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The Death Knell of Crypto!


Parsad

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I know I've said this before, but read "The Bitcoin Standard" and "The Fiat Standard".

 

Money has always been the hardest thing to create, easily transported, fungible, divisible, and durable.  Gold served that purpose for a long time, it has all of those properties except ease of transport.  Governments created fiat which is even easier to transport, but lacks the "hard to create" property.   BTC solves all of those problems.  2nd layer solutions will solve the speed/cost of small transactions problems.  Only a small fraction of the planet uses BTC as money right now, most people are just speculating, so of course it is volatile.   Eventually if adapted by a large portion of the population as money it will stabilize at a value hundreds of times what it is now.  If that never happens it won't. 

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1 hour ago, rkbabang said:

I know I've said this before, but read "The Bitcoin Standard" and "The Fiat Standard".

 

Money has always been the hardest thing to create, easily transported, fungible, divisible, and durable.  Gold served that purpose for a long time, it has all of those properties except ease of transport.  Governments created fiat which is even easier to transport, but lacks the "hard to create" property.   BTC solves all of those problems.  2nd layer solutions will solve the speed/cost of small transactions problems.  Only a small fraction of the planet uses BTC as money right now, most people are just speculating, so of course it is volatile.   Eventually if adapted by a large portion of the population as money it will stabilize at a value hundreds of times what it is now.  If that never happens it won't. 

 

There is nothing backing BTC...no utility, no tax revenues, no assets, no gold, no fiat currency...only scarcity.  If something is scarce, but has no utility and value...what is it worth?  How much would you pay for peanut shells if there were no peanuts?  But even peanut shells has some use as ground up filler, compost, etc.  BTC has nothing...nada, zilch, zero value or utility.  

 

Blockchain is real!  It will be the next wave of disruption over the next 20 years.  There will be future digital currencies using blockchain.  I just don't see the current batch being the winner, and if there is one, it's probably something that hasn't been created yet or no one is paying attention to. 

 

But hey, I thought rap music was a fad back in the 90's!  🙂  Cheers! 

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12 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

There is nothing backing BTC...no utility, no tax revenues, no assets, no gold, no fiat currency...only scarcity.  If something is scarce, but has no utility and value...what is it worth?  How much would you pay for peanut shells if there were no peanuts?  But even peanut shells has some use as ground up filler, compost, etc.  BTC has nothing...nada, zilch, zero value or utility.  

 

Blockchain is real!  It will be the next wave of disruption over the next 20 years.  There will be future digital currencies using blockchain.  I just don't see the current batch being the winner, and if there is one, it's probably something that hasn't been created yet or no one is paying attention to. 

 

But hey, I thought rap music was a fad back in the 90's!  🙂  Cheers! 

 

 

What backs gold?  What backed shells or colored rocks when people used that for money?   Money needs to have utility as money.  Which means scarcity, divisibility, very difficult to create more (BTC is almost impossible to create more), transportability, durability (doesn't break, rust, deteriorate, rot, etc over time), and verifiability against fakes.  Gold checked all of those boxes except for transportability once global international trade became a thing.   BTC checks all of those boxes and is better at most.  Gold wasn't money because it was backed by something or had some other use, it was money because it had the properties of good money.  I know we've gone over all this before....

 

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5 hours ago, rkbabang said:

 

 

What backs gold?  What backed shells or colored rocks when people used that for money?   Money needs to have utility as money.  Which means scarcity, divisibility, very difficult to create more (BTC is almost impossible to create more), transportability, durability (doesn't break, rust, deteriorate, rot, etc over time), and verifiability against fakes.  Gold checked all of those boxes except for transportability once global international trade became a thing.   BTC checks all of those boxes and is better at most.  Gold wasn't money because it was backed by something or had some other use, it was money because it had the properties of good money.  I know we've gone over all this before....

 

 

Manhattan was also sold for about $24 of beads and trinkets, but I don't think that would work now for a global monetary system.  

 

The barter system has existed longer than currency.  But the barter system would not work efficiently on a global basis.  I've owned a chunk of a barter exchange (ITEX) and while you can trade services for services through ITEX's currency, it is not something that could be adopted on a national or global scale...simply because most of the world would not sell their products for ITEX currency, because they could not go and use it everywhere to buy what they need.

