Political Posts

[Castanza]

40 minutes ago, lnofeisone said:

Demonstration of force. Also, some of the US Citizens were kidnapped by HAMAS.

So we bring an entire carrier fleet? I guess maybe, we do it in South Sea.
 

We have CAG and DEVGRU for hostage rescue though.  

[Xerxes]

Not only US, but Canadian citizens were kidnapped (and killed) as well by Hamas. That said we also have US and Canadian citizens (probably) that are in Gaza at the receiving end of freedom-fireworks. 

I don’t see anything in particular about the US aircraft carrier battle group. Right or wrong, it is in line with US historical alignment with Israel. 
 

Fareed Z. had two great podcasts one on CNN and one on Prof G. I highly recommend folks to listen to those. 
 

To me it is becoming more and more clear how Natan-yahoo and his government in their bid to split the Palestinians and expand settlement in the West Bank, have been following a policy of upholding Hamas while marginalizing the ruling PA (Palestinian Authority) in the West Bank. Hamas has been an asset of some sort (for lack of better word), showcasing PA impotence and undermining its leadership. The final piece would have been the Saudi peace treaty. In short, he has tried to tame and use a serpent as leverage, instead he got bitten. 

https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-prof-g-pod-with-scott-galloway/id1498802610?i=1000631061670

 

 

https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/fareed-zakaria-gps/id377785090?i=1000631380057

Edited October 17, 2023 by Xerxes

[Castanza]

3 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

don’t see anything in particular about the US aircraft carrier battle group. Right or wrong, it is in line with US historical alignment with Israel. 

Probably right, easy to speculate on this stuff. 
 

In general the situation is just very complex. It’s not often there are truly right or wrong sides in war. Everyone has a reason and talks their own book. 
 

Ok sorry back to Ukraine Russia. Don’t want to derail the solid discussion that’s occurred here. Plus I don’t think Parsad wants another Israel/Palestine thread squabble which is fine. 

[Xerxes]

4 minutes ago, Castanza said:

Probably right, easy to speculate on this stuff. 
 

In general the situation is just very complex. It’s not often there are truly right or wrong sides in war. Everyone has a reason and talks their own book. 
 

Ok sorry back to Ukraine Russia. Don’t want to derail the solid discussion that’s occurred here. Plus I don’t think Parsad wants another Israel/Palestine thread squabble which is fine. 

Agreed. 
They are ALL full of it. 
 

Moving on ….
 

Putin was recently holding court in a televised 3 hr discussion (incidentally and unrelated in it he said, he likes Canadians*). In it, he made it clear how nukes are off table as the State is not threaten etc etc. however he is opening door for atomic tests. Not a direct quote. 

* I liked that part 
 

In parallel, there are talks (growing talks) about using Russian central bank reserve that are in the West to finance Ukraine rebuilt, such act was previously considered as sacrosanct. 
 

To me it seems to be we are in holding pattern waiting for the next “step change” in terms of which Rubicon being crossed, and how to answer. 
 

 

[changegonnacome]

16 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

To me it is becoming more and more clear how Natan-yahoo and his government in their bid to split the Palestinians and expand settlement in the West Bank

 

My sense now too - he is a war time leader for now....but once a moments breath can be had by the Israeli people i expect them to throw him out of power.....not only for the fact that Israeli intelligence seemed completely blind to this attack (which would be enough to warrant his resignation) but also because dividing a nation against itself when your surrounded by real enemies & threats is the lowest form & most cynical political calculation a nation's leader can engage in. 

[UK]

13 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

@Pelagic Looks like put the ATACMS to good use. Manufacturing date 10/1996 so 26 year old. I guess we are putting our old stock to good use. The only thing missing is  "Leroy was here" face. Love to see it.

 

 

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-decision-send-long-range-missiles-kyiv-grave-mistake-russias-envoy-2023-10-18/

[Spekulatius]

6 hours ago, UK said:

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-decision-send-long-range-missiles-kyiv-grave-mistake-russias-envoy-2023-10-18/

That's a great sign that the Ruzzians call it a grave mistake - shows that it hurts.

 

People want a bit more range these days:

 

 

[Castanza]

If you haven’t been following this Twitter account for Ukraine Russia you should. 
 

