Political Posts

[shhughes1116]

It appears that the Ukrainians are still holding back about 10k-15k fresh troops, more if you include the 10k troops finishing up training in the UK.  This likely explains Ukraine's recent decision to cancel their upcoming autumn conscription.  

 

Reading between the lines, I think they are looking at the map and expecting that by Winter, they will only be fighting on the Donbas / Zaporizhzhia front.  

[Xerxes]

2 hours ago, shhughes1116 said:

 

There is not enough room on this thread to debunk the garbage in that Zero Hedge article.  This forum is filled with people that can see clearly see through the bullshit on balance sheets and cash flow statements, and yet seem to lack any corresponding ability for critical thinking about this conflict.  

 

Go back to my original post in the early Summer about how force generation would play out in Ukraine versus Russia, and the expected Fourth Battle of Krakiv.   

 

 

 

While the Collective Mind in this thread is correct about ZH, your second statement is probably incorrect.

 

The ability to read cash flow statement and being a good investor/financial analyst etc has nothing to with being able to keep an independent view. In the 1930s, you had an entire generation of people from all walks of life in Germany (a modern & educated Western country) that decided to wrap themselves in the flag and swear alligence to a madman. I am sure they had great doctors, great scientists, great strategists, great lawyers, all of whom were great in what they did, and yet clearly did NOT see through bullshit and lacked corresponding ability for critical thinking when it came to the concept of patrotism.

 

Intelligent people think it never happens to them. They think of themselves as too august and too good, to fall for such crap. Yet that very pride can seal their downfall. 

 

I would say that none of you (including me) here have really been tested.

 

Edited October 4, 2022 by Xerxes

[Castanza]

No offense but you guys saying Russia blew up its own 20 billion dollar asset to “cause a diversion” or something are crazy. 
 

The overwhelming evidence is that the US did it. Plenty of Washington insiders and even the President said they would. 
 

Either that or a pipe failure dude to something like James was saying. 
 

If you want to know who committed a crime/act then look to see who benefits. There are no longterm benefits for Russia to blow up that pipeline. But for the US they are immense. 
 

Truth will never come out. 

[james22]

1 hour ago, Castanza said:

If you want to know who committed a crime/act then look to see who benefits.

 

If only actors were rational.

 

Who benefits from the West's suicidal energy policy (beside "the worse, the better" types)?

[CassiusKing1]

4 hours ago, Castanza said:

If you want to know who committed a crime/act then look to see who benefits.

 

The Dude:
It's like what Lenin said... you look for the person who will benefit, and, uh, uh...

[boilermaker75]

For the Russian soldiers on the ground I am sure they feel this is all FUBAR.

Edited October 4, 2022 by boilermaker75

[crs223]

We are all guessing the unknowable, based on propaganda. Then trying to argue about who is the smartest.

 

What a waste of time.

[Gamecock-YT]

This thread sheds some light on why Putin might benefit from blowing up his pipeline:

 

 

[Spekulatius]

The 1420 vblogger (highly recommend to follow/subscribe) interviews random Russians in a rural town. Ouch:

 

Edited October 5, 2022 by Spekulatius

[formthirteen]

39 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

The 1420 vblogger (highly recommend to follow/subscribe) interviews random Russians in a rural town. Ouch:

 

”Protect the motherland”. In a way they are right for the wrong reasons. The Czech have already annexed Kaliningrad

 

https://visitkralovec.cz/

Edited October 5, 2022 by formthirteen

[UK]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraines-new-offensive-is-fueled-by-captured-russian-weapons-11664965264

 

One Ukrainian battalion, the Carpathian Sich, seized 10 modern T-80 tanks and five 2S5 Giatsint 152-mm self-propelled howitzers after it entered the town of Izyum last month, said its deputy chief of staff, Ruslan Andriyko. “We’ve got so many trophies that we don’t even know what to do with them,” he said. “We started off as an infantry battalion, and now we are sort of becoming a mechanized battalion.” 0The chief of staff of a Ukrainian artillery battalion on the Kharkiv front said his unit now operates four recently captured Russian 2S19 Msta 152-mm self-propelled howitzers, alongside American-made guns, and now has abundant Soviet-caliber ammunition. “The Russians no longer have a firepower advantage. We smashed up all their artillery units before launching the offensive, and then we started to move ahead so fast that they didn’t even have time to fuel up and load their tanks,” said the officer. “They just fled and left everything behind.”

 

Combined with weapons taken during Russia’s retreat from Kyiv and other parts of northern Ukraine in April, these recent gains have turned Moscow into by far the largest supplier of heavy weapons for Ukraine, well ahead of the U.S. or other allies in sheer numbers, according to open-source intelligence analysts. Western-provided weapons, though, are usually more advanced and precise. Ukraine has captured 460 Russian main battle tanks, 92 self-propelled howitzers, 448 infantry fighting vehicles, 195 armored fighting vehicles and 44 multiple-launch rocket systems, according to visual evidence compiled from social media and news reports from Oryx, an open-source intelligence consulting firm. The real number is likely higher as not every captured piece of equipment gets filmed.

