Political Posts

[John Hjorth]

NRK.no [The Norwegian Official TV Channel] : Troms and Finmark [September 28^th 2024] : The government considers a high border fence against Russia.

 

Subheader : 'Hardly anyone crosses the Norwegian-Russian border illegally, but now a high fence can still be erected. Must act as a deterrent', according to the Minister of Justice.

 

- - - o 0 o - - - 

 

Norway share a 1,340 km long border with Russia, up north of the polar circle. I'm not this sure this is well spent oil money. To me, it fails completely to hit the disc. A token of the times, - a considered action that is somewhat useless, not based on rationality, but sentiment.

[John Hjorth]

TV2.dk [August 8^th 2024] : Russia threatens Denmark with legal action.

 

This is related to the North Stream sabotage, and about the obligations of the Danish State to compliance and transparency requirements in  accordance with international conventions.

 

1997 - convention related to suppression of terror bombings, and

1999 - convention related to suppression of terror financing.

 

I would say, that Maria Zakharova, Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, has a good, solid case here.

 

Typical pragmatism from Danish Minister of Foreign Affairs Lars Løkke Rasmussen just to put a 'confidential' on the existing report already produced about this event, simply put, to burry it.

 

I would not complain by any mean Denmark loosing such case, honestly.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Edit :

 

TASS - Politics [March 20^th 2024] : Nord Stream gas leak investigation - Russia to continue demanding transparent probe into Nord Stream blast — Foreign Ministry

Edited September 29, 2024 by John Hjorth

[nsx5200]

On 9/27/2024 at 3:23 PM, Dalal.Holdings said:

2 Trillion Yuan is $300B. Comes out to about $200 per citizen. It's going to take a lot more to boost consumption and get China out of its funk.

PPP of Yuan is roughly 4/1, so $200 USD is ~$800 USD parity adjusted.  It's not nothing, but it's roughly 1/2 of a U.S. COVID stimulus check.  We saw how it boosted the lowest income group to get them to spend here in the U.S. (and China has a lot more lower income people, according to the Gini index).

 

These fussing over the details on pennies and nickels misses the more important point that the CCP(Chinese government) is finally starting to give more attention/weighting to the Chinese economy, which is more important.

 

The CCP's continuing acts of aggresion continues to be troubling, no doubt.

[crs223]

On 9/27/2024 at 11:40 AM, moneyball said:

Even in a world where China did such a thing, The US would have to make the decision to nuke the US economy. I’m reminded of Syria and Obama’s hard line in the sand…

 

I did not phrase it well.  My point was:  If an invasion in 2025 will trigger sanctions strong enough to destroy China, then the invasion will not happen in 2025.  China is in no hurry.

[UK]

6 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

TV2.dk [August 8^th 2024] : Russia threatens Denmark with legal action.

 

This is related to the North Stream sabotage, and about the obligations of the Danish State to compliance and transparency requirements in  accordance with international conventions.

 

1997 - convention related to suppression of terror bombings, and

1999 - convention related to suppression of terror financing.

 

I would say, that Maria Zakharova, Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, has a good, solid case here.

 

Typical pragmatism from Danish Minister of Foreign Affairs Lars Løkke Rasmussen just to put a 'confidential' on the existing report already produced about this event, simply put, to burry it.

 

I would not complain by any mean Denmark loosing such case, honestly.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Edit :

 

TASS - Politics [March 20^th 2024] : Nord Stream gas leak investigation - Russia to continue demanding transparent probe into Nord Stream blast — Foreign Ministry

 

Just shut down them out of these waters then: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/09/16/russia-oil-tankers-shadow-fleet-international-law-denmark-unclos/

 

Just kidding:), we have even worse situation (could well be a flashpoint) with their transit I think.

[UK]

 

[UK]

Elon Musk

The US did conspicuous acts of kindness like the Berlin Airlift. And I think it’s always like, well, America’s done bad things. Well, of course America’s done bad things, but one needs to look at the whole track record and just generally, one sort of test would be how do you treat your prisoners at war? Or let’s say, no offense to the Russians, but let’s say you’re in Germany, it’s 1945, you’ve got the Russian Army coming one side and you’ve got the French, British and American Army’s coming the other side, who would you like to be just surrendered to? No country is [inaudible 00:27:58] perfect, but I recommend being a POW with the Americans. That would be my choice very strongly.

