Political Posts

[sleepydragon]

Imo, China is a fine country. A lot of smart want to make money and had achieved a lot. Unfortunately at this moment some of the dumbest people are running the country. 

[Luke]

Just now, sleepydragon said:

Imo, China is a fine country. A lot of smart want to make money and had achieved a lot. Unfortunately at this moment some of the dumbest people are running the country. 

I think they will have to face reality sooner or later, as they had with COVID.

[crs223]

3 hours ago, sleepydragon said:

Imo, China is a fine country. A lot of smart want to make money and had achieved a lot. Unfortunately at this moment some of the dumbest people are running the country. 

 

 

That could be said for any country, state, county, city, or even company.

[Sweet]

8 hours ago, Luca said:

1. Europe must reduce its dependency on the United States and avoid getting dragged into a confrontation between China and the U.S. over Taiwan, French President Emmanuel Macron said in an interview on his plane back from a three-day state visit to China.

 

2. He said “the great risk” Europe faces is that it “gets caught up in crises that are not ours, which prevents it from building its strategic autonomy,” while flying from Beijing to Guangzhou, in southern China, aboard COTAM Unité, France’s Air Force One.

 

3. Macron also argued that Europe had increased its dependency on the U.S. for weapons and energy and must now focus on boosting European defense industries. He also suggested Europe should reduce its dependence on the “extraterritoriality of the U.S. dollar,” a key policy objective of both Moscow and Beijing. “If the tensions between the two superpowers heat up … we won’t have the time nor the resources to finance our strategic autonomy and we will become vassals,” he said. Russia, China, Iran and other countries have been hit by U.S. sanctions in recent years that are based on denying access to the dominant dollar-denominated global financial system. Some in Europe have complained about “weaponization” of the dollar by Washington, which forces European companies to give up business and cut ties with third countries or face crippling secondary sanctions.

 

I agree with Macron that Europe needs to be more self dependent.  I also agree that not all the US problems are Europe’s.

 

I completely disagree that America and it’s Pacific partners should just let face China alone, it’s disrespectful and ungrateful given all the US has done for Western Europe.

 

Worse, it increases the likelihood of war with China because it shows a divided West.  I wonder if Macron thinks that the US should have stayed neutral during World War I, World War II, the Cold War, and more recently the Ukraine war.

 

He should learn from history, who your friends are, and the importance of having each others back on global challenges.

 

Edited May 20, 2023 by Sweet

[Luke]

1 hour ago, Sweet said:

 

However I completely disagree that America and it’s Pacific partners should just let face China alone, it’s disrespectful and ungrateful given all the US has done for Western Europe.

I think that depends, and macron sees it similarly IMO, about which conflicts we are talking about. If US politicians or the government engages in talk that provokes and increases tension, engages in economic war, we as europe shouldnt allow someone to force our hand. Why are the netherlands stopped from delivering semiconductor machines? For very arbitrary reasons? Why is the US blocking dutch business? If there is a serious conflict that is based, highly likely europe will come and support but we shouldnt HAVE to rely on the US. Strategic autonomy goes both ways, not only versus China. 

1 hour ago, Sweet said:

Even worse it increases the likelihood of war with China because it shows a divided West.  I wonder if Macron would agree that the US should have stayed neutral during World War I, World War II, the Cold War, and more recently the Ukraine war.

 

He should learn from history.

Depending on the definition of war, its already a war but not a military one yet. I dont think macrons moves are increasing the likelyhood of the war, circling China into a corner and threatening them increases the likelihood of further escalation. 

 

“Europeans cannot resolve the crisis in Ukraine; how can we credibly say on Taiwan, ‘watch out, if you do something wrong we will be there’? If you really want to increase tensions that’s the way to do it,” he said. 

 

IMO the US intervened into too many things where they should not have. A world war obviously was a necessary intervention and i doubt that any western country would sit still if China goes on Raid like the Germans did. 

[zippy1]

9 hours ago, Luca said:

Since China had one of the most severe lockdown policies and came out of lockdowns the latest of all countries i dont find the results unexpected. Look at US unemployement in young people during lockdowns: 

 

The April number that came out a few days ago is also greater than 20%, months after the reopening. 
not sure whether this April number can just be attributed to the COVID policy. 
CCP appears to be making the case for the youth to go to the "countryside."  If youth unemployment is just caused by its COVID policy, I wonder why this is necessary.   
CCP probably is doing so knowing something that most don't know.
https://www.dw.com/zh/德语媒体新时代的上山下乡运动/a-65661636

Edited May 20, 2023 by zippy1

[Spooky]

22 hours ago, crs223 said:

Unfathomable that non-american-behavior could succeed, yet here we are.  Each decade china getting stronger while US scratches its head.

 

I'm not saying that China can't succeed - their economy will likely continue to expand and society get wealthier (hopefully). My point is that this could still happen but the shareholders won't be the ones reaping the rewards.

