Political Posts

[Blugolds]

17 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

Remember the Falklands War?

The sinking of the HMS Sheffield made the Exocet missile famous (and sold hundreds). Sink one of the larger Russian sea-borne cruise missile launchers, in a single strike, and you too will sell hundreds of these. Your existing inventory will also instantly double/triple in value on the back market - and the launch of that missile ..... could come from anywhere.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/oct/15/revealed-full-story-behind-sinking-of-falklands-warship-hms-sheffield    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exocet

 

The updated version of the 'Warthog' is the 'Gunslinger', a remote controlled drone. One has to assume that there are at a least a few 'Beta' versions about, with similar weaponry, that need to 'prove concept' - on ideally, live targets. Tank killers, built for open land killing fields, beaming back simultaneous video? The more sophisticated versions hunting people?

 

Doesn't look good for the conscripts.

 

SD

 

Was watching some things about new tech in weaponry and it was really interesting. The use of drones is quickly becoming the new preferred fighting ability. I remember years ago seeing a movie that had a drone "swarm" that would attack...hundreds of bird sized drones that acted as a collective seeking out targets, both human or mechanized and detonating. I remember thinking it was scary and how would you stop it, short of some kind of EMP etc...seemed futuristic at the time but from what I have seen now it is either available or not far off. 

 

 

 

 

[SharperDingaan]

It is s simple thing to link AI facial recognition to a digital feed from a drone.

Thereafter, it's just whether execution is automatic or subject to a manual oversight.

 

In the Ukraine? Maybe it's a drone swarm over a munitions/fuel convoy/dump.

Alternatively, an airborne cannon that can quickly be rearmed in the field. It doesn't have to look pretty, it just needs to demonstrate proof of concept, and be able to work in the dark.

 

SD

[no_free_lunch]

I think tank killer swarms could probably be built today using commercial hardware and small teams.  You can buy ones today for the $5k range that can fly 100 kmph and stay aloft for hours.  They already have obstacle avoidance, autopilot and object tracking.  Maybe just a little programming required to recognize mil targetsband an attack mode but it already has the basic setup via object follow features.   There are some issues around GPS jamming and low light that need effort but it all has solutions available.

 

I think humans can be hunted with the same or similar it's just still a bit expensive for that use case given the limited Ukrainian budget. 

 

[Spekulatius]

22 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:

I think tank killer swarms could probably be built today using commercial hardware and small teams.  You can buy ones today for the $5k range that can fly 100 kmph and stay aloft for hours.  They already have obstacle avoidance, autopilot and object tracking.  Maybe just a little programming required to recognize mil targetsband an attack mode but it already has the basic setup via object follow features.   There are some issues around GPS jamming and low light that need effort but it all has solutions available.

 

I think humans can be hunted with the same or similar it's just still a bit expensive for that use case given the limited Ukrainian budget. 

 

Well, what you describe are essentially the Switchblade suicide drones. The Israelis (Elbit) have a similar design, I believe.

Edited April 12, 2022 by Spekulatius

[Aurel]

21 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

I know for fact that the Maxar pics we are seeing in newsreels are not state of the art. The real mil grade surveillance is much better than that using high resolution optics, IR and what not. State of the art satellite imagery can likely read a license plate if it points upwards.

Do you have good sources on this topic? I am quite interested in this topic and would appreciate some recommendations.

[Spekulatius]

19 minutes ago, Aurel said:

Do you have good sources on this topic? I am quite interested in this topic and would appreciate some recommendations.

I don't. I do work in the industry and knew some people who worked on high end drones and satellite optics specifically a while ago. I am sure there is some material out there, but the exact capabilities are certainly classified.

[SharperDingaan]

Think weapons and operators as free - a simple $ investment in the brand.

Simple case: Cannon + supersonic ammunition on a tripod, supported by X rotors. Military grade vision/feeds, 60-90 minute battery life. Pops up, fires its burst, pops down; sound hits the target after the bullets do. Rearmed with new ammunition and battery packs, in the field. Recharge the batteries off solar.

 

Simpler case: Drone swarm carrying magnetic limpid mines. A few attack, most settle amongst the dead tanks and switch off. A while later, switch back on, deposit the mine over live tank engines/magazines, fly home. Mines go off, drones rearm with new mines/battery packs in the field.

