Political Posts

[changegonnacome]

9 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

I think negotiations are at this point are unlikely to lead to anything. There is no willingness from either side to negotiate.

 

Which is a shame......seems to me that there is window now.......where both might be able to leave the negotiating table with a narrative that vaguely works domestically/internationally. 

 

Frankly as I've outlined before....I'm interested and supportive of Ukrainian sovereignty.....but what motivates my thinking chiefly is how to minimize, even the slightest hint of a possibility of nuclear escalation.

 

Proxy wars in far flung jurisdictions not neighboring a nuclear power are one thing......but to bring a proxy war to a nuclear powers doorstep is quite another.

[Gregmal]

Machismo and war tend to go hand in hand. Whomever thinks theyre winning typically thinks they'll win. Same with sports. Its why the top investment firms often looks for athletes from the top universities to hire. 

[shhughes1116]

40 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Which is a shame......seems to me that there is window now.......where both might be able to leave the negotiating table with a narrative that vaguely works domestically/internationally.

People keep suggesting that negotiation is possible with Putin.  It is not.  For Putin, negotiations and cease fires are simply an opportunity to re-arm and re-position combat units for the next round of war.  
 

The Russians and their collaborators are panicking.  They’ve hastily called for referenda between Sept 23 and Sept 27, and the Duma is bringing back Stalin-esque laws, such as criminalizing the act of surrendering with a 10-year prison sentence.  
 

if I was a betting man, we are going to see the Ukrainians blow a hole in the Russian line in Zaporizhzhia that is timed to coincide with the referendum.  Head south to Mauiopil and Melitpol, and then wheel west towards Crimea.  This makes the Russian positions in Kherson untenable, and opens the door to Crimea.  The Russian collaborators will have to choose between running a sham referendum or fleeing to save their lives.   

 

[lnofeisone]

Looks like option 1 that @shhughes1116 provided is up next. Putin is calling for partial mobilization of conscripts. Conscripts can't serve in non-Russian territories so looks like the next play Putin is going with is referendums to proclaim legitimacy of the three regions in eastern Ukraine and pouring 300k troops on top of what's there now. 

 

Looks Putin and Shoigu by extension are carefully maneuvering this one. Lots of incentives for the 300k to show up (regular army benefits, etc.). They are calling up logistics experts and experienced troops first and actually giving them more than a week of training. Regular army contracts are extended "for as long as conscripts are in service." With cold a month away, this will very likely be "hold the line" exercise with opportunistic strikes on both sides. 

[shhughes1116]

1 hour ago, lnofeisone said:

Looks like option 1 that @shhughes1116 provided is up next. Putin is calling for partial mobilization of conscripts. Conscripts can't serve in non-Russian territories so looks like the next play Putin is going with is referendums to proclaim legitimacy of the three regions in eastern Ukraine and pouring 300k troops on top of what's there now. 

 

Looks Putin and Shoigu by extension are carefully maneuvering this one. Lots of incentives for the 300k to show up (regular army benefits, etc.). They are calling up logistics experts and experienced troops first and actually giving them more than a week of training. Regular army contracts are extended "for as long as conscripts are in service." With cold a month away, this will very likely be "hold the line" exercise with opportunistic strikes on both sides. 

Remember that what they say publicly is usually different from what happens behind the scenes, especially as it relates to training in the military.  The folks mobilized will not receive more than a week of training.  They will be lucky to receive any real training.  Much of the training cadre was deployed to Ukraine already, and historically most of the training funding has been siphoned away through corruption - recruits are lucky if they even get to fire their weapon before deployment.  
 

if you thought you saw canon fodder over the last six months, this will be worse.  Think of the opening scene to the move Stalingrad.  “Rifle for you, ammunition for you.  When the man in front drops the rifle, the man in back picks up the rifle.”  That’s the approach they are using. 

[Xerxes]

If a democratically elected leader (LBJ) of a major Western power couldn’t come down his high horses and find a way to end Vietnam, I don’t understand why people in this thread think that the gangsters running Kremlin are not going to double down. 
 

