Political Posts

[NoCalledStrikes]

Thanks Xerxes. In WW2, my dad was transported to his assignment from San Francisco to New Guinea on the Attu, an escort class carrier.  I had never heard of such small aircraft carriers prior to reading his papers.  Apparently, they were used primarily for transporting aircraft and supplies as well as sailors.  

 

According to Wikipedia, the Attu launched in May 1944, commissioned in June 1944, decommissioned in June 1946, and sold for scrapping in January 1947.  

Edited October 22, 2023 by NoCalledStrikes

[UK]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-23/china-rattles-foreign-firms-again-with-arrests-foxconn-probe?srnd=premium-europe&leadSource=uverify wall

 

Chinese authorities are again shaking the confidence of foreign companies in the country with a series of arrests and an investigation into Foxconn Technology Group, Apple Inc.’s most important partner and one of the largest employers in China. Over the weekend, state media said that regulators are conducting tax audits and reviewing land use by Foxconn, the Taiwanese company that makes the vast majority of iPhones at factories in China. Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., Foxconn’s public arm, said it will collaborate with authorities. Meanwhile, an executive and two former employees of WPP Plc, one of the world’s biggest advertising companies, have been arrested in China, people familiar with the matter said.

[Xerxes]

4 hours ago, NoCalledStrikes said:

Thanks Xerxes. In WW2, my dad was transported to his assignment from San Francisco to New Guinea on the Attu, an escort class carrier.  I had never heard of such small aircraft carriers prior to reading his papers.  Apparently, they were used primarily for transporting aircraft and supplies as well as sailors.  

 

According to Wikipedia, the Attu launched in May 1944, commissioned in June 1944, decommissioned in June 1946, and sold for scrapping in January 1947.  

Cheers !

U.S.S Attu much like most of those +70 escort carriers that survived were literally un-made few years after being commissioned. Think of all that supply glut of metal hitting the market post-WW2. 
 

J. Powell would have been right if he was serving in the late 40s !! The inflation was “transitory”

 

Interestingly, there was one escort carrier (the only one ever) that was shelled and sank by a battleship. From the history books. 
 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Gambier_Bay

—-

 

Funny enough it was ultimately NOT the Japanese that dawned the age of aircraft carrier nor the Americans who perfected it.
 

It was actually the British who used aircraft carriers against the Italian naval assets sitting in their port in the Mediterranean in 1940 and scored. Not many folks took notice except for Yamamoto. 
 

Fast forward to today, we see a proliferation of drones. I think if we look back while we might see Ukraine as the east European theatre that really pushed the envelope on unmanned drones and put it on our TV screen, it was I think truly discovered during the 2020 Azerbaijani-Armenian war, with the former decimating the enemy and rewriting military handbooks  as it went. But there was no Yamamoto watching that conflict. 
 

Russia did not notice nor did Ukraine, at that moment. Russia was blinded by its gigantic legacy military-industrial complex and all its vested interest and all of its inertia. And Ukraine was not thinking the unthinkable yet.

 

 

 

 

Edited October 23, 2023 by Xerxes

[Spekulatius]

9 hours ago, Xerxes said:

Fast forward to today, we see a proliferation of drones. I think if we look back while we might see Ukraine as the east European theatre that really pushed the envelope on unmanned drones and put it on our TV screen, it was I think truly discovered during the 2020 Azerbaijani-Armenian war

Yes the Azerbajiani/ Armenian conflict showed the impact of drones for the first time and I think since then, drone countermeasure and small drone development has really picked up. Ukraine has showed it much more, since it is a much larger conflict and very much the center of attention unlike the A-A conflict.

 

From what we know China is also very strong in small drone development and they have a large industrial base of a consumer drone industry to draw from.

Edited October 23, 2023 by Spekulatius

[Xerxes]

3 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Yes the Azerbajiani/ Armenian conflict showed the impact of drones for the first time and I think since then, drone countermeasure and small drone development has really picked up. Ukraine has showed it much more, since it is a much larger conflict and very much the center of attention unlike the A-A conflict.

 

From what we know China is also very strong in small drone development and they have a large industrial base of a consumer drone industry to draw from.

But it is not just capacity and tech capability. It is needs to be part of their (I.e. PLA) military doctrine.
 