Lex Fridman
(00:28:07) In the full menu of POWs in the US.
Elon Musk
(00:28:08) Very much so. And in fact, Wernher von Braun, a smart guy, was like, “We’ve got to be captured by the Americans.” And in fact, the SS was under orders to execute von Braun and all of the German rocket conditioners, and they narrowly escaped. They said they were going out for a walk in the woods. They left in the middle of winter with no coats and then ran, but no food, no coats, no water, and just ran like hell and ran West and Vice Sherlock, I think his brother found a bicycle or something and then just cycled West as fast as he couldn’t have found a US patrol. So anyway, that’s one way you can tell morality is where do you want to be a PW? It’s not fun anywhere, but some places are much worse than others. Anyway, so America has been, while far from perfect, generally a benevolent force, and we should always be self-critical and we try to be better, but anyone with half a brain knows that.

 

Edited September 30, 2024 by UK

[John Hjorth]

8 hours ago, UK said:

Elon Musk

The US did conspicuous acts of kindness like the Berlin Airlift. And I think it’s always like, well, America’s done bad things. Well, of course America’s done bad things, but one needs to look at the whole track record and just generally, one sort of test would be how do you treat your prisoners at war? Or let’s say, no offense to the Russians, but let’s say you’re in Germany, it’s 1945, you’ve got the Russian Army coming one side and you’ve got the French, British and American Army’s coming the other side, who would you like to be just surrendered to? No country is [inaudible 00:27:58] perfect, but I recommend being a POW with the Americans. That would be my choice very strongly.

Lex Fridman
(00:28:07) In the full menu of POWs in the US.
Elon Musk
(00:28:08) Very much so. And in fact, Wernher von Braun, a smart guy, was like, “We’ve got to be captured by the Americans.” And in fact, the SS was under orders to execute von Braun and all of the German rocket conditioners, and they narrowly escaped. They said they were going out for a walk in the woods. They left in the middle of winter with no coats and then ran, but no food, no coats, no water, and just ran like hell and ran West and Vice Sherlock, I think his brother found a bicycle or something and then just cycled West as fast as he couldn’t have found a US patrol. So anyway, that’s one way you can tell morality is where do you want to be a PW? It’s not fun anywhere, but some places are much worse than others. Anyway, so America has been, while far from perfect, generally a benevolent force, and we should always be self-critical and we try to be better, but anyone with half a brain knows that.

 

 

It's a good one, @UK!,

 

It makes me recall the below from Danish history :

 

Det Danske Kongelige Bibliotek [The Danish Royal Library]  : The final liberation of of Bornholm.

 

Also : Wikipedia : Landing at Bornholm.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

My late Dad was originally a native of Bornholm [called a Bornholmer, caracterized by their very special  and unmistakable dialect, as it has more similarity to Swedish langauge than Danish language]. In the years 2012 - 2016 I had long conversations with him, where I interviewed him about all in his life that I haven't been a part of or experienced.

 

Several times I approached this event and his recollection of it, which he by every time simply refused to talk about and  turned his face away from me, staying totally silent, while I was aware that he by then was living as young man at the middle of the island, not on the coast, and not in Rønne, nor Nexø.

 

That was for sure food for thought.

Edited September 30, 2024 by John Hjorth

[Hektor]

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/30/business/china-property-mortgages.html

 

China Removes Curbs on Home Buyers, Sparking Stock Market Surge

[UK]

4 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

 

It's a good one, @UK!,

 

It makes me recall the below from Danish history :

 

Det Danske Kongelige Bibliotek [The Danish Royal Library]  : The final liberation of of Bornholm.

 

Also : Wikipedia : Landing at Bornholm.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

My late Dad was originally a native of Bornholm [called a Bornholmer, caracterized by their very special  and unmistakable dialect, as it has more similarity to Swedish langauge than Danish language]. In the years 2012 - 2016 I had long conversations with him, where I interviewed him about all in his life that I haven't been a part of or experienced.

 

Several times I approached this event and his recollection of it, which he by every time simply refused to talk about and  turned his face away from me, staying totally silent, while I was aware that he by then was living as young man at the middle of the island, not on the coast, and not in Rønne, nor Nexø.

 

That was for sure food for thought.

 

Thanks for sharing John. 

[Hektor]

And the fall out from the China rally

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-30/quant-hedge-funds-face-more-margin-calls-as-chinese-stocks-surge

 

Quant Hedge Funds Face More Margin Calls as Chinese Stocks Surge

China’s biggest stock market rally in more than a decade has added pressure on funds that short index futures.