There can be no strategic pause for Kiev. As they can re-arm at a much faster than Moscow can, thanks to the Western inflow of war material. Russian Motherland and the regime are not at any existential risk thanks to the nukes and the internal controls and incentives built over decades and the Rubicon has already been crossed on Western sanctions. So no incremental gain there for Kremlin to play nice. Zelensky is no fool. He already know all this.  
 

That said countries like Turkey can play a role here as mediator over time. But a mediator cannot see things in a “cartoonish” ways of bad guys vs good guys. 
 

here is a good interview from yesterday with president of Turkey. I must admit I found his answer on Crimea very confusing. Not sure what design Turkey has on the ancestral land of the Tartar khans. 
 

 

[mcliu]

If Russia decides to nuke Ukraine what's the appropriate Western response? Nuke Moscow? Are we willing to risk mutually assured destruction over Ukraine?

[Spekulatius]

24 minutes ago, mcliu said:

If Russia decides to nuke Ukraine what's the appropriate Western response? Nuke Moscow? Are we willing to risk mutually assured destruction over Ukraine?

Conventional strike. Lot's of cruise missiles on military targets in occupied Ukraine and Russia.

 

Sea blockade. No ships leaves Russian harbors. No ship goes in.

 

Just a few options. I have no idea, but I think a nuclear counterstrike is not likely, at least not as a first measure. If Russia continues with nuclear weapons it well eventually escalate.

 

FWIW, i don't think giving Ukraine 50 nuclear warheads on ballistic missiles is the worst idea in this case.

Edited September 21, 2022 by Spekulatius

[Xerxes]

People can say what they want, but there is nothing Western powers can do if Russia goes nuclear tactically.
 

But at this point I would think the chances are low, as they have not exhausted the landmass for its resources. And Motherland is not at risk.  
 

Nuclear wasn’t that taboo, when Mcarthur was planning to drop 50 of them on Manchuria. Even the mighty President Bush (‘41) considered it using against Iraq in 1991 as a threat. A threat is not a threat if you are not willing to pull the trigger. 
 

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/os-xpm-1991-03-10-9103090421-story.html

[Xerxes]

8 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Conventional strike. Lot's of cruise missiles on military targets in occupied Ukraine and Russia.

 

Sea blockade. No ships leaves Russian harbors. No ship goes in.

and what would President Biden say exactly as he address the nation that we are blowing things up inside Russia proper.   
 

That is for all intent and purpose a declaration of war.
 

You may think it is limited strikes and what not. But the other side doesn’t see that. 
 

If Russia couldn’t hide its full scale military invasion behind “special ops bs”, the West cannot hide its open declaration of war behind some “proportional NATO response mumbo jumbo”

[shhughes1116]

56 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Conventional strike. Lot's of cruise missiles on military targets in occupied Ukraine and Russia.

 

Sea blockade. No ships leaves Russian harbors. No ship goes in.

 

Just a few options. I have no idea, but I think a nuclear counterstrike is not likely, at least not as a first measure. If Russia continues with nuclear weapons it well eventually escalate.

 

FWIW, i don't think giving Ukraine 50 nuclear warheads on ballistic missiles is the worst idea in this case.

NATO is not going to strike Russia, unless Russia strikes NATO first.

 

I see it more likely that the West provides Ukraine with multiple mobile nuclear weapons, just enough to cause Putin to think twice about striking Ukraine. 
 

on a semi-related note, heavy artillery on the Zaporizchzhia front today and the Ukrainians removed some of their minefields recently.  Things might get saucy soon around Melitopol and Mauriopil. 

[Pelagic]

40 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

and what would President Biden say exactly as he address the nation that we are blowing things up inside Russia proper.   
 

That is for all intent and purpose a declaration of war.
 

You may think it is limited strikes and what not. But the other side doesn’t see that. 
 

If Russia couldn’t hide its full scale military invasion behind “special ops bs”, the West cannot hide its open declaration of war behind some “proportional NATO response mumbo jumbo”

 

Let's remember Russia committed somewhere in the neighborhood of 80% of their conventional forces to fighting in Ukraine. A NATO lead conventional strike on Russian forces in Ukraine isn't nearly as escalatory as striking targets within Russia yet could still do significant damage to Russia's military.

 

I still think the use of nuclear weapons, even tactical ones, is mostly talk by Russia. Tactical nuclear weapons aren't an instant remedy for Russia's underequipped and undertrained army. They were designed to buy defenders time against tank formations in the hundreds during the Cold War. Ukraine's "armored fist" that broke through to Kupiansk was something like 17 tanks. There's videos all over reddit and twitter of the recent Ukrainian offensive, a dozen vehicles here, another dozen elsewhere - these aren't the large formations that TNWs were designed for. Add to that you get into the strange position of using TNWs to defend territory you just held a sham referendum to label Russia. And it's not like Russia has the real time intelligence to strike Ukrainian force buildups accurately with TNWs either, otherwise the submarine launched Kalibir missiles they launched at power plants two weeks ago would have targeted Ukraine's ongoing offensive instead of a single powerplant. You have to hope someone in the Russian command structure is asking themselves these questions and is also concluding there just isn't a target worth the ramifications of using nuclear weapons. And on Ukraine's side they're likely aware of this too and not massing forces in a way that they present a target that Russian could strike.

[Xerxes]

@Pelagic

 

I agree. I said earlier that it is low risk, (even lower than six months ago) given the framework that has been established in the past six months. 
 

My comment was about NATO response to a hypothetical tactical nuclear strike somewhere in Ukraine. Even a NATO direct conventional strike against Russian forces only in Ukraine has no tangible benefit given the shamble position of the Russian military forces already there BUT has all the downside of whatever we are not thinking about it. 

Edited September 21, 2022 by Xerxes

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, Xerxes said:

@Pelagic

 

I agree. I said earlier that it is low risk, (even lower than six months ago) given the framework that has been established in the past six months. 
 

My comment was about NATO response to a hypothetical tactical nuclear strike somewhere in Ukraine. Even a NATO direct conventional strike against Russian forces only in Ukraine has no tangible benefit given the shamble position of the Russian military forces already there BUT has all the downside of whatever we are not thinking about it. 

 

Russia is bluffing.  If nuclear weapons were used on Ukraine, China would step in before the U.S. to deter Russia.  China is not interested in this crap.  They want to keep Putin on a comfortable leash, but not stir a global calamity. 

 

China wants Russia to push Ukraine far enough so that the World understands that Taiwan could suffer the same fate...but China definitely doesn't want sanctions or to create a World crisis.  Putin's position is also at risk...his generals do not want to escalate this thing much further...certainly not nuclear. 

 

This will all end some time next year...Putin will be replaced or get his piece of Ukraine and consider it a victory.  Everyone else will backdown and the U.S. will bring the remaining portion of Ukraine into NATO.  Cheers!

[Xerxes]

@Parsad

You forgot one thing:   President Biden beaming in pride as he runs for a second term on the back of presiding over the humiliation of Russia and the return of the Internationalist/Globalist as a specie. 

 

On nukes, Russia is indeed bluffing. I am of that view as well. 

 

But I would add that we also thought they were bluffing in Feb 2022, where they mounted a full scale invasion that made absolutely no sense. Our current point of views are shaped on what we know and what we think we know, steeped in analysis. Not what we dont know. For whatever reason, there was tripwire that went off in Kremlin in second half 2021 early 2022. Even Lavrov probably did not know the extent of Russia involvement on the eve of the invasion & certainly not us.

 

Of course, we in the West can look back and build a narrative around it, in terms of why/what and write essays about it etc. But that is after the fact, when we do our analysis, establish new biases etc.

 

On China, you are correct on everying except the assumption that Bejing can CTRL-Z an already exploded Russian tactical nuke. If it were to happen it will be a fair accompli based on some nonsense about terrirtoral integrity of newly annexed region .... there would be no posturing. But like it said, my biases tells me that were are not there and wont be there, but certainly the pathway is being created via annexation to bring those newly "minted" territories under its nuclear umbrella.

 

With Russia, it is all about grey zones and ambiguities and hybrid wars and plausible deniability. That is how they ran the 2014-2021 war in the Donbas region. Hybrid war. They were there but not there but still there but really not there but kind of there.

Edited September 21, 2022 by Xerxes

[Spekulatius]

I read some transcripts of what Putin has been saying regarding nukes and he makes it appear like NATO threatens Russia with Nukes.

 

Also, Putin always does some saber rattling on UN meetings and of course he needed something to go along with his partial mobilization. So, I think this is just for show and not really anything new.

 

I agree with @shhughes1116 that Ukraine may do something on the offensive before late fall and winter when offensive operations become more difficult. Cutting that Landbridge to Crimea would very nice.

 

I also think that it’s getting more and more likely that Germany is going to give some tanks or Marder vehicles to Ukraine since Scholz is running out of excuses. Would be cool to see German tanks with Ukraine flags rolling.

[aws]

It's amazing how many contradictions the Kremlin can try and get away with.

 

It's a war, but you'd go to jail if you called it a war instead of a special military operation.

 

A war to protect the Russian speaking population, fought by laying waste to all civilian buildings and infrastructure in the area they are liberating.

 

Russia is crushing the Ukrainian army in battle. Killing 100k vs. 6k Russian losses per their announcement this morning, but they need to mobilize 300k new troops to continue the effort.

 

At least the most recent one is good news: A primary goal was stated as "denazification" of Ukraine, as primarily represented by the Azov battalion. But the news today is that Putin agreed to release the commanders of Azov and a couple hundred of the other Azovstal defenders.

 

https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/09/22/more-azovstal-defenders-return-home-from-russian-captivity-after-pow-exchange/

 

 

[Spekulatius]

3 minutes ago, aws said:

It's amazing how many contradictions the Kremlin can try and get away with.

 

It's a war, but you'd go to jail if you called it a war instead of a special military operation.

 

A war to protect the Russian speaking population, fought by laying waste to all civilian buildings and infrastructure in the area they are liberating.

 

Russia is crushing the Ukrainian army in battle. Killing 100k vs. 6k Russian losses per their announcement this morning, but they need to mobilize 300k new troops to continue the effort.

 

At least the most recent one is good news: A primary goal was stated as "denazification" of Ukraine, as primarily represented by the Azov battalion. But the news today is that Putin agreed to release the commanders of Azov and a couple hundred of the other Azovstal defenders.

 

https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/09/22/more-azovstal-defenders-return-home-from-russian-captivity-after-pow-exchange/

 

 

Orwell coined the term doublethink for it.

 

In George Orwell's dystopian classic 1984, doublethink is the act of holding, simultaneously, two opposite, individually exclusive ideas or opinions and believing in both simultaneously and absolutely. Doublethink requires using logic against logic or suspending disbelief in the contradiction.

 

[james22]

Russia is already crashing demographically, and the main cohort of this war is coming from the men who should be fathering children. “This is a potentially a country killer. Before I thought that this was Russia’s last war. Now I’m certain of it.”

 

https://www.battleswarmblog.com/?p=52709

[Xerxes]

War on the Rocks

Not sure who recommended to me this Podcast. As it is the only non-investing podcast I listen to. The recent episode (there is a part 2 to it) was fun to listen to as it delves into 1990s. There are not much books written on the Chechen conflicts.

 

The podcast also recommends a recent book called "Command" written by one of the guests on that episodes. 

 

Command: The Politics of Military Operations from Korea to Ukraine: Freedman, Lawrence: 9780197540671: Books - Amazon.ca

 

Here is a review from The Guardian and The Economist:

Command by Lawrence Freedman review – inside the war room | Politics books | The Guardian

In war, the key tussles are often between generals and leaders | The Economist

 

The book boast a 600 page and looks to be a great addition for my (anybody else's) unread pile of books.

[Spekulatius]

If these reports are true, they are drafting regardless of military experience in Russia.

 

There are quite a few more of these stories around, so I think this is not an isolated case. They are pulling in bodies from wherever they can.

 

[changegonnacome]

Wow - are the ‘Mothers of Russia’ going to stand for this………the domestic regime in Russia is going to get very interesting over the coming months……..I wonder at what point does Xi suggest to Putin that this all really has to end for everybody’s sake……..China’s domestic economy is going to be at the receiving end of a global recession……what usefulness has this distraction got left for Xi/China I wonder?…..the West’s ‘Taiwan invasion sanctions playbook’ has been revealed to punish Russia…..China can spend the next 5-10 years building a Russia-eque sanctions proof regime based of off this information……sure it distracts the US from where their head should be which is Asia that the only upside left…..but what else now is to be gained.

[nwoodman]

On 9/22/2022 at 11:26 AM, james22 said:

Russia is already crashing demographically, and the main cohort of this war is coming from the men who should be fathering children. “This is a potentially a country killer. Before I thought that this was Russia’s last war. Now I’m certain of it.”

 

https://www.battleswarmblog.com/?p=52709

Great read.  The definition of insanity springs to mind.  Watching the news this morning there appears to be a  “run on Russia” with many young men fleeing across the border.  Hopefully this plays out rapidly from here….in a good way

Edited September 23, 2022 by nwoodman

[Spekulatius]

Pretty much everything that Putin says in his speech about the mobilization is BS. It also seems that his claim that he is mobilizing reserves and those with military expire he only, There are countless videos of transcripts getting drafted that look like they are 18 years old. it‘s not just the 32 year old IT guy.

Putin probably intend to draft more than 300k soldiers or expects huge losses (through desertion or people being unfit or maybe on the frontline). This is going to be the Russian meatgrinder all over again and I expect huge losses. I don’t think these recruits will get winter uniforms either.

The West really needs to support Ukraine with material for winter and offensive weapons that allows them to conduct offensive operations. I think a lot of the units formed from these Volksturm soldiers wills shatter on first contact. It‘s going to be a target rich environment, to use investment lingo.

 

Also to keep in mind that revolutions in Russia were started with Soldiers getting unruly due to a senseless war and bad leadership. Minorities from Siberia are bearing the brunt of this. If they wake up (maybe unlikely but not impossible)  then the Russian federation could fall apart. Even Belarus looks shaky as an ally because the opposition is emboldened and people seem unhappy with Lukaschenko and being allied with Putin. There is a reason they mobilized the army and it’s not to attack Ukraine (Belarus army is tiny).

 

As for material, Russia is not pulling T62 tanks out of storage. Apparently they are running out of T72/80, not that those proved to be all that great, T62 is a 1960‘s tank, so those machines are 60 years old.

 

If that’s not scrapping the bottomed the barrel , i don’t know what is.

Edited September 23, 2022 by Spekulatius

[changegonnacome]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

If that’s not scrapping the bottomed the barrel , i don’t know what is.

 

Sounds like it - its a dangerous game the West is playing however....big picture I mean for everybody on the planet, however tiny the chances are this escalates into a nuclear threat....conducting a proxy war with a nuclear power not in some far flung jurisdiction in the Middle East or Asia where the stakes are low....... but rather right on that nuclear powers doorstep.......when you think about doomsday scenarios which would trigger the use of nukes.......existential regime threats against a nuclear power are one.......coming right up to the doorstep of a nuclear power is one (see Cuban Missile crisis).........whatever happens next in terms of arming Ukraine, any hint that West is interested in regime change or providing military hardware that might find itself hitting pre-Feb 2022 Russian territory has to be avoided at all costs.

 

I support Ukraine's right to sovereignty & to exist.......but in the nuclear age.....world leaders have to be respectful of everybody else on planets right to EXIST too.......good guys/bad guys......democracy vs autocracy.......I get it......sounds like a Hollywood movie....but it aint real life.....at some point getting to an imperfect peace is the right answer for the 8bn people in the World not just 40m Ukranian's.....Ukraine has to win a little, Putin has to win a little for this to end....your momma never told you this but sometimes good things happen too bad people.