And be sure that you will have an incumbent military industrial complex that will be protecting its “turf” and tell you that “no no. You got this all wrong. The future war will be like this … “

 

often times, desperation will be source of military innovation. And again I don’t mean the technology in of itself, rather how it is used.  
 

To my knowledge PLA has not fought in any wars since the mid-80s. They updated their peasant army’ military doctrine with some “Powell” update in the early 90s. That is about it. No real conflict 

[formthirteen]

 

 

[UK]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-24/finland-recovers-ship-anchor-at-baltic-pipeline-damage-site?srnd=premium-europe&leadSource=uverify wall

[Luke]

Highly interesting!

Edited October 25, 2023 by Luca

[Parsad]

60 Minutes had a terrific story on the threats from China...unprecedented attempts to steal data, intellectual property, technology, etc.  The Five Eyes actually opened up to bring awareness to what is happening.  Cheers!

 

https://www.cbsnews.com/video/60minutes-2023-10-22/

[UK]

https://www.wsj.com/video/series/shelby-holliday/how-chinese-aggression-has-pushed-the-philippines-closer-to-the-us/15A5C436-F3FD-4929-A048-0A9DBE5E32B0

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-26/biden-warns-china-not-to-attack-philippine-ships-after-incidents?srnd=premium-europe&leadSource=uverify wall

 

“I want to be very clear: The United States’ defense commitment to the Philippines is ironclad,” he said. “Any attack on the Filipino aircraft, vessels, or armed forces will invoke our Mutual Defense Treaty with the Philippines.”

 

Edited October 26, 2023 by UK

[Spekulatius]

If you think you have a bad day, watch this:

 

[shhughes1116]

On 10/22/2023 at 6:14 PM, Xerxes said:

pre-1941:

6 aircraft carriers (Wasp, Hornet, Enterprise, Lexington, Saratoga + Yorktown).

three were based in the Pacific and three were based in the Atlantic. I know their names by heart, but slowly forget how they met their end. 

USS Lexington would be Coral Sea, and USS Yorktown would be Midway. The rest I remember no longer.

 

by 1945, there ~30 Essex-class, ~25 Independence-class + 70+ escort carriers

Don’t forget the USS Ranger.

[ValueArb]

10 minutes ago, shhughes1116 said:

Don’t forget the USS Ranger.

 

It's crazy that such tiny carrier at 15,000 tons could carry as many planes as the Lexington and a crew of over 2,000.

[shhughes1116]

24 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

 

It's crazy that such tiny carrier at 15,000 tons could carry as many planes as the Lexington and a crew of over 2,000.

The Lexington and Saratoga keels were started as battlexruisers and then converted to carriers so their layout was not conducive for a large air wing.  The Ranger was intentionly built as a carrier - the first purpose built carrier for the US - so it had the right layout for a larger air wing.  The British had the same issue with the Courageous class - originally laid down as battlexruisers so the layout was’t conducive for a large air wing.  

[Xerxes]

20 hours ago, shhughes1116 said:

Don’t forget the USS Ranger.

I am/was not familiar with that name. Not sure why it was not part of the famed “six” that I had back of my mind. 
 

[changegonnacome]

https://www.thefp.com/p/israel-and-america-have-no-choice-but-to-act

 

Interesting read - its really a time for American diplomacy and coalition building to be at the top of its game.....the world has become a much more complicated place

[ValueArb]

5 hours ago, Xerxes said:

I am/was not familiar with that name. Not sure why it was not part of the famed “six” that I had back of my mind. 
 

 

Same myself, apparently because the famous aircraft carrier battles were in the Pacific. I was surprised to find out she was at Casablanca, and attacked shipping in Norwegian waters. Never knew.

[Xerxes]

15 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

 

Same myself, apparently because the famous aircraft carrier battles were in the Pacific. I was surprised to find out she was at Casablanca, and attacked shipping in Norwegian waters. Never knew.

Either that, or Chuck Norris was the captain of USS Ranger. And he refused to fight easy enemies. 

[formthirteen]

Quote

 

In the darker scenario, China faces “Japanification”—a shrinking workforce, lost decades of growth. It might avoid that with quick, decisive policy changes, but Cai Xia, who was a professor at the élite Central Party School until she broke ranks and moved abroad, in 2020, told me that mid-level administrators have grown paralyzed by fears of a misstep. “Officials are ‘lying flat,’ ” she said. “If there is no instruction from the top, there will be no action from the bottom.” It is equally unlikely that change will be inspired from abroad. A Chinese diplomat recently told me that the government was annoyed by Westerners preaching reform. “We will stick to our plan,” he said. “The Chinese are stubborn,” he added, smiling tightly. “Principles are more important than tangible benefits.”