 

BTC is a derivative of barter or similar to ITEX currency.  It exists as a form of currency in a small exchange, but not one that is particularly useful on a global level.  It has also showed far more volatility than even something like ITEX currency, let alone gold or fiat currencies.  Instead of being an asset of choice during a liquidity event like commodities or treasuries, people flee BTC and other current crypto. 

 

I think investors would be better off buying the infrastructure companies around blockchain, than buying crypto itself long-term.  Own the highways, not the cars!  Cheers! 

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It is rather interesting that the debate about Bitcoin specifically is so polarizing. Inevitably it seems that one side says its a ponzi scheme and the other side will say it is the hardest form of money. Similarly, intelligent and respectable people in the investment world have similarly polarizing perspective (Buffett, Munger, Watsa vs Stahl, Miller, Drunkenmiller).

 

Money is ultimately just a social construct. It's value is dependent on other people valuing it as well. And because of this, it can change with time and space with varying degrees depending on who ultimately has control of the broader psyche/trust of the community of individuals and its value chain.

 

Parsad, you often quote that Bitcoin is backed by nothing. Yet it does take energy, computer infrastructure, land, and people and their belief in the concept. This is likely not dissimilar to government legal tender. The only difference is that the price volatility is visible with Bitcoin and the volatility in purchasing power is hidden with respect to legal tender. 

 

I'm just trying to keep an open mind to the possibilities. Is it not the credo of value investors to find nuances in reality that conventional wisdom brushes aside? Perhaps viewing Bitcoin from only from a financial lens is incomplete and that integrating it with a sociological/behavioral and non-developed world perspective would provide a better understanding of its potential. 

 

Just my 2 CAD cents (or 92 satoshis).

Edited by jfan
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My view since like 12 years old is that gold is bullshit and only worth what someone else will pay. And it’s within the same framework where you can see how bitcoin works or doesn’t work. Something just has to be widely accepted as holding value, and it does. Doesn’t have to make sense
 

I mean for all the complaining about bitcoin, what’s gold useful for on a widespread basis? How do I pay for my coffee in gold? Bring a chisel and a drug scale to the store?

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4 hours ago, Gregmal said:

I mean for all the complaining about bitcoin, what’s gold useful for on a widespread basis? How do I pay for my coffee in gold? Bring a chisel and a drug scale to the store?

Gold is the softest and most malleable of all metals so chiseling it will be very counterproductive. You could spool it and have increment markets and just cut piece when paying for coffee 🙂. This is probably the only absolute advantage that cryptocurrency has over gold is that it is divisible into whatever number you need. But the same thing could be said about any currency. Transporting gold might seem like a big deal but what gets overlooked (or taken for granted) lot of times is that there is a huge amount of infrastructure (think internet, utility, power generation) that is required to support the transport of crypto. 

 

Fun fact on gold softness, gold purity in the jewelry world is measured by kt. 24kt is 100% gold, 18kt is 18 gold: 6 other stuff, 14kt is 14 gold: 10 other stuff and so on. Other stuff controls physical properties (e.g., strength, color, etc.) You rarely see 24kt gold rings because they are too soft and can't withstand the daily wear and tear.

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We don't often agree with Mr. Wonderful, but on crypto he is quite right ....

“A much bigger player will need to collapse completely, so that it can lead to more volatility for crypto. This is a space that has never seen that kind of volatility yet, which means it’s also never seen maturation yet either.”

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-kevin-oleary-sees-more-pain-ahead-for-the-crypto-industry-as-investors/ 

 

Think o/g companies. ....

So utterly despised that not that long ago they often routinely traded at 6-10% of their peak valuation. Still despised today .... but now, they trade for a lot more than they used to 😁

 

We may dispute the merits of BTC, but same as the clap ... it is not going to go away. If you need an antidote to the zero privacy of CBDC there are few better functional alternatives. Hard to see how a patient, but enterprising lad,, doesn't make at least 3-5x on BTC over the next few years.