 

Tanks, artillery, and choppers die. In large quantities, and for cheap.

 

SD

Edited April 12, 2022 by SharperDingaan

[Spekulatius]

7 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

Think weapons and operators as free - a simple $ investment in the brand.

Simple case: Cannon + supersonic ammunition on a tripod, supported by X rotors. Military grade vision/feeds, 60-90 minute battery life. Pops up, fires its burst, pops down; sound hits the target after the bullets do. Rearmed with new ammunition and battery packs, in the field. Recharge the batteries off solar.

 

Simpler case: Drone swarm carrying magnetic limpid mines. A few attack, most settle amongst the dead tanks and switch off. A while later, switch back on, deposit the mine over live tank engines/magazines, fly home. Mines go off, drones rearm with new mines/battery packs in the field.

 

Tanks, artillery, and choppers die. In large quantities, and for cheap.

 

SD

I suggest a consumption based model. Order Satellite images for free - its on you to identify target  - and order the drone strike with a button. Pay once you see the destroyed target.

[no_free_lunch]

45 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Well, what you describe are essentially the Switchblade suicide drones. The Israelis (Elbit) have a similar design, I believe.

Yes.  I am just suggesting there is an option to develop similar tech outside the mil industrial complex.  Similar but cruder end product and in much higher volumes.  It's a bit of a numbers game and you could see Ukraine getting 10s of thousands with this homegrown method.

[Spekulatius]

46 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:

Yes.  I am just suggesting there is an option to develop similar tech outside the mil industrial complex.  Similar but cruder end product and in much higher volumes.  It's a bit of a numbers game and you could see Ukraine getting 10s of thousands with this homegrown method.

Switch blades drones are not that expensive - about $6K/ unit. High end consumer drones are 3K and are worse for this purpose (slower, don't have payload, not compatible with other weapon systems). Not everything made for the military is expensive. You would be surprised how little GPS controlled glide bombs cost - I think it's a only few thousand $. That's a lot of bang for the buck.

[Blugolds]

25 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Switch blades drones are not that expensive - about $6K/ unit. High end consumer drones are 3K and are worse for this purpose (slower, don't have payload, not compatible with other weapon systems). Not everything made for the military is expensive. You would be surprised how little GPS controlled glide bombs cost - I think it's a only few thousand $. That's a lot of bang for the buck.

 

I dont know what the max payload for a drone is...but thats much cheaper than a Javelin...I think I saw prices on those of $100k for the launcher and $78k for the missile. Assuming Stingers are comparable. 

[Pelagic]

23 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Switch blades drones are not that expensive - about $6K/ unit. High end consumer drones are 3K and are worse for this purpose (slower, don't have payload, not compatible with other weapon systems). Not everything made for the military is expensive. You would be surprised how little GPS controlled glide bombs cost - I think it's a only few thousand $. That's a lot of bang for the buck.

 

To clarify, the smaller Switchblade 300 is around that $6k price. The larger 600 version is in the $50 to $70k range.

 

It does seem the US and Western nations have vastly underestimated the effectiveness of small drones. Perhaps because their own precision guided munitions are relatively cheap and very effective they presumed that any near-peer adversary would have similar capabilities. And Western nations have also likely invested a lot in anti-drone training and countermeasure systems that limit the effectiveness of small drones against their forces. And again probably thought near-peer adversaries like China and Russia had similar training and capabilities.

 

The Switchblades for instance were primarily designed for use by special operations forces giving them additional range for strikes on high value targets. They were never produced in the kind of numbers that would make them a primary offensive weapon simply because the US had almost limitless supplies of better options.

 

Now we're seeing commercial drones dropping modified mortar rounds on targets of opportunity and the defense sector is salivating at the opportunity to sell their own "better" versions to the military. I'd imagine we're going to have a number of systems similar to the Switchblade available soon.

[Spekulatius]

Russian drone breakdown. Has a Canon SLR for optics. No Russian without a bottle. LOL:

@Pelagic I agree one drone effectiveness. I think the Azerbaidzan - Armenian war showed already how effective relatively cheap drones are.

 

Stingers and Javelins are much more complex than these loitering drones and they have a rocket propulsion, so much faster. they can take a 50-$100M jet fighter, so a 50-100K price tag may actually be a good value.

 

The Ukrainian Stugna anti tank missile which is seen in a lot of Ukrainian clips is wire controlled (80's technology basically) and allegedly costs $20K as another point of reference.

