Political Posts

[Xerxes]

At least, it will no longer be illegal to say war … though you would still be arrested I reckon. 
 

unrelated just saw this. There are a lot of coverage about Russia running out of tanks etc. Our NATO inventories are 1/3 empty since the war started. 
 

 

[no_free_lunch]

One of the motivation for lend lease in the 30s was to provide the defense industry the opportunity to scale up.  Hopefully that is now happening in NATO countries.  I don't know how to weight it all out and certainly lack of equipment and stock is risky but I know from my investing that companies usually end up constrained by demand not supply. Just a question of how quickly they can scale. 

Edited May 4, 2022 by no_free_lunch

[rkbabang]

On 5/3/2022 at 12:03 PM, Xerxes said:

"War is a racket" book was actually on my to read list since 2010. Sadly, I have not read it yet.

 

War Is A Racket: Original Edition : Butler, Smedley D: Books - Amazon 

Worth the read.  It is also very short and quick to read, so definitely worth it.  $0.99 for Kindle version, for another $1.95 they will through in the audiobook version (I'm not sure if you have to have an audible membership or not to see that). 

https://www.amazon.com/War-Racket-Smedley-Butler-ebook/dp/B0046W7MEA

Also I think you can download the pdf for free if you search around for it.

 

[Castanza]

https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/ukraines-military-advantage-and-russias-stark-choices/

 

Solid Podcast in general, but the Ukraine Russia coverage has been good

[ValueArb]

On 5/4/2022 at 8:08 AM, Xerxes said:

At least, it will no longer be illegal to say war … though you would still be arrested I reckon. 
 

unrelated just saw this. There are a lot of coverage about Russia running out of tanks etc. Our NATO inventories are 1/3 empty since the war started. 
 

 

 

 

We are at war. We are using our extra inventory in the right place, while keeping more than enough for any reasonable risks that appears.

[no_free_lunch]

Interesting video from Russia.  It appears legit to me.  On this talk show, the guest is now openly talking about the strength of Ukraine's position, in particular with general mobilization and enhanced weapons from NATO members.  He then calls into question the ability of Russia to generate a successful army from conscripts.  Possible I am getting snowed by western propaganda but I haven't seen anything like this since the war started.  Is Russia starting to signal position change?  I don't think they were prepared for the kind of war, maybe this is how they start to wind it down.  Still far from over but encouraging.

 

 

Edited May 17, 2022 by no_free_lunch

[lnofeisone]

There was another video on Telegram where a blogger was embedded with a column that got wiped out crossing the bridge and the blogger was furious.

 

In other news Azov battalion that held Azovstal is now surrendering. Rumor in russian channels is that all injured will go to Russia first and then be exchanged for russian POWs. The remainder of the defenders will be taken as POWs by Russia. I am also starting to think that this is now a precursor to potential de-escalation. Russia keeps what it got and Ukraine is largely in tact. Unclear what that means for the remaining geopolitics, oil, etc. 

[Pelagic]

Little background thread on the commentator in the video. I'm actually surprised there's that much difference of opinion tolerated on Russian TV, although there's also the argument he's setting the stage for easing tensions.

 

 

[no_free_lunch]

Thanks Pelagic.   I knew he must have had military experience at a senior level.  He is very sober and fact based.

 

Inofeisone, Russia just needs to get out of Ukraine altogether.  Ukraine wants all it's stolen territory and people back.  This is like an abusive relationship, it's over, they need to GTFO.  How many Ukrainian soldiers have to die people keep asking, but how many Russian soldiers is that country prepared to squander.   How long is Russia prepared to have sanctions on.  Sooner or later the price of oil will tank and then what will they have.

Edited May 17, 2022 by no_free_lunch

[aws]

It is interesting how much Putin has toned down the escalation, with no May 9th announcement, and a relatively muted reaction to the NATO news. And now with the presumable prisoner exchange in Azovstal it does look like Putin is looking for an offramp, but I just don't see how he gets it. Ukraine isn't just going to give Russia the territory it is currently holding, and with the success in pushing Russia back plus more aid incoming they are likely to want at the very least pre-2022 borders.

[lnofeisone]

@no_free_lunch I subscribe to the idea that Russia should be out of Ukraine and it is starting to look like Putin is looking for de-escalation. I can also appreciate Russia's historical claim but there are non-military options to resolve this. What I don't believe is that this will be settled to pre-2022 borders. I think the reality on the ground is somewhere in-between of what western media and Russian media portray. 

 

As far as oil and its price, I don't think it will collapse anytime soon. Russian oil is now being blended with other oil (51 non-Russian/49Russian) and it's now magically a non-Russian oil. Even Shell is doing it. So money is still being made. Going through the summer is going to be tough but winter for Europe is likely to be brutal without Russian energy. 