The economist Xu Chenggang told me that he regards the Party’s current leaders as political “fundamentalists” who are blind to the risks of doctrinal rigidity. Xu won China’s top economics prize in 2013, and four years later left his post at Tsinghua University, where a climate of ideological stricture has set in. He is now a researcher at Stanford.

During the boom years, China made rapid gains in technology using foreign investment and training, as well as rules that required “technology transfer.” But the U.S. has narrowed those channels: new export controls cut off China’s access to advanced chips, and Biden issued an executive order that bars investors from funding Chinese development of A.I. In response, Xi has repeatedly declared China’s ambition to achieve “self-reliance and strength in science and technology.” Xu is skeptical. “In the U.S., you have a jungle of free competition, dozens of laboratories competing—no one knows what is going to work,” he said. “But the Communist regime will not allow for this. That’s the key issue.” The Chinese government sank billions of dollars into two failed efforts to build foundries for advanced chips; Chinese chatbots have struggled to compete with ChatGPT, because the Party imposed rules requiring them to uphold “socialist core values.” (If you ask ErnieBot, a Chinese version of ChatGPT, whether Xi Jinping is pragmatic, it replies, “Try a different question.”)

 

 

Quote

Xi has always spoken more bluntly in private. In a speech behind closed doors, shortly after he came to power, he uttered what remains the clearest statement of his vision. “Why did the Soviet Communist Party collapse?” he asked, according to excerpts that circulated among Party members. One reason, he said, was that the Soviets’ “ideals and beliefs had wavered.” More important, though, “they didn’t have the tools of dictatorship.” With dogged efficiency, Xi has set out to strengthen belief in the Party and to build the tools of dictatorship. He has succeeded more in the latter than in the former. These days, the most prevalent belief in China is that anyone—from the truest believer to the canniest tycoon—can disappear. This fall, there was fresh evidence: yet another powerful general, the defense minister, Li Shangfu, never arrived at a meeting he was scheduled to attend.

 

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/10/30/chinas-age-of-malaise

Edited October 30, 2023 by formthirteen

[RichardGibbons]

5 hours ago, formthirteen said:

(If you ask ErnieBot, a Chinese version of ChatGPT, whether Xi Jinping is pragmatic, it replies, “Try a different question.”)

 

This is actually quite a pragmatic response. So at least we know ErnieBot is pragmatic, even if Xi isn't....

[John Hjorth]

Tass News Agency Press Release [October 30^th 2023] : Nothing can justify bombardments of civilians in <fill in the blanks your self> — Putin.

 

Isen't this person just something very special and truly outstanding - here, hardly holding back tears.

[Dinar]

2 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

Tass News Agency Press Release [October 30^th 2023] : Nothing can justify bombardments of civilians in <fill in the blanks your self> — Putin.

 

Isen't this person just something very special and truly outstanding - here, hardly holding back tears.

What a humanitarian!  Is he talking about Russian bombardment of Ukraine?

[Spekulatius]

36 minutes ago, Dinar said:

What a humanitarian!  Is he talking about Russian bombardment of Ukraine?

He is jealous of Israel's special operation and the fact that they are actually hitting their targets.

[formthirteen]

3 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

Isen't this person just something very special and truly outstanding - here, hardly holding back tears.

 

 

We just have to ”unplug the bananas” from our ears to hear what he's really saying.

 

Spoiler

 

Edited October 31, 2023 by formthirteen

[changegonnacome]

Havent been following the situation in Ukraine closely for the last couple of months.

 

As we head for winter in Europe - what is the general take on the Ukrainian counter-offensive.....broadly it seems clear there has been very very little territorial advancement around recapturing lands that Russia has annexed.

 

Article below however talks about a more subtle take which is underlying strategic victoires that bode well for the future:

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/20/ukraine-crimea-black-sea-counteroffensive-russia-fleet-navy-drones-war/

 

My only quibble with the above article which makes me think things arent going quite so well is when the author leans on the victories against the black sea fleet as signs of Ukraine's progress.......this is not a naval war.....its very much a land war.....Ukraine can do what it wishes to the black sea fleet it will have little to no bearing on taking back the Donbas for example.