 

SD

 

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1 hour ago, SharperDingaan said:

We don't often agree with Mr. Wonderful, but on crypto he is quite right ....

“A much bigger player will need to collapse completely, so that it can lead to more volatility for crypto. This is a space that has never seen that kind of volatility yet, which means it’s also never seen maturation yet either.”

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-kevin-oleary-sees-more-pain-ahead-for-the-crypto-industry-as-investors/ 

 

Think o/g companies. ....

So utterly despised that not that long ago they often routinely traded at 6-10% of their peak valuation. Still despised today .... but now, they trade for a lot more than they used to 😁

 

We may dispute the merits of BTC, but same as the clap ... it is not going to go away. If you need an antidote to the zero privacy of CBDC there are few better functional alternatives. Hard to see how a patient, but enterprising lad,, doesn't make at least 3-5x on BTC over the next few years.

 

SD

 

You wouldn't consider the collapses of Terra Luna or the insolvency of Celsius to be "big" enough to qualify? 

 

Both are resulting in losses in the 10s of billions...

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13 hours ago, crs223 said:


So does DogeCoin.  And BitchCoin.  And BitchCoin Classic.

 

None of those are as safe from 51% attacks in my opinion.  Crypto currency is a winner take all proposition.  People will trust the one with the highest difficulty and the others will fail or at least forever be worth a lot less.

 

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Agreed that how people value things doesn't have to be fully rational to have worth something (eg non-transactional relationships are for the large part emotionally based). 

 

Wrt to using gold/crypto for coffee. Certainly a valid point that the friction and costs are too high for this use case. Lyn Alden was prolifically written on this subject. Her "What is Money" piece is good overview on this broad topic. I found a couple concepts such as the layers of money and bearer assets useful to think about the potential for Bitcoin specifically as well as how it compares to government legal tender.

 

Also agreed with the point that the Bitcoin pandora box is open and it is less likely to be able to be put back in. I did ask at the Helios Fairfax Partners meeting about their view on crypto in Africa and found their response to be more open than I expected. They said that digital currencies have potential given that lack of stable infrastructure and general distrust of their governments. They also surmised that CBDCs won't likely have massive adoption due to their low confidence in their politicians. That said, historically, governments will probably do all that is in their power to limit the adoption of private money, China being a good example.

 

Will BTC be a 3-5x in a few years? Maybe or maybe not. Drunkenmiller quotes in a recent interview with John Collision that Gold will do well in a stagflation but BTC will do better in an inflationary but growing economy. Longer term who knows but there are possible outcomes where it could be worth a lot more. For those willing to expose themselves to the right tail of outcomes, it could provide a meaningful return. 

 

Finally, as to the volatility, don't value investors keep themselves that the price charts wiggles and beta coefficients, don't necessary represent intrinsic worth and that the things should be evaluated on a 5-10 year time frame.

 

 

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39 minutes ago, rkbabang said:

 

None of those are as safe from 51% attacks in my opinion.  Crypto currency is a winner take all proposition.  People will trust the one with the highest difficulty and the others will fail or at least forever be worth a lot less.

 

 

That assumes all different crypto currencies are intended for the same use case which doesn't have to be the case. There are three supposed uses for cryptocurrency that I've heard of:


1. As a form of currency. (So far this is clearly not the case and honestly who knows if it will ever happen.)

2. As a store of value a.k.a. digital gold. (Bitcoin looks to be the clear winner on this front. Its functionality makes it a great store of value but pretty terrible for the use case below.)

3. As an infrastructure to develop applications for decentralized verification. (This is where most of the competition in the crypto space is happening, web3, etc.)

 

If you want to speculate on the value of digital gold you're welcome to. If you want to try to evaluate the value of various crypto currencies as a platform for applications you can do that too. It's pretty clear at this point that crypto isn't going away and it's also clear that it was/is still in a bubble based on its current use cases.

Edited by Kupotea
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Just to throw some numbers out ....

 

BTC-USD peak was about USD 61,308. If 6-10% of 'peak' is the eventual expectation .., BTC-USD is 3.700-6,200. If BTC-USD falls to 16% of 'peak' (average guestimate is 50% too aggressive), BTC-USD falls to roughly USD 9,800. Obviously, to get from USD 22,000 to USD 9,800 - a black swan or two need to show up.