[Viking]

It is simply incredible what an unmitigated disaster the Ukraine war is for Russia. And it is getting worse with each passing day.
1.) A complete military failure that is likely to get worse. It looks today like Ukraine is actually going to WIN THE WAR. this was unthinkable at the beginning. The Russian military has been completely exposed. It has been destroyed on the inside by corruption.

2.) A complete political failure - if Ukraine didn’t exist as a national identity (Putin’s claim) pre-war, it certainly has an exceptionally strong national identity today… fighting a successful war against a much stronger adversary forges ‘national identity’ like nothing else. 44 million Ukrainians now hate Russians with a passion that is going to burn for generations.

3.) NATO is more united, relevant and stronger than it has been in decades. It is re-arming. Finland and Sweden are joining; unthinkable for 80 years. A couple of years ago many were discussing the very existence of NATO.

4.) the Russian economy is toast. It will take months/years to bite. But all of Russia is already paying and going to pay a heavy, heavy price. Lots of the best and the brightest have left the country. From an economic perspective, Russia is now effectively a vassal state of China (Xi is likely smiling over this outcome).

5.) Putin is starting to look impotent. His image, carefully constructed over decades, has been completely shredded - Europe/internationally for now. As Russian’s learn of the catastrophe in the coming months Putin’s standing in Russia will also come down, and possibly by a large amount. Big hat no cattle. Not a good place for a  dictator to be. 

 

Edited May 17, 2022 by Viking

[james22]

1 minute ago, Viking said:

44 million Ukrainians now hate Russians with a passion that is going to burn for generations.

 

You'd think. But that may be an assumption only a citizen of a democracy would make?

 

I was pretty surprised when visiting Tbilisi several years ago when a girl I met said I'd love the Russian girls who visited Georgia.

As she'd just shared that her brother had fought against the Russians when they invaded ten years earlier.

When I asked her about it, she said no one held individuals responsible for their governments.

[Spekulatius]

I think in the long run, the only way to keep Ukraine safe is to admit them to the NATO. That's the end game here, Essentially they are already in through the back door. Maybe not as a full member, but through contractual terms with individual members providing weapons, intelligence and with the EU membership also providing economic aid (which will be needed for many years.

 

There simply is no way the Ukraine remains neutral after all this. Besides nuclear saber rattling, there is nothing Putin can do about it.

[Xerxes]

Viking

The enemy gets a vote too.  
 

Ukrainian military victory on the field is one thing, getting to a ceasefire, discussing the state of borders, needs the other side on the table being willing too. 
 

This could easily be a de-escalating phase, but the actual state of war can go on for years. it is no peace, if resident in Kiev would need to look out for that random ballistic/cruise missile coming their way. 
 

After the end of the Korean War, United States and People Republic of China remained in a state of war for 20 years until the Kissinger/Nixon pivot. Never mind that today Russia and Japan are technically not closed out their conflict from WW2 with a peace treaty. Still pending …

[Xerxes]

2 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

I think in the long run, the only way to keep Ukraine safe is to admit them to the NATO. That's the end game here, Essentially they are already in through the back door. Maybe not as a full member, but through contractual terms with individual members providing weapons, intelligence and with the EU membership also providing economic aid (which will be needed for many years.

 

There simply is no way the Ukraine remains neutral after all this. Besides nuclear saber rattling, there is nothing Putin can do about it.

disagree. 
 

Russia is in conflict and has resources in Ukraine. Admitting Ukraine to NATO would mean a formal immediate declaration/state of war against Russia. Not talking nuclear war here and don’t mean to suggest Russia’ convention forces can do anything. 
 

Nonetheless are we ready to send your sons and daughters in the trenches in the Eastern Europe to fight and to die.

[Xerxes]

for those of you that are familiar with the history of Mongol empire in Russia and the Golden Horde, … there is potential (I think) 40 years from now for Ukraine to become to Russia what the Duchy of Moscow became to the Golden Horde  

[Viking]

1 hour ago, james22 said:

 

You'd think. But that may be an assumption only a citizen of a democracy would make?

 

I was pretty surprised when visiting Tbilisi several years ago when a girl I met said I'd love the Russian girls who visited Georgia.

As she'd just shared that her brother had fought against the Russians when they invaded ten years earlier.

When I asked her about it, she said no one held individuals responsible for their governments.

@james22 good point. I think magnitude matters. A lot. It also matters who wins (the victor controls the narrative). Look at all the death and destruction going on in Ukraine today. How many people have died? Maimed for life. Civilians deaths? Children deaths and maiming? Cities obliterated. The Russians are doing what Russians do… their are being vicious and exacting maximum pain. And it is not over. 
 

If the brother of the girl you met had been killed by Russians do you think she would have a different perspective? I watched a video of a Ukrainian father who said if his child was killed in the war he would spend the rest of his life killing Russians. I don’t think he is an outlyer.

 

i doubt we see Russian’s vacationing in Ukraine any time soon UNLESS we see regime change in Russia - followed by significant policy change (they get out of Ukraine’s shorts).

