Political Posts

[John Hjorth]

26 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

Yep curious for @shhughes1116 latest take on things….is this a true turning point and what options does Putin have remaining to him now?

 

@changegonnacome,

 

Your post above is first level thinking. Second level thinking is about what options do Russia have remaining for now.

 

 

[james22]

Consider: If Russian President Vladimir Putin tired of attrition and decided to use tactical nuclear weapons, how would Russian behavior—a rapid withdrawal and even leaving key equipment behind—be different? The answer: It would not be.

 

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/09/could-russias-sudden-ukraine-retreat-mean-a-tactical-nuclear-weapons-strike-is-coming/

[Spekulatius]

If Russia uses

2 hours ago, james22 said:

Consider: If Russian President Vladimir Putin tired of attrition and decided to use tactical nuclear weapons, how would Russian behavior—a rapid withdrawal and even leaving key equipment behind—be different? The answer: It would not be.

 

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/09/could-russias-sudden-ukraine-retreat-mean-a-tactical-nuclear-weapons-strike-is-coming/

At this point very unlikely. First, Russia has not even declared this special operation a war yet, second Putin himself has downplayed the nuclear option just a short time month ago.

https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-there-can-be-no-winners-nuclear-war-it-should-never-be-started-2022-08-01/

 

Also, to make it clear, in my opinion Russia has lost a huge battle but has not yet lost the war yet. It is clear now however, that victory as Putin sees it is far out of reach. If the Russians can stabilize the frontline, they could probably spin their own propaganda machine to still declare their “accomplishments” a victory.

 

In my opinion, the west should really ramp up their military aid to give Ukraine the offensive weapons they need (tanks, capable infantry fighting vehicles, F16’s )  to get this quickly over with. The Ukrainians have proven to be capable so if they get the full nine yards of weapons, the Russians are out of Ukraine including Crimean early next year.

 

A bit nuclear saber rattling from Putin is expected and should be ignored.

Edited September 11, 2022 by Spekulatius

[no_free_lunch]

I am no expert but what I see from the few Russian accounts I follow is:

- Acknowledgement of the recent Ukrainian victories and Russian withdrawal.

- Blame is placed entirely on NATO weapons and intelligence.

- They are doubling down on their commitment to the conventional war and believe this is a temporary setback.

- The message is that as it's a war against NATO, those who oppose it internally are traitors.

- Large scale attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure are ongoing.  They will likely raise the bar in this regard.

 

[crs223]

3 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

In my opinion, the west should really ramp up their military aid to give Ukraine the offensive weapons they need (tanks, capable infantry fighting vehicles, F16’s )  to get this quickly over with.

 

Maybe past performance should not be used... but historically US involvement is the kiss of death.  I only know what I see on TV -- and I have no solution...

 

My neighbors are doing their part by flying Ukrainian flags.

[Xerxes]

General "Mud" donned an Ukrainian uniform back in March-April when the so-called multi-mile Russian military convoy was trying to pull its weight (unsuccesfully) toward Kiev kicking and screaming. Will General "Mud" don a Russian uniform come Fall as Ukraine overextende its line of communication ??

 

I think like everything else, you cannot just take a snapshot and projected to the future.

 

If someone were to tell me about the subtlies of "declaring war" and "special operation" for Russia pre-Feb 2022, I would have laughed. After all, that subtly was less aparent with U.S. conducting a full scale war in Vientnam without declaring war (yes, yes, U.S. was already drafting). Point is, there was something there that I didnt know and seem to mean something to Russia. How many more other variable & mental tripwire there is for the Kremlin that we do not know about. The one think we can be clear is that the Kremlin (under current regime) cannot have any sort cease-fire that would allow Kiev to replenish itself. (i.e. Kremlin gets a vote too) 

 

I am about 1/3 through my book on Peter the Great. It is an incredible read. Will post it in the book section once i am half way through. The author did the world a service by writing such a biography. So well written. I am at the early stage of the 20-year Great Northern War, where a losely colliation of Peter's Russia, Poland and Denmark embark on war against one of the most powerful imperial force of its day : Charles XII's Sweden. At the battle of Narva (a fortress near the today's border with Estonia-Russia), Charles XII sweep a Russian force many times it size, after knocking the Danes and the Poles out of the war. That was just the start of this long 20 year war (and no one knew it at the time) that would end with Russia ascendence and Sweden losing its empire, if we can use that word.

 

What this has to do with today. Nothing other that, just that whatever you think you know, prepared to be surprised.

 

 

[aws]

The Russian army certainly seems to be exposed as hollow. In the Kharkiv region Ukraine has liberated all the way up to the Russian border. Along the way the Russian army left countless amounts of tanks, other military vehicles, and ammo dumps for Ukraine to capture. Not to mention troops killed or captured in the hasty retreat. The invasion force of 200k soldiers by most estimates has taken over 80k casualties, and the volunteer brigades of 60 year old men they have been fielding lately are hardly going to be enough to replace them.

 

On the materiel side you would have thought they had endless supplies of cold war munitions, but now with the news they are turning to North Korea to buy shells you have to wonder how deep the reserves really are.

 

It seems like Russia will soon need to contract the battle lines back to the 2014 borders to have a fight they can handle. Either that or they do have to give up the pretense of this being a "special military operation" and take the risk of actually declaring war and full mobilization. Then they will see how much their citizens truly support the war effort, when it requires more than giving up a few western comforts and wearing a Z.

 

By the way, tonight's clip from Russian media is surprisingly candid. It's worth a watch.

 

 

 

 

[bizaro86]

I had the most amazing experience today and this seems like the place to share it.

When I was a teenager both my (now) wife and myself took a summer volunteer trip to Ukraine. We were mostly working with kids in a rural area, and it absolutely rips me apart that the 3-5 year olds I spent the summer reading to and playing games with are now almost certainly all engaged in a brutal war for survival. I'm often online late at night now because I can't sleep thinking about it.

A bunch of us were billeted with an amazing family in this little village. They took care of us, fed us, and were just wonderful hosts. Today, my wife got a whats app message (kind of a friend-of-a-friend thing) that someone was looking for winter clothing for some Ukrainian refugees who have kids a bit younger than ours, and did we have any extras/hand-me-downs that would suit. As the conversation progressed, she found out some information about the family.

It turns out that the family who billeted us in Ukraine ~20 years ago has fled the country. The parents, their two children, the children's spouses, and the grandchildren are all living temporarily with a family IN CALGARY (the medium sized Canadian city where I live). I have no idea what the odds of this are, it seems astronomical to me. Obviously we'll be doing the winter clothes and more, and we haven't made it down to see them yet as we just found out today. I'm sort of in shock and am a bit unsure of exactly what to do next, but had to share it somewhere and this thread seemed like a reasonable place.

[Xerxes]

Thanks for sharing @bizaro86

What are the odds indeed !!   there a lot of them in Saskatchewan as well

 

A remote Canadian province luxuriates in the global supply crunch | The Economist 

 

"Nor, it seems, can the world. The 15m tonnes of wheat and 20m tonnes of other crops that the province produces in a typical year will be vital to markets roiled by the war between Russia and Ukraine. So, too, will almost everything else Saskatchewan produces.

 

When Ukrainian immigrants first streamed into Canada at the end of the 19th century, the government of the day had a role in mind for them: to settle the vast prairies between the forests of Ontario and the Rocky Mountains. The minister of immigration knew what he wanted: “a stalwart peasant in a sheepskin coat, born on the soil, whose forefathers have been farmers for ten generations, with a stout wife and a half-dozen children.” Those with uncalloused hands could look elsewhere.

 

It was a good match. The landscape reminded many of Bukovina and Galicia in western Ukraine. Its aspen forests needed clearing but the soil was lush and the land dirt cheap. By the first world war tens of thousands had come, settling around onion-domed churches, often living next to the same neighbours they had back home. That migration established what would become the world’s second-largest Ukrainian diaspora, behind Russia’s. In Saskatchewan, where a tenth of the population has Ukrainian roots, events in eastern Europe are again shifting local fortunes. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has not quite prompted a stampede towards the prairie—the refugees arriving in Canada mostly prefer the comfort and energy of cities in the east. But it has caused the price of many of the commodities which drive Saskatchewan’s see-sawing economy to rocket like never before.

 

.................

 

Like most of Canada, the province also suffers from a shortage of workers. No other province has seen such slow population growth. Over the past century the ranks of Saskatchewanites have increased by half to 1.2m while the country’s population has quadrupled. The provincial government has been keen to take as many Ukrainian refugees as it can get. But despite ample jobs, cheap housing and a diaspora, Ukrainians have not come flocking. "

[SharperDingaan]

"The invasion force of 200k soldiers by most estimates has taken over 80k casualties, and the volunteer brigades of 60 year old men they have been fielding lately are hardly going to be enough to replace them."

 

60 year old's are too used to living by their own decisions - they run versus stay and get killed.

Whether their commanders shoot them, or the opposition, they are old enough to recognize that they are still dead. Whereas if they run ... they stay alive, and can easily blend back into civilian hood - smart. And all that captured Russian armament in the field can now instantly resupply Ukrainian forces.

 

Ever since Roman times (& probably before); the traditional defense has been to kill 1 in 10 of the remaining troops (60 year old's) as a warning to the remainder; deserters are shot for a reason. The riposte is to kill the commander before he/she kills you, and run. In the Vietnam era, it was typically a pair of grenades thrown into the commanders fox hole.  

 

This is quickly turning into another Russian Vietnam (post Afghanistan).

Keep squeezing the orange to extract the juice, and eventually the regime collapses - the Ace of Spades, and most of the other high ranking cards in the deck as well. Even in the US, the Vietnam War eventually brought down the administration of the time.

 

SD

 

[Spekulatius]

Reality of the Russian Army. Seaman apprentice, assigned to a tank battalion, 1 week of training.

"I am here because I am retarded."

 

[Spekulatius]

Interesting to watch the mental gymnastics from Tucker Carlson and his goto expert McGregor:

https://www.mediaite.com/tv/tucker-carlsons-ukraine-war-expert-totally-debunked-in-72-hours/

 

Foxnews would fit well into Russian media landscape.

Edited September 12, 2022 by Spekulatius

[no_free_lunch]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

Interesting to watch the mental gymnastics from Tucker Carlson and his goto expert McGregor:

https://www.mediaite.com/tv/tucker-carlsons-ukraine-war-expert-totally-debunked-in-72-hours/

 

Foxnews would fit well into Russian media landscape.

 

Indeed.  Slowly the evidence piles up.  If Ukraine is really only involved because the US is pushing them, why are so many going to their death?  If the equipment is all stolen, how are they holding the entire Russia army back?  If they really have 170k casualties (one claim I read on social media), how do they keep fighting.   The issue I have here is not Tucker but those blindly following him with no idea of Ukraine, it's history and no real interest other than to back their party line.

 

Edited September 12, 2022 by no_free_lunch

[Spekulatius]

Another fall (from a boat this time), another dead Putin confidant:

https://todaytimeslive.com/world/118596.html

 

 

Edited September 13, 2022 by Spekulatius

[Spekulatius]

it's interesting that the Azerbaijan - Armenia conflict has flared up again right along the Ukrainian offensive and I don't think it's coincidence.

 

Armenia has been backed by Russia and Azerbaijan has been backed by Turkey. I think Azerbaijan smelled blood in the water and that's why they attacked Armenia when it became clear that the Ukraine had a huge success with their offensive.

 

The underlying thinking is that Russia is busy and can't help Armenia. As with the Ukraine conflict - Azerbaijan used Turkey's Bayraktar drones to hit the Armenians. Just another case where seemingly unrelated conflicts have an interaction.

 

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/15/azerbaijan-says-71-soldiers-killed-in-armenia-border-clashes

 

 

Another notable fact is that Xi visited Kazakhstan before meeting Putin. I think this visit may have more than a symbolic value because Kazakhstan ahs been distancing themselves from Russia with this Ukraine conflict and Kazakhstan may try to improve the ties to Beijing as a backup so to speak.

 

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-health-japan-china-72f848530e0b16d2cbd80d38e74fda03

 

I think these all are early indications that Putin's empire building (or rebuilding) ambitions are unravelling  due to the attack on Ukraine turning out to be a failure.

[james22]

Sure.

 

Peter Zeihan on the Ramifications of Russian Imperial Decline

 

https://www.battleswarmblog.com/?p=52632

[Xerxes]

Spek,

 

While it is truth that Azerbaijan was heavilly backed by Turkey, Armenia however was not really backed by Russia in its most recent war last year. Russia did not do much to help Armenia, as Putin and the Armenian president didnt see eye to eye. 

 

But yest, the Turkish drone played an outsize role in the 2020-2021 war last year.

 

A captive ally: Why Russia isn’t rushing to Armenia’s aid – European Council on Foreign Relations (ecfr.eu)

[Xerxes]

This Peter Zeihan (i dont know who he is) doesnt understand the Iranian-Russian relationship. They are not allies. They sometimes have shared interest but more often than not, they do not. And in fact Russia has been helping Israel limiting Iranian influence in Syria.

 

Russia is not in Syria for Bashar, it is there for the port of Tartus, and by extension the government that provides that legitimacy. So Bashar is not going anywhere as he is the only one that provides that legitimacy.

 

Peter Zeihan calls this a Russian Alliance. Capital "R" and Capital "A". That is the a typical Western one-dimensional thinking mumbo-jumbo. Russia does not have alliances. It has satraps (Belasarus) and close geopolitcal regional part-time associates when interest aligns (Iran, Turkey etc), "oil world order" part-time associates (Saudi Arabia/OPEC+) and "geopolitical world order/big league" part-time associate (PRC) etc.

 

 

Edited September 16, 2022 by Xerxes

[mcliu]

It's interesting that the West does not provide weapons to Armenia since it is a democratic country being invaded by an autocracy. Aren't there parallels between the Armenia-Azerbaijan and Ukraine-Russia conflicts?

And if the proxy war in Ukraine is about defending democracy, why is EU partnering with Azerbaijan?

https://www.politico.eu/article/the-eu-azerbaijan-gas-deal-is-a-repeat-mistake/

[Dinar]

1 hour ago, mcliu said:

It's interesting that the West does not provide weapons to Armenia since it is a democratic country being invaded by an autocracy. Aren't there parallels between the Armenia-Azerbaijan and Ukraine-Russia conflicts?

And if the proxy war in Ukraine is about defending democracy, why is EU partnering with Azerbaijan?

https://www.politico.eu/article/the-eu-azerbaijan-gas-deal-is-a-repeat-mistake/

These are very good points.  The short answer is that Armenia's allies are Iran and Russia, oh and Azerbaijan has a lot of oil and gas.

[JAK]

2 hours ago, Dinar said:

These are very good points.  The short answer is that Armenia's allies are Iran and Russia, oh and Azerbaijan has a lot of oil and gas.

And on top of that you have the complication of Turkey, a NATO country, actively helping Azerbaijan... Not sure the West wants to go there given Erdogan is trying to distract the unhappy populace by reopening border disputes with Greece (another NATO member), and also has the ability to threatening Europe with refugees. Although I agree the West seems to be unfairly ignoring it. 

[Spekulatius]

45 minutes ago, JAK said:

And on top of that you have the complication of Turkey, a NATO country, actively helping Azerbaijan... Not sure the West wants to go there given Erdogan is trying to distract the unhappy populace by reopening border disputes with Greece (another NATO member), and also has the ability to threatening Europe with refugees. Although I agree the West seems to be unfairly ignoring it. 

Turkey is a NATO ally, but what they are doing with Azerbaijan is not sanctioned by the NATO, its Erdogan going it alone because of Turkey's local interests. Same in Syria and the Kurdistan conflict.

 

Armenia aligned themselves with Russia, perhaps because they felt they had no choice. That means that no help from NATO will be forthcoming however (imagine giving Armenia weapons and they end up being used by Russia in Ukraine?).

 

So this is one of those regional conflicts (there are literally dozens in the world) that are getting fought on and off. According to Putin's thinking, Ukraine should have played out the same way but it did not turn out that way.

 

I also agree with @Xerxes that Zeihan has the Russian Iran relationship wrong. I have paid a little more attention to his youtube videos and while he is pretty good at identifying trends (his specialty are interactions  of demographics/ geography and history) he seems to often paint too broad of a brush and get's nuances wrong, imo.

[shhughes1116]

On 9/11/2022 at 10:23 AM, changegonnacome said:

Yep curious for @shhughes1116 latest take on things….is this a true turning point and what options does Putin have remaining to him now?

 

Yes.  I believe this is a turning point in the war.  As I previously described, the trajectory of manpower for Ukraine is up, and the trajectory of manpower for Russia is down, and this gap is widening.  Each passing day sees more combat-ready Ukrainian troops and fewer combat-ready Russian and Russian proxy troops.  Ukraine is rotating front-line units, and has been doing that for 45-60 days now.  That gives you a sense for how they see their manpower situation along the front.  

 

Five observations about the battlefield:

1.  There are 10k Ukrainian combat troops - a little more than 2 maneuver brigades - that are being trained in the UK.  Their training is coming to an end and will return to Ukraine soon.    

2.  By my estimation, the Ukrainians have another 2-3 maneuver brigades - 12k-18k - that are in Ukraine, have been equipped and trained, but not deployed to the front-lines.  These maneuver brigades probably became a lot more mobile with all of the mechanized equipment captured during the recent Krakiv counter-offensive.  

3. The more capable Russian combat units were re-deployed to Kherson.  They have been fixed there by the Ukrainian's slow-moving, methodical counter-attack.  Because the bridges have been destroyed or heavily damaged, they are unable to be effectively re-supplied, and they are unable to retreat with their heavy equipment.  The troops that would have defended Crimea are instead fighting in Kherson.  They are on the wrong side of the river. 

4. Along the Donbas, the Russians are bleeding themselves dry near/around Bakhmut.  This appears to be the last area where they have the strength to carry out offensive operations.    

5. Winter is coming, and with that, offensive operations will slow.  Maybe another 45 days before the weather starts slowing down operations in Ukraine.     

 

So what are Putin's options?  

 

Realistically, he does not have any non-nuclear options.  

1.   "Hold the line" in Ukraine.  But, the Russian's don't have enough troops to defend the Donbas front, the Zaporizhzhia front, and the Kherson front.  They are vulnerable in each of these places, and Ukraine can pick and choose which area to exploit.  And by my estimation, the Ukrainians have the American equivalent of an overstrength armored Division waiting in reserve, perfect for exploiting a deep breakthrough in any of these three fronts. 

2.  "Conquer more land in Ukraine in order to force Kyiv to capitulate"  The Russians don't have enough troops to force a breakthrough on any of these three fronts. 

3.  "Mobilize for a holy war in Ukraine." If he calls for a general mobilization, I think he likely gets f**ked by a general uprising.

4. "Claim that de-nazification was successful and retreat/leave."  If he leaves/retreats, I think he get's f**ked by the even more extreme Russian nationalists/fascists. 

5.  "Blackmail Europeans with nat gas."  Putin hopes for an apocalyptic winter in Europe, and hopes gas prices blow through the roof, forcing European governments to make nice with Russia and stop arming Ukraine.  Hope is not a valid investment strategy, and is definitely not a valid military strategy.     

6.  "Go nuclear."  Claim that Russian's territory is threatened by Ukrainian attacks on Donestsk and Luhansk, and utilize multiple tactical nukes in Ukraine.  

 

I think 1-4 are unlikely. 

 

I think Putin will hope for #5, but this won't be successful because he underestimates the resolve of European governments to support Ukraine.    

 

That leaves Putin with #6 - tactical nukes.  I believe Putin will try to use tactical nukes in Ukraine because he believes NATO will not react to this.  I don't know what would prevent this from happening. 

- Historically a lone rational actor in the Russian Armed Forces has prevented nuclear escalation, but this is a very different situation from those historical precedents. 

- Given how Ukraine has acquitted themselves in this war, the West could secretly arm Ukraine will multiple nuclear weapons, and tell Putin that Ukraine will be given the green-light to use these nuclear weapons in response to any nuclear provocation from Russia.  but this would open Pandora's box for future nuclear proliferation.  

 

If Putin does not use tactical nukes, then I think Ukraine defeats the Russians on the battlefield while Putin watches helplessly.    

[changegonnacome]

@shhughes1116 really appreciate you taking the time to outline your thoughts

 

Seems like there may be an emerging window coming up where negotiations have a shot at success & where everybody has an off-ramp which allows some victory to be claimed.....Ukraine, for the first time in the war, is on the front foot they can come to a peace deal from a position of strength & claim a 'win'.......Russia is not yet fully humiliated (but possibly is on the pathway to being) and perhaps some de-nazification 'win' could be claimed now to allow a ceasing of the 'special operation'........this winter is also the last where Russia has so much leverage over Europe. Best to use that leverage now before its gone and get some sanctions peeled off in exchange for a structured with-drawl. If things progress much further as you've outlined Russia/Putin will become increasingly humiliated and the possible off ramps for them start to twindle. 

 

Very curious to see how this plays.....it hinges, as it has for a long, on wether Putin is a rational actor or one who's mind has been turned to swiss cheese through dreams of an old Russian empire that doesnt exisit anymore except in the paintings that hang in Kremlin.

[Spekulatius]

17 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

@shhughes1116 really appreciate you taking the time to outline your thoughts

 

Seems like there may be an emerging window coming up where negotiations have a shot at success & where everybody has an off-ramp which allows some victory to be claimed.....Ukraine, for the first time in the war, is on the front foot they can come to a peace deal from a position of strength & claim a 'win'.......Russia is not yet fully humiliated (but possibly is on the pathway to being) and perhaps some de-nazification 'win' could be claimed now to allow a ceasing of the 'special operation'........this winter is also the last where Russia has so much leverage over Europe. Best to use that leverage now before its gone and get some sanctions peeled off in exchange for a structured with-drawl. If things progress much further as you've outlined Russia/Putin will become increasingly humiliated and the possible off ramps for them start to twindle. 

 

Very curious to see how this plays.....it hinges, as it has for a long, on wether Putin is a rational actor or one who's mind has been turned to swiss cheese through dreams of an old Russian empire that doesnt exisit anymore except in the paintings that hang in Kremlin.

I think negotiations are at this point are unlikely to lead to anything. There is no willingness from either side to negotiate.

 

Both Putin and Zelensky stated this very recently.