@OSINTtechnical

 

edit: @Xerxes @Spekulatius changes it so it reflects just the resource Should note that there are a lot of terrible OSINT accounts. There are a few good verified ones. Bellingercat is another good one. 

Edited October 18, 2023 by Castanza

[Xerxes]

I thought we were stopping discussions on ME.
 

In any case, the OSIntel Twitter guy seem to be good reference to follow.

 

Too bad he wasn’t around in 2003. Collin Powell could have used a second set of eyes.
 

also don’t know how dedicated he is in continuity and not selective participation on what he feels like covering (personal biases). Not sure if he did any work on gas pipeline “incident” in the Baltics … or the aftermath of “Russian” missile hitting Poland. 

 

[Spekulatius]

32 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

I thought we were stopping discussions on ME.
 

In any case, the OSIntel Twitter guy seem to be good reference to follow.

 

Too bad he wasn’t around in 2003. Collin Powell could have used a second set of eyes.
 

also don’t know how dedicated he is in continuity and not selective participation on what he feels like covering (personal biases). Not sure if he did any work on gas pipeline “incident” in the Baltics … or the aftermath of “Russian” missile hitting Poland. 

 

yes, we should stop the ME discussion here (deleted my post). there are a few good "Osint" accounts - this is another one I follow:

 

https://twitter.com/UKikaski

Edited October 18, 2023 by Spekulatius

[ValueArb]

On 10/17/2023 at 10:32 AM, Xerxes said:

Yeap. FIFO it is

 

 

Doesn't this mean that sending Ukraine ATACMS is actually saving the US money? I mean these had to be close to the age of disposal, which isn't cheap. Sending them to Ukraine got them disposed of for free;)

[UK]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-20/latvia-says-nato-should-close-baltic-if-russia-harmed-pipeline?srnd=premium-europe&leadSource=uverify wall

 

NATO should consider a halt to Russian shipping in the Baltic Sea if evidence emerges that the Kremlin is behind the damage to a pipeline connecting Finland and Estonia, Latvia’s president said. “The discussion should be about how we can close the Baltic Sea in order to protect our critical infrastructure” if Russia is found to be responsible, President Edgars Rinkevics told Latvia’s public broadcaster late Thursday. His office later clarified that the comments pertained to Russian shipping. President Vladimir Putin has denied that the Kremlin was involved in the pipeline rupture to the Balticconnector gas pipeline, which was discovered earlier this month. North Atlantic Treaty Organization this week dispatched mine hunters, patrol aircraft and early warning planes to the Baltic Sea to safeguard underwater infrastructure. NATO has the ability to stop shipping in the Baltic, Rinkevics said.

[Spekulatius]

This is nuts. Video shows a Russian attack in Avdiivka. Cluster bomb ammo is used here by Ukrainians. When it works, it really works:

 

Edited October 20, 2023 by Spekulatius

[shhughes1116]

On 10/17/2023 at 5:16 PM, Castanza said:

Anyone else confused by the US carrier presence in the Mediterranean ? We don’t have a defense treaty with Israel… also where tf is the congressional approval here? Oh wait… 

 

Wonder if the US is thinking about engaging Russian troops in Syria? Putin also very confused why US is moving into the Mediterranean. I don’t think we would engage with Iran or Lebanon (been there done that)at this point. Damascus and Aleppo airports were recently taken out. 

 
I can think of two reasons for moving a carrier group or two into the vicinity.  
 

First, the Israeli Air Force is flying a pretty high tempo operation right now.  If things get hairy with Hezbollah in the North, I think they will be overwhelmed.  Cue up the carrier air wing.

 

second, if things get hairy with Syria or Iran, Israeli air strikes will necessitate electronic warfare support.  each air wing embarks with ~6 Growlers that fill this role.  Easier to operate these off the coast where they can maximize time airborne given the short legs of a Growler.

 

the carrier group provides options in case things go south.  And if we decide that Putin deserves a punch in the face, easy enough to do that in Syria with his “these soldiers that speak Russian and carry Russian guns aren’t really Russians” mercenary group. 

