Whats The Deal With The Jobs Market?

[SharperDingaan]

Forgiveness is great, but when the probability is very unknown, or close to zero - not really a viable option.

Working part time also allows he/she to spend the money on whatever they want, whereas loans give you a lot less 'flexibility'.

 

Assume the average waiter would wait 4 tables/hr, 3 people/table @ $40/plate, 75% of the time; table turn every 2 hours, average 10% tip.

The average tip will be around $18/hr (4 x 3 x40 x .50 x .75 x .10). Restaurant pay of $35.73/hr+ (18.00+17.73), versus just $17.73/hr for the fast food job. 

Were the waiter/waitress to raise the average tip to 15% vs 10%? an extra $9/hr, were they to raise the average plate to $45 vs $40? an extra $2.25/hr. 

In a university/college town - the fast food franchise just isn't competitive.

 

The little desirable labour that you might get .... is also mostly the same labour that a family owned restaurant would use.

You have it only until the family starts its own restaurant, selling better quality and healthier fare - without the franchise fee rake, off of gross sales.

There is a reason why service in a fast food franchise is often so sh1te. 

 

Hence, if you are a good enough manager to still make a fast food franchise work, despite the disadvantages - why on earth stay with it?

Just about any chain will pay you very well for your expertise, and you will ALSO be free of the daily financial risk of the fast food franchise failing.

There is a reason why managers are leaving in droves.

 

Different POV.

 

SD

Edited September 12, 2021 by SharperDingaan

[fareastwarriors]

What's going on in Canada? 

[SharperDingaan]

1 hour ago, fareastwarriors said:

What's going on in Canada? 

Similar frustrations as in the US. Big difference is that we now have vaccine passports to prove double vaccination, allow restaurants to refuse entry to those without proof, and permit up to 100% capacity (critical as it gets colder, and the outdoor patios close). Permits better economics and a better work environment, but in both Quebec and Ontario - the rollouts are < a month old. Most expect restaurants to share a bouncer, cracking the skulls of those who refuse to follow the rules.

 

The numbers are 'near-actuals' and come from students working in the GTA west. In the smaller university towns surrounding the GTA there typically aren't many fast food franchises - it's mostly independents serving plain and basic to the student market, in a variety of home cuisines. Typically very good, and all family affairs.

 

Drilling companies are having difficulties staffing rigs, comps are up materially, and day rates have risen 20-30% to compensate. Lot of experienced junior crew choosing to go back to school and study for another career, similar thing with the truckers moving equipment and field supplies. Folks are seeing the writing on the wall and going into more stable industries instead. The good news is that if you can drill hard/heavy (camps, 12 hrs on, 12 hours off, 7 days/week) over late December through earlyJanuary, you WILL have additional crew. You'll just be paying double/triple time, during prime drilling time.

 

SD

 

 

[Gregmal]

https://www.route-fifty.com/management/2021/09/deploying-national-guard-fill-school-bus-driver-shortage/185357/

 

Poor people willing to work are gonna get paid soon. Wages have to go up. I did a brief errand run yesterday and lazily tabulated that out of the 3-4 dozen stores I passed, probably 70-80% had help wanted signs up. 

[SharperDingaan]

The market solution is that prices throughout the supply chain rise, and the volumes decline - as the end product becomes unaffordable. Accelerating economic contraction as end users progressively collapse, and suppliers successively exit the chain. Not a happy place to be.

 

SD

  

[ERICOPOLY]

3 hours ago, Gregmal said:

https://www.route-fifty.com/management/2021/09/deploying-national-guard-fill-school-bus-driver-shortage/185357/

 

Poor people willing to work are gonna get paid soon. Wages have to go up. I did a brief errand run yesterday and lazily tabulated that out of the 3-4 dozen stores I passed, probably 70-80% had help wanted signs up. 

 

The $15 minimum wage mandate is going to be a joke.

[SharperDingaan]

Effective 12/31.2021, the Canadian federal minimum wage is $15/hr. 