 

Spectacular stable coin failure. Occasionally even a CB doesn't have the reserves to maintain a currency peg (Bank of England/Soros). Stable coin organizations are only as good as the quantity and quality of the collateral ,,,,,,

 

ETF/Whale failure. Underlying a great many crypto ETFs is a derivative transferring beneficial ownership of the whale holding to the ETF. Somebody, somewhere, has a margin call large enough  that a whale has to sell part of their holding ..., loss of confidence, along with a deluge of supply all hitting the market at once .....

 

BTC futures/options . The pricing mechanism between spot and future is well known, and works both ways. The option market is institutional, came into being after the famed USD 20,089 peak, and is (as a new market) abnormally lucrative ..... directionally push the futures price, to push the spot price? and widen your put gains?  

 

Lot of other, more subtle possibilities as well, but the point should be clear. With so many ways to die, and all of them swarming the industry, it is inevitable that some of them are going to hit. As as the hits mount... the decline accelerates. Creative destruction.

 

Most would argue that a buy at 10,000, in anticipation of a sale at 50,000 in a few years, is not a big risk. ETH requires a gas fee to use it, BTC will increasingly require buyer/seller to split the mining fee - and pay in Satoshi. BTC trades at a much more stable 100M x the price of a Satoshi. 

 

Not a bad thing.

 

SD

 

 

Edited by SharperDingaan
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2 minutes ago, Kupotea said:

 

That assumes all different crypto currencies are intended for the same use case which doesn't have to be the case. There are three supposed uses for cryptocurrency that I've heard of:


1. As a form of currency. (So far this is clearly not the case and honestly who knows if it will ever happen.)

2. As a store of value a.k.a. digital gold. (Bitcoin looks to be the clear winner on this front. Its functionality makes it a great store of value but pretty terrible for the use case below.)

3. As an infrastructure to develop applications for decentralized verification. (This is where most of the competition in the crypto space is happening, web3, etc.)

 

If you want to speculate on the value of digital gold you're welcome to. If you want to try to evaluate the value of various crypto currencies as a platform for applications you can do that too. It's pretty clear at this point that crypto isn't going away and it's also clear that it was/is still in a bubble based on its current use cases.

 

 

BTC will win #2 there is almost no doubt in my mind about that.  I think #1 will be a layer 2 solution backed by BTC.  The lightning network or something like it, maybe many competing solutions.  There is no reason to pay for a cup of coffee with an on-chain transaction.  Making large purchases on-chain will make sense, storing large sums of value on chain will make sense, but for everyday spending faster, less secure off-chain method will work just fine.

 

#3 is something entirely different from a store of value or a currency, and there will be a lot of competition in that space.  Here too I think the most critical/valuable smart contracts will involve BTC, but most lower value financial contracts and non financial web3 (and web3+) applications will not need the security and cost of the BTC blockchain and there will be a lot of competition in this area for different mixes of privacy, security, speed, reliability, functionality, etc....   As you said most of the competition is in this area already, no one takes the pure store of value alt-coins seriously even now.

 

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36 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

Just to throw some numbers out ....

 

BTC-USD peak was about USD 61,308. If 6-10% of 'peak' is the eventual expectation .., BTC-USD is 3.700-6,200. If BTC-USD falls to 16% of 'peak' (average guestimate is 50% too aggressive), BTC-USD falls to roughly USD 9,800. Obviously, to get from USD 22,000 to USD 9,800 - a black swan or two need to show up.

 

Spectacular stable coin failure. Occasionally even a CB doesn't have the reserves to maintain a currency peg (Bank of England/Soros). Stable coin organizations are only as good as the quantity and quality of the collateral ,,,,,,

 

ETF/Whale failure. Underlying a great many crypto ETFs is a derivative transferring beneficial ownership of the whale holding to the ETF. Somebody, somewhere, has a margin call large that a whale has to sell part of their holding ..., loss of confidence, along with a deluge of supply all hitting the market at once .....