[shhughes1116]

On 10/19/2023 at 3:29 PM, ValueArb said:

 

Doesn't this mean that sending Ukraine ATACMS is actually saving the US money? I mean these had to be close to the age of disposal, which isn't cheap. Sending them to Ukraine got them disposed of for free;)

We produced about 2400 M39 ATACMS, and used about 600 across the various gulf wars and war in Afghanistan.  Some were converted to unitary warheads. The remainder are past their “expiration date” and can not be used because of our policy against using cluster munitions.  I’ll bet there are >1,000 of these left, maybe 2/3 with the shorter range. Disposal is expensive, unless you shove it down an Orc’s throat - that is gratis. 
 

I struggle to understand why we did not give these to Ukraine last year.  They don’t fit into the fighting doctrine that would be employed in a war with China.  Giving them to Ukraine earlier this year would have wrecked Russia’s ability to deploy their KA-52s as a CAS firefighting brigade.  

[cubsfan]

12 hours ago, shhughes1116 said:
 

I struggle to understand why we did not give these to Ukraine last year.  They don’t fit into the fighting doctrine that would be employed in a war with China.  Giving them to Ukraine earlier this year would have wrecked Russia’s ability to deploy their KA-52s as a CAS firefighting brigade.  

Such is the piecemeal approach of Biden’s foreign policy. Wait until things blow sky high until you do something. There is no strategy and has never been. Just look at the appeasement of Hamas.

[Spekulatius]

I am guessing we really need to give Ukraine airplanes such that they can gain at least local air superiority to win this. The current stalemate situation on the ground makes offensives difficult, so we basically have a WW1 like situation. This situation advantaging the defender  was broken in WW2 with tanks and motorized infantry but also combined warfare with air support. The later part is lacking the Ukraine forces and it shows.

 

Then we need to figure out to make more “stuff” when needed. Now everything is produces in planned lots but we have no flexibility to make more, if we run out of something. Thats hard to solve with the complexity of defense hardware, but we need to figure out a way to do it.

 

We can’t just find ourself in a situation where we lose a bunch of fighter plans and then it takes 2 years to replace them. Thats a sure fire way to lose a war, because let’s face it unless a war is totally asymmetrical , a war tends to be a drawn out affair (years, not weeks) and stuff happens that you can plan for or predict and we need to be prepared for that. I think the plan to invested $50B in the industrial base of the defense industry is targets just for that.

[RichardGibbons]

That makes me wonder if the best thing for the world would be the Ukrainian war lasting for a decade.  Horrible for Ukraine, but if nations began to believe that any war is likely to last many years, consuming many lives and resources, I think there would be fewer wars.

[Sweet]

8 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

I am guessing we really need to give Ukraine airplanes such that they can gain at least local air superiority to win this. The current stalemate situation on the ground makes offensives difficult, so we basically have a WW1 like situation. This situation advantaging the defender  was broken in WW2 with tanks and motorized infantry but also combined warfare with air support. The later part is lacking the Ukraine forces and it shows.

 

Then we need to figure out to make more “stuff” when needed. Now everything is produces in planned lots but we have no flexibility to make more, if we run out of something. Thats hard to solve with the complexity of defense hardware, but we need to figure out a way to do it.

 

We can’t just find ourself in a situation where we lose a bunch of fighter plans and then it takes 2 years to replace them. Thats a sure fire way to lose a war, because let’s face it unless a war is totally asymmetrical , a war tends to be a drawn out affair (years, not weeks) and stuff happens that you can plan for or predict and we need to be prepared for that. I think the plan to invested $50B in the industrial base of the defense industry is targets just for that.

To quote a US general on this, referring to US equipment being the best in the world, but Chinese are building their kit rapidly - “quantity is a quality of its own”.

 

Having advanced technology is important but you also need the ability to pump out military equipment at a vast rate.  Even if is lower technology, quantity is important.

 

Edited October 22, 2023 by Sweet

[UK]

5 hours ago, RichardGibbons said:

That makes me wonder if the best thing for the world would be the Ukrainian war lasting for a decade.  Horrible for Ukraine, but if nations began to believe that any war is likely to last many years, consuming many lives and resources, I think there would be fewer wars.

 

Honestly, I sometimes think I have no idea even for what scenario to wish, not to mention, that I have not idea of what to expect from all this in the end. Sure all of this could be still very early. I know for sure I feel sickened of all sufferings of Ukrainian people though. Also, living some 100+ miles from Minsk, I definitely do not like possibilities and talks, such as this: 

 

"Vladimir Putin, Mr. Biden noted, views the Baltic countries in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization as rogue Russian provinces. He won’t stop at Ukraine."