[adesigar]

https://fortune.com/2023/05/18/china-belt-road-loans-pakistan-sri-lanka-africa-collapse-economic-instability/amp/
 

Don’t know what those countries expected.

[Spekulatius]

23 minutes ago, adesigar said:

https://fortune.com/2023/05/18/china-belt-road-loans-pakistan-sri-lanka-africa-collapse-economic-instability/amp/
 

Don’t know what those countries expected.

The Chinese as debtors seem to be very hard to deal with. In cases where both the IMF and the Chinese are debtors the Chinese don’t pool and try to cut favorable side deals for themselves on the back of IMF easing debt terms. It’s clear that the belt and road initiate is another one of  Xi Jinpings failures and seem to amount to little more than neo colonism.

[crs223]

15 hours ago, adesigar said:

https://fortune.com/2023/05/18/china-belt-road-loans-pakistan-sri-lanka-africa-collapse-economic-instability/amp/
 

Don’t know what those countries expected.

 

That was an excellent article, thank you for sharing.  Might be the best news article i’ve ever read — packed with information — i never knew how all this worked.

 

Sounds like China sent a message to all their banks: make loans to these countries.  Now that the loans are going bad, the banks don’t want to, and perhaps cannot stand to, take losses.  Perhaps the CCP will help with a bailout… or perhaps BABA-style just order the banks to pay up.  Also interesting how this plays into the international community with the secret “first in line” manipulations.

 

Wow… are all fortune articles like this?

[John Hjorth]

It appears in media here in Europe that the city of Bakmuth has fallen for Ukraine and is now under control by Russian forces by yesterday.

 

I have been thinking about : "What does that mean?" The city in fact does not exist any more - it is about it's roughly totally destructed by now. [Mike [ @cubsfan ] has been posting about this fact for a long time now in this topic.]

 

What does is matter? I don't know.

 

Does any of it makes some kind of sense? I'm not sure, but I personally have a hard time to see some purpose/meaning in much related to this armed conflict by now. Add to that, it's just plain butt ugly.

 

What's next? I have no idea, but if someone asked I would suggest "It's teatime", like when Asterix was fighting the British.

 

Talks about creating a list containing damages done Russia to Ukraine, for the purpose of Russia to pay damages at a later moment. "The destruction of the city of Bakmuth" added to list - Check!" - Price? It's just so lame to me. When this is over later, Russia will not be able to pay anything to the Ukraine rebuild for a long time, because it has its own internal challenges. The bill will by necessity have to be picked up by Ukraine allies, meaning migher taxes for them.

[cubsfan]

6 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

It appears in media here in Europe that the city of Bakmuth has fallen for Ukraine and is now under control by Russian forces by yesterday.

 

I have been thinking about : "What does that mean?" The city in fact does not exist any more - it is about it's roughly totally destructed by now. [Mike [ @cubsfan ] has been posting about this fact for a long time now in this topic.]

 

What does is matter? I don't know.

 

Does any of it makes some kind of sense? I'm not sure, but I personally have a hard time to see some purpose/meaning in much related to this armed conflict by now. Add to that, it's just plain butt ugly.

 

What's next? I have no idea, but if someone asked I would suggest "It's teatime", like when Asterix was fighting the British.

 

Talks about creating a list containing damages done Russia to Ukraine, for the purpose of Russia to pay damages at a later moment. "The destruction of the city of Bakmuth" added to list - Check!" - Price? It's just so lame to me. When this is over later, Russia will not be able to pay anything to the Ukraine rebuild for a long time, because it has its own internal challenges. The bill will by necessity have to be picked up by Ukraine allies, meaning migher taxes for them.

Yeah, terrible news. Seems the first victory in a while for Russia.

 

I’d be surprised if Russia ever rebuilds anything in Ukraine. I think Chechnya is pretty much a wasteland. Not sure about Georgia? If Ukraine is able to remove the Russians for good, the costs of rebuilding the country are going to be astronomical.

 

 

Edited May 21, 2023 by cubsfan

[Spekulatius]

Bakmuth has little strategic value, so the fact that is has fallen doesn’t really mean much. Wagner wanted this as a trophy to show that are capable to do something, the terrible cost in term of losses notwithstanding,  while the rest of the Russia army hasn’t been able to do any offensive whatsoever. The war will be decided elsewhere.

[Spekulatius]

I had a conversation with a fellow who manages people for an US company in the semi space. They have dramatically reduced their business there and let people go and moved operations to the Philippines.

 

He said one thing - there are a lot of underemployed people in tech in China, especially younger ones and in tech/engineering. When you read some articles, the unemployment rate is almost 20% there. He think there is a lot discontent with the CCP party and Xi Jinping there amongst the younger generation that might at some point bubble up and cause unrest. He thinks it’s just a matter of time.