[Paarslaars]

12 minutes ago, Hektor said:

And the fall out from the China rally

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-30/quant-hedge-funds-face-more-margin-calls-as-chinese-stocks-surge

 

Quant Hedge Funds Face More Margin Calls as Chinese Stocks Surge

China’s biggest stock market rally in more than a decade has added pressure on funds that short index futures.

Ah that explains the BTC drop.

[Green King]

I think that risk is gone. From recent action, most of that news is posturing. If there was a war the entire world economy would be destroyed. 

[hillfronter83]

Many signs are pointing to an epic pump and dump organized by the government. Why do they think it's a good idea is beyond me.

[Hektor]

https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-housing-glut-population-economy-09cffa6a

 

China’s Housing Glut Collides With Its Shrinking Population

Many cities are stuck with empty homes that they will likely never fill, adding to the country’s economic woes

[UK]

https://www.ft.com/content/2bb20587-9680-40f0-ac2d-5e7312486c75

 

Multiple European diplomats who attended last week’s UN General Assembly in New York say there was a tangible shift in the tone and content of discussions around a potential settlement. They note more openness from Ukrainian officials to discuss the potential for agreeing a ceasefire even while Russian troops remain on their territory, and more frank discussions among western officials about the urgency for a deal.

...

Ukrainian public opinion also appears to be more open to peace talks — but not necessarily to the concessions they may require. Polling by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology for the National Democratic Institute in the summer showed that 57 per cent of respondents thought Ukraine should engage in peace negotiations with Russia, up from 33 per cent a year earlier.

...

If Ukrainians have warmed to the idea of negotiations, a majority — 55 per cent according to a KIIS polling in May — remain opposed to any formal cession of territory as part of a peace deal. “People want peace but they are also against territorial concessions. It is hard to reconcile them,” says Merezhko, the chair of the foreign affairs committee. However, the KIIS survey shows the share of respondents opposed to any territorial concessions has dropped sharply from a peak of 87 per cent early last year. It also found that Ukrainians might be open to a compromise whereby, in return for Ukrainian membership of Nato, Russian maintains de facto control over occupied parts of Ukraine, but not recognised sovereignty.

...

As the KIIS polling shows, making any deal acceptable that allows Russia to stay in the parts of Ukraine it has seized since its first invasion in 2014 will hinge on obtaining meaningful western security guarantees, which for Kyiv means Nato membership. “The most important thing for us is security guarantees. Proper ones. Otherwise it won’t end the war; it will just trigger another one,” says a Ukrainian official. “Land for [Nato] membership is the only game in town, everyone knows it,” says one senior western official. “Nobody will say it out loud . . . but it’s the only strategy on the table.”

 

[John Hjorth]

Thanks for pointing to this, for information, @UK,

 

The media coverage of this has here been very poor,  under all criticism.

 

It's important. I have and nurse my personal biases on what the solution to this conclict should be, while the truth is, that the involved people in this conflict should decide for them selves where to belong for the future, to stop the hooman madness - the meaningless losses of so many lives of primarily young Ukrainian and Russian people.

Edited October 1, 2024 by John Hjorth

[Spekulatius]

I think the west can get a Ukraine to agree with territorial concessions in exchange for NATO membership and a shot to get in the EU.

The problem will be if that works for Russia as well, because their fear of NATO expansion was supposedly what led to them attacking Ukraine.

 

I think the likely scenario is a ceasefire rather than a peace deal. Russia may think they can prevent NATO membership just be keeping a low level conflict alive indefinitely , which they sort of have done since 2014.

 

At some point, the west needs to make some gutsy decision to get solve this problem.

Edited October 1, 2024 by Spekulatius

[UK]

On 9/30/2024 at 6:40 AM, UK said:

Elon Musk

The US did conspicuous acts of kindness like the Berlin Airlift. And I think it’s always like, well, America’s done bad things. Well, of course America’s done bad things, but one needs to look at the whole track record and just generally, one sort of test would be how do you treat your prisoners at war? Or let’s say, no offense to the Russians, but let’s say you’re in Germany, it’s 1945, you’ve got the Russian Army coming one side and you’ve got the French, British and American Army’s coming the other side, who would you like to be just surrendered to? No country is [inaudible 00:27:58] perfect, but I recommend being a POW with the Americans. That would be my choice very strongly.