[elliott]

some comment suggest that Putin may not "survive" this war

 

any realistic contenders at this point? I wonder if whatever group seizes power post putin is more agreeable to the West or more aggressive

 

 

 

[Blugolds]

1 hour ago, elliott said:

some comment suggest that Putin may not "survive" this war

 

any realistic contenders at this point? I wonder if whatever group seizes power post putin is more agreeable to the West or more aggressive

 

 

 

 

Be interesting to know (truly) how much support Navalny has in Russia...I dont know that he would have enough support from the powers that be to actually be released from prison and put in power..but his interviews etc that I have seen, he seems like a pretty reasonable guy. I think he would be more agreeable as his entire platform was basically democracy and an end to the corruption, honestly from what I saw I would be happy for the Russian people if he got his chance. 

[lnofeisone]

4 hours ago, Blugolds11 said:

 

Be interesting to know (truly) how much support Navalny has in Russia...I dont know that he would have enough support from the powers that be to actually be released from prison and put in power..but his interviews etc that I have seen, he seems like a pretty reasonable guy. I think he would be more agreeable as his entire platform was basically democracy and an end to the corruption, honestly from what I saw I would be happy for the Russian people if he got his chance. 

I could never understand Navalny. I've watched his evolution for the last 15 years or so (my mom is a huge supporter all the way from Brighton Beach), including a video of him alluding that people from Asian (bordering Russia) countries are cockroaches and should be shot (and then he recommends a pistol). It seems that he shared many positions with Putin and only in the last 5-10 years started to diverge, taking anti-Putin positions (e.g., being pro gray marriage). He never denounced his previous positions so feels like DIS where he perpetually pisses off both sides and nobody trusts him. My personal view is that he is a populist and will say anything to stay relevant. His strongest points are that 1) he isn't Putin and 2) he's pissed off Putin so odds are he is doing something right. Neither are enough to convince me that he is a good guy. 

[Spekulatius]

13 hours ago, Blugolds11 said:

 

Be interesting to know (truly) how much support Navalny has in Russia...I dont know that he would have enough support from the powers that be to actually be released from prison and put in power..but his interviews etc that I have seen, he seems like a pretty reasonable guy. I think he would be more agreeable as his entire platform was basically democracy and an end to the corruption, honestly from what I saw I would be happy for the Russian people if he got his chance. 

Navalny is irrelevant, Imo. I don’t think he makes a difference.

 

There seems to be a documentary out that is going to stream on HBO:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Navalny_(film)

[Blugolds]

10 hours ago, lnofeisone said:

I could never understand Navalny. I've watched his evolution for the last 15 years or so (my mom is a huge supporter all the way from Brighton Beach), including a video of him alluding that people from Asian (bordering Russia) countries are cockroaches and should be shot (and then he recommends a pistol). It seems that he shared many positions with Putin and only in the last 5-10 years started to diverge, taking anti-Putin positions (e.g., being pro gray marriage). He never denounced his previous positions so feels like DIS where he perpetually pisses off both sides and nobody trusts him. My personal view is that he is a populist and will say anything to stay relevant. His strongest points are that 1) he isn't Putin and 2) he's pissed off Putin so odds are he is doing something right. Neither are enough to convince me that he is a good guy. 

 

Wow, had no clue, I never looked into him really, I think I saw one video that he made discussing how Putin was corrupt and stealing money from the Russian people to build his mega compound mansion etc. Seemed like he was against the cronyism, seemed like a decent guy in the video but perhaps that wasnt a good representation of the man. Still might not be Putin 2.0 but maybe just a different version of the same. I guess I probably bought into your 2nd point, anyone who pisses off putin enough to have an assassin squad sent to poison him has gotta be a little closer to the right track.

 

This is part of the video:

 

 

 

Edited April 13, 2022 by Blugolds11

[SharperDingaan]

This is Russia.

All that is certain, is that change, when it comes, will be both swift and brutal (as his 'supporters' will need to be rapidly terminated as well). The well-worn path by many a future dictator, is a supporter suddenly becoming an assassin, with bounty payments offered, to help the successor get up and running.

