Political Posts

[Spekulatius]

I do wonder or the latest drone attacks of Ukraine into Russia are a test for the Ukrainians to Fosbury out how to use lots of cheap ish drones similar to the Iranian Shahed drone used by Russians. The Russians don’t seem to me able  to shoot them down, since they even reach Moscow.

 

When they are able to mass produce and deploy these drones there soon could be little fires everywhere -   refineries, railroad stations, fuel storage, pipelines, power stations and transmission, government buildings, industrial facilities, bridges. Could be interesting.

[Spekulatius]

Peter Zeihan Uber bearish on China as usual

Demographics, poor geostrategic location , Leadership with personality cult etc.

 

I don’t  think he quite gets the advantage China has in manufacturing stuff. Mexicos population is not too skilled to take on Chinese manufacturing . They may have different skilled but what China is doing manufacturing electronics like Apples iPhone and many other things is very very complex. It’s not just many workers, these workers are very very skilled at what they are doing and it’s hard to automize (fine motor skills, complexity , tight tolerances. You just can’t hire the same sort of workers anywhere but perhaps in Vietnam or Indonesia (which has Chinese population as well).

 

Anyways, worth listening to, but you need to take some of Zeihans statements with a grain of salt. I do think he gets the broad picture right , after all he is a big picture guy.

[Luke]

5 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Peter Zeihan Uber bearish on China as usual

Demographics, poor geostrategic location , Leadership with personality cult etc.

 

I don’t  think he quite gets the advantage China has in manufacturing stuff. Mexicos population is not too skilled to take on Chinese manufacturing . They may have different skilled but what China is doing manufacturing electronics like Apples iPhone and many other things is very very complex. It’s not just many workers, these workers are very very skilled at what they are doing and it’s hard to automize (fine motor skills, complexity , tight tolerances. You just can’t hire the same sort of workers anywhere but perhaps in Vietnam or Indonesia (which has Chinese population as well).

 

Anyways, worth listening to, but you need to take some of Zeihans statements with a grain of salt. I do think he gets the broad picture right , after all he is a big picture guy.

China is THE hot topic for the media:

 

 

[Luke]

It triggers people, creates clicks, often its biased or one sided. Hard to find good information, also due to huge language differences. 

[Luke]

Regarding Patent theft, something that comes up often also here on the board: 

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-26/china-is-after-intellectual-property-not-always-illegally/10302424

 

 

 

'The US Government does the same thing'

 

But Professor Greg Austin from UNSW Canberra Cyber said the evidence that information was applied in the marketplace for commercial gain was "very thin".

"The ASPI report puts almost no evidence in the public domain of a significant case where the Chinese Government has stolen commercial information since 2015 and put that to the advantage of a Chinese private sector corporation."

 

For example, he noted, the United States Steel Corporation and Westinghouse, two companies named in the US indictments, have not in fact suffered any commercial disadvantage.

 

"So the picture is not really what ASPI and others are painting — one of decreasing competitive advantage of Western corporations because of what's happening. That's not the reality."

 

Professor Austin described industrial espionage as just a normal part of international relations — practiced by China, but also by the United States, France and Israel.

 

"If you look at the CIA organisational chart, you'll see that two of its four intelligence directorates are involved in scientific, technical and economic espionage," he said.

 

"I'm confident that the Chinese Government continues to engage in intellectual property espionage; I'm confident that the United States Government does the same thing."

 

 

"The bigger policy issue that the US Government put on the agenda in a special report in March this year … was the Chinese policy of pressuring foreign corporations investing in China to hand over their intellectual property … under Chinese law," he said.

 

But Professor Austin said the Australian Government would be better off putting its policy effort into protecting companies from coercion by China, rather than focusing on "the hardly proven cases of cyber espionage for commercial gain".

[Xerxes]

Higher interest rate means de-valuing of “red lines” !  I maintain that the lack of incremental conventional capability to nuclear capability meant, meant lots of empty red-lines and shows a messaging from Kremlin with no in-depth strategic thinking. Words can be powerful, if used strategically. 

