. The CSI 300, an index of large companies traded in Shanghai and Shenzhen, jumped almost 6 percent. It marked the tenth straight day of increases, soaring almost 35 percent during the period.

 

Before the holiday, the Chinese government had jolted stock markets sharply higher with a package of measures aimed at halting the cycle of falling real estate prices and weakening consumer confidence.

 

Several municipal governments soon followed by trimming or dismantling their restrictions on real estate purchases as a way to stabilize the housing market in their cities.

 

No new plans were announced at a news conference on Tuesday. Officials from the National Development and Reform Commission, China’s economic planning agency, instead provided more of a pep talk on the economy. 

[james22]

Why so desperate, you might ask?

 

Easy: China is panicked not only about a looming recession, but that it might be falling into the Japan-style doom-loop of structural stagnation thanks to President Xi’s anti-business jihad.

 

The key number here is the interest rate on 30-year government bonds, which is a classic indicator of a zombie economy in the spawning.

 

Ominously, China’s 30-year just fell blow Japan’s. Flirting with zombie territory.

 

https://www.profstonge.com/p/china-enters-the-economic-doom-loop

[backtothebeach]

Long live Xi! Doing all the right things to keep China's population safe from harmful ideas.  /s

---

China tells schoolteachers to hand in their passports
 

https://www.ft.com/content/2aa2170d-2e31-4066-9813-d1b760db3402

 

"Teachers who refused to hand in their passports or who travelled abroad without permission would be subject to “criticism and education” or referred to China’s anti-corruption authority, depending on the severity of their case, the notice said. Offenders would also be barred from travel for two to five years."

 

https://www.firstpost.com/explainers/why-china-is-asking-school-teachers-to-hand-in-their-passports-13822813.html

[Dalal.Holdings]

1 hour ago, backtothebeach said:

Long live Xi! Doing all the right things to keep China's population safe from harmful ideas.  /s

---

China tells schoolteachers to hand in their passports
 

https://www.ft.com/content/2aa2170d-2e31-4066-9813-d1b760db3402

 

"Teachers who refused to hand in their passports or who travelled abroad without permission would be subject to “criticism and education” or referred to China’s anti-corruption authority, depending on the severity of their case, the notice said. Offenders would also be barred from travel for two to five years."

 

https://www.firstpost.com/explainers/why-china-is-asking-school-teachers-to-hand-in-their-passports-13822813.html

 

I'm sure he will keep foreign investors' interests in mind

[Spekulatius]

This is not a new thing and has been around for a while now, mostly local governments and state owned companies asking for their employees passports for “safe keeping”. It does seems like this policy is  becoming more popular.

 

Note that this isn’t just affecting teachers.

 

Edited October 9, 2024 by Spekulatius

[WFF]

7 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

This is not a new thing and has been around for a while now, mostly local governments and state owned companies asking for their employees passports for “safe keeping”. It does seems like this policy is  becoming more popular.

 

Note that this isn’t just affecting teachers.

 

Know someone that works at a bank and had their passport kept for safekeeping.  It is actually not all that bad, he still travels and travels with his family.  
 

the annoying part he says is that he has to apply to get the passport back for his travel plans, so extra paperwork, but not a biggie in his opinion

[Sweet]

43 minutes ago, WFF said:

Know someone that works at a bank and had their passport kept for safekeeping.  It is actually not all that bad, he still travels and travels with his family.  
 

the annoying part he says is that he has to apply to get the passport back for his travel plans, so extra paperwork, but not a biggie in his opinion

 

Lol, not a biggie until it is a biggie.

 

It's a ludicrous thing to do.

[John Hjorth]

44 minutes ago, Sweet said:

 

Lol, not a biggie until it is a biggie.

 

It's a ludicrous thing to do.

 

Yes, it is de facto control over employees on a very personal level.

 

Here we have a paragraph in our bankruptcy law, that you have to ask the probate court  for permission to leave the country if you are subject to ongoing bankrupcy proceedings, but your passport is still in your own physical  control.

Edited October 9, 2024 by John Hjorth

[mattee2264]

I find it a bit disturbing how much both Chinese and US not to mention Japanese stock markets are moving in response to actual and expected policy announcements. 