[Xerxes]

No matter who “wins” Bakhmut, it will be a Pyrrhic victory. And Pyrrhic victories are what they are. A tax on the whole system. Everyone looses except for merchants of death. 

[crs223]

3 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

I had a conversation with a fellow who manages people for an US company in the semi space. They have dramatically reduced their business there and let people go and moved operations to the Philippines.

 

He said one thing - there are a lot of underemployed people in tech in China, especially younger ones and in tech/engineering. When you read some articles, the unemployment rate is almost 20% there. He think there is a lot discontent with the CCP party and Xi Jinping there amongst the younger generation that might at some point bubble up and cause unrest. He thinks it’s just a matter of time.

 

question i would ask your friend: “what mistake would these unemployed attribute to CCP?  Punishing BABA and shareholders?  COVID lockdowns? losing american customers?”

 

I would ask that to get a sense of what the CCP  might improve to stave off more protests.

[Spekulatius]

I have no idea who they blame but the problem is that those technical people (think EE's, software engineers) can't find decent jobs in China. There is a lot of underemployment and it seems that the 20% unemployed/underemployed number for young graduates starting out is about correct. No common prosperity for these folks, I guess.

 

My friends assumption is that there is a lot of unrest in the younger generation, but he does not know how it will manifest itself.

[Castanza]

11 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

moved operations to the Philippines

 

We have seen this in our company as well. But instead of the Philippines, Cyberjaya Malaysia. 

[Luke]

 So they diversify away from China because of which reasons? Possible tensions/regulations? @Castanza

Edited May 22, 2023 by Luca

[Castanza]

27 minutes ago, Luca said:

 So they diversify away from China because of which reasons? Possible tensions/regulations? @Castanza

 

Well that discussion takes place well above my paygrade. But I do know post China taking over Hong Kong we have moved out pretty much most of our support. Coincidence? Maybe. In general, Malaysia and Chile have been growing tech sectors the last few years as they fit the bill for "follow the sun" support, offer cheaper labor, have good connectivity, and a growing talent pool. 

 

Maybe the question to ask is: Why are companies not moving IT, development, engineering etc. to China if they have such a large available talent pool? The reality of the risk (CCP to business) might not matter; but instead the perception of that risk by businesses. 

[Luke]

48 minutes ago, Castanza said:

 

Well that discussion takes place well above my paygrade. But I do know post China taking over Hong Kong we have moved out pretty much most of our support. Coincidence? Maybe. In general, Malaysia and Chile have been growing tech sectors the last few years as they fit the bill for "follow the sun" support, offer cheaper labor, have good connectivity, and a growing talent pool. 

 

Maybe the question to ask is: Why are companies not moving IT, development, engineering etc. to China if they have such a large available talent pool? The reality of the risk (CCP to business) might not matter; but instead the perception of that risk by businesses. 

Very good points

[Luke]

https://www.nationalgeographic.co.uk/history-and-civilisation/2023/03/chinas-population-is-shrinking-it-faces-a-perilous-future

 

 And how will Beijing encourage births after suppressing them for more than three and a half decades? “This is an unprecedented, historical decline,” says Wang Feng, a sociologist at the University of California, Irvine. “By the end of the century, China will be quite unrecognisable in terms of what we know about China’s history and position in the world.”

 

This time, the drop has been triggered not by famine, war, or catastrophe but by rapid social and economic changes, the rising costs of getting married and raising children, and the restrictive one-child policy. As if to mark the moment, China’s centuries-long reign as the world’s most populous nation will come to an end this year, with India surging past it into the top position.

 

The brutal mathematics threatened to squeeze Ding out of the marriage market. When he proposed to his first girlfriend, her parents balked because he couldn’t afford a new house. Ding’s parents scrounged for loans to buy a car and renovate an apartment in a nearby city—for the sole purpose of attracting a wife. The bride-price, a dowry paid to the wife’s family, would cost roughly $29,000 (£23,000). Even meeting a prospect’s parents can run $2,500 (£2,033). Over the years, a matchmaker was able to coax only a handful of women to go on blind dates with Ding. Humiliated by his failure, Ding began avoiding family gatherings. “They were unbearable,” he says. His relatives fixated on one topic: his lamentable status as a “bare branch,” the Chinese expression for a man who adds no fruit to the family tree.

 

Xi Jinping, has vowed to “improve the population development strategy” and “establish a policy system to boost birth rates.” Dealing with a demographic implosion will require more than another bout of social engineering. In China it could even force a reckoning on such thorny issues as gender equality, immigration, eldercare, and the limits of high technology. “No country has ever solved this problem,” says Yong Cai, a demographer at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. “This is a new chapter yet to be written for the human race.”