 

Thing is; there can only be one successor, and 'president for life' has a different meaning. Game theory typically favors the 'next in line', and not the initiator; hence everything remains 'stable', until suddenly it isn't, and chaos prevails for a period as the old 'helper network', makes way for the new. Initiation, sets off a chain of events, that successors have to survive. Failure is a pine box.

 

As the return has to be worth the risk, every existing dictator has a 'grace period'.

Fail in the Ukraine, and Putin very likely enters it. Whether dead via 'regime change', or dead via 'war crime prosecution', the outcome is still 'dead' - but he lives longer if he focuses on the former.

 

The man is very good at what he does, but everybody eventually get 'old'. 

Our own view is that China is the king-maker. Trigger being a threat to turn off access to the Chinese banking system; but until then, why work the orange when you are already getting its juice?

 

SD

 

[Gregmal]

The real winner of the war is graphic t shirt, bumper sticker and flag makers. Nothing says go get em like virtue signaling Americans. 
 

interesting question, there’s people with slogans saying “we stand with Ukraine”. That’s nice, but, does it make any difference. What if it said “we don’t stand with Ukraine”? Any difference? So if no to both, what’s the point? Last I checked we still weren’t REALLY doing anything to actually help. 

[no_free_lunch]

19 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

The real winner of the war is graphic t shirt, bumper sticker and flag makers. Nothing says go get em like virtue signaling Americans. 
 

interesting question, there’s people with slogans saying “we stand with Ukraine”. That’s nice, but, does it make any difference. What if it said “we don’t stand with Ukraine”? Any difference? So if no to both, what’s the point? Last I checked we still weren’t REALLY doing anything to actually help.

The US has donated 2000 javelin AA missiles and 7000 ATGMs.  Plus tens of thousands of rifles and body armor sets.  I really doubt the offensive would have been halted without that.

 

You like to play devils advocate which is supremely useful in investing but not as useful in geopolitics when lives are on the line. 

 

Regardless, I stand with Ukraine. 

[Spekulatius]

20 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:

The US has donated 2000 javelin AA missiles and 7000 ATGMs.  Plus tens of thousands of rifles and body armor sets.  I really doubt the offensive would have been halted without that.

 

You like to play devils advocate which is supremely useful in investing but not as useful in geopolitics when lives are on the line. 

 

Regardless, I stand with Ukraine. 

I agree. The very real aid that the US and the Europeans gave to the Ukraine is changing the outcome.

I also think that dumping the Russian NG in the long run will change energy policy. This is not virtue signaling.

 

The US has fought many wars and some were worth fighting and other were not. This one is worth fighting, imo.

[Gregmal]

I am always curious about psychology. And its bemused me a little bit over the past couple weeks seeing all the flags, bumper stickers, and whatnot. It doesnt serve any purpose that means anything towards an outcome, and in a way, kind of says something about the person. Im not totally sure what, and obviously it can differ person to person, but essentially, they are doing something that is totally useless. It is no different than having a Yankees sticker on your car. Whether you have the sticker or not, it has no bearing on whether or not they beat the Red Sox. But everyone who sees your car thinks..."that guys a sports fanatic".

 

Disclosure I am not a flag flyer or sticker toter so maybe Im just missing something.  

[no_free_lunch]

I agree that you need to back it with something.  I back my statements with donations of goods to the refugees in my city , yes they are here, and dollars to Ukrainian army.

 

Ultimately it comes down to, war has a critical psychology element. This is why Nazi's had swastika, Russia has Z.  The least we can do is have a stand with Ukraine.  People need to keep their resolve when they see prices going up and when there are nuclear threats from Russia.  Otherwise it becomes Vietnam and why do we have to make sacrifices. 

[Spekulatius]

45 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:

I agree that you need to back it with something.  I back my statements with donations of goods to the refugees in my city , yes they are here, and dollars to Ukrainian army.

 

Ultimately it comes down to, war has a critical psychology element. This is why Nazi's had swastika, Russia has Z.  The least we can do is have a stand with Ukraine.  People need to keep their resolve when they see prices going up and when there are nuclear threats from Russia.  Otherwise it becomes Vietnam and why do we have to make sacrifices. 

Yes, the psychological aspect should not be underrated. In fact if anything , it has caught many by surprise that people actually do care (just read the early comments here) about Ukraine. Politicians see this too and adjust accordingly. Classical reflexivity at work here - perception can change the outcome.

 

This applies to investing and even more so to politics or even wars.