Edited October 6, 2022 by UK

[Castanza]

https://youtu.be/nbt-CsSRJl8?t=6900

 

Bloomberg scrambling after the dude states simple logical conclusions 

 

To the US this war is about regime change. We will cut of the heads of any snakes we find and seize opportunities. Destroying a 20b asset of Russia's while also brining EU further under our wing is a no-brainer.

 

@UK Ukraine seems to be going into overdrive prior to winter.  

[Xerxes]

Jeffrey Saches will no longer be invited to Bloomberg.

Next time professor, stick to the narrative !

 

[Spekulatius]

It’s becoming more and more clear that the Kherson pocket is a trap for the Russians. Supposedly, there are 15-20k Russian soldiers north of the Dnipro river and they don’t really have a way to get out, since the bridges are blasted up.

This may take a few weeks, but I think the Russians will lose a lot of material and troops there that they cannot replace. Bloody recruits that do not want to fight  can’t make up for the losses.

 

I also don’t think the war activity will stop in winter. The Russians are not equipped for winter, they don’t even have the uniforms apparently. All the new recruits will need a lot of supplies are there will be huge problems. It’s ironical because the Russians army used to have general winter as their friend, but this time, it’s looking more and more like the opposite. I bet the Ukrainians have the means to keep fighting in winter and it may turn out to be a huge advantage for them.

[Xerxes]

General “mud” might be coming before General “February”

[UK]

https://www.ft.com/content/6825bee4-52a7-4c86-b1aa-31c100708c3e

 

“The US has essentially declared war on China’s ability to advance the country’s use of high-performance computing for economic and security gains,” said Triolo. The controls will hit Chinese companies in multiple ways. They will bar US companies from exporting critical chip manufacturing tools to China, which will affect groups such as Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp, Yangtze Memory Technologies Co and ChangXin Memory. They will also prohibit US citizens and companies from providing any kind of direct or indirect support for semiconductor fabrication plants in China. The US also put YMTC — along with 30 other Chinese entities — on a list of “unverified” companies, paving the way for possible inclusion on a separate blacklist called the “entity list” that would effectively bar US companies from supplying them with technology. “The administration’s strategy is to deny China the capability to indigenise its semiconductor industry. If the US is successful, this causes a huge problem for Beijing’s strategy to be a world-class player,” said Martijn Rasser, a security and technology expert at the Center for a New American Security, a think-tank. Underscoring the scope of the controls, the US is using a far-reaching mechanism called the “foreign direct product rule” to make it harder for China to develop and maintain supercomputers and AI technology. The rule — which was first used by the Trump administration against Chinese technology group Huawei — in effect bars any US or non-US company from supplying targeted Chinese entities with hardware or software that contains, or has been manufactured with, American technology.

 

Analysts said China’s memory chipmakers, including YMTC and ChangXin Memory, would feel the most immediate blow. “They are basically doomed,” said Mark Li, a semiconductor analyst at Bernstein in Hong Kong. “It will be very difficult for them to get the equipment they need. But the ban on the export of semiconductor tools could significantly hurt Chinese chipmakers more broadly because US equipment makers have a stranglehold in a few key niches. Triolo said there would be “many losers”, including US chip design leaders such as Nvidia and AMD, and tool makers including Applied Materials and Lam Research. He said the rules would also hit non-US players, including ASML, the Dutch company that produces the most advanced semiconductor tools, and TSMC, the Taiwanese contract foundry company. One chip industry executive said the US was attacking China “from all angles”. “The stunning thing about this move is that they have assembled a whole array of tools,” the executive said. “They are not just targeting military applications, they are trying to block the development of China’s technology power by any means.”

 

[Xerxes]

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-installed-ukraine-official-pours-scorn-putins-generals-defence-minister-2022-10-06/
 

The defence minister should consider this, given the true state of his portfolio of responsibility. He has become Ukraine’ biggest weapon supplier !

[Spekulatius]

@UK thank you for posting. These restrictions are fairly broad and will significantly impact the semi equipment companies. AMAT, LCRX and the likes had more than 25% of their business in China.

 

Again the fault zone towards the China are getting deeper - a new sort of economical Cold War is developing here.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/white-house-adds-restrictions-chip-151509945.html

[Xerxes]

Just now … “Blast damages only bridge linking Russia and Crimea“

 

“Crimea, the bridge, the beginning”

 

Sleep walking to Armageddon are we … 

[John Hjorth]

@Xerxes,

 

Just another observation point in what's going on, where pretty much everyone is held in the dark with regard to the overall picture of the conflict, its recent status and stage, and expected development going forward.

[Spekulatius]

The bridge from Kerch to Crimea needed to go, so that’s great news, and it looks like it’s mostly gone. It may need another strike to totally severe  and make it unusable.

We can see now the broad strokes of a giant encirclement. First the 15-20k army group north of Dnipro is pinned down and probably get’s destroyed. Then I think Ukraine can attack and cut off the land bridge to Crimea and whatever is there going to be sealed off as well.

 

Frigging Putin can end this - take the balls and go home. Claim it all was the plan to begin with and Ukraine is de-nazified successfully. Apply doublethink playbook. Blame whatever failure there is on his army generals and throw them out of the window or sent them to Siberia. It has been done before and that’s how I see the war ending.