Each Canadian province is different, but the Ontario minimum wage will shortly be $14.35/hr - following a 10c/hr increase.

https://www.blg.com/en/insights/2021/07/the-15-dollar-question-how-to-prepare-for-the-new-federal-minimum-wage

https://www.ontario.ca/document/your-guide-employment-standards-act-0/minimum-wage

 

Provinces argue that raising minimum wage both costs the poor jobs, and closes small businesses. It's better to permit exploitation, than pay a living wage.

Most in the G-7 recognize that like it or not, guaranteed minimum income is coming, and that it will set the floor minimum wage/hr (annual income/50 wks x 37.5 hr/wk). The objections are because this will materially increase the minimum wage/hr, close many small businesses, and clash with workaholic 996 culture. Essentially, the same arguments that were made by US plantation owners ahead of the abolishment of slavery. 

 

Covid has changed everything.

As supports fall away, a great many small businesses will become statistics, with minimal impact on employment stats (no workers). Following which those former business owners will be clamouring for the guaranteed minimum income. You and I will be paying more for what we buy, and buying less because we dont have the money. Provinces &/or states either get with the program, or suffer new leadership. Disruptive change.

 

Not a bad thing, but essentially another Roosevelt type 'new deal'.

End of a way-of-life for many.

 

SD  

   

[JRM]

16 hours ago, ERICOPOLY said:

 

The $15 minimum wage mandate is going to be a joke.

 

lol, the joke is that a loaf of bread will be $15.

[ERICOPOLY]

Last week I tried to get a wire transfer done at my local Wells Fargo branch and they didn't have a banker on-site that could handle it for me.  They called another branch and still nobody, then at a 3rd branch they were able to tell me that the branch manager could handle it for me (and that's what happened).

 

I asked them what is going on, and they said they have 2 job postings and have only had 2 applications in 2 months, whereas normally they get 40 applications for each job.

Edited November 22, 2021 by ERICOPOLY

[Spekulatius]

5 minutes ago, ERICOPOLY said:

Last week I tried to get a wire transfer done at my local Wells Fargo branch and they didn't have a banker on-site that could handle it for me.  They called another branch and still nobody, then at a 3rd branch they were able to tell me that the branch manager could handle it for me (and that's what happened).

 

I asked them what is going on, and they said they have 2 job postings and have only had 2 applications in 2 months, whereas normally they get 40 applications for each job.

LOL, I had a similar experience years back in 2018 with Wells. I had to do one large wire transfer to buy my house. Their branch is more than one hour away in CT (they closed the few branches in MA) so I made an appointment and yet when I arrived at the Hartford branch the fellow doing these wires wasn't there. Then finally the Branch manager was kind enough to do it for me. Took me more than 1 hour to get a job done that should take 5 minutes at most. I closed my accounts with them shortly thereafter.

 

OK n=1 sample size but again they used to have excellent customer service when I banked with them in CA and it has been downhill for a decade at least back then.

[SharperDingaan]

It's an undesirable branch land job, a less desirable employer, and poorly paid - the labour pool is just voting with its feet ...

Most people still need to work, benefits have/are running out, yet the best they could do is 2 applicants in 2 months? It must be offering a truly sh1te comp package!

 

Inflation is here, it's aggressive, and the dinosours are in denial.

Relative to most other employers, bank benefits are already very good, so .... if Wells actually wants to hire staff, it's going to have to offer a lot higher pay.

Inflation.

 

SD

 

 

Edited November 22, 2021 by SharperDingaan

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, SharperDingaan said:

It's an undesirable branch land job, a less desirable employer, and poorly paid - the labour pool is just voting with its feet ...

Most people still need to work, benefits have/are running out, yet the best they could do is 2 applicants in 2 months? It must be offering a truly sh1te comp package!

 

Inflation is here, it's aggressive, and the dinosours are in denial.

Relative to most other employers, bank benefits are already very good, so .... if Wells actually wants to hire staff, it's going to have to offer a lot higher pay.

Inflation.