 

Doesn't look like a sign of healthy economies. 

[crs223]

Can’t a country just digitally cancel your passport?  Why does it have to be physically collected?

[backtothebeach]

45 minutes ago, crs223 said:

Can’t a country just digitally cancel your passport?  Why does it have to be physically collected?

Plausibile deniability. "Oh no, there are no travel bans in China. We have rule of law!"

[james22]

I give you credit for betting your beliefs, Luke.

[Xerxes]

Good read.
As always from Byron Callab

 

[Dinar]

On 10/7/2024 at 5:46 PM, CGJB said:

Here's wishing a very happy birthday to Russian President Vladimir Putin, born 72 years ago today. By far the best leader Russia has had in more than a century. May he have many, many more.
------------------------

 

Too bad abortion was illegal in the USSR in the 1950s...

[UK]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-10/pboc-launches-71-billion-liquidity-tool-for-stock-investors

[Kizion]

3 hours ago, UK said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-10/pboc-launches-71-billion-liquidity-tool-for-stock-investors

 

It seems peanuts compared to the market cap of Chinese equities (hence, my expected impact is nihil) - or do I miss something? 

Edited October 10, 2024 by Kizion

[WFF]

1 hour ago, Kizion said:

 

It seems peanuts compared to the market cap of Chinese equities (hence, my expected impact is nihil) - or do I miss something? 

If it works as intended, it is the first of many 71B as prescribe in late September.  This is implementation, and help boost sentiment.  Stock crazed bug is in the air from people on the ground zero.

[UK]

1 hour ago, Kizion said:

 

It seems peanuts compared to the market cap of Chinese equities (hence, my expected impact is nihil) - or do I miss something? 

I think their goal is to send a message in the first place, rather than to acctualy buy large part of the market to backstop it. Sometimes strong words is enough, so far it is more than just words and if it is not enough, perhaps they can always opt for 'unlimited' version later:)

[John Hjorth]

On 9/26/2024 at 11:37 PM, John Hjorth said:

 

Good questions, Sanjeev [ @Parsad ],

 

I have spent a good deal of today to find some answers to some this, - to understand how the man is thinking and try to understand his world view. I recalled hearing a bite of interview some time ago with Samuel Rachlin, a Danish journalist and author of several books about Russia and Putin, here considerered an expert in Russian relations and affairs. Mr. Rachlin was born in Sibiria and lived there in the first nine years of his life, while his parents were deporteret thereto for 14 years, after which the family ended up in Denmark.

 

I found it on a streaming service called 'TV2 Play' provided by the Danish TV channel TV2, the streaming service avaiable to me, all services from TV2 are included in the TV package in my household. Mr. Rachlin mentions specifically a speech held by Vladimir Putin at MSC [Munich Security Conference], in 2007, where he is totally candid towards the participants about his intentions : The objective being a new world order. Actually stunned by hearing this I started to seach for that speech, and found :

 

Wikipedia : 2007 Munich speech of Vladimir Putin.

 

Link to the speech : kremlin.ru : President of Russia : Speech and the Following Discussion at the Munich Conference on Security Policy [February 10th 2007, Munich].

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Speech also attached here.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Let me just say that I today personally have been hit by a very frustrating feeling of being naive - very naive - earlier - before February 24^th 2022.

Speech and the Following Discussion at the Munich Conference on Security Policy - President of Russia 20070210 - 20240926.pdf 191.67 kB · 9 downloads

 

A few days ago I started reading :

 

Amazon : Samuel Rachlin : 'Jeg, Putin' [which translates, from Danish to English : 'I, Putin'], second edition.

 

First edition was written under 'the Russian Spring' first half 2014, when the Crimea situation evolved and escalated. Second edition is with a new foreword spring 2022 added. While reading the book I feel like getting dragged up of the soil I was planted in with my roots, to be replanted  in another set of values and criteirias by which to judge Putins motives, actions and doings in general, that are so far away from my personal set of values as a Western European.

 

Unfortunately, with this book, there is a language barrier, because the book is only available in Danish language.

Edited October 12, 2024 by John Hjorth