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-speaks-but-will-he-act-61fe471c

 

But intuitively (and maybe wrongly), I think response should be much more forceful (especially from Europe) and quick. Big mistakes were already made and good opportunities lost by dragging this out or not preparing even now much more for the future.

[Spekulatius]

4 hours ago, Sweet said:

To quote a US general on this, referring to US equipment being the best in the world, but Chinese are building their kit rapidly - “quantity is a quality of its own”.

 

Having advanced technology is important but you also need the ability to pump out military equipment at a vast rate.  Even if is lower technology, quantity is important.

 

Definitely true. In 1943, the production of war material from the allied did exceed the Axis production by 10:1 in many cases. For example at the beginning of the war, it took 3 years to build an aircraft carrier in the US and field it and in 1942 it was down to 12 month. The US build 17 carriers during WW2 while the Japan build 6.

 

I read that the Russian army in 1943 (with help from Land Lease and the HS) would field 10x more tanks than the German:

 

The stats below are mind boggling - 300,000 airplanes build, 86,000 tanks in WW2. Sure, the hardware is much more complex now, but somehow, we need back to getting the ability to ramp production again. If you assume that at some point China is become if an military adversary , well I am sure they could ramp to build a lot of ships and airplanes in relatively short order nd potentially could outgun the US.

 

The ones who actually do that well are the Koreans. They sort of have been able to produce tanks, artillery pieces and even ships  with relatively short lead times. They basically have sort of an assembly line approach to this, while  in the US the stuff is produced in very small serial runs.

 

The large defense contractors themselves want asset light during the roast few decades and have little real production capacity and rely on a network on contractors that do the stuff for them, while they develop the stuff, manage the supply chain and assembly and test the components. This has shown very fragile during COVID even without additional demand from any wartime engagement.

 

https://www.pbs.org/kenburns/the-war/war-production

Edited October 22, 2023 by Spekulatius

[John Hjorth]

KAL's cartoon October 21^st 2023 :

 

 

 

[UK]

Meanwhile: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-17/hungary-calls-bulgaria-levy-on-russia-gas-transit-hostile-step-lnuhxqok#xj4y7vzkg

 

[ValueArb]

8 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Definitely true. In 1943, the production of war material from the allied did exceed the Axis production by 10:1 in many cases. For example at the beginning of the war, it took 3 years to build an aircraft carrier in the US and field it and in 1942 it was down to 12 month. The US build 17 carriers during WW2 while the Japan build 6.

 

I read that the Russian army in 1943 (with help from Land Lease and the HS) would field 10x more tanks than the German:

 

The stats below are mind boggling - 300,000 airplanes build, 86,000 tanks in WW2. Sure, the hardware is much more complex now, but somehow, we need back to getting the ability to ramp production again. If you assume that at some point China is become if an military adversary , well I am sure they could ramp to build a lot of ships and airplanes in relatively short order nd potentially could outgun the US.

 

The ones who actually do that well are the Koreans. They sort of have been able to produce tanks, artillery pieces and even ships  with relatively short lead times. They basically have sort of an assembly line approach to this, while  in the US the stuff is produced in very small serial runs.

 

The large defense contractors themselves want asset light during the roast few decades and have little real production capacity and rely on a network on contractors that do the stuff for them, while they develop the stuff, manage the supply chain and assembly and test the components. This has shown very fragile during COVID even without additional demand from any wartime engagement.

 

https://www.pbs.org/kenburns/the-war/war-production

The US actually built 117 carriers during WW2 vs Japan 19 carriers if you include “jeep” carriers.

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aircraft_carrier_operations_during_World_War_II

[Xerxes]

pre-1941:

6 aircraft carriers (Wasp, Hornet, Enterprise, Lexington, Saratoga + Yorktown).

three were based in the Pacific and three were based in the Atlantic. I know their names by heart, but slowly forget how they met their end. 

USS Lexington would be Coral Sea, and USS Yorktown would be Midway. The rest I remember no longer.

 

by 1945, there ~30 Essex-class, ~25 Independence-class + 70+ escort carriers