 

SD

 

 

 

1 hour ago, SharperDingaan said:

It's an undesirable branch land job, a less desirable employer, and poorly paid - the labour pool is just voting with its feet ...

Most people still need to work, benefits have/are running out, yet the best they could do is 2 applicants in 2 months? It must be offering a truly sh1te comp package!

 

Inflation is here, it's aggressive, and the dinosours are in denial.

Relative to most other employers, bank benefits are already very good, so .... if Wells actually wants to hire staff, it's going to have to offer a lot higher pay.

Inflation.

 

SD

 

 

I think we are looking at the golden age of automating services. Restaurants, retail, banks, insurance  etc. will all need to be able to operate with much less employees.

[Gregmal]

Yea at a certain point though you can either get raped by the politicians or you can play ball by paying people more in wages while looking good for doing it, AKA the Costco approach. If Wells or MacDonalds tries to automate everything, they will be destroyed via taxation and reputational damage. So it cant happen too quickly. 

 

Separately, my own Wells story. Have one right in town. Went there to open a tenant saving account for one of my properties. Got there at 1 or so. Was told that the person who opens those accounts was over at her desk. After 5 minutes of watching her yap on the phone I am told that she is going on her lunch break and that I could come back in an hour. I asked if anyone else could help and was told the only other person who could do this was not in. Went next door to Chase and the private client lady did everything for me in under 10 minutes. 

[Spekulatius]

48 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Yea at a certain point though you can either get raped by the politicians or you can play ball by paying people more in wages while looking good for doing it, AKA the Costco approach. If Wells or MacDonalds tries to automate everything, they will be destroyed via taxation and reputational damage. So it cant happen too quickly. 

 

Separately, my own Wells story. Have one right in town. Went there to open a tenant saving account for one of my properties. Got there at 1 or so. Was told that the person who opens those accounts was over at her desk. After 5 minutes of watching her yap on the phone I am told that she is going on her lunch break and that I could come back in an hour. I asked if anyone else could help and was told the only other person who could do this was not in. Went next door to Chase and the private client lady did everything for me in under 10 minutes. 

LOL, that's like a DMV experience. I guess they went from " we open accounts for you without knowing" towards  " in order to open an account, you need to run through a no man's land with toxic gas from their IT system, mortar & artillery from compliance and targeted machine gun fire from tellers. Good luck and may have have god mercy with your soul".

 

 

 

 

 

[SharperDingaan]

In the manufacturing sector, 'Just-In-Time' introduced lean manufacturing; driving productivity through the roof by cutting inventory. obsolence/wastage. and labour reliability/usage via robotics. As long as you had repetitive unchanging tasks, and volume - automation was an obvious choice. In the service sector, blockchain/smart contracts do the same thing.

 

In the banking sector, defi apps do almost everything a branch does - cheaper, faster, with broader reach and more consistent service. At most, we need maybe 1 in 7 seven existing branches, that exist just for the big items; processing centers where you sign your mortgage, etc - one cental location, costs split between 2-3 banks. Today's 'old folks' insisting upon using branches, using nursing homes in < 10 years. Branches as melting ice cubes.  

 

Lean manufacturing works best if you have free trade, and secure robust supply chains. It's a great solution 80% of the time, and much of the displaced workforce went to services. We've since discovered that its not so hot the remaining 20% of the time ..... and it remains a mystery as to what we do with the resultant millions of displaced service workers. Guaranteed minimum income is raised for a reason, as everyone starting their own little businesses - is cummulatively just not the same thing.

 

Tech is starting to bite, and employers just have no idea.

Opportunites 

 

SD

 

Edited November 22, 2021 by SharperDingaan

[ERICOPOLY]

5 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

It's an undesirable branch land job, a less desirable employer, and poorly paid - the labour pool is just voting with its feet ...