 

 “Russia has devalued its red lines so many times by saying certain things would be unacceptable and then doing nothing when they happen,”

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/01/ukraine-f-16s-biden-russia-escalation/

[Spekulatius]

Unruly they are:

Shops plundered around Belgorod, I am guessing they try to take advantage of the chaos caused by the Ukraine raids there.

[Castanza]

On 5/31/2023 at 11:04 PM, Spekulatius said:

I do wonder or the latest drone attacks of Ukraine into Russia are a test for the Ukrainians to Fosbury out how to use lots of cheap ish drones similar to the Iranian Shahed drone used by Russians. The Russians don’t seem to me able  to shoot them down, since they even reach Moscow.

 

When they are able to mass produce and deploy these drones there soon could be little fires everywhere -   refineries, railroad stations, fuel storage, pipelines, power stations and transmission, government buildings, industrial facilities, bridges. Could be interesting.

 

Good way to start some uprisings among the Russian citizens. Could open the door for some internal attacks against their own govt. 

[Xerxes]

It baffles me why Ukraine did not sent special forces weeks ago to secure the dam. Instead all of the little skirmishes into proper Russia. At least try.  
 

by not doing anything about it, they abdicated the decision making process to the Kremlin, who upset now the chessboard. 

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, Xerxes said:

It baffles me why Ukraine did not sent special forces weeks ago to secure the dam. Instead all of the little skirmishes into proper Russia. At least try.  
 

by not doing anything about it, they abdicated the decision making process to the Kremlin, who upset now the chessboard. 

The damn was damaged 6month ago by a large exposition. Ukraine could sent special operations there, but unless they control the south bank of the river too, they can’t prevent the Russian from destroying the dam.

 

Besides, the destruction may just be from LT damage  from that explosion 6 month ago and may not even be caused by a Russian demolition team. Besides that, I seriously doubt that Ukraine want to start their offensive with a difficult river crossing , the offensive likely will be upstream from that dam.

[changegonnacome]

Recent lecture from Mearsheimar - he definitely says things that are non-consensus…..and certainly not what the BBC, CNN or Fox likes to hear from the usual ‘experts’.

 

I listen to Mearsheimar because his opinions are so unpopular for a western audience to hear……that you’ve got admire but more importantly listen to a guy who in the middle of Zelensky beatification on western tv and social media channels  turns around and says he’s a jackass to poke the Russian bear instead of doubling down on the Minsk agreement and making concessions around the Donbas.
 

With Ukraine in ruins and likely to get even more ruined over time….Minsk had alternative route in it….having some Ukrainian but Russian speaking majority Oblasts in Eastern Ukraine in a kind of joint administration/ power sharing zone with Russia….relative to what we have now….it would have been a blue sky alternative reality. 

 

 

Edited June 7, 2023 by changegonnacome

[changegonnacome]

Saw this interview on Sunday with Jake Sullivan - it jumped out at me then and I went back to re-watch it now and it's as I remembered it.

 

6 minutes 40 secs in you get to the meat of it........you hear a US administration turning its attention away from Ukraine and towards the 2024 presidential campaign..........if your Ukrainian listening to this, the subtext is clear........you've been backed to hilt to date and you've got one more push with the US's unadulterated support.....make it good one, make it count cause its the last.....in late 2023 support will be backing off and we'll be suggesting intensified diplomatic engagement with Russia........i.e. make the counter-offensive good so you've something to barter at the negotiating table.......cause Jake Sullivan and the Biden crew wants this conflict out of the headlines & out of the congressional budget heading into 2024.