 

Shasha Yu’s parents, both farmers, cursed her for being a girl. “I never should have given birth to you,” she says her mother told her. Yu’s only happy memory from growing up in rural Shandong Province was the time she fell off a horse cart and woke up in the hospital to find her mother gently fanning her. So rare was that moment of tenderness, she says, “I was reluctant to open my eyes.”

 

Moving to Shanghai, she joined one of the fastest urbanisations in human history. (Sixty-five percent of Chinese now live in cities, up from 20 percent in 1980.) She split up with her boyfriend, rented and renovated an apartment, and began living on her own. The idea of marriage and children no longer seemed inevitable but rather a potential barrier to freedom and success. “I look at my parents’ and friends’ marriages,” Yu says dryly, “and I see nothing to envy.”

 

Shasha Yu and Ding Qingzi are on opposite ends of China’s socioeconomic spectrum. Together, though, they help reveal why China’s marriage and birth rates have tumbled to their lowest levels in decades. In 2021 China registered 7.6 million marriages, a 43 percent drop from its 2013 peak—and the eighth consecutive year of decline. The change is driven partly by the gender imbalance and soaring marriage costs that thwarted Ding. But social scientists say it also reflects China’s fast-rising levels of education, wealth, and urbanisation—along with, as in Yu’s case, the assertion of women’s rights and autonomy. 

 

In late 2021 China’s Communist Youth League conducted a survey of 18- to 26-year-olds and found that 44 percent of women and 25 percent of men were unsure if they would marry. The percentages were highest for young women who, like Yu, live in China’s most modern cities. So disconcerting were the numbers to China’s leaders that the youth league has taken on the role of Cupid, staging ice-breakers and “love train” journeys to help single comrades find a spouse.

 

In 2021, just weeks after new census figures revealed another steep drop in the birth rate, Beijing unveiled a new approach. “The Three-Child Policy Is Here!” trumpeted a state-media headline. “Would You Like to Give Birth?” An online poll conducted by the state-run Xinhua news service did not bode well. Of the first 30,500 respondents, 28,000 reportedly said they would “never consider” having three children. The poll quickly disappeared from the website, but the scepticism that greeted the patriotic campaign could no longer be hidden. “If people can’t afford one or two children,” asks demographer Xiujian Peng of Australia’s Victoria University, “how could they afford to have three?”

 

Still, the couple have weighed the pros and cons. Spiralling costs are one obstacle in a competitive environment where parents feel pressure to spend lavishly on their children. An estimate from 2019 put the average price tag for raising a child at £61,000, seven times China’s GDP per capita. In Shanghai the cost was twice that. The expense doesn’t trouble Cai as much as the investment of time and energy—and the invasion of privacy. “I can’t adapt to a living space with an extra person,” she says.

[Luke]

 

[Luke]

The hardest task will be to raise the birth rate. Making China “a fertility-friendly society,” as the state-run Global Times puts it, would be a long-term solution. Local governments have been pushing new incentives for the three-child policy: tax cuts, housing subsidies, longer maternity leave, expanded childcare services, even, in some provinces, cash bonuses. So far, none of it seems to have worked. The birth rate fell further last year as the pandemic and economic downturn made planning for the future more fraught. Conditioned by the one-child policy—and confronted by ever rising costs—families seem unwilling to have more than one child, if they want any at all. “The financial pressure is too big,” says Dong, the retiree taking care of her granddaughter. “To raise one child well is enough.”

 

Absolutely brutal treatment of Ding and Shasha...:

 

 

When they met, Ding—normally shy and taciturn—found himself conversing easily. His date was open and kind, he says, and she seemed honest. It didn’t take him long to ask her to “settle down.” “I made up my mind that this was going to be my last blind date,” he says. “If it didn’t work out this time, I’d drop the marriage issue.” The woman felt rushed, but her family figured it would be hard for a divorced mother to find a reliable man. And besides, Ding’s family had gone into debt to pay the full bride-price.

When the couple got married last year, Ding says he couldn’t stop thinking, I finally have this big life thing figured out! The introvert made a long speech at the reception, and his parents, he says, “cried their eyes out.” Since then, Ding’s life has been transformed. He has gained weight, and he has started attending family gatherings again, now accompanied by his wife and stepdaughter. And he is proud he will no longer be a bare branch subject to gossip and ridicule: Ding and his wife are preparing to have a child of their own—a tiny heartbeat of hope in a land of missing children.

 

 

Edited May 23, 2023 by Luca

[Luke]

What stands out to me that the more a society becomes industrial and highly technologized, birth rates take a deep dive down below replacement levels. I wrote in the birth rate thread as well that i think that specialization of Jobs and more and more investments necessary for children to be successful create this trend and that is very interesting to me. The mega city economies are not an environment for small scale families/communities. What also surprises me is that there is just no interest in kids for some women. A trend towards individual unfolding, more freedom, time for oneself, more consumption, traveling etc. 

Edited May 23, 2023 by Luca