 

Qualifications:  

experience:  zero

education:  high school

 

 

[Gregmal]

8 minutes ago, ERICOPOLY said:

 

Qualifications:  

experience:  zero

education:  high school

 

 

Thats probably more than enough for a lot of finance jobs in general LOL. I have never really gotten along with the finance professional types. Mainly because they are egomaniacs(or also lifelong dorks who now seek revenge on the world for not recognizing their master of the universe status until they started making big $$) who think that because they make a lot of money they are more important than everyone else. Take themselves too seriously and have a sense of entitlement through the roof. And for me, one of the first things I learned is not to respect someone just cuz they have money(or make a lot of money).

 

Realistically, if you opened the doors to people without the "elitist" qualifications, you'd solve a lot of problems. I am not even kidding when I say this but I would wager big money that even the dudes who pump gas, many 20-30% of them, with some modest training, could do most of the financial industry jobs. They'd do it for less than 6 figures for sure. Or you could pay them what the Ivy Leaguers get if you desire. But theres a certain floodgate you open by doing it. I believe its coming. The lower rung jobs are a waste for qualified people. You dont need a 4 year degree to do half the finance jobs out there, let alone work at a bank and open accounts. The higher rung jobs are guarded like a secret society. Big tech now is more appealing if you're going to get screwed with long hours. Financial industry is going to be forced to change. 

[Gregmal]

Like take analysts for example, do you really need a high level education or a stupid CFA/MBA to wait for something to make a big move AND THEN use some elementary DCF based model to "Adjust" a price target to basically +/-20% of where the shares now trade? Does doing this really need to pay $150-200k? to do this? 

 

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3773445-hedge-funds-walk-away-from-peloton-amid-post-covid-decline-and-52-week-lows

 

Short low, cover high, buy higher, sell low....

 

This shit is the biggest scam secret out there and its largely been hidden because its how friends/family in the gold old boys club keep wealth circulating. Like most family offices are basically wealth transfer schemes. Desk jobs at local banks are basically where the local RIA guys family friends work. Once the veil gets removed your aspiring college kids realize a 4 year education to ultimately do paper shuffling and deal with complaints about $35 overdrafts fees for $55k-65k is a joke. They are going to have to either start letting the burger flipper types do it or theres not going to be anyone left to do these jobs. To make up for it they're going to cut the absurdly paying boy's club jobs. Same is true with insurance agencies. 

 

 

[mcliu]

It seems like a lot of retail banking can be automated.. Maybe the only reason there are still bank branches is to cater to legacy customers.. 

 

Capital markets/commercial banking would be harder to automate. A lot of custom solutions. I don't think your average "gas guy" can do these jobs.

[Gregmal]

Yea but then the question on the commercial and capital markets side is do you really need these dopes making mid 6 and 7 figures doing what is essentially advanced paper pushing? 
 

I’m currently working with a management company to secure a 7 figure loan for some needed projects at a planned community. Looking at 15-20 year loans. Spoke with a half dozen different banks and at each one I could write down on paper what their “commercial lending” guru looks and acts like. Not even the lame suits and purposely showy watches and whatnot, but just the predictable nature of what they’re all about. The “oh here comes the pitch in why this product is better LOL” stuff. And then thinking, this guy should be embarrassed to wear that watch. And OMG he makes what? And goes on 3-4 vacations a year? To do this? And the absurdity that 98% of people have zero shot at ever being considered for a job like his even though most would be able to do it just as well??? It’s one of the last remaining clubs out there but with all other margins getting squeezed I think it comes under pressure over the next decade. IBKR I also think does a good job highlighting how you can cut much of the fat on the capital markets side. Sooo much money gets wasted on fat and I think the reason so many of these places are so diametrically opposed to crypto and AI is simply because it Amazon’s their business and exposes how redundant most of them are.

[Morgan]

5 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Yea at a certain point though you can either get raped by the politicians or you can play ball by paying people more in wages while looking good for doing it, AKA the Costco approach. If Wells or MacDonalds tries to automate everything, they will be destroyed via taxation and reputational damage. So it cant happen too quickly. 