 

BTC futures/options . The pricing mechanism between spot and future is well known, and works both ways. The option market is institutional, came into being after the famed USD 20,089 peak, and is (as a new market) abnormally lucrative ..... directionally push the futures price, to push the spot price? and widen your put gains?  

 

Lot of other, more subtle possibilities as well, but the point should be clear. With so many ways to die, and all of them swarming the industry, it is inevitable that some of them are going to hit. As as the hits mount... the decline accelerates. Creative destruction.

 

Not a bad thing.

 

SD

 

 

 

If you want to use past numbers to predict the future you could  look at the last 3 high to low cycles you have:

 

  1. High of about $1100 in 2013 to a low of about $200 in 2015.
  2. High of about $20K in 2017 to a low of about $3200 in 2018.
  3. High of about $68K in 2021 to a low of ?? in ??.


The first one dropped about 82% in 2 years, then recovered to a new high about 100X the low and 18X the previous high in 2 more years.

The second one dropped about 84% in 1 year, then recovered to a new high about 21X the low and 3.4X the previous high in about 3 years.


If the 3rd cycle sees a drop of 80-85% you should see a low of about $10.2K-$13.6K and the next high could be maybe double the previous one. Say ~$140K in 3 or 4 years.  That would be a 10X-14X return from the low and a 6X-7X return from here.


 

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16 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

There is nothing backing BTC...no utility, no tax revenues, no assets, no gold, no fiat currency...only scarcity.  If something is scarce, but has no utility and value...what is it worth?  How much would you pay for peanut shells if there were no peanuts?  But even peanut shells has some use as ground up filler, compost, etc.  BTC has nothing...nada, zilch, zero value or utility.  

 

Blockchain is real!  It will be the next wave of disruption over the next 20 years.  There will be future digital currencies using blockchain.  I just don't see the current batch being the winner, and if there is one, it's probably something that hasn't been created yet or no one is paying attention to. 

 

But hey, I thought rap music was a fad back in the 90's!  🙂  Cheers! 

 

9 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

Manhattan was also sold for about $24 of beads and trinkets, but I don't think that would work now for a global monetary system.  

 

The barter system has existed longer than currency.  But the barter system would not work efficiently on a global basis.  I've owned a chunk of a barter exchange (ITEX) and while you can trade services for services through ITEX's currency, it is not something that could be adopted on a national or global scale...simply because most of the world would not sell their products for ITEX currency, because they could not go and use it everywhere to buy what they need.

 

BTC is a derivative of barter or similar to ITEX currency.  It exists as a form of currency in a small exchange, but not one that is particularly useful on a global level.  It has also showed far more volatility than even something like ITEX currency, let alone gold or fiat currencies.  Instead of being an asset of choice during a liquidity event like commodities or treasuries, people flee BTC and other current crypto. 

 

I think investors would be better off buying the infrastructure companies around blockchain, than buying crypto itself long-term.  Own the highways, not the cars!  Cheers! 

 

It's always a barting, what makes a currency better than another is its network.

 

Bitcoin is the highway, backed by energy.

Edited by Dave86ch
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45 minutes ago, rkbabang said:

 

 

BTC will win #2 there is almost no doubt in my mind about that.  I think #1 will be a layer 2 solution backed by BTC.  The lightning network or something like it, maybe many competing solutions.  There is no reason to pay for a cup of coffee with an on-chain transaction.  Making large purchases on-chain will make sense, storing large sums of value on chain will make sense, but for everyday spending faster, less secure off-chain method will work just fine.

 

#3 is something entirely different from a store of value or a currency, and there will be a lot of competition in that space.  Here too I think the most critical/valuable smart contracts will involve BTC, but most lower value financial contracts and non financial web3 (and web3+) applications will not need the security and cost of the BTC blockchain and there will be a lot of competition in this area for different mixes of privacy, security, speed, reliability, functionality, etc....   As you said most of the competition is in this area already, no one takes the pure store of value alt-coins seriously even now.

 

 

+1 agree with everything said here

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11 minutes ago, rkbabang said:

 

If you want to use past numbers to predict the future you could  look at the last 3 high to low cycles you have:

 

  1. High of about $1100 in 2013 to a low of about $200 in 2015.
  2. High of about $20K in 2017 to a low of about $3200 in 2018.
  3. High of about $68K in 2021 to a low of ?? in ??.