Lex Fridman
(00:28:07) In the full menu of POWs in the US.
Elon Musk
(00:28:08) Very much so. And in fact, Wernher von Braun, a smart guy, was like, “We’ve got to be captured by the Americans.” And in fact, the SS was under orders to execute von Braun and all of the German rocket conditioners, and they narrowly escaped. They said they were going out for a walk in the woods. They left in the middle of winter with no coats and then ran, but no food, no coats, no water, and just ran like hell and ran West and Vice Sherlock, I think his brother found a bicycle or something and then just cycled West as fast as he couldn’t have found a US patrol. So anyway, that’s one way you can tell morality is where do you want to be a PW? It’s not fun anywhere, but some places are much worse than others. Anyway, so America has been, while far from perfect, generally a benevolent force, and we should always be self-critical and we try to be better, but anyone with half a brain knows that.

 

 

And the sad confirmation: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-investigating-alleged-shooting-16-pows-by-russia-2024-10-01/

[UK]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-01/dalio-says-china-s-leaders-face-whatever-it-takes-moment

[John Hjorth]

11 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

I think the west can get a Ukraine to agree with territorial concessions in exchange for NATO membership and a shot to get in the EU.

The problem will be if that works for Russia as well, because their fear of NATO expansion was supposedly what led to them attacking Ukraine.

 

I think the likely scenario is a ceasefire rather than a peace deal. Russia may think they can prevent NATO membership just be keeping a low level conflict alive indefinitely , which they sort of have done since 2014.

 

At some point, the west needs to make some gutsy decision to get solve this problem.

 

I personally think this is an accurate description of the actual situation.

 

Frustrating to think about.

 

Then add to that, Vladimir Putin can't be relied on or trusted in any way or in any matter, this signature on something meaning sh!t - nothing :

 

.

[Hektor]

Barron's continues to be down on China

 

https://www.barrons.com/articles/china-hot-jack-ma-alibaba-a1d688b9

 

China Is Looking Like a Hot Investment Again. Look Before You Leap In.

Investors should stay wary of China until its leadership establishes a record as a reliable counterparty—which could take decades. 

 

China is a great investment—if you don’t look at the past too closely.

 

Just forget about Jack Ma, the founder of Alibaba Group Holding , and ignore the concerns voiced over the past decade that no one has made money investing in China. Instead, focus on recent dramatic market pops, like Monday’s 8.5% rally, which the pundits celebrated as the biggest daily move since 2008.

 

If you ignore the inconvenient facts, buying stocks and bullish call options and selling put options on China themes is attractive because China’s leaders will likely keep stimulating the economy.

 

If only it were that easy.

 

[Milu]

Congrats to all the china bulls, looks like you are finally getting a bit of positive momentum after a long period of pain. China has always been in the too hard pile for me, I don't live there, don't use any the services of any of the big name stocks (alibaba, JD, PDD), and don't know much about the leaders of these companies which makes it too hard for me to be comfortable owning them, and that lack of comfort would likely cause me to lose faith if they started dropping again. I just stick to what I know well which are mainly large US and Western European companies. Perhaps I will miss out on some of the big gains you guys will receive should China go into a new boom period but that's ok.

[cubsfan]

15 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

I think the west can get a Ukraine to agree with territorial concessions in exchange for NATO membership and a shot to get in the EU.

The problem will be if that works for Russia as well, because their fear of NATO expansion was supposedly what led to them attacking Ukraine.

 

I think the likely scenario is a ceasefire rather than a peace deal. Russia may think they can prevent NATO membership just be keeping a low level conflict alive indefinitely , which they sort of have done since 2014.

 

At some point, the west needs to make some gutsy decision to get solve this problem.

 

I think Putin is going to have to go back to Russians and tell them this was about stopping NATO.

He's holding most of the cards now. He will get to keep Crimea & Donbas, and no NATO membership for Ukraine. That will be a big win for him to get out of this mess sacrificing so many Russians.

 

Meanwhile, Zelensky will get to say he valiantly and bravely saved Ukraine. And get armed to the teeth by the West to reinforce his DMZ.

 

The Russians can outlast everyone unfortunately.

[John Hjorth]

4 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

... He will get to keep Crimea & Donbas, and no NATO membership for Ukraine. ...

 

Mike [ @cubsfan ],

 

The people of Crimea &  Donbas aren't live stock, available for trade, or available as leverage.

 

Please think about what the United States of America has in its backpack in that regard.

 

[And now I'll stop with this argument.]