 

Separately, my own Wells story. Have one right in town. Went there to open a tenant saving account for one of my properties. Got there at 1 or so. Was told that the person who opens those accounts was over at her desk. After 5 minutes of watching her yap on the phone I am told that she is going on her lunch break and that I could come back in an hour. I asked if anyone else could help and was told the only other person who could do this was not in. Went next door to Chase and the private client lady did everything for me in under 10 minutes. 

God, that is just plain stupid business.
 

Always support the customer. Sometimes you don’t get to eat because you’re too busy. And always take the money if a customer offers it! Jeez. 

[SharperDingaan]

It is a very simple thing to make a ETH based stable coin pay out a formula driven monthly distribution -you get the equivalent of a fully automated securitization. Make the stable coin the securitization trust, make each token a proprtionate interest in the trust, make a smart contract pay the distribution, set up a private market 'exchange' to facilitate token liquidity, and locate the whole thing offshore. Contract out the bulk of asset purchase/disposition, populate the trust via direct feeds. minimize the human touch.  A great many people currently working in securitization permanently dissapear.

 

The CFA/CPA/MBA's discover that the road to wealth is via building real businesses, NOT by trading bits of paper.

The various robber barons of old were all scum, outright bastards, and masters at manipulation - but almost every one of them also ran real busuness, and used them to create monopolies wherever they could. Wealth made by building real businesses, making competitors offers they cannot refuse, and greasing the odd wheel here and there - that also built the wealth of the community around them. Customers had to be able to afford your goods/services!

 

Interesting times coming up!

 

SD

Edited November 23, 2021 by SharperDingaan

[Spekulatius]

23 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

It is a very simple thing to make a ETH based stable coin pay out a formula driven monthly distribution -you get the equivalent of a fully automated securitization. Make the stable coin the securitization trust, make each token a proprtionate interest in the trust, make a smart contract pay the distribution, set up a private market 'exchange' to facilitate token liquidity, and locate the whole thing offshore. Contract out the bulk of asset purchase/disposition, populate the trust via direct feeds. minimize the human touch,  A great many people currently working in securitization permanently dissapear.

 

The CFA/CPA/MBA's discover that the road to wealth is via building real businesses, NOT by trading bits of paper.

The various robber barons of old were all scum, outright bastards, and masters at manipulation - but almost every one of them also ran real busuness, and used them to create monopolies wherever they could. Wealth made by building real businesses, making competitors offers they cannot refuse, and greasing the odd wheel here and there - that also built the wealth of the community around them. Customers had to be able to afford your goods/services!

 

Interesting times coming up!

 

SD

Just look at what happened with the Constitution DAO - they are getting killed with million $ on gas fees for what seems like a simple transaction. Using ETH as a transaction facilitating system does not seem ready by along shot, it is just too complex and expensive.

 

Those that are saying look ETH price is going up missing the fact that gas fees tend to go up with the ETH price, making it even less useful. It's all by design:

 

[Gregmal]

Needham analysts Vincent Yu adjusts BABA price target from $330 to $230. Quite timely. Wonder how much this guy makes?

 

EDIT: ZM too!

 

Keybank $398 to $344, maintains overweight

 

Guggenheim $370 to $300, maintains buy?

 

Barclays $270 to $245

 

 

None of these guys had this "inkling"ahead of the stock falling off a cliff? Useless fools. Bet they all make over $150k a year too. 

Edited November 23, 2021 by Gregmal

[SharperDingaan]

Vitalic (ETH) is just being smart - do the same as you were using our token, and save 30%. Sure I could save you 80% but why be an idiot and give the 50% away? More people using ETH the richer Vitalic gets, same as the old-fashioned robber barron.

 

BITGOLD, SALT, and a great many others don't have a problem. If you choose to do it via private ledger, you don't even need ETH.

Common practice in growing parts of the Caymans, Bahamas, Gibralta, and Maltese communities - with staff typically on a 4-6 week rotation. Spend what it takes, buy the best tech/people/etc, create the structure, get out of the way. Nice gig if you can get it!

 

SD

 

Edited November 23, 2021 by SharperDingaan