The first one dropped about 82% in 2 years, then recovered to a new high about 100X the low and 18X the previous high in 2 more years.

The second one dropped about 84% in 1 year, then recovered to a new high about 21X the low and 3.4X the previous high in about 3 years.


If the 3rd cycle sees a drop of 80-85% you should see a low of about $10.2K-$13.6K and the next high could be maybe double the previous one. Say ~$140K in 3 or 4 years.  That would be a 10X-14X return from the low and a 6X-7X return from here.


 

 

I'm not going to say we can't drop more seeing as the current drawdown has already surprised. But should the correction not be somewhat proportionate to the boom? 

 

This last 'boom' was way more shallow than prior ones so should we be expecting the same 80+% correction or are we already nearing the bottom at 60-70% because it was a much more tame rally without an extraordinary blow off top that 2013 and 2017 both had? 

 

Not to mention from an S-curve growth perspective it seems like Bitcoin adoption is hitting the start of its vertical acceleration with countries, asset manager, payment processors, etc all taking it seriously now versus the prior 2 cycles. 

Edited by TwoCitiesCapital
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2 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

I'm not going to say we can't drop more seeing as the current drawdown has already surprised. But should the correction not be somewhat proportionate to the boom? 

 

This last 'boom' was way more shallow than prior ones so should we be expecting the same 80+% correction or are we already nearing the bottom at 60-70% because it was a much more tame rally without an extraordinary blow off top that 2013 and 2017 both had? 

Yeah, I wish I had an answer for that.  An N of 2.5 is not a large enough set to make predictions from.  We could already be at the bottom or we could get surprises in one or both directions.

 

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BTC is very different from all the other shit coins out there and adoption is happening worldwide. I strongly believe it will become the currency of the internet and fuel a global economy. The rules are written. It is truly decentralized. You cant change the rules of the game as long as I hold a node. 

 

Parsads comments about blockchain being real and useful and shaping the future. IMO thats all the Ethereum side of things. ETH, AVAX, SOL are are all serious Layer 1 projects that will shape future blockchain business transactions. The "currency" value of these I believe is pretty bleh. I have small money staked (mining POS) in these just to cover transaction fees. 

 

Totally different worlds. 

 

All the stable coins failing are people bending the rules of the game and abusing the system. Never trusted a get rich quick scheme. 

 

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  1. Quote

     

    1. High of about $1100 in 2013 to a low of about $200 in 2015.
    2. High of about $20K in 2017 to a low of about $3200 in 2018.
    3. High of about $68K in 2021 to a low of ?? in ??.

     

     

Ive seen several sources expecting the $12K mark.  Ive personally just been dollar costing into it and dont really care about current value. 

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53 minutes ago, rkbabang said:

 

If you want to use past numbers to predict the future you could  look at the last 3 high to low cycles you have:

 

  1. High of about $1100 in 2013 to a low of about $200 in 2015.
  2. High of about $20K in 2017 to a low of about $3200 in 2018.
  3. High of about $68K in 2021 to a low of ?? in ??.


The first one dropped about 82% in 2 years, then recovered to a new high about 100X the low and 18X the previous high in 2 more years.

The second one dropped about 84% in 1 year, then recovered to a new high about 21X the low and 3.4X the previous high in about 3 years.


If the 3rd cycle sees a drop of 80-85% you should see a low of about $10.2K-$13.6K and the next high could be maybe double the previous one. Say ~$140K in 3 or 4 years.  That would be a 10X-14X return from the low and a 6X-7X return from here.


 

 

Agreed.

Whether the entry point is 8,000 or 14,000 is just a number. The key point is a entry price lower than it is today, and an exit price a lot higher. Our 50K number assumes a mining cost of 5,000 Satoshi for USD 2.50 - or USD 0.0005/Satoshi x 100M = USD 50K/BTC. Theoretically, the more mainstream BTC becomes the greater the transactional demand for Satoshi, the higher the price, and the higher the end value of a BTC. The actual value N years in the future? .... anyone's guess.

 

SD

 

 

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