[Viking]

The Ukraine war has been a disaster for Russia. The longer it goes on the weaker Russia becomes. The weaker Russia becomes the less influence it has in the former Soviet sphere. China is licking its chops. Ukraine, with its success dramatically weakening Russia’s military, is now helping China grow its influence. (Makes one wonder why China is not sending Ukraine weapons :-) As this becomes more obvious, got to wonder when  Russian’s wake up to the reality of what is going on.
 

Putin invaded Ukraine to re-establish Russia’s former empire/influence/glory. It is becoming more and more clear he is achieving the opposite: Russia’s standing in its former empire is deteriorating badly. The decline in its influence is accelerating. And glory has been replaced with defeat and shame. I am starting to wonder how long the war can continue along its current trajectory…
—————

A Distracted Russia Is Losing Its Grip on Its Old Soviet Sphere

- https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/08/world/asia/russia-putin-soviet.html
 

Russia’s domination of Central Asia and the Caucasus region is unraveling as the Kremlin focuses on the war in Ukraine — and border violence is flaring.

 

… “Until Ukraine, China and Russia were not interested in open competition in Central Asia,” said Asel Doolotkeldieva, a senior lecturer at the OSCE Academy in Bishkek, a center for postgraduate studies focused on security issues. “There was a tacit division of labor: security for Russia, economics for China. But Russia is not doing its job anymore. It has shown that it is unable, or unwilling, to protect the region.”

 

….. “Putin is no longer the great invincible leader that everyone wants to meet,” said Emil Dzhuraev, a researcher in Bishkek with Crossroads Central Asia, a research group. “He has lost his aura.”

 

By contrast, Mr. Xi has become more assertive. On a visit to Kazakhstan last month, he pledged to “resolutely support Kazakhstan in the defense of its independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity,” a remark widely interpreted as a warning to Moscow not to try anything.”

Edited October 8, 2022 by Viking

[Viking]

3 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

The bridge from Kerch to Crimea needed to go, so that’s great news, and it looks like it’s mostly gone. It may need another strike to totally severe  and make it unusable.

We can see now the broad strokes of a giant encirclement. First the 15-20k army group north of Dnipro is pinned down and probably get’s destroyed. Then I think Ukraine can attack and cut off the land bridge to Crimea and whatever is there going to be sealed off as well.

 

Frigging Putin can end this - take the balls and go home. Claim it all was the plan to begin with and Ukraine is de-nazified successfully. Apply doublethink playbook. Blame whatever failure there is on his army generals and throw them out of the window or sent them to Siberia. It has been done before and that’s how I see the war ending.

It looks like Russia will view this as an escalation of the war by Ukraine. In this game of chess, what will be Putin’s next move?

—————

Impact of Kerch bridge blast will be felt all the way to the Kremlin

- https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/08/impact-of-kerch-bridge-blast-will-be-felt-all-the-way-to-the-kremli

 

…..When the Russian president opened its road span on 15 May 2018, driving an orange Kamaz truck across the bridge, he boasted of its significance.

 

“In different historical epochs, even under the tsar priests, people dreamed of building this bridge. Then they returned to this [idea] in the 1930s, the 40s, the 50s. And finally, thanks to your work and your talent, the miracle has happened.”

 

… How Moscow responds is the big question, but one that had been looming ever more powerfully as Ukraine has successfully pressed its counteroffensive in recent weeks amid mounting disquiet among Russian elites and commentators over the conduct of Putin’s war.

 

In April, Dmitry Medvedev, former Russian president and prime minister, and currently deputy chair of the Security Council of Russia, said: “One of the Ukrainian generals talked about the need to strike at the Crimean Bridge. I hope he understands what the retaliatory target will be.”

 

At the very least it is a huge propaganda victory for Kyiv that will be held up as a sign that not only is it unafraid of Putin’s nuclear threats but that it believes it is winning the war.

Edited October 8, 2022 by Viking

[LC]

Just wondering what parallels anyone sees between this war and America’s 20? Year war in the Middle East (Afghanistan, Iraq).

 

iirc the US military had a lot of trouble early on in Afghanistan, but look how long troops stayed there…

[Spekulatius]

48 minutes ago, LC said:

Just wondering what parallels anyone sees between this war and America’s 20? Year war in the Middle East (Afghanistan, Iraq).

 

iirc the US military had a lot of trouble early on in Afghanistan, but look how long troops stayed there…

Afghanistan was an insurgency . In Iraq, the US won the war, but can’t win the insurgency

 

Insurgencies are like weed in a yard, you can control it, but you can never “win”. Once you stop working in your yard, the weed comes back.

 

Afganistan wasn’t out even our yard, so we got the hell out there in a way that didn’t look good to put it mildly. Ukraine - Russia is a conventional war. There is a front line. Two armies are fighting each other. Afghanistan and Ukraine are very different conflicts and have little to do with each other. To get back to a similar similar situation with the US involved, you have to go back to Korea in the 50’s. The US has not lost a conventional war for a long time.

Edited October 8, 2022 by Spekulatius