 

Its kind of naive in some respects to think the US could get out of this boondoggle this early.....the reality is the USA has got itself involved in what’s very likely to be a multi-year if not decade long conflict….that SUCCESSIVE presidential administrations will curse  ..........but Jake Sullivan’s word soup is music to Russia's ears.......like all its foreign conflicts in far flung places America is a tourist in the region & a fair weather friend.....it thinks in weeks and months.......Russia isn't going anywhere, it cant, its stuck there in the region damned by geography....it thinks in years,decades and centuries.......it will forever and always be neighboring Ukraine & it will always have deeply ingrained stake in its Western borders where East truly meets 'the West'.... nothing except Belarus and Ukraines neutrality at a minimum is acceptable to them  ..for the folks that think that Ukraine, with the Wests help, can 'beat' Russia who do you think exactly has the greater resolve here? Russia or the US led West? Especially now that the conflict has descended into a World War One-esque war of attrition? Skin in the game and resolve win wars like this…. Not quickly….but in the end…. just ask the Taliban.

 

Russia and Ukraine have equal resolve in this matter and equal skin in the game….The only issue is Russia’s war effort is, in the main, being sustained by Russia itself with its own captive war machine…it’s economy isn’t in great shape but at least it has an economy as compared to Ukraine….Ukraine’s war effort & very economy is being sustained by foreign aid payments and its war machine isn’t in its control….it’s artillery & weapons capability is outsourced to the West and based on their success in lobbying other nations to send/gift them the equipment they desperately need. One nation  in this bilateral conflict is in control of its own destiny, the other is relying on the kindness of strangers. I know what strategic position I’d rather be in.

 

 

Edited June 7, 2023 by changegonnacome

[Xerxes]

The national security lad gets an A from me for being able to memorize the administration talking points so well. 

[changegonnacome]

Yeah when I heard it though the “counter-offensive / year end negotiations with Russia” it sounded like he misspoke….but I haven’t been listening to US talking points recently….is that the party line? I mean you can’t help but hear that the US would really love to ramp down support and involvement in Ukraine in Q4….as I said though…the idea the US could ramp down involvement now is the most laughable part of that this thing is gonna end at the negotiating table so soon.

Edited June 7, 2023 by changegonnacome

[Spekulatius]

32 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

Yeah when I heard it though the “counter-offensive / year end negotiations with Russia” it sounded like he misspoke….but I haven’t been listening to US talking points recently….is that the party line? I mean you can’t help but hear that the US would really love to ramp down support and involvement in Ukraine in Q4….as I said though…the idea the US could ramp down involvement now is the most laughable part of that this thing is gonna end at the negotiating table so soon.

This is not going to end any time soon. I have not heard anybody from the administration suggesting that.

[changegonnacome]

32 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

This is not going to end any time soon. I have not heard anybody from the administration suggesting that.

I totally agree. This Ukrainian / Russian conflict is the new Vietnam/ Afghanistan….both those involved the US spending blood and treasure….so far in Ukraine it’s ‘just’ treasure….the real cost however should be measured in its strategic cost. Russia’s ever closer alliance/dependence with and on China which is not good….but importantly the lack of focus on where the US’s focus should be which is in Asia, not Eastern Europe. The real winner inside this mess is 

Did you watch the Jake Sullivan video I linked too - implied in the section that begins at 6m40secs….is, let’s call it the administrations pipe dream, that the Ukrainian counter-offensive will be so successful that it will force the Russian’s to the negotiating table later this year for talks and where Ukraine inside those talks would be dealing from a position of strength such that a deal could be done that would be acceptable to the Ukrainian people but more importantly acceptable to the Ukrainian hard-right which Zelensky has to cow-tow too.
 

To have the US national security advisor even imply such things in an interview must warm the Kremlins heart - the US administration is already fantasizing about an exit.

[cubsfan]

6 hours ago, Xerxes said:

The national security lad gets an A from me for being able to memorize the administration talking points so well. 

So well put. Sullivan is a real puppet.

[zippy1]

China’s exports plunge by 7.5% in May, far more than expected

• Exports fell 7.5% in May from a year ago, far worse than the 0.4% decline predicted by a Reuters poll.
• Imports for May dropped by 4.5% from a year ago — less than the 8% plunge forecast by Reuters
• The decline was so sharp that export volumes are below their levels at the start of the year, after accounting for seasonality and changes in export prices, Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China Economics, at Capital Economics, said in a note.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/07/chinas-exports-plunge-by-7point5percent-in-may-far-more-than-expected.html

[John Hjorth]

These days I'm thinking quite a bit on/off about what is really the motives for this war for Russia by now the way it's carried out. Russia seems to try demolish everything in and on its way in Ukraine. As in "If we can't get it, we can a least tear it down" [a lot of unspecified reference here to what Mike [ @cubsfan ] has posted in this topic.

 

Is it the fertile and large "grain chamber" [land] or something else?

[Spekulatius]

2 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

These days I'm thinking quite a bit on/off about what is really the motives for this war for Russia by now the way it's carried out. Russia seems to try demolish everything in and on its way in Ukraine. As in "If we can't get it, we can a least tear it down" [a lot of unspecified reference here to what Mike [ @cubsfan ] has posted in this topic.

 

Is it the fertile and large "grain chamber" [land] or something else?

I think tearing it down is plan B.

Plan A was to swallow it whole and get little Russia (which is how they call Ukraine) back into big Russia.

 

Even Demolishing doesn't really work for Russia, they have not been able to destroy the electricity grid for example last winter. I think we are getting at the point where part of Russia get's demolished and in addition the sanction are grinding down their economy slowly but surely.

 

One indicator - when have you seen Russia amass a significant number of tanks on the battlefield the last time? I think it may have been summer 2022. The likely reason is that they don't have them any more and even if they did, they would be shot to pieces. Most of Russia's offensive capabilities seem to have been spent in the first mad rush to get Kiev and Charkov, which both failed. So Russia's offensive capabilities are limited to sending prisoners as cannon fodder to the frontlines, until they run out of prisoners.

[John Hjorth]

I don't think there is any logical reasoning behind that, not even from a warfare perspective, but it may be me unable to comprehend things correctly as is.

 

And where the heck are all those international help organizations related to all the suffering of the people hit severely by that event with that dam?

[Spekulatius]

18 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

I don't think there is any logical reasoning behind that, not even from a warfare perspective, but it may be me unable to comprehend things correctly as is.

 

And where the heck are all those international help organizations related to all the suffering of the people hit severely by that event with that dam?

How are they going to help, it's an active war zone? Besides, it seems that mostly the Russian controlled side is flooded.

[John Hjorth]

The dam disaster at the Dnipro shows that Russia is not waging war in Ukraine as a country that expects to rebuild what it has conquered.

 

What kind of imperialism in the imperialism playbook is that? It's simply beyond me.

 

That is based on the assumption that Russia has done this. That assumption may be wrong, but I doubt it is.

 

And I really don't care if the people hit severely by this action are Ukraines or Russians. It's a war crime. And the thug giving this order has to be held reponsible.

 

All this is going on a few thousand kms from where I live my cosy life.

[Spekulatius]

29 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

The dam disaster at the Dnipro shows that Russia is not waging war in Ukraine as a country that expects to rebuild what it has conquered.

 

What kind of imperialism in the imperialism playbook is that? It's simply beyond me.

 

That is based on the assumption that Russia has done this. That assumption may be wrong, but I doubt it is.

 

And I really don't care if the people hit severely by this action are Ukraines or Russians. It's a war crime. And the thug giving this order has to be held reponsible.

 

All this is going on a few thousand kms from where I live my cosy life.

They blew the dam 6 month ago, but it wasn't totally destroyed. The second charge obviously did the trick.

This event has very little outcome on the war. This is nothing new either, just look at how the liberated cities Mariupol or Bakhmut look like.

 

My guess is that any Ukrainian offensive will occur in this area. It's the ideal terrain, flat and no major cities in the way and it would cut off the Russian landbridge from Crimea.

 

Edited June 8, 2023 by Spekulatius

[Ulti]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-elite-is-souring-on-putin-s-chances-of-winning-his-war/ar-AA1cgOHF