Edited May 17, 2022 by Viking

[Viking]

1 hour ago, Xerxes said:

Viking

The enemy gets a vote too.  
 

Ukrainian military victory on the field is one thing, getting to a ceasefire, discussing the state of borders, needs the other side on the table being willing too. 
 

This could easily be a de-escalating phase, but the actual state of war can go on for years. it is no peace, if resident in Kiev would need to look out for that random ballistic/cruise missile coming their way. 
 

After the end of the Korean War, United States and People Republic of China remained in a state of war for 20 years until the Kissinger/Nixon pivot. Never mind that today Russia and Japan are technically not closed out their conflict from WW2 with a peace treaty. Still pending …

@Xerxes i agree it is difficult to see how this situation ultimately is resolved. Stalemate looks like the most likely outcome to me.

 

Unless Ukraine is stronger than we think. And Russia is weaker than we think, even today. There is a chance we could see Ukraine actually push Russia out of Ukraine. 

Edited May 17, 2022 by Viking

[james22]

19 minutes ago, Viking said:

I think magnitude matters. A lot.

 

No doubt. And the war's outcome as well, of course.

 

But still hard to hate an unwilling 19yo conscript.

 

The 40yo war criminal is another thing.

[no_free_lunch]

4 hours ago, lnofeisone said:

@no_free_lunch I subscribe to the idea that Russia should be out of Ukraine and it is starting to look like Putin is looking for de-escalation. I can also appreciate Russia's historical claim but there are non-military options to resolve this. What I don't believe is that this will be settled to pre-2022 borders. I think the reality on the ground is somewhere in-between of what western media and Russian media portray. 

 

As far as oil and its price, I don't think it will collapse anytime soon. Russian oil is now being blended with other oil (51 non-Russian/49Russian) and it's now magically a non-Russian oil. Even Shell is doing it. So money is still being made. Going through the summer is going to be tough but winter for Europe is likely to be brutal without Russian energy. 

 

On the oil I meant that the commodity globally will eventually lose value.  We just went through a mammoth oil bust and we will have another one.  Let's see how Russia does when that happens.

Edited May 17, 2022 by no_free_lunch

[no_free_lunch]

2 hours ago, Viking said:

@Xerxes i agree it is difficult to see how this situation ultimately is resolved. Stalemate looks like the most likely outcome to me.

 

Unless Ukraine is stronger than we think. And Russia is weaker than we think, even today. There is a chance we could see Ukraine actually push Russia out of Ukraine. 

 

I am certainly no military expert but I think if the NATO countries can supply the arms then Ukraine can push them back, at least to pre-invasion borders.   So Russia would still control Crimea and the far eastern provinces. 

 

It seems that NATO can produce technologically superior weapons.  This should help to offset the manpower advantage Russia has.   As far as losses, Russia has a much larger base but this is an existential threat to Ukraine and just a resource grab for Russia.  It seems Ukraine is more willing to sacrifice in this holy war and in contrast it seems by sacrificing their people Russia risks revolution.

 

Ultimately I am counting on the war just not being worth the huge economic cost for Russia .  NATO is so much richer than Russia, somewhere around 20 times the GDP.  The longer they draw this war out the more it costs Russia economically while for NATO they can just eat it.  If NATO can turn this into an economic war (hint: they have), it's Russia's to lose.

 

 

Edited May 17, 2022 by no_free_lunch

[Spekulatius]

I think it's  possible but would require a long time. it is possible, if the Ukrainian army's weapons are completely replaced and they are trained by western weapons. the western weapons are so superior to what Russian have, it's almost laughable. Think about the precision amo alone. the Russians barely have any. NATO has precision artillery that can put a 155mm round on top of you car in a parking lot 50km away.

 

NATO just needs to make it abundantly clear that they support Ukraine with all they need in term of weapons and the economy. So as long as Ukraine is willing to fight, there is just no way Russia can win. They can choose to run their army and eventually conscripts into a meatgrinder in Ukraine and loose 100k eventually 200K people for what exactly?

 

That also sends a nice message to China regarding Taiwan. Sure all this is expensive, but it is cheaper to deal with Hitler reincarnations doing their biding down the road.

 

 

Edit - found this clip regarding precision ammo tests with 65km reach:

Would love some of these bad boys being put to use in Ukraine actually.

Edited May 17, 2022 by Spekulatius

[cubsfan]

One of the real tragedies of this event will be the nuking up of the world. The US has ceded 

their traditional role of protecting allies through deterrence. If you are a neighbor of China, 

Iran or Russia - you have to be terrified that the weak administration of the US is not going

to be there for you.  Let's hope NATO fills the void for Europe - but countries like Japan,

Saudi Arabia, Phillipines, Taiwan, Israel will not let a weak US threaten their existence.

 

That's going to be the permanent change of this Russia/Ukraine disaster: Nuclear proliferation.

Edited May 17, 2022 by cubsfan

[John Hjorth]

Mike,

 

I hope you care to elaborate